Nash, OK Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nash, OK

April 15, 2024 9:39 AM CDT (14:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:55 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM
Moonrise 11:23 AM   Moonset 1:57 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nash, OK
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Area Discussion for - Norman, OK
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FXUS64 KOUN 150945 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 445 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Relatively low confidence on timing/evolution of severe weather today and tonight. Given strength of incoming storm system and the time of year, we believe there is a high probability for severe weather in and near our CWA, but the coverage of storms is uncertain and may be much less than previously thought. Persistent model signal is for late afternoon storms to form near our western north Texas counties and progress east and northeast, possibly affecting western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma through mid-evening. Supercell storms with very large hail will be the main concern, but there is also a threat of a tornado as well as this particular area will be in a region with deeper moisture. Areas farther north in the body of Oklahoma will still need to be watched, but all available guidance suggest storms would be isolated or non- existent due to cap and lack of sufficient moistening/heating to break it.

A few days ago, the NAM was an outlier in forecasting a fairly substantial cap/EML, and now more (most) of the CAMs are doing the same. This is likely one of the major reasons there is a lack of convective initiation in the models. A model that has not caught on to the stronger cap is the ECM, and it is concerning given favorable pre-frontal wind fields. With the eastward progression of the cold front overnight, along with continued (although weaker) height falls and continued increasing lower level moisture, our guard should not be let down for overnight/early Tuesday morning impactful severe weather near/east of the front. Hopefully, the mode is more or less linear as opposed to discrete storms. This is where model trends will be watched closely the next 12 to 18 hours.

In addition to the severe weather potential today, there will still be a window of low RH and gusty southerly winds across northwest Oklahoma early to mid afternoon, before dryline retreats westward into the eastern Panhandles. This will create at least a few hours of near critical to critical fire weather conditions in portions of Ellis and Harper counties.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

On Tuesday, temperatures will be similar to Monday behind the weak front, but it will be much drier with gusty westerly winds. The driest air and strongest winds are expected across northern Oklahoma where critical fire weather conditions are possible. Confidence in the critical fire weather conditions is increasing due to the lower chances for appreciable coverage/amounts of rain Monday night.

Medium range models are in decent agreement on timing of the cold front Thursday which will bring temperatures down closer to and even below average for the end of the week and next weekend. With southwest flow aloft and minor s/wv troughs passing over the region as well, periods of scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms expected at least through the first half of the weekend. While no organized severe storms are currently expected during this time frame, we will need to watch for the potential for severe storms associated with the cold frontal passage across southeast Oklahoma on Thursday due to availability of moisture.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Intermittent MVFR ceilings will be possible throughout the day at most sites. A few locations could see IFR ceilings for a few hours. There is still low confidence in storms this evening across the area. Did retain PROB30 at KLAW and KSPS where confidence is the best for any thunderstorm development. South-southeast winds will strengthen throughout the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 80 62 80 54 / 30 60 0 0 Hobart OK 82 54 83 51 / 20 50 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 83 59 85 55 / 40 60 0 0 Gage OK 86 53 83 48 / 10 30 0 0 Ponca City OK 82 62 81 52 / 20 60 10 0 Durant OK 79 65 84 61 / 20 60 20 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KWDG ENID WOODRING RGNL,OK 21 sm44 minSSE 1010 smMostly Cloudy68°F68°F100%29.78
KEND VANCE AFB,OK 22 sm44 minSE 1010 smClear68°F64°F88%29.75
Link to 5 minute data for KWDG


Wind History from WDG
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Vance AFB, OK,



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