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FXUS64 KOUN 031748 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

One last warm day across the area today as higher mid-level heights shift eastward with the approach of a large scale mid- level trough. This aforementioned trough will be responsible for active weather this afternoon and evening. A dryline is forecast to mix as far east as the eastern parts of the TX/OK Panhandle.
Strong to severe storms are expected to initiate off this boundary this afternoon and move eastward throughout the afternoon and evening. Although much of the area west of I-35 is in a risk area for severe storms, confidence is highest along northwestern Oklahoma for storm development. This is mostly tied to the aforementioned mid-level wave and associated large scale ascent staying on the northern edge of the Southern Plains. Nevertheless, kinematic and thermodynamic ingredients will be in place for at least a low potential for severe storms to form all the way as far south as western north Texas. Any severe storms that do form across the area, are expected to be out of the area after midnight on Wednesday.

Bunker

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Severe weather is again possible on Wednesday, with higher uncertainty. What happens Tuesday afternoon and evening will largely dictate what happens Wednesday afternoon. A differential heating boundary from the overnight convection appears to be the focal point for storm development early Wednesday afternoon into the evening. A shortwave trough should round the base of the large scale trough and is expected to move across the area by early Wednesday afternoon. With large scale ascent, and the potential for outflow/differential heating boundaries, storms are possible across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas early Wednesday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms. Storms are expected to grow upscale into a line and move southeastward overnight.

Flooding could also be of concern Wednesday into Wednesday evening with increasing moisture advection through the week and multiple rounds of storms. Widespread rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are possible from central Oklahoma southward. Locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches are possible further south into southern Oklahoma and parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Dry conditions are likely beyond Wednesday as we will be on the backside of the aforementioned trough. A stronger cold front is expected late in the week, which will bring Fall temperatures across the whole area by the weekend. Saturday morning temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s, with afternoon highs in the mid 60s. A gradual warming trend will begin Sunday in to early next week.

Bunker

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop later today across northwestern OK, and again late tonight near northern OK. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently approaching LAW from the southwest, but our now quickly dissipating. MVFR cigs appear likely over central OK after 12Z Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 67 81 62 78 / 50 80 80 20 Hobart OK 65 83 60 81 / 60 70 60 20 Wichita Falls TX 69 88 65 82 / 60 80 80 30 Gage OK 59 76 53 80 / 60 40 20 10 Ponca City OK 64 81 60 82 / 60 60 50 20 Durant OK 70 84 65 81 / 40 90 90 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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