Wednesday, October28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

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Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 5:59PM Wednesday October 28, 2020 3:36 PM HST (01:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:14PMMoonset 3:41AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 290123 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 523 PM AKDT Wed Oct 28 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A weak surface low southeast of Cordova continues to produce showers across the northern Gulf and is extending clouds over Prince William Sound as well as portions of the Copper River Basin this afternoon. Northwesterly flow is also extending cloud cover from Kamishak Gap across the Southern Cook Inlet and Barren Islands. The main weather feature for Southcentral, however, is the persistent fog / low stratus for the the southern Susitna Valley, Matanuska Valley, Anchorage Bowl, and the northwestern portion of the Kenai Peninsula. This area of fog and low stratus is expected to remain in place throughout the evening and into Thursday morning.

Elsewhere, low stratus clouds remain over Southwest Alaska, with only a few breaks across interior Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley. Farther west, a nearly stationary low over the western Bering is extending a surface front with areas of light rain from the Pribilofs to the eastern Aleutians.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model agreement remains good through the next couple of days. Guidance is keying in on a general increase in the outflow winds across coastal Southcentral for Thursday as a shortwave trough moves over the region from the northwest. This feature slides out of the region by Friday with a near zonal flow. The more zonal flow will allow a second wave and developing surface low over the Gulf to track east-northeast and remain east of Prince William Sound with moisture mainly confined to the eastern Copper River Basin. Out west, models are also in good agreement with the current storm-force low slowly weakening as it slides south into the North Pacific while a second low move closer to Attu by late Saturday.

AVIATION.

PANC . Fog and low stratus are expected to remain over the terminal through the afternoon and evening hours. Visibility may improve slightly for a time this afternoon and evening as the fog thins and lifts. While conditions may briefly improve, the overall synoptic pattern supports its persistence. Thus, the potential remains for dense fog to return later this evening and continue through Thursday morning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight through Friday) .

The primary forecast concerns this afternoon include persistent freezing fog around Cook Inlet, the polar air mass moving into Southcentral, and where chances of snow remain in the forecast.

Starting with the fog, it has persisted for much of the day, particularly in Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, along Turnagain Arm, and interior portions of the Kenai Peninsula. Since the sun is no longer strong enough to burn the fog off entirely, and with no change in the overall weather pattern tonight, it appears highly likely that the fog will return to dense intensity. This is most likely of course where the fog is presently. So for Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, and areas along the mountains on the Kenai Peninsula, expect the freezing fog to persist overnight, becoming dense at times, and contributing to hazardous travel conditions. A piece of good news however is that the fog is already leaving behind its telltale signature, beautiful rime ice on all the trees. With even colder air working in over the coming days, that ice is unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon, adding to the picturesque Alaska landscape.

As mentioned above, a polar air mass is already beginning to encroach on Southcentral from the north this afternoon. This polar air has full upper level support with a digging trough moving in from the northwest. Thus, the mountains will not do much to block the cold air from moving into the area. Temperatures will gradually cool into the weekend. The fog may hold overnight lows up, but have also kept Anchorage and the Mat-Su from getting above freezing during the day. Thus, see no reason anywhere away from the immediate coast will get above freezing anytime in the foreseeable future. Highs will generally hover in the 20s each day, with lows in the teens (except for the foggy areas tonight), with single digit lows expected in the normally cold and clear spots.

As for chances of snow, only two areas will have that concern through Friday. First up will be the Copper River Basin. A well defined circulation is over the northern Gulf, just off Cape Suckling. Associated moisture is drifting north over the Basin. With the low not moving much over the next few days, the mountains and far eastern Copper Basin will be under a constant threat of light snowfall, but outside of the mountains are not expected to amount to more than a few inches over several days. A point of uncertainty lies with how far west the snow can get, with Glennallen on that western fringe. If the snow moves in, particularly with an upper level disturbance digging in during the day Thursday into Thursday night, there could be enough moisture and lift to result in a few inches of snow from Glennallen east. For now, the forecast is for most of that snowfall to remain east of Glennallen proper. On Friday afternoon into Friday night, a front approaching from the south could bring chances of snow to Kodiak. However, the question of whether there is enough cold air to overcome the warm sea surface temperatures provides the most uncertainty. Either way the chance of snow is only at the start, as warmer air sooner or later will change the precipitation over to rain, which will be the predominant precipitation type in Kodiak for most of the event.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday) .

Low stratus and overcast sky coverage will continue into at least Thursday morning before clouds begin to clear. An upper level ridge over the Bering will ease cloud developments over Southwest Alaska in the coming days as the ridge moves closer to the coastal area Thursday morning. Looking ahead, two separate shortwaves from north of Yukon Delta, combined with cold air advection aloft and the onset of the upper level ridge from the Bering will help reduce air temperatures in the teens to mid 20s between Thursday night and Friday night. A chance of snow is feasible over lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta tonight and Thursday, with a chance of rain over AKPEN tonight and Thursday before conditions start to elevate there beginning Thursday afternoon. A frontal boundary from the Aleutians will extend to the south of AKPEN on Friday morning, which could bring more rain and a chance of snow through the end of the week.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday) .

A Northwest Pacific low will bring gales over much of central Bering and the Aleutians on Thursday and Thursday night, while storm force winds will concentrate heavily over Adak Island on Thursday. A lot of rain and a chance of snow will associate with this expected system, but overall, the storm low is still expected to stay south of the Aleutians into the weekend. Winds will gradually weaken on Friday as the low treks back over the North Pacific through Friday night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

Northwesterly gales are likely across the bays and passes of the eastern Aleutians and southern coastal AKPEN late Saturday into Sunday. Winds and waves over this area will generally diminish through the day Sunday; however, some gales are still possible southwest of Kodiak Island into Monday. A gale-force front skirts the western Aleutians late Saturday and the central Aleutians SUnday into Monday before before moving south.

For the Gulf, northwesterly gales are likely Sunday morning into Monday across the northern Gulf, especially through bays and passes and out over the Barren Islands.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7).

The main weather story moving through the weekend and into next week will be the intrusion of arctic air across the Southern Mainland in the wake of a vigorous surface low moving from the western Gulf to the Alaska Panhandle. The core of the coldest air looks to arrive on Monday as the polar upper-level low settles over Southcentral. 850 mb temperatures (~4500ft AGL) look to plummet to -18 to -20C across interior Southwest and over the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula. The Copper River Basin could see 850 mb temperatures fall to -22 to -25C. This would translate to highs struggling to climb into the teens to lower 20s for most locations not immediately along the northern Gulf coast by early next week. Daytime highs for parts of the Copper River Basin during this time could remain near zero. Needless to say, low temperatures would likely be in the single digits for most areas and well below zero for the Copper River Basin and normally colder locations like sheltered valleys.

Gusty outflow winds will also remain a potential along the immediate coast through next week due to the build up of colder air inland and a lingering gradient between an interior ridge and trough along the coast. Models, however, are indicating that one or more compact, meso-lows could spin up at the surface over the northern Gulf due to the interaction of the upper-level dynamics and the increased surface winds and thermal gradient. If this does happen, there could be additional cloud cover that could help moderate temperatures nearer the coast and also bring about an increased chance for snow showers through early next week.

Farther to the west, a ridge of high pressure will build over the western Aleutians and expand east by next week. Multiple shortwaves diving south between the ridge and the aforementioned polar low to the east will allow for clouds, snow showers, and gusty northerly winds to persist from the central Bering to the Southwest Alaska coast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale 165 170 172-176 178 179 180 Storm 177 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . TM


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