Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:29PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:36 AM EDT (11:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 8:39AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ634 Chesapeake Bay From Little Creek Va To Cape Henry Va Including The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- 724 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then becoming sw late. Waves 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Tonight..NW winds 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 724 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. An area of low pressure tracks across the waters later this morning, with a strong cold front crossing the region tonight. Low pressure will intensify while moving northeast to new england on Thursday, bringing strong northwest winds to the local area. High pressure slowly builds into the region late Friday into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake, VA
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location: 36.76, -76.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 161105
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
705 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Periods of rain Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Gusty
winds are expected behind the front Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure builds in for the end of the week
resulting in cool and dry weather.

Near term until 8 am this morning
As of 600 am edt Wednesday...

rain started moving into the southwest portions of the cwa
around 9z. Adjusted the near term pops a little further east.

Rainfall amounts through 12z will be light across the southwest,
likely a trace to about a tenth of an inch. Surface obs and
satellite confirm much of the region is now overcast as mid and
high clouds have spread over the area. Some patchy fog can be
found in areas that saw a little bit more clearing earlier this
morning, mainly richmond and areas northwest, as well as
portions of the md eastern shore.

Short term 8 am this morning through Friday
As of 345 am edt Wednesday...

some much needed rain will spread across the entire region today.

The forecast challenge today will be in the amount of rain that
falls across the area. A cold front associated with a low pressure
centered over the great lakes will approach from the west today.

This system will interact with another low expected to develop near
or just off our coast this morning. Latest hi-res models show that
rain should start to overspread the region from SW to NE beginning
after 09z. Moderate to heavy rain is expected at times from late
morning through the afternoon, before tapering off near 00z tonight.

Region wide QPF amounts will be in the 0.5-1.0 inch range, with
localized higher amounts. SPC has our region outlooked for general
thunder today. Highest chances for that will be across the eastern
half of the forecast area as instability increases modestly during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Mostly cloudy skies and
periods of rain will keep temps on the cooler side today, with mid
to upper 60s over the western half of the CWA and lower 70s near the
coast.

After the cold front crosses the area tonight, wnw winds will become
gusty as drier cooler air begins to filter into the region.

Wind gusts by late Thursday morning will be 25-35 mph and that
will continue through much of the day before relaxing to 10-20
mph by late Thursday into early Friday. Low temps will drop to
the low to mid 40s for most on Thursday and Friday with near 50
degrees close to the coast. Wouldn't be surprised to see some
upper 30s across the far nw. High temps will be cool and
pleasant reaching the low to mid 60s both days.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 230 pm edt Tuesday...

sfc hi pres moves out off the coast Fri night through sat
resulting in dry near seasonable wx. Return flow behind the high
once its off the coast Sun through Mon will bring an increase
in moisture (and pops) from the SW ahead of lo pres tracking
through the midwest - initially inland late Sun sun night... Then
all areas mon. A cold front is expected to cross the region tue
w additional ra chcs.

Lows Fri night 40-45f inland to the l50s at the (immediate)
coast. Highs Sat in the u60s-l70s. Lows Sat night in the u40s
inland to the l-m50s at the coast. Highs Sun in the l-m70s. Lows
sun night in the m-u50s... Except l60s at the coast. Highs mon
from the l70s N to the u70s far se. Highs Tue in the u60s NW to
the u70s.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 700 am edt Wednesday...

rain will overspread the region this morning with the heaviest rain
expected late morning through the afternoon hours before tapering
off this evening. Expect periods of MVFR ifr ceilings and visbys,
especially during times of moderate to heavy rain. There is a slight
chance of thunder across the eastern portion of the forecast area
today, but chances are too low to mention in the tafs. All locations
should return toVFR after 00z tonight. Winds will be S SW ahead of
the front turning to the W NW during the afternoon. Winds will
become quite gusty behind the front, with gusts of 15-25kts and
perhaps 30kts at ksby. Strong gusts will continue through Thursday
before diminishing overnight into Friday morning.VFR conditions are
expected Thursday through Saturday. On Sunday a storm system
originating in the gulf is forecast to ride up the carolina coast.

