Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Virginia Beach, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:48PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:43 PM EST (01:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:21PMMoonset 4:16AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ656 Coastal Waters From Cape Charles Light To Virginia- North Carolina Border Out To 20 Nm- 701 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of rain early this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers late.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt late in the evening, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft late in the evening.
Fri..E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ600 701 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong area of low pressure will track across the great lakes region through Tuesday, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period with low pressure over the southeast states.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Virginia Beach, VA
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location: 36.83, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 100011 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 711 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure tracks into eastern Canada on Tuesday. The trailing strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. High pressure returns late Wednesday and Thursday. Another area of low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast late this week before approaching the area by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 355 PM EST Monday .

Late afternoon weather analysis shows upper troughing extending from the nrn Plains to the SW CONUS. WV satellite imagery was continuing to show mid-level moisture streaming from the tropical Pacific to our local area in WSW-SW flow aloft. Additionally, there are several mid-level impulses embedded in the WSW-SW flow aloft passing through our region. Winds are mainly S-SW across the area w/ high pressure offshore and strong (~993 mb) low pressure over the nrn Great Lakes. The trailing cold front extended SSW from MI to eastern TX. Still quite a temperature contrast across the area (likely enhanced by ongoing rain across northwestern zones). Temperatures are still in the low-mid 40s from LKU-FVX, around 50F across the Richmond metro, and in the 60s over coastal SE VA/NE NC. Fog has finally dissipated inland, although there is some fog in areas along the Atlantic coast of MD/VA. (while it has warmed to the mid-upper 50s across coastal SE VA/NE NC). Fog from earlier is dissipating (VSBYs are now above 1 mile in most locations), so will not issue another SPS. Rain continues across the northwest half of the CWA, but it largely remains dry over SE VA/NE NC. Near term /hi-res guidance shows light to occasionally moderate rain continuing from the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore through the evening before becoming more spotty in nature. Still could see scattered showers across the MD Ern Shore through the first part of tonight. Just a few showers possible across areas S of I-64/E of I-95 through 00z before becoming dry tonight.

Temperatures will continue slowly rising across inland portions of VA this evening. Expect mid 50s along I-95 in VA by 00z, but it will likely remain in the 40s over the NW Piedmont. Mainly cloudy this evening, but a few breaks in the clouds are evident across SE VA/NE NC. Mostly cloudy-overcast skies continue through tonight.

Steady/slowly rising temperatures expected tonight due to the SW flow and WAA in place ahead of the cold front approaching the mountains. Looks like a cloudy and mild night with more stratus than fog (due to SSW winds remaining around 10-15 mph). Temperatures are expected to rise to around 60F across central VA by 12z Tue, while remaining in the low 60s across SE zones. Cooler across the Piedmont, with temperatures only in the low 50s by 12z Tue.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 355 PM EST Monday .

Tuesday starts off cloudy and mild with scattered showers possible across western zones during the morning (dry across the SE). Clouds break up a bit across the SE while the coverage of showers increases across the west as the cold front approaches by late aftn-early evening. Have chc PoPs across most areas (except SE VA/NE NC) during the morning increasing to 60-80% in most areas by early evening as the front approaches (still 20-50% in SE VA/NE NC). Unseasonably warm (especially SE) along with a breezy SW wind (gusts to 25 mph near the coast). The temperature forecast is a bit more tricky across the northwest where clouds/rain could hold temperatures down (despite 850 mb temps of 10-13C). Forecast highs range from the low-mid 60s NW to the mid 70s in coastal SE VA/NE NC.

