Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moss Landing, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:01PM Thursday August 13, 2020 10:43 AM PDT (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:06AMMoonset 2:48PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 812 Am Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Today..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 13 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 13 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..S winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat..W winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft and sw around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft and sw around 2 ft. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 812 Am Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Remnant tropical moisture from former hurricane elida will bring chances of Thunderstorms to the waters from south to north throughout the day. Expect locally gusty winds, rough seas, and frequent lightning with some of these cells. Otherwise, generally light to moderate northwest winds across the waters through the weekend aside from locally breezy winds over the northern outer waters into this evening. Mixed seas will persist through the period with a short period northwest swell and two longer period southerly swells.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moss Landing, CA
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location: 36.81, -121.76     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 131433 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 733 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warming trend will continue through late week as high pressure builds toward the coast. Some tropical moisture arriving from the south will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. By Friday and moreso over the weekend hot weather returns to inland areas with triple digit heat likely continuing into early next week while a shallow marine layer persists along the coast.

DISCUSSION. as of 07:30 AM PDT Thursday . Active weather expected today as a slug of elevated moisture ejected from former hurricane Elida will spawn high based showers and thunderstorms, of which the main threat is from lightning. Radar and satellite imagery as well as lightning detection networks confirm the existence several discrete convective cells currently off the coasts of Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and now Monterey counties early this morning. IR satellite imagery suggests enhancement is underway of these discrete convective cells just off the coast with numerous lightning strikes detected and increasing cloud tops. As a result, confidence is increasing for the potential of these showers and thunderstorms moving into our region from south to north today. Latest local WRF data suggests an even more widespread coverage of these showers and thunderstorms than previous thinking however we are now moreso in weather watch mode and will make more decisions on ground truth and satellite/radar trends. This may lead to several forecast updates this morning to nudge coverage of potential showers and thunderstorms today and a few of these updates have already been sent this morning. For now, current thinking is that there will be some precipitation to accompany these higher based showers, but perhaps not initially as the falling precipitation evaporates into (and gradually moistens) a dry layer beneath the elevated moisture/cloud bases. As such, there is some potential for dry lightning today, especially on the leading edge of the thunderstorms, however, rain rates in these cells should be sufficient in breaking through dry layers. That said, the rain shafts may not overlap with erratic strikes, so the potential for dry lightning is definitely a threat worth watching closely today and into tomorrow.

Otherwise, the main forecast focus looking forward the next several days will be regarding the upcoming heat for the inland areas and upgrading from excessive heat watch to heat advisory/excessive heat warning where necessary.

See previous discussions for more details on the current forecast package in regards to specifics, timings, etc as forecaster focus will now shift to weather watch through the morning.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. as of 02:56 AM PDT Thursday . A change in the weather is literally on the the horizon, but more on that later. In the meantime, a compressed marine layer hugs the San Mateo Coast southward to Point Conception and up the Salinas Valley. The compressed marine layer has resulted in low clouds and patchy fog. Given the shallow nature clearing of low clouds will be quicker than the previous few days. Additionally, the warming trend noticed on Wednesday will continue today as high pressure aloft continues to build over CA. Highs today will be across the interior with max temps reaching the upper 80s to lower 100s. Coastal areas will still hold onto some onshore flow keeping temperatures cooler, but still above normal with max temps reaching the 70s to mid 80s.

The bigger change in the weather is lurking to the south. The remnants of former Hurricane Elida has resulted in a good slug of tropical moisture surging northward. Satellite imagery captures this well with PWATs greater than 1 inch to the south. Additionally, local radars in SoCal and the Bay Area area already picking up a few echoes over the coastal waters, which are associated with the tropical moisture. Lastly, enough instability is in place that a few lightning strikes are showing up on GLM and other networks. Models from the 00Z run continue to advertise a northward track of the moisture/instability through out the day. Current forecast holds with a chance for showers/thunderstorms over the southern waters and southern Monterey/San Benito later today. Given the higher PWATs storms will be on the wetter side, but storm motions are marginal so a few dry strikes are possible. Obviously the greatest concern would be for fire weather. Additional surges of moisture and instability continue again Thursday night and Friday. The second surge appears to be a tad farther west and initially over the waters Thursday night then brushing land Friday afternoon. All that being said, confidence is still not high enough to pull the trigger on a Red Flag Warning at this time. Even if the precipitation forecast doesn't completely pan out, clouds streaming overhead and muggy conditions will be a slam dunk. Moisture begins to exit the Bay Area Friday into Saturday.

