Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kimberling City, MO
April 27, 2024 4:33 AM CDT (09:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 11:12 PM Moonset 7:28 AM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 270900 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Significant and dangerous severe weather is expected tonight in areas along and west of Highway 65. Greatest potential is focused along and west of I-49 where tornadoes (potentially EF2+), hail to the size of baseballs, and wind gusts up to 70 mph are all possible.
- Significant and dangerous flooding is expected in areas along and west of Highway 65 as additional heavy rain impacts the area this evening into Sunday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect from 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.
- Strong to severe weather and additional flooding is expected again Sunday into Sunday night.
- The unsettled pattern continues with additional storm chances mid to late next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Current water vapor imagery depicts a wide and deep longwave trough over the central and western CONUS with shortwave energy reaching into the Four Corners region and another impulse of shortwave energy lifting out of IA/MN. An attending surface low is also lifting NE through MN while lee cyclogenesis is initiating in the TX/OK panhandle regions. With the upper-level wave pattern keeping the jet stream and surface lows just northwest of our region, a deep warm/moist sector has been able to continue to settle into place with persistent gusty S'ly winds. With this airmass in place, lows will only drop to the lower 60s this morning with dewpoints hovering around 60-62F.
Significant and dangerous flooding is expected tonight:
Many areas have already received 2+ inches of rain in the last 72 hours. Some localized areas have received up to 3-6 inches, especially areas along I-44 and I-49. After a brief period of dry weather this morning, unfortunately more heavy rainfall is on the way for these areas that are already oversaturated with 3-6 inches of rain. This will set the stage for significant flooding potential tonight into Sunday along and west of Hwy 65, where a moderate (3/4) risk for excessive rainfall is in place.
The upper-level shortwave energy from the Four Corners region will make its way into the central Plains during the day Saturday. As it forces surface cyclogenesis across the Plains and initiates low-level warm air advection over the Midwest, the wave will amplify and become negatively tilted. This will reorient positive vorticity advection in such a way that the shortwave will stall and slowly lift NNE through Sunday.
Additionally, with the strong forcing, an impressive coupled jet feature will develop and sit over the central Plains, providing persistent strong synoptic ascent for multiple rounds of training heavy storms.
As the upper-level wave enters the region Saturday afternoon, storms will initiate in OK and lift NE into our counties along the MO/KS border. These storms will move quickly NE, but with the upper-level wave progressing slowly, the storms will train, bringing persistent heavy rain to the areas they go over. As the night progresses and synoptic support and the low-level jet amplifies, a slow-moving QLCS will move east through the same region bringing another period of prolonged rainfall. This QLCS will eventually make its way to the Hwy 65 corridor by 6-9 AM Sunday morning.
With the multiple rounds of training storms, rain totals through Sunday morning will be in the 2-4" range along and west of Hwy 65 with localized areas receiving up to 5-6 inches as suggested by the HRRR LPMMs. The area most likely for localized 5-6 inches of rain is in a corridor along the MO/KS border, including Pittsburg, KS and Nevada, MO. These locations have already received 4-6 inches and another 4-6 inches on top of that in 24-48 hours would promote significant areal, river, and flash flooding. Please pay attention to alerts during the rainfall event. Have a plan in place and remember, Turn Around, Don't Drown!
Significant and dangerous severe weather is expected today:
Each round of storms mentioned with the flooding threat will also bring a significant severe threat, especially along and west of I-49 where a moderate (4/5) risk is in place. With lower to mid-60s dewpoints already across our entire CWA, uncapped MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg will exist as early as 12 PM. High temperatures warming into the upper 70s will increase these values to 2500-3500 J/kg by late afternoon. There is some signal among the CAMs (notably the HRRR/RRFS/FV3) that showers and thunderstorms could develop in this open, uncapped warm sector late this afternoon. Averaged forecast soundings for our whole CWA during this time period depicts a mini-supercell environment with shortened, yet curved, hodographs with <20 kts of storm-relative inflow, 25-35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and 200-300 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. High RH throughout the column would also limit entrainment and support the updrafts these mini- supercells. The main uncertainty is whether anything will initiate. The warm sector will be beneath the right exit region of the jet which would work against large-scale ascent. But if storms do form, a risk for marginally severe mini-supercells would exist between 5-8PM generally along and west of Hwy 63.
These would pose a hail risk up to the size of golf balls, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and perhaps a weak tornado or two.
