Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:13PM Friday January 17, 2020 3:16 PM HST (01:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:17AMMoonset 11:58AM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 171315 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 415 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A large upper level low centered over the Brooks Range combined with a 514 Dm low in the Gulf is leading to generally benign conditions across much of mainland Alaska. The subsequent zonal flow and weakening pressure gradient is causing outflow gap winds to continue to diminish across terrain gaps in the Chugach. Precipitation will remain offshore, however as such the prevailing easterly flow will bring onshore snow squalls to Kodiak and a Winter Storm Watch is currently in effect with 6 to 12 inches of snow possible Saturday morning.

A ~980 mb North Pacific low is bringing rain and/or snow to the western and central Aleutians. Its associated inverted trough is likewise bringing scattered precipitation to the Bering.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good agreement synoptically regarding the aforementioned upper level pattern. As usual in this setup, the main source of difficulty in this forecast lies with the snow squalls over Kodiak associated with the moist, easterly flow over the Gulf. Large scale models do not have the resolution to depict mesoscale snow bands, while the mesoscale models do not agree on where they will exactly occur over the Island.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A large upper high over the state will shift east through Saturday night. Upper level flow over the area is from the east, and will gradually become more southerly. A series of inverted troughs is embedded in the easterly flow across the Gulf. These features will help to enhance shower activity across the Gulf and over Kodiak Island through tonight. Later today, a surface low will develop over the central Gulf and quickly intensify as it tracks toward Kodiak Island. As it does, widespread snow and gusty northerly winds will develop over the island. The snow is expected to become heavy at times for locations like Kodiak City through Saturday morning. The combination of snow and winds gusting to possibly as high as 40 mph will result in blowing snow and reduced visibilities. The easterly flow will also act to bring warmer air to the island by late Saturday morning. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the details of this storm.

Inland portions of Southcentral will remain mainly clear and cold through Saturday. Along the coast, some snow is possible at times as systems pass westward through the Gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Cold temperatures and clear skies will persist across Southwest Alaska today with high pressure still situated over the region. Easterly waves moving over Kodiak and the Gulf bringing cloud cover to the Bristol Bay region and the Kuskokwim Delta on Saturday will be the key in how long the cold and dry conditions last. Moisture will begin to move in near King Salmon and Dillingham on Saturday afternoon, which could bring a few snow showers to the surrounding areas. However, there is still uncertainty in where these waves will track and the potential for snow over the southern mainland.

Temperatures will see a slight rise over the next few days, which will be dependent on when the cloud cover moves in. Clouds will move over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley Saturday afternoon, resulting in mostly cloudy conditions across all of Southwest. This will keep the Lower Kuskokwim Valley the coldest spot once again. By Sunday, the threat for snow showers over interior Bristol Bay will diminish, but there could still be a few lingering showers around the region.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A front over the eastern Bering and Aleutian Chain will persist, keeping gusty conditions in the forecast through the afternoon when it begins to weaken. A gale force low sitting just south of Adak this morning will keep on its track into the North Pacific this afternoon. Snow showers stretching from Dutch Harbor to the Alaska Peninsula associated with the active weather pattern will allow for little snow accumulation through Saturday.

By Saturday afternoon, a new low will form just south of the eastern Aleutians. However, there is still disagreement on the placement of the low center and where the strongest core of winds will be as it tracks northward through Sunday. Strong northeasterly flow, along with widespread rain and snow showers, will continue across the central and western Bering and Aleutian Chain through Sunday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Marine weather still looks quiet in both the Bering and Gulf of Alaska. A weak low pressure system will be present in the Gulf on Monday, providing some localized areas of small craft advisory winds on the north gulf coast. Then it moves inland and the Gulf becomes quiet. The Bering will have light westerly flow, switching to a light northeast late Tuesday. While low pressure is in the area, we are confident it will be weak with little impact, so moderate to high confidence in the marine forecast.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday).

The long term forecast starts off with the upcoming pattern shift already taken place. A long wave, upper level trough looks to exist stretching southeast across the Bering from Eastern Siberia all the way down into the Gulf of Alaska. This means generally unsettled weather for our forecast area to start the week. More specifically, we are still expecting low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and zonal flow in the Bering and Southwest AK.

However, by Wednesday model agreement falls apart. Two of our heavy hitters - the GFS and ECMWF - have very different solutions for our forecast area, the Gulf of Alaska in particular. This means past early next week there is not a good answer for the forecast and we have low confidence in any solution past Tuesday. We will have to wait and see what future solutions come up with.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory: 171. MARINE . Gale Warning: 120 130-132 138 139 155. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 139 160 180 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AP SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . BB


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