Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake, VA

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Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:23PM Friday July 19, 2019 6:40 PM EDT (22:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:22PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ634 Chesapeake Bay From Little Creek Va To Cape Henry Va Including The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- 401 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Through 7 pm..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Isolated showers or tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Tstms likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 401 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the weekend. A cold front will move across the waters Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, hot and humid weather will continue until Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake, VA
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location: 36.76, -76.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191946
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
346 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast through Monday. A
cold front crosses the area Monday night, ending the current
heat wave by Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

latest msas shows a sfc trof across the va nc coastal plain with
sfc high pressure over the sern states. Isltd-sct convection
has developed ivof this boundary and expect this sporatic
activity to continue thru sunset across the SE then diminish due
to loss of heating. Will carry low chc pops across the SRN half
of the local area thru the eve. Otw, fair to pt cldy, wam and
muggy. Lows mid-upr 70s, except arnd 80 in urban areas.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

sern ridge dominates thru the weekend. The heat peaks Sat (warmest
h85 temps) then conts Sun due to compressional heating well ahead
of the approaching front. In addition, a weak trof to the west sun
will allow for some late aftn convection to drift east off the blue
ridge and into the WRN piedmont. Thus, kept low chc pops mainly
west of i95 Sun aftrn.

Confidence is high enough now (and to make the heat headlines as
simple as possible) to go with an excessive heat warning across
the entire forecast area both Sat sun. Highs mid 90s-lwr 100s,
heat indices 110-115. Warm muggy with little if any cooling at
night. Lows 75-80, highest urban areas.

Moisture increases ahead of the cold front Sun nite. Best support
for pcpn will be across the north so will carry low chc pops there.

Otw, pt to mstly cldy, warm humid. Lows 75-80.

The cold front slowly approaches from the NW mon, not entering the
local area until Mon nite. Models show the front slowing a bit,
allowing enough heating prior to 18z for temps to jump to btwn
90-97 before any pcpn develops. Heat advsry may be needed across
the south and east. Convection develops Mon aftrn with chc to low
end likely pops late (highest north). Given the synoptic setup,
there is certainly a risk for severe weather with stronger wind
fields aloft due to the lowering heights. Stay tuned.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

guidance continues to suggest a fairly abrupt cool down by Tuesday
as a long wave trough sets up across the eastern half of the
country. At the surface, low pressure is progged to track from pa to
the canadian maritimes. Guidance has trended slightly slower W the
passage of the associated cold front... It is now forecast to
approach the region Monday night before slowly crossing the area
(from nw-se) on tue. TSTM chances increase from NW to SE Mon night-
tue as the front slowly crosses the region. The best chc of tstms
mon night will be across the NRN half of the cwa. As the front
approaches SE va NE nc Tue aftn, expect re-development of
showers tstms (as pcpn chances diminish across northern western
zones). Guidance is in very good agreement with respect to numerous
shower TSTM coverage Tue aftn-evening across the se. Have likely
pops across the north Mon night with chc pops across the south. Have
gone with pops of ~70% across the SE Tue aftn-evening. In addition,
severe weather cannot be ruled out with the FROPA (best chc for
severe wx looks to be across SE va NE nc Tue aftn where the fropa
coincides W peak heating).

The front finally moves just SE of the CWA on Tue before slowly
pushing well S of the area by Thursday. Deep-layer moisture will be
slow to exit coastal SE va NE nc under moist ssw flow aloft.

Therefore, will maintain chc pops through late Wed across far se
zones. Drier by late next week as high pressure tries to build in
from the north. Still cannot rule out an isolated aftn-evening
shower TSTM (especially s) through fri. Highs generally dropping
back to the low-mid 80s for Tue and wed, then mid-upper 80s thu-fri
with more sunshine. Morning lows will mainly be in the upper 60s-mid
70s on Tue before dropping into the 60s in most areas from wed-fri
(with forecast lows in the low 70s along the immediate coast of se
va NE nc).

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
As of 110 pm edt Friday...

vfr conditions thru the forecast period. Sct-bkn CU btwn 4-5k ft
this aftrn may actually pop up some sct convection this aftrn.

Current echoes seem to be weakening as quickly as they dvlp, do
did not include any pcpn in the tafs for now. Winds vrbl 5-10 kts.

Outlook... Bermuda high starts to break down late Sun sun night
allowing for some late day eve convection over the piedmont. A
better and more widespread chc for convection comes later mon
thru tue, as a cold front approaches and drops acrs the area.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

strong high pressure at the surface and aloft over the southwestern
atlantic is leading to continued south and southwesterly large scale
flow over the eastern conus. Local winds are somewhat variable near
the coast due to afternoon sea breeze circulations but are generally
5-10 knots. Waves are around 1 ft in the bay with seas offshore 2-3
ft.