After 8PM, the main severe threat then ramps up, mainly along and west of I-49. Storms that form in east OK will quickly move NE into our counties along the MO/KS border by 8-10 PM.
These will quickly become a messy SW-NE oriented band of supercells and bow structures given an environment with long looping hodographs producing 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 kts and 0-3 km SRH values approaching 400 m2/s2 thanks to nocturnal enhancement of the low-level jet. This round of storms will bring the threat of all significant hazards. LCL heights below 300-500m, 250-350 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH, and >6 C/km near-surface lapse rates will promote a tornado threat, with the potential for an EF2+ (STP ranges from 2-3 with 60-70% chances to be greater than 4). Additionally, mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km with weaker shear above 1 km will promote a large hail threat up to the size of baseballs. And lastly, wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible with any bow structure and supercell.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE that these supercells will be training.
This means after one supercell moves through an area, there is still potential for another (with the same hazards) to move over that same location. Keep this in mind when making your safety plan!
As mid-level forcing for ascent and the nocturnal low-level jet increases after 10 PM, another line of storms will develop across KS/OK. This is expected to be an MCS that will slowly progress eastward through our area. This would bring the severe threat to the Springfield area by early morning (1-4AM). All hazards would be possible with this line of storms including tornadoes and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Hail will still be possible, but less likely. However, there is a scenario where the MCS is a hybrid MCS with embedded supercellular structures given 50 kt 0-1 km shear vectors feeding into the MCS rather than forcing from behind. This would enhance the hail threat within any embedded supercells. The MCS will weaken and clear the area by 7AM or so, but lingering stratiform rain will still be prevalent across the area.
Additional severe weather and flooding potential Sunday:
On Sunday, the upper-level wave pattern will have substantially slowed, keeping any surface frontal forcing to our west. This will keep the warm/moist sector across our area and bring yet again another chance for severe weather and additional flooding Sunday. Despite an expansive MCS moving through Sunday morning, relative humidity values will remain above 80%, limiting the strength of its cold pool, and allow for sufficient airmass destabilization before Sunday afternoon. Even without further warming (highs Sunday will be in the lower 70s), dewpoints remaining in the 60s will be enough for at least 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
As the core of the mid-level jet max moves over our region by mid-afternoon Sunday, another thunderstorm complex will quickly develop and nose its way up into our area. This MCS will be slightly more progressive as upper-level forcing begins to kick out of the region, but even still, PWATs in the 1.2-1.3" range will promote heavy rain within these thunderstorms. This will once again bring the threat for flooding for much of our CWA
Additionally, while the environment will be more modest than Saturday's, sufficient instability and 0-6 km shear at 40 kts and 0-1 km shear at 20-25 kts will bring the potential for severe weather within the MCS--mainly wind gusts up to 60 mph and perhaps a spinup tornado or two.
Additional storm development may occur along the cold front along the MO/KS border. Linear forcing will promote mainly a damaging wind threat, but weak low-level wind shear and an elevated mixed layer producing 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates could bring an isolated hail threat up to the size of quarters.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
After the upper-level pattern finally shifts to where the jet remains off to our north, temperatures will warm into the mid-70s Monday, and the lower 80s Tuesday/Wednesday. Lows this period will be quite mild in the mid-60s.
Additional storm chances mid to late next week:
Despite the jet being off to the north, southerly surface flow and subtle shortwave impulses rounding the longwave pattern will bring multiple chances for showers/thunderstorms next week.
Clusters still point out some timing differences, but confidence is increasing for showers/thunderstorms at least Wednesday and Thursday. PoPs are at 40-70% for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and 60-80% for Thursday. After Thursday, details become more uncertain, but a slight cooldown appears likely with highs dropping to the lower 70s and lows in the lower 50s for the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
SCT to BKN low clouds are filtering in and out of all TAF sites at the moment, bringing in brief periods of MVFR ceilings. These clouds should increase in coverage through 15Z before gradually burning off by 18Z. Winds will remain gusty out of the S with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts. A low- level jet is also presenting 45 kts of low-level wind shear, which should subside by 13-14Z.
Isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm development is possible (20-40% chance) at all TAF sites during the mid- to late afternoon hours (21-02Z). These will be most prevalent during peak heating before dissipating after sunset.
CLIMATE
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 27: KSGF: 67/1899
April 28: KSGF: 68/1896
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Significant and dangerous severe weather is expected tonight in areas along and west of Highway 65. Greatest potential is focused along and west of I-49 where tornadoes (potentially EF2+), hail to the size of baseballs, and wind gusts up to 70 mph are all possible.
