Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday February 27, 2020 6:56 AM PST (14:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:59AMMoonset 9:53PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 255 Am Pst Thu Feb 27 2020
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt this afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 17 seconds.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..W winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 17 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 7 to 8 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 17 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 18 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 255 Am Pst Thu Feb 27 2020
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Relatively light northerly winds will prevail across the coastal waters today and Friday. Northerly winds will begin to strengthen over the northern outer waters Friday afternoon as a low pressure system slides south across the region. Strong northerly winds will spread south through the weekend and into next week. A moderate longer period northwest swell will move across the coastal waters through the end of the week. Another long period northwesterly swell is anticipated to move across the region over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes CDP, CA
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location: 36.83, -122.01     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 271217 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 417 AM PST Thu Feb 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably mild and dry conditions will persist over the region through the remainder of February. A weather system will approach from the northwest this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and the potential for light precipitation by Sunday.

DISCUSSION. as of 02:52 AM PST Thursday . Another quiet night across the Bay Area with mild and dry conditions. Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies with only high clouds streaming in from the SW. The high clouds are associated with an upper level low sandwiched between Hawaii and Baja. Only other item of note on the satellite is a patchy low clouds off the North Bay Coast. Not expecting any impacts, but they may creep toward the coastline by sunrise.

If you liked the weather on Wednesday you'll like the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain above normal and mainly in the 60s near the coast and 70s inland. A few spots may eclipse 80 across the far interior. Temperatures will cool a few degrees on Friday, but it will be only a few degrees.

The ridge of high pressure that is currently bringing the nice weather will weaken Friday into Saturday as a trough of low pressure approaches from the north. The temp drop from Friday to Saturday will be on the order of 10-15 degrees. Despite the big cool down temperatures will actually be returning to more seasonable levels - highs in the 60s. Winds will increase a tad on Saturday as well with increasing onshore flow.

Now to the main event - the approaching trough is still on track to deepen and become a cutoff low Sunday into Monday. For a while it looked like this trough/low would bring the first rain to the Bay Area since late January. The trend the last few days hasn't been favorable for a rainy scenario. The latest 00-06Z is keeping the drier scenario - including the higher resolution NAM that is now capturing Sunday. The ECMWF had split precip over the Sierra and off the coast keeping San Francisco dry. The other models are now coming into to agreement with the ECMWF solution. there are still a few ensembles keep some rain place for Sunday, but not much. One item that is more certain is this trough/low will usher in a much colder airmass. The cold air will lower snow levels and make the airmass more unstable. The instability probably won't be enough for thunderstorms, but could result in a more convective showery regime. Therefore, won't completely remove precip chances, but definitely trending drier. Most likely areas for any precip would be south of San Jose. If showers do develop higher elevation snow is possible given the low snow levels. It will also feel blustery on Sunday given the colder temperatures and increasing winds.

Quick rebound on Monday as high pressure rebuilds with mild and dry conditions next week. Looking down the road much farther models hint at some additional precip chances around the 7/8th of March, but it doesn't look promising.

At this rate, it looks like San Francisco will be dry for February, which will tie the zero precip record from 1864. If one projects precip farther out San Francisco may not tip a bucket until after March 7. If that holds true it could put San Francisco near the longest dry streak during the wet season, which currently stands at 43 days.

AVIATION. as of 4:00 AM PST Thursday . For 12Z TAFs. Mainly clear skies will prevail through the period with a few scattered high clouds anticipated to stream across the region. Light winds will prevail through the morning with moderate onshore flow through the afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds will persist through the morning with moderate onshore flow expected this afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds will persist through the morning with moderate onshore flow expected this afternoon.

MARINE. as of 2:55 AM PST Thursday . Relatively light northerly winds will prevail across the coastal waters today and Friday. Northerly winds will begin to strengthen over the northern outer waters Friday afternoon as a low pressure system slides south across the region. Strong northerly winds will spread south through the weekend and into next week. A moderate longer period northwest swell will move across the coastal waters through the end of the week. Another long period northwesterly swell is anticipated to move across the region over the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tday. NONE.



PUBLIC FORECAST: MM AVIATION: CW MARINE: CW

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46092 - MBM1 6 mi40 min ENE 9.7 54°F 54°F1022.7 hPa (-0.0)
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 12 mi44 min Calm G 0 49°F 1024 hPa38°F
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 14 mi72 min NNE 1 50°F 1022 hPa38°F
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 15 mi57 min 55°F2 ft
MEYC1 17 mi81 min SSE 1 G 1.9 49°F 57°F1023 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 20 mi57 min 55°F5 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 21 mi37 min N 9.7 G 12 54°F 55°F1023.7 hPa53°F
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 34 mi57 min 55°F6 ft
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 48 mi57 min Calm G 1 51°F 60°F1024.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA14 mi64 minNNW 310.00 miFair46°F36°F68%1023.8 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA19 mi63 minESE 510.00 miFair52°F30°F43%1024 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA24 mi64 minE 910.00 miFair44°F35°F71%1024.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWVI

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW7W5W7W6NW4NW3CalmN3N5NW5N4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmNW3
1 day ago4N3CalmCalmSE3CalmSW6SW7NW6W6W5W3N3NW4N3CalmN5N3N5N4CalmE4NW4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE4SW6SW5SW5S5S3SW3CalmSW3CalmN5Calm4NW3CalmNW3CalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay, California (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:33 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:18 AM PST     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:58 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:41 AM PST     0.48 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:44 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:35 PM PST     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:59 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:00 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:53 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.2-00.20.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.