The second and potentially bigger impact to the Bay Area will be the impending heat. For several days now model guidance has shown a set up for a decent heat event for the Bay Area. Latest guidance continues that message and even suggests this could be a prolonged event lasting well into next week. No major change from previous forecast. Each day will ratchet upward with temperatures with the peak of the heat this weekend. The tricky part as always will be the large temperature spread from near the coast to inland areas. Lingering onshore flow will keep coastal areas from seeing really hot temperatures, but highs in the 80s are plausible. Interior locations can expect to see max temps in the 90s to 108 and if conditions line up just right up to 110-112. In addition to the hot daytime temperatures overnight lows will be very mild. The increasing clouds overhead will help to keep mild temperatures everywhere and not just in the hills. Current low temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s, which are close to record max low temperatures. All that being said, will keep the Excessive Heat Watch going for interior areas of the East/South Bay and southern Monterey/San Benito Friday through Sunday. This watch will likely be converted over to a Heat Advisory or possibly a Excessive Heat Warning later today.

Some minor cooling is expected by the middle of next week, but interior areas will still be in the 90s to lower 100s.

AVIATION. as of 04:38 AM PDT Thursday . for 12z TAFs. Mostly VFR with LIFR conditions for terminals near the Monterey Bay. The marine layer continued to decrease before leveling off around 800 feet AGL, but lack of clouds around the San Francisco Bay given the strong pressure gradient. VFR is expect Thursday afternoon with increasing mid/high clouds as moisture from the Eastern Pacific moves overhead. Winds are currently light and onshore, which will become breezy in the afternoon

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR with only a few clouds passing over around 800 ft. Winds have lightened. Increasing high clouds are forecast Thursday afternoon with increasing, breezy onshore winds. Winds will ease Thursday evening has only high clouds linger near the terminal.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . LIFR conditions with calm winds. Chances for reduced vis through 16z. Cloud cover should mix out by 16z for VFR with continued onshore flow Thursday afternoon. Increasing high clouds are expected. Return stratus clouds and IFR conditions expected after 3z as winds reduce.

MARINE. as of 02:18 AM PDT Thursday . Gusty northwest winds prevail over the northern waters, but will subside by Thursday evening. Winds will continue to decrease through the weekend. A slight chance for showers and a thunderstorm over the southern waters late Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening. Higher winds and wind waves are possible near thunderstorms. Seas will remain mixed with a short period northwest swell and a longer period southerly swell.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tday. SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm



PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP/MM AVIATION: DK MARINE: DK

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 1 mi118 min NW 1.9 58°F 58°F
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 2 mi48 min WNW 1.9 G 6 57°F 1014.8 hPa57°F
46092 - MBM1 15 mi94 min S 5.8 56°F 59°F1014.8 hPa (+2.4)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 15 mi47 min 61°F2 ft
MEYC1 16 mi67 min S 6 G 11 61°F 64°F1014.4 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 32 mi47 min 60°F6 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 34 mi43 min NNW 1.9 G 5.8 59°F 1014.9 hPa56°F
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 37 mi47 min 58°F5 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA9 mi50 minSSW 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1015.2 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA13 mi50 minSSW 310.00 miFair71°F57°F61%1015.4 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA16 mi49 minN 46.00 miA Few Clouds with Haze67°F55°F68%1016 hPa
Hollister, CA, CA19 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair70°F55°F60%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWVI

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW7SW6SW6SW7SW9SW7SW7W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
1 day ago45SW7W8W10W11W8W9W9W4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S3E4CalmS3CalmCalmCalm
2 days ago5SW8SW10SW11W11W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Pacific Mariculture Dock, Elkhorn Slough, Monterey Bay, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:14 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:15 AM PDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:26 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:21 AM PDT     -0.25 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:46 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:48 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:38 PM PDT     0.33 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:29 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:47 PM PDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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