- Significant and dangerous flooding is expected in areas along and west of Highway 65 as additional heavy rain impacts the area this evening into Sunday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect from 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.
- Strong to severe weather and additional flooding is expected again Sunday into Sunday night.
- The unsettled pattern continues with additional storm chances mid to late next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Current water vapor imagery depicts a wide and deep longwave trough over the central and western CONUS with shortwave energy reaching into the Four Corners region and another impulse of shortwave energy lifting out of IA/MN. An attending surface low is also lifting NE through MN while lee cyclogenesis is initiating in the TX/OK panhandle regions. With the upper-level wave pattern keeping the jet stream and surface lows just northwest of our region, a deep warm/moist sector has been able to continue to settle into place with persistent gusty S'ly winds. With this airmass in place, lows will only drop to the lower 60s this morning with dewpoints hovering around 60-62F.
Significant and dangerous flooding is expected tonight:
Many areas have already received 2+ inches of rain in the last 72 hours. Some localized areas have received up to 3-6 inches, especially areas along I-44 and I-49. After a brief period of dry weather this morning, unfortunately more heavy rainfall is on the way for these areas that are already oversaturated with 3-6 inches of rain. This will set the stage for significant flooding potential tonight into Sunday along and west of Hwy 65, where a moderate (3/4) risk for excessive rainfall is in place.
The upper-level shortwave energy from the Four Corners region will make its way into the central Plains during the day Saturday. As it forces surface cyclogenesis across the Plains and initiates low-level warm air advection over the Midwest, the wave will amplify and become negatively tilted. This will reorient positive vorticity advection in such a way that the shortwave will stall and slowly lift NNE through Sunday.
Additionally, with the strong forcing, an impressive coupled jet feature will develop and sit over the central Plains, providing persistent strong synoptic ascent for multiple rounds of training heavy storms.
As the upper-level wave enters the region Saturday afternoon, storms will initiate in OK and lift NE into our counties along the MO/KS border. These storms will move quickly NE, but with the upper-level wave progressing slowly, the storms will train, bringing persistent heavy rain to the areas they go over. As the night progresses and synoptic support and the low-level jet amplifies, a slow-moving QLCS will move east through the same region bringing another period of prolonged rainfall. This QLCS will eventually make its way to the Hwy 65 corridor by 6-9 AM Sunday morning.
With the multiple rounds of training storms, rain totals through Sunday morning will be in the 2-4" range along and west of Hwy 65 with localized areas receiving up to 5-6 inches as suggested by the HRRR LPMMs. The area most likely for localized 5-6 inches of rain is in a corridor along the MO/KS border, including Pittsburg, KS and Nevada, MO. These locations have already received 4-6 inches and another 4-6 inches on top of that in 24-48 hours would promote significant areal, river, and flash flooding. Please pay attention to alerts during the rainfall event. Have a plan in place and remember, Turn Around, Don't Drown!
Significant and dangerous severe weather is expected today:
Each round of storms mentioned with the flooding threat will also bring a significant severe threat, especially along and west of I-49 where a moderate (4/5) risk is in place. With lower to mid-60s dewpoints already across our entire CWA, uncapped MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg will exist as early as 12 PM. High temperatures warming into the upper 70s will increase these values to 2500-3500 J/kg by late afternoon. There is some signal among the CAMs (notably the HRRR/RRFS/FV3) that showers and thunderstorms could develop in this open, uncapped warm sector late this afternoon. Averaged forecast soundings for our whole CWA during this time period depicts a mini-supercell environment with shortened, yet curved, hodographs with <20 kts of storm-relative inflow, 25-35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and 200-300 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. High RH throughout the column would also limit entrainment and support the updrafts these mini- supercells. The main uncertainty is whether anything will initiate. The warm sector will be beneath the right exit region of the jet which would work against large-scale ascent. But if storms do form, a risk for marginally severe mini-supercells would exist between 5-8PM generally along and west of Hwy 63.
These would pose a hail risk up to the size of golf balls, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and perhaps a weak tornado or two.
After 8PM, the main severe threat then ramps up, mainly along and west of I-49. Storms that form in east OK will quickly move NE into our counties along the MO/KS border by 8-10 PM.
