Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kimberling City, MO
May 2, 2024 10:23 AM CDT (15:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM Moonset 12:56 PM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 021109 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 609 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain is expected to begin around 6-10 AM for areas west of Hwy 65 and spread east through the day. Rain will diminish west to east after 7 PM tonight.
- The best chance for strong to marginally severe storms will be in the late morning to early afternoon hours.
- The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend and early next week with highest rain chances on Saturday.
- Temperatures will remain above average through at least the next seven days.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
There are currently two MCS features happening over the Central Plains region, and neither of them are currently impacting the SGF CWA One MCS is moving through southeastern NE and northeastern KS. The other is making its way through central OK.
However, both MCS features are expected to impact us within the next few hours. A shortwave sneaks underneath a weak 500mb ridge over MO late this morning as well. The MCS's and the shortwave will allow instability to develop ahead of an incoming weak surface cold front. Initial convection will be produced by the southern MCS that will be moving into our area. Once convection is initiated, models have a line of thunderstorms filling in feeding off of the northern MCS moving through north-central MO. Right now, have POPs starting to trend upward after 7 AM and trend downward after 7 PM this evening. Though, rain could end early if the front moves through quicker than anticipated.
As far as thunderstorm potential, there are still model discrepancies for today on how widespread the thunderstorms will be. SPC has our entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Only a couple of the CAMs this morning have a decent handle on MCS activity. The greatest chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will occur late this morning into the early afternoon hours. MUCAPE values are around 700-1500 J/kg for this time period with the highest values occurring over central MO. As soon as the shortwave moves out of the area, convection begins to die down. The incoming weak cold front won't provide enough forcing to sustain severe-level convection through the rest of the day. Though, showers still may occur with a few rumbles of thunder until the cold front completely passes through our area.
As for QPF, rainfall totals will be around 0.5 to 1 inch with localized higher amounts up to 2 inches over central MO. With the over-saturated soils, remember that flash flooding may still occur in low-lying areas even with this amount of rainfall.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are chances for rain everyday through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday through Wednesday. The entire area is in a general risk for severe weather both on Friday and Saturday. So far, no outlook has been posted by SPC for Sunday.
However, by Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough begins to move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another round of severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and timing, but SPC does have our western counties in KS in a Day 5 outlook for a 15% chance for severe weather. CIPS and CSU guidance also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another day to keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing signs of possible severe weather occuring over southern MO. May has started...severe weather season is here. Make sure to stay up to date with the forecast especially as the start of the next work week creeps closer.
As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to monitor for additional flooding in the coming days.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Expect scattered thunderstorms throughout the day with MVFR ceilings. Heavy rain could reduce visibilities down to 3 to 4 SM at times as well. Expect rain to taper off this evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible tonight.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 609 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain is expected to begin around 6-10 AM for areas west of Hwy 65 and spread east through the day. Rain will diminish west to east after 7 PM tonight.
- The best chance for strong to marginally severe storms will be in the late morning to early afternoon hours.
- The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend and early next week with highest rain chances on Saturday.
- Temperatures will remain above average through at least the next seven days.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
There are currently two MCS features happening over the Central Plains region, and neither of them are currently impacting the SGF CWA One MCS is moving through southeastern NE and northeastern KS. The other is making its way through central OK.
However, both MCS features are expected to impact us within the next few hours. A shortwave sneaks underneath a weak 500mb ridge over MO late this morning as well. The MCS's and the shortwave will allow instability to develop ahead of an incoming weak surface cold front. Initial convection will be produced by the southern MCS that will be moving into our area. Once convection is initiated, models have a line of thunderstorms filling in feeding off of the northern MCS moving through north-central MO. Right now, have POPs starting to trend upward after 7 AM and trend downward after 7 PM this evening. Though, rain could end early if the front moves through quicker than anticipated.
As far as thunderstorm potential, there are still model discrepancies for today on how widespread the thunderstorms will be. SPC has our entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Only a couple of the CAMs this morning have a decent handle on MCS activity. The greatest chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will occur late this morning into the early afternoon hours. MUCAPE values are around 700-1500 J/kg for this time period with the highest values occurring over central MO. As soon as the shortwave moves out of the area, convection begins to die down. The incoming weak cold front won't provide enough forcing to sustain severe-level convection through the rest of the day. Though, showers still may occur with a few rumbles of thunder until the cold front completely passes through our area.
As for QPF, rainfall totals will be around 0.5 to 1 inch with localized higher amounts up to 2 inches over central MO. With the over-saturated soils, remember that flash flooding may still occur in low-lying areas even with this amount of rainfall.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are chances for rain everyday through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday through Wednesday. The entire area is in a general risk for severe weather both on Friday and Saturday. So far, no outlook has been posted by SPC for Sunday.
However, by Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough begins to move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another round of severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and timing, but SPC does have our western counties in KS in a Day 5 outlook for a 15% chance for severe weather. CIPS and CSU guidance also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another day to keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing signs of possible severe weather occuring over southern MO. May has started...severe weather season is here. Make sure to stay up to date with the forecast especially as the start of the next work week creeps closer.
As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to monitor for additional flooding in the coming days.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Expect scattered thunderstorms throughout the day with MVFR ceilings. Heavy rain could reduce visibilities down to 3 to 4 SM at times as well. Expect rain to taper off this evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible tonight.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFWB BRANSON WEST MUNI EMERSON FIELD,MO | 4 sm | 28 min | calm | 8 sm | Clear | 72°F | 63°F | 73% | 29.85 | |
| KBBG BRANSON,MO | 16 sm | 38 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 64°F | 78% | 29.86 |
Springfield, MO,
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