Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nash, OK
May 6, 2024 12:44 AM CDT (05:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:29 AM Moonset 6:05 PM |
FXUS64 KOUN 060341 AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1041 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
-Significant severe weather is expected across the entire area Monday early afternoon into the overnight hours
-Vary large hail (softball size or larger) and significant, long- tracked tornadoes, could accompany ANY storm that develops within Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas Monday afternoon and evening.
-Have your severe weather plan in place NOW and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings!
12Z RAOBs this morning from FWD down to CRP show deep tropospheric moisture at least through the 700-500 mb layer. A closed mid-level low, currently approaching the Desert Southwest via water vapor imagery, is forecast to evolve into an open wave (negatively tilted) and move across the southern/central Plains starting late Monday morning/early afternoon.
The aforementioned deep moisture profile is expected to advect northward this evening and into Monday morning as lee cyclogenesis along the Rockies strengthens ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. This strong mass response will bring surface moisture, characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints, into Kansas; and low 70s dewpoints north of the Red River by Monday afternoon. A dryline will mix eastward just east the OK/TX border by the early afternoon. The environment ahead of this dryline will be characterized by strongly unstable and highly sheared environment.
As the mid-level wave moves eastward throughout the day, storms are expected to initiate off the dryline during the early to mid afternoon. While coverage of storms still is uncertain, any storm that does form will be capable of producing very large hail and significant, long-tracked tornadoes.
Bunker
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday Night: Significant severe weather is expected to continue through evening hours as a nocturnal low-level jet increases after sunset. This LLJ will increase low-level shear, which will increase the tornado potential will any storm that is ongoing.
Storms are expected to move out of the area by late Monday night (after midnight). A few storms may produce localized flash flooding, especially across areas that have received multiple inches of rain over the last several days.
Tuesday: Could see a lull in activity Tuesday as the main wave lifts northward.
Wednesday: A cold front will move in Wednesday morning and will make it to southeastern Oklahoma by the mid afternoon. Dewpoints ahead of the cold front are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. Thunderstorms are expected along this boundary in the afternoon and evening timeframe. Given the shear and instability, a few severe storms are possible as well across the southeastern portions of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat.
Through the rest of the week and into the weekend, it seems as though for now we will see a lull in thunderstorm activity.
Bunker
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
IFR-MVFR conditions expected overnight through at least 14-16Z most terminals. Dense fog/LIFR appears most likely around KPNC and KSWO north of developing warm front. Moisture return will keep at least MVFR going most if not all day ahead of dryline. Will introduce +TSRA to northern and central Oklahoma terminals, with TEMPO at KPNC/KSWO where coverage is expected to be greater after 00Z. Gusty south winds will veer to southwest/west toward end of forecast behind dryline/Pac-front.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 60 80 54 82 / 0 50 30 0 Hobart OK 61 86 52 84 / 10 40 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 64 85 57 83 / 0 20 10 0 Gage OK 58 87 48 85 / 10 30 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 80 51 80 / 10 70 60 0 Durant OK 63 82 68 86 / 0 40 40 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1041 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
-Significant severe weather is expected across the entire area Monday early afternoon into the overnight hours
-Vary large hail (softball size or larger) and significant, long- tracked tornadoes, could accompany ANY storm that develops within Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas Monday afternoon and evening.
-Have your severe weather plan in place NOW and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings!
12Z RAOBs this morning from FWD down to CRP show deep tropospheric moisture at least through the 700-500 mb layer. A closed mid-level low, currently approaching the Desert Southwest via water vapor imagery, is forecast to evolve into an open wave (negatively tilted) and move across the southern/central Plains starting late Monday morning/early afternoon.
The aforementioned deep moisture profile is expected to advect northward this evening and into Monday morning as lee cyclogenesis along the Rockies strengthens ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. This strong mass response will bring surface moisture, characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints, into Kansas; and low 70s dewpoints north of the Red River by Monday afternoon. A dryline will mix eastward just east the OK/TX border by the early afternoon. The environment ahead of this dryline will be characterized by strongly unstable and highly sheared environment.
As the mid-level wave moves eastward throughout the day, storms are expected to initiate off the dryline during the early to mid afternoon. While coverage of storms still is uncertain, any storm that does form will be capable of producing very large hail and significant, long-tracked tornadoes.
Bunker
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday Night: Significant severe weather is expected to continue through evening hours as a nocturnal low-level jet increases after sunset. This LLJ will increase low-level shear, which will increase the tornado potential will any storm that is ongoing.
Storms are expected to move out of the area by late Monday night (after midnight). A few storms may produce localized flash flooding, especially across areas that have received multiple inches of rain over the last several days.
Tuesday: Could see a lull in activity Tuesday as the main wave lifts northward.
Wednesday: A cold front will move in Wednesday morning and will make it to southeastern Oklahoma by the mid afternoon. Dewpoints ahead of the cold front are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. Thunderstorms are expected along this boundary in the afternoon and evening timeframe. Given the shear and instability, a few severe storms are possible as well across the southeastern portions of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat.
Through the rest of the week and into the weekend, it seems as though for now we will see a lull in thunderstorm activity.
Bunker
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
IFR-MVFR conditions expected overnight through at least 14-16Z most terminals. Dense fog/LIFR appears most likely around KPNC and KSWO north of developing warm front. Moisture return will keep at least MVFR going most if not all day ahead of dryline. Will introduce +TSRA to northern and central Oklahoma terminals, with TEMPO at KPNC/KSWO where coverage is expected to be greater after 00Z. Gusty south winds will veer to southwest/west toward end of forecast behind dryline/Pac-front.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 60 80 54 82 / 0 50 30 0 Hobart OK 61 86 52 84 / 10 40 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 64 85 57 83 / 0 20 10 0 Gage OK 58 87 48 85 / 10 30 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 80 51 80 / 10 70 60 0 Durant OK 63 82 68 86 / 0 40 40 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KWDG ENID WOODRING RGNL,OK | 21 sm | 29 min | SSE 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 29.86 | |
| KEND VANCE AFB,OK | 22 sm | 49 min | ESE 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.83 |
Vance AFB, OK,
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