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FXUS63 KSGF 041111 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 511 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

1. A couple chances for gusty winds this week.

2. A warming trend and drier weather through much of the week ahead.

3. Precipitation chances return late next week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level shortwave currently moving through the CWA. Radar showing some very light echoes over the far eastern CWA along and ahead of the front and a few echoes over central MO within the cyclonic flow around the low. Little to no measurable precipitation is occurring with these echoes.

Stratus was moving back into the area behind the front, along with gusty west winds with some gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

For the rest of the overnight hours and today: the upper shortwave will slide to the east of the area with the main precipitation area skirting the northern edge of the CWA into eastern MO.
Stratus which is currently moving into the area should gradually shift east with clearing from west to east during the late morning and afternoon. Highs will be coolest in the north and easts where the clouds will linger the longest (mid 40s to around 50). In the west some low to mid 50s are expected.

Northwest flow will continue and will bring in another quick moving upper level shortwave into the area tonight into early Tuesday morning. Clouds will increase again tonight, but the main precipitation should remain north and northeast of the CWA. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Upper level ridge of high pressure out west will begin to shift eastward over the Rockies on Tuesday. Quick northwest flow will continue over the area. Surface low will be to the east of the area with high pressure to the west giving a stronger pressure gradient over the area. As a result, some gusty northwest winds are expected on Tuesday over the area. Drier air will be moving into the area with a mostly sunny sky. The cold air advection on Tuesday will keep temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s for highs or normal to slightly below normal for this time of year.

Upper ridge will build into the plains on Wednesday with surface ridge moving over the area and to the southeast of the area by late in the day. With some low level warm advection beginning to set up over the area and plenty of sunshine, temperatures should rebound ranging from the low 50s in the east to the mid 50s in the west.

Upper ridge will shift across and east of the area on Thursday with upper flow becoming more west to southwest. Low level warm advection pattern continues and we should warm to well above normal with highs in the low to mid 60s. Strong southerly flow is expected at the surface with a surface ridge in the southeast U.S.
and low pressure in the high plains. Gusty winds over 30 mph will be possible over the CWA. NBM temperature guidance from Tuesday through Friday are in very good agreement with 25th-75th percentile range within 3 to 4 degrees during this time frame and we have high confidence in these temperatures through the week.

On Friday, an upper level wave will shift into the high plains with an area of upper level divergence settingn up in the plains into our CWA by late in the day. In addition, a 40 to 45kt low level jet is expected to develop over northern AR into southern MO with a surface front setting up along the northwest CWA. Some precipitation is expected to initiate during the late afternoon over the area.

The weekend looks to be a wet one over the area as a deep upper level trough pushes through the area along with a surface front and strong low level dynamics. There will be some MU CAPE available so will probably also have some embedded thunderstorms.
The best chances for precipitation will be on Friday night into Saturday as the front moves through (45-55%), but there may be some trailing precipitation behind the front as the upper level wave moves through. There are still some timing differences with the models/ensemble data, but with increasing confidence in rain chances during at least a part of the weekend. Colder air will move into the area behind the front, but we are expecting a mostly rain event at this time.

Temperatures on Friday should once again rise into the 60s but mostly in the 50s on Saturday and in the 40s on Sunday. Much less confidence in Saturdays temperatures with a lot of model variability as the system begins to push through the area.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 508 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Upper level shortwave was pushing into eastern Missouri early this morning with an area of stratus (IFR/MVFR) over the area behind the low. The back edge of this stratus was about to push through JLN and should move through SGF by around 14z. Generally expecting VFR conditions once it clears the area and winds should diminish to more steady conditions and shift to a more southerly direction this afternoon. Another quick moving system will move into the area tonight, but cloud cover is expected to remain VFR at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

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