Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nash, OK

NEAR TERM
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

A dryline is forecast to be oriented from northeast to southwest, on either side of the 100th meridian. The environment ahead of the dryline is forecast to become weakly capped to uncapped with daytime heating and moisture pooling. As a result, a few thunderstorms are likely to develop near the dryline from daytime heating, low-level convergence, and the dryline circulation after 4 PM. Shear and instability ahead of the dryline will be sufficient for supercells with all hazards (large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes).

The most likely area for convective initiation is across western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma, where a dryline bulge is forecast to develop (which would further enhance low-level lift).
These storms may grow upscale into a complex that would track east or east-northeast across at the southern half of Oklahoma with a threat for damaging wind gusts. Upscale growth would make it challenging for storms to maintain their supercell characteristics. However, there will be a tornado threat with any embedded circulations within the complex. Also, if any storms can maintain their supercell characteristic into the evening, there would be a significant tornado threat as the environment will become more favorable after sunset.

In addition, there is a chance this complex could affect areas of southwest Oklahoma that saw significant rainfall/flooding over the weekend. Therefore, flash flooding will be a risk (depending on the exact location of any storms).

Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet and an advancing cold front will result in increasing thunderstorm coverage--especially across northern Oklahoma.

Mahale

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

By Tuesday, a cold front will advance southward into the Southern Plains and stall near the I-44 corridor. Flash flooding will become a significant hazard on Tuesday through Wednesday with mid/upper-level flow parallel to the quasi-stationary cold front with multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected.

The 12Z High Resolution Ensemble Forecast has a mean rainfall of 2 to 5 inches across the I-44 corridor through Wednesday morning.
The ensemble max, which you can consider as a reasonable worst case scenario ("how bad could it be?") that represents locally higher amounts, has 7 to 10 inches. There, confidence continues to increase for the potential for significant flash flooding near the I-44 corridor (e.g., Lawton, Oklahoma City metro) through Wednesday--especially given the recent heavy rainfall/flooding. A Flash Flood Watch was issued earlier today for all locations except northwest Oklahoma.

The location of the cold front will modulate the greatest risk of severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday (i.e., the greatest risk will be along and south of the cold front). All severe weather hazards will remain possible. The front may attempt to retreat to the north on Wednesday as the shortwave trough lifts across the Southern Plains, which would result in a greater risk of severe weather during the day Wednesday (along with flooding).

Mahale

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Like I said last night, may get a bit of a respite from the rain Thursday into Friday, but model differences preclude me from completely ruling out possibility of some rain/storms during this time frame. Another large western trough takes shape by the weekend with additional higher rain chances returning to the forecast. This pattern looks to continue right on through much of the following week as well.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Severe thunderstorms will remain possible into the late evening with MVFR conditions accompanying storm activity. IFR conditions are possible tomorrow morning for most TAF sites with showers and thunderstorms possible through tomorrow evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 62 72 60 72 / 80 90 100 90 Hobart OK 59 70 56 74 / 70 80 100 90 Wichita Falls TX 64 79 61 75 / 60 80 90 90 Gage OK 48 62 51 72 / 30 40 80 70 Ponca City OK 58 67 57 71 / 70 70 90 90 Durant OK 68 82 64 74 / 40 50 50 100

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for OKZ008-012-013- 017>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for TXZ083>090.