The cold front crosses the area Tuesday evening-Tuesday night. PoPs ramp up to 80-100% in all zones Tue night (as most of the pcpn will occur behind the front). Winds turn to the N Tue night, allowing surface temperatures to rapidly fall. However, strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis will be ongoing throughout the night as the mid-level trough axis remains to our W. As the coldest air will lag a bit behind the front, temperatures will only fall to 33-34F across the N, mid-upper 30s over central/srn VA, and around 40F over NE NC. Expect a changeover to snow from Louisa County to the MD Ern Shore by 09-12z Wed, while pcpn remains in the form of rain elsewhere. Colder air continues to filter in Wed AM, so expect a potential changeover to sleet/snow for areas as far south as RIC-SBY by 12-15z Wed (some question as to whether there will still be a warm nose present in the 800-700 mb layer from central VA to the wrn part of the Lower MD Ern Shore). Kept the mention of sleet out of the forecast for now given the uncertainty. For now, have less than 0.5" of accumulation from the NW Piedmont to Dorchester County, with no accumulation S of an OFP- SBY line. This matches up well with the 12z/09 EPS probs of > 1" of snow, which are 10-20% from RIC- SBY, but increase to 40% over the NW Piedmont. Little to no impacts are expected as temperatures remain above freezing Wed AM.

Likely-categorical PoPs continue Wed morning with decreasing PoPs west to east Wed afternoon as the cold front moves offshore. In fact, wrn zones will likely become partly sunny late. Not much rise in temps given the clouds and CAA. Highs Wed mainly in the 40s. Strong high pressure over the Upper Midwest will build into the region Wednesday night. An additional CAA surge Wed night will lead to overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 20s NW, mid to upper 20s for the I-95 corridor, and upper 20s and low 30s for SE VA and NE NC. The aforementioned surface high will become centered over/just north of the local area on Thursday with decreasing clouds and winds. Daytime high temperatures will only make it into the upper 30s and low 40s on Thursday. Models continue to keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly overnight lows range from the low 20s NW to upper 30s SE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 230 PM EST Monday .

The extended starts out cold Friday morning with high pressure starting to slowly lift NE. Lows Thu night will be in the low to mid 20s most areas with mid 30s across southeast VA and NE NC. Surface high pressure continues to shift to the NE and E Friday but will still extend a ridging wedge along and east of the higher terrain. GFS/ECMWF solutions still diverge regarding timing for the expected moisture lifting up from the south with the GFS slightly faster. The timing of moisture and cold air will make for some p-type issues Friday morning. Blending the timing of the ECMWF and GFS gives a slight chance to chance of snow early Friday morning along and west of I95 and south of I64 from 06-12z Fri. As moisture spreads north the chance for snow and eventually a rain/snow mix spreads north across central VA and portions of MD Eastern Shore for a few hours. Increasing southerly slow and the transient nature of the surface ridge will allow any wintry precip Friday morning to change over to all rain between 9am and noon Friday warming from south to north.

The wet period extends into the weekend with the GFS and ECMWF in better agreement. The wettest period look to be from late Friday into early Saturday. Will increase PoPs from the south/southwest during the day on Friday but the bulk of the precip is expected to fall Friday night into early Saturday as low pressure lifts northward across the region with the models in agreement. Conditions Sunday look mostly dry with some cloud cover. High temps on Friday range from the low 40s NW, close to 50 degrees for the Richmond metro, and low to mid 50s for areas east of I-95. Not looking particularly cold behind the weekend system either, highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 710 PM EST Monday .

Low pressure is tracking through the Great Lakes as of 00z, with high pressure centered well off the Southeast coast. VFR conditions are occurring at PHF/ORF/ECG/SBY under mid and high clouds, with IFR cigs persisting at RIC. Conditions are expected to gradually improve to MVFR then VFR at RIC, and periodic IFR cigs are possible at SBY through 04z. MVFR cigs are possible at PHF/ORF later tonight into Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing at ECG. Otherwise, light rain will lift N of the region tonight into Tuesday morning, with a SW wind of 10-15kt. A cold front will approach from the NW Tuesday morning, then drop into the region Tuesday aftn. A SW wind is forecast to gusts to around 20kt at ORF/ECG prior to the frontal passage. Light rain and MVFR cigs are expected to develop behind the front Tuesday aftn into Tuesday evening, with the wind shifting from SW to NW.