These will quickly become a messy SW-NE oriented band of supercells and bow structures given an environment with long looping hodographs producing 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 kts and 0-3 km SRH values approaching 400 m2/s2 thanks to nocturnal enhancement of the low-level jet. This round of storms will bring the threat of all significant hazards. LCL heights below 300-500m, 250-350 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH, and >6 C/km near-surface lapse rates will promote a tornado threat, with the potential for an EF2+ (STP ranges from 2-3 with 60-70% chances to be greater than 4). Additionally, mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km with weaker shear above 1 km will promote a large hail threat up to the size of baseballs. And lastly, wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible with any bow structure and supercell.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE that these supercells will be training.
This means after one supercell moves through an area, there is still potential for another (with the same hazards) to move over that same location. Keep this in mind when making your safety plan!
As mid-level forcing for ascent and the nocturnal low-level jet increases after 10 PM, another line of storms will develop across KS/OK. This is expected to be an MCS that will slowly progress eastward through our area. This would bring the severe threat to the Springfield area by early morning (1-4AM). All hazards would be possible with this line of storms including tornadoes and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Hail will still be possible, but less likely. However, there is a scenario where the MCS is a hybrid MCS with embedded supercellular structures given 50 kt 0-1 km shear vectors feeding into the MCS rather than forcing from behind. This would enhance the hail threat within any embedded supercells. The MCS will weaken and clear the area by 7AM or so, but lingering stratiform rain will still be prevalent across the area.
Additional severe weather and flooding potential Sunday:
On Sunday, the upper-level wave pattern will have substantially slowed, keeping any surface frontal forcing to our west. This will keep the warm/moist sector across our area and bring yet again another chance for severe weather and additional flooding Sunday. Despite an expansive MCS moving through Sunday morning, relative humidity values will remain above 80%, limiting the strength of its cold pool, and allow for sufficient airmass destabilization before Sunday afternoon. Even without further warming (highs Sunday will be in the lower 70s), dewpoints remaining in the 60s will be enough for at least 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
As the core of the mid-level jet max moves over our region by mid-afternoon Sunday, another thunderstorm complex will quickly develop and nose its way up into our area. This MCS will be slightly more progressive as upper-level forcing begins to kick out of the region, but even still, PWATs in the 1.2-1.3" range will promote heavy rain within these thunderstorms. This will once again bring the threat for flooding for much of our CWA
Additionally, while the environment will be more modest than Saturday's, sufficient instability and 0-6 km shear at 40 kts and 0-1 km shear at 20-25 kts will bring the potential for severe weather within the MCS--mainly wind gusts up to 60 mph and perhaps a spinup tornado or two.
Additional storm development may occur along the cold front along the MO/KS border. Linear forcing will promote mainly a damaging wind threat, but weak low-level wind shear and an elevated mixed layer producing 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates could bring an isolated hail threat up to the size of quarters.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
After the upper-level pattern finally shifts to where the jet remains off to our north, temperatures will warm into the mid-70s Monday, and the lower 80s Tuesday/Wednesday. Lows this period will be quite mild in the mid-60s.
Additional storm chances mid to late next week:
Despite the jet being off to the north, southerly surface flow and subtle shortwave impulses rounding the longwave pattern will bring multiple chances for showers/thunderstorms next week.
Clusters still point out some timing differences, but confidence is increasing for showers/thunderstorms at least Wednesday and Thursday. PoPs are at 40-70% for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and 60-80% for Thursday. After Thursday, details become more uncertain, but a slight cooldown appears likely with highs dropping to the lower 70s and lows in the lower 50s for the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
SCT to BKN low clouds are filtering in and out of all TAF sites at the moment, bringing in brief periods of MVFR ceilings. These clouds should increase in coverage through 15Z before gradually burning off by 18Z. Winds will remain gusty out of the S with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts. A low- level jet is also presenting 45 kts of low-level wind shear, which should subside by 13-14Z.
Isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm development is possible (20-40% chance) at all TAF sites during the mid- to late afternoon hours (21-02Z). These will be most prevalent during peak heating before dissipating after sunset.
CLIMATE
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 27: KSGF: 67/1899
April 28: KSGF: 68/1896
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFWB BRANSON WEST MUNI EMERSON FIELD,MO | 4 sm | 18 min | SSE 04 | 9 sm | Overcast | Thunderstorm in Vicinity | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.85 |
| KBBG BRANSON,MO | 16 sm | 38 min | SE 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Thunderstorm in Vicinity | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.87 |
Springfield, MO,
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