Winds become ssw and increase slightly tonight to ~10 knots in the
bay and offshore waters. Southwesterly winds 5-10 knots will
continue through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure
remains anchored off the southeast coast. Some nocturnal enhancement
in wind speeds to 10-15 knots each night through Monday morning.

Large scale ridging will begin to break down on Monday as a surface
trough precedes an upper level disturbance across the great lakes.

Southwesterly flow will increase as the pressure gradient begins to
tighten on Monday afternoon, generally 10-15 knots across both the
bay and offshore waters. Waves will build to around 2 ft while seas
increase to 2-4 ft S and 3-4 ft N in sustained southwesterly flow.

19.12z global models have trended slower regarding the expected
frontal passage with the boundary now not clearing the area until
sometime early Tuesday afternoon. A period of showers and storms
(some of which may quite strong) will precede this front. North and
northeast flow, generally AOB 10 knots, will follow the frontal
passage for the mid to late week period.

Climate
* due to unrepresentative temperatures at the norfolk intl
airport today (the ASOS reported a daily MAX of 97f), the high
temperature from the co- op station was used for today with a
high of 94f. This matches close to surrounding sites (ngu was
93f and the va tech installed mesonet station close to orf was
94f).

Upcoming heatwave may challenge or break record highs and or
record high lows (esp from Fri through sun).

Richmond record high record high low
fri (7 19) 101 1942 77 2013
sat (7 20) 103 1930 78 2013
sun (7 21) 104 1930 77 1930
mon (7 22) 103 1952 79 2011
norfolk record high record high low
fri (7 19) 101 1942 84 1942
sat (7 20) 102 1942 79 1977
sun (7 21) 101 1926 80 1983
mon (7 22) 102 2011 82 2011
salisbury record high record high low
fri (7 19) 99 1977 78 2013
sat (7 20) 104 1930 83 2013
sun (7 21) 106 1930 77 2017
mon (7 22) 104 1930 80 2011
elizabeth city record high record high low
fri (7 19) 105 1942 80 2012
sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Excessive heat warning from noon Saturday to 11 pm edt Sunday
for mdz021>025.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz021>025.

Nc... Excessive heat warning until 11 pm edt Sunday for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Excessive heat warning from noon Saturday to 11 pm edt Sunday
for vaz048-060>062-064>069-075>080-099-100-509>517-519-
521-522.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz048-060>062-
064>069-075>080-099-100-509>517-519-521-522.

Excessive heat warning until 11 pm edt Sunday for vaz081>090-
092-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ess
aviation... Mpr
marine... Rhr
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 1 mi53 min S 7 G 8.9 89°F 88°F1013.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 9 mi53 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 90°F 1013.2 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 13 mi59 min 83°F1013.2 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 15 mi59 min E 8 G 8.9 87°F 1012.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 16 mi59 min ESE 5.1 G 6 91°F 1013.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 19 mi53 min S 8 G 8.9 90°F 1013.5 hPa
44087 20 mi41 min 86°F1 ft
44064 20 mi41 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 87°F 84°F1 ft1012.8 hPa (-1.5)
CHBV2 22 mi59 min S 7 G 8 87°F 1012.6 hPa
44072 30 mi41 min SSW 9.7 G 12 86°F 87°F1 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 32 mi41 min 81°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 32 mi59 min S 8 G 8.9 85°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 34 mi53 min SE 8 G 8 87°F 1013.7 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 34 mi53 min E 6 G 7 89°F 85°F1012.8 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 41 mi35 min 94°F 90°F1013.2 hPa
FRFN7 49 mi161 min 2 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 49 mi53 min S 11 G 16 85°F 60°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA7 mi46 minESE 310.00 miFair86°F79°F81%1013.5 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA11 mi50 minSSE 810.00 miFair92°F75°F60%1013.3 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA12 mi1.7 hrsSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F77°F66%1013.7 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA15 mi45 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F75°F75%1013.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA17 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair93°F76°F60%1013.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA23 mi1.7 hrsSSE 69.00 miPartly Cloudy93°F75°F57%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from CPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5CalmS5S5W4CalmSW3S3S3S3CalmCalmS3SW3SW4W4CalmW4S3CalmSE6NE5CalmSE3
1 day agoCalmS6S9S7S8S7S6S8S5S4S6S6S7SW4SW8SW6SW4SW6S9
G16
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2 days agoCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3S4S5S5S4S4SW5SW4SW6S9S5SW7S6S9S6S4S9SW18
G29

Tide / Current Tables for Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:12 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:00 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:03 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.4-0.1-0.6-1-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.30.10.50.50.40.1-0.2-0.6-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.20.40.81

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.