SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A few isolated showers/storms may develop later this afternoon and evening affecting parts of western OK and western north TX. With coverage expected to be minimal and some question on whether this activity will develop, chances are very low (around 10%) but do have a mention of isolated showers/storms in the forecast although most locations will stay dry.

Temperatures are expected to fall into the 60s to around 70 across the area tonight. Above average temperatures are expected Monday with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s with the hottest temperatures in parts of southwest OK and western north TX.

Isolated showers/storms may be possible again Monday in NW parts of the fa, but chances are currently low enough that do not have a mention in the forecast. However, something that later shifts will have to keep an eye on.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Above average temperatures are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Models show an upper ridge over the region for the first part of the week. Meanwhile, a longwave trough develops in the western U.S. This trough is expected to lift NE into the northern Plains towards the middle part of the week. The southern end of the trough will bring a chance for showers/storms to parts of western and northern OK Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Models show another mid/upper trough moving across the SW U.S. into the central/southern Plains towards the end of the week into next weekend. There are some differences in timing and path of this system so not high confidence in the forecast but it does look like this will be the best chance for more widespread showers and storms across the fa.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected until 162400 except for several hours of MVFR ceilings at KDUA after sunrise Monday. Winds will generally be less than 12 knots from the southeast except for occasional afternoon gusts at KWWR and KCSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 89 64 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 96 67 93 65 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 97 68 94 66 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 96 64 93 64 / 10 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 90 63 89 63 / 20 0 0 0 Durant OK 91 64 89 66 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.