The cold front crosses the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but a large area of post-frontal light to moderate rain will track across the area Tuesday night before ending from W to E during the day on Wednesday. Flight restrictions are likely during this timeframe. There is a chc that pcpn changes over to PL/SN Wednesday AM before ending at SBY, with a slightly lesser chc of PL/SN at RIC. Not expecting much in the way of impacts from wintry pcpn. Pcpn should stay in the form of RA at the sern terminals. High pressure builds into the area for Wednesday/Thursday, allowing VFR/dry conditions to return. Another area of low pressure brings rain and degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night, with the potential of a brief RA/PL mix during the onset at RIC. Weak high pressure builds in from the W Saturday.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EST Monday .

Southwesterly flow dominates across the waters this afternoon as the region is in a small lull between a weak low that slid up the coast earlier this morning and the gradient ahead of an approaching cold front that is still in western portions of the Ohio Valley. As that front begins to approach tonight, the southerly to southwesterly winds will begin to increase to 15 to 20 kt during the evening and overnight hours. Seas have already been on the increase in the coastal waters as a result of the coastal low with waves 4 to 7 FT. These waves are expected to remain SCA levels through the overnight hours. So have left SCA headlines in place with the coastal areas already under SCA flags and the remainder of the Bay and Currituck Sound beginning at 7 PM although it might take a few more hours for the winds to increase to the 15 to 20 kt range. For now still thinking that the area rivers will remain below SCA levels.

The SW winds will continue on Tuesday, but as the front crosses the area in the late afternoon will see a switch to the NW and a brief surge to 20 to 25 kt some gust to 30 kt possible Tuesday night. So have kept SCA headlines on the Bay and Currituck sound with the SW through midday on Tuesday. Another round of SCA conditions are expected Tuesday night, but will not add the SCA at this time with one in effect now and about a 12 hour break in conditions expected. For the coastal areas the SCA flag was extended to include the surge winds behind the front Tuesday night as waves will keep the SCA conditions on going through Tuesday night.

On Wednesday will see a brief lull in conditions a cold advection continues but with SW flow aloft on the back side of the front the winds will temporarily relax as a wave of low pressure slides along the front. But a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive on Wed night as a strong area of high pressure slides into the region. This will kick winds back to 15 to 25 kt as the strong high builds in Wed night but then as the sfc high settles over the area on Thursday winds will fall back to the 10 to 15 kt range. So SCA headlines may need to extended into Thursday morning.

Conditions for Friday into Saturday are uncertain from a timing stand point as the flow turns NE then E as a wave of low pressure develops over the SE US and lifts into the Mid-Atlantic States. The GFS is about 12 hour faster than the ECMWF. So will have to wait for future model runs to get a better handle on the timing and how strong the easterly flow will be. But would expect SCA conditions with the easterly flow and likely elevated seas.

CLIMATE. Record highs for 12/10:

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/MPR NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . ERI/MPR LONG TERM . RHR/JAO AVIATION . AJZ/ERI MARINE . CMF/ESS CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44064 13 mi53 min SSW 14 G 16 59°F 1013.9 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 15 mi43 min 50°F5 ft
44087 16 mi43 min 49°F2 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 19 mi205 min SSW 8.9 G 13
44072 30 mi53 min W 16 G 18 56°F
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 44 mi43 min 54°F6 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 46 mi43 min 54°F5 ft

Wind History for Cape Henry, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA3 mi47 minSSW 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1014.6 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi52 minSSW 1710.00 miFair65°F57°F78%1013.8 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA18 mi1.7 hrsS 1010.00 miOvercast63°F57°F81%1014.4 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi48 minS 1110.00 miFair63°F59°F91%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNTU

Wind History from NTU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4N4N4NE6NE6N7NE6E6E5E6E5E8E11E14E11
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2 days agoSW8SW6SW6SW6W3NW4N7N9N9N11N10N10N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Inside Channel, Rudee Inlet, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:16 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:46 PM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:15 PM EST     0.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1-0.6-0.10.40.80.90.80.50.2-0.3-0.8-1-1.1-0.9-0.5-00.40.60.50.3-0-0.5-0.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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