Depending on the track of this system, some showers could affect the
region which may result in periods of subVFR conditions.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

sub-sca conditions prevail early this morning with a SE wind
around 10 kt on avg and seas of 2-3 ft, bay waves 1-2 ft.

Conditions will slowly worsen later today and then really
deteriorate in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage this
evening. Only real change to the forecast was to convert the
gale watch for the coastal waters N of CAPE charles to a gale
warning and to upgrade the northern bay zone (smith pt to
windmill pt) to a gale warning. These areas are expected to see
a prolonged period of gusts to at least 35-40 kt this evening
into early Thu am (potentially 40-45kt coastal waters N of
parramore island).

Elsewhere, strong scas (due to winds) are expected starting
this evening through Thu night. Do anticipate a brief period of
higher gusts this evening W the frontal passage (about 2 hrs
worth of occasional gusts to 35-40 kt). May need to issue a
short fused smw to cover this but felt that a gale warning would
be too long for short term event. Seas will build to 5-7 ft n
and 4-6 ft s, while waves in the bay build to 3-5 ft, and 2-3 ft
waves in the rivers. The current forecast has winds remaining
aoa SCA thresholds for bay and coast through ~12z fri. Sub-sca
conditions return by late fri, as high pressure settles over the
waters.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

seeing some slowly increasing tidal anomalies into the bay and
will let current coastal flood statement continue over
dorchester co md for the next few hrs. Will then likely be
issuing another coastal flood statement and or advisory across
much of the upper bay for the upcoming high tide cycle this
aftn due to a continued increase in tidal departures as the sse
winds increase and with cbofs forecast for a dominant flood tide
through the aftn helping trap water into the bay. Then, in the
wake of the cold front tonight, strong wnw flow will lead to a
strong ebb tide for ~24 hrs through thu. This will lead to
significant drops in water levels across the bay. Does not
appear to be enough to lead to low water advisories given the
initial elevated water levels.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to midnight
edt tonight for mdz021.

Coastal flood advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this
evening for mdz022-023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this
evening for vaz099.

Coastal flood advisory from noon today to 7 pm edt this
evening for vaz075-077-078.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Friday for anz635>638.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Friday for anz631-632-634.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz633-656-658.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am edt Thursday for
anz630.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 pm edt Thursday for
anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Cmf
near term... Cmf
short term... Cmf
long term... Alb
aviation... Cmf
marine... Lkb tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 1 mi48 min SE 8 G 8.9 67°F 72°F1011.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 9 mi48 min SE 8.9 G 11 67°F 1011.3 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 13 mi54 min 70°F1011.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 15 mi54 min SE 11 G 13 68°F 1010.9 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 16 mi54 min SE 11 G 14 68°F 1011.6 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 19 mi48 min SE 14 G 18 69°F 1011.9 hPa
44064 20 mi36 min SE 16 G 21 69°F 69°F2 ft1011.2 hPa
44087 20 mi36 min 70°F2 ft
CHBV2 22 mi54 min SE 17 G 20 69°F 1010.7 hPa
44072 30 mi36 min SSW 16 G 19 69°F 69°F2 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 32 mi36 min 70°F3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 32 mi54 min SE 13 G 16 69°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 34 mi48 min SE 18 G 20 69°F 1011.9 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 34 mi48 min SE 5.1 G 6 67°F 71°F1011.2 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 41 mi36 min 66°F 71°F1012.1 hPa
FRFN7 49 mi96 min 3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 49 mi48 min SE 17 G 19 1011.6 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 49 mi36 min 72°F3 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA7 mi41 minE 410.00 miOvercast63°F62°F96%1011.5 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA11 mi45 minSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F64°F87%1011.4 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA12 mi97 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F63°F90%1012.4 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA15 mi40 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F63°F87%1011.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA17 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F63°F100%1011.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA23 mi90 minSSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F66°F98%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCPK

Wind History from CPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE8N7NE6NE5E4E6NE10E6E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E3
1 day agoSW3SW5SW3S6S4NW6NW4NW4SW4SW3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3SE3SW4SW8SW9SW5CalmW6CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmS6S8S5CalmS4S5SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Wed -- 01:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:22 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:07 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.40.20.60.90.80.60.3-0.1-0.6-1-1.2-1.1-0.7-0.30.20.60.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.