Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:12AM||Sunset 6:56PM||Saturday August 24, 2019 2:21 PM HST (00:21 UTC)||Moonrise 12:00AM||Moonset 2:07PM||Illumination 30%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AKHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for -  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxak68 pafc 241300|
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
500 am akdt Sat aug 24 2019
Analysis and upper levels
In the upper levels, the pattern has become much less chaotic over
the past 24 hours. A longwave trough is over eastern alaska, with
axis over the copper river basin and extending over prince william
sound. The cutoff upper level low is a bit further south and west
this morning, centered about halfway between the pribilofs and
dutch harbor. A ridge is well west of the western aleutians, with
associated ridging nosing in over the northern bering. Another
trough extends southwestward from the upper level low into the
north pacific. A zonal north pacific jet streak remains well south
of the aleutians.
The expected isolated to scattered shower activity in fact
developed yesterday afternoon, primarily along the mountains, then
those showers moved into a few of the valley areas, like palmer,
late in the day. The trough that helped force that shower activity
has now moved east to the copper river basin and prince william
sound. Satellite imagery shows smoke from the swan lake fire now
being directed south and east into the kenai mountains and seward.
A dense smoke advisory remains in effect. A flood advisory for the
snow glacier dammed lake release also remains in effect.
The models remain in excellent agreement through Sunday with the
movement of the large scale lows and highs across southern alaska.
Forecast challenges remain forecasting the movement and density of
the wildfire smoke. Much of southern alaska continues to await the
return of widespread precipitation, but unfortunately the weather
pattern remains unsupportive. Thus, forecast confidence is high
with relatively little going on to introduce uncertainty to the
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for much of the
day today. It's possible smoke may bring visibilities down
slightly anytime during the day, but the reductions are not
expected to be significant. Tonight, the winds will flip around
back to the southwest and then southeast in the lower atmosphere.
This is expected to result in the return of some smoke from the
swan lake fire back to anchorage. The turnagain arm wind will
strengthen Sunday morning, which should reduce the time when a
threat of dense smoke will exist.
Fire weather (southcentral)
The north to northwest winds over the area fires will gradually
diminish through the day today. On Sunday, the winds will return
to the southeasterly direction, increasing to the 10 to 20 mph
range through the gaps in the kenai mountains. This will cause the
smoke from the swan lake fire to return towards the north, mainly
into the susitna valley. There remains some question as to how
much of the smoke gets into anchorage. It will certainly increase
the chances of the smoke returning to anchorage, but it is by no
means a slam dunk forecast. The turnagain arm wind may instead
push the smoke westward over the inlet and block the worst of it
from getting into anchorage and the matanuska valley.
The southerly winds on Sunday may lead to worsening air quality in
talkeetna and points north from the mckinley and deshka fires
along with transported smoke from the swan lake fire as well.
Southwesterly winds over the copper basin, especially by Sunday
afternoon, may bring smoke from the tokaina fire near tazlina lake
towards glennallen as well.
A rare cold weather statistic was set this past Thursday, the
22nd. Kenai airport dropped down to 32 degrees for a low,
officially marking its first freeze of the season. This is 11
days earlier than the average (september 2nd). This was the 17th
earliest first freeze in kenai recorded history, and the earliest
first freeze there since 2000. In both 2004 and 2014, the first
freeze happened on august 31st. Those were the only years since
the turn of the century that the first freeze occurred before
On the flip side, anchorage tied its all time record of
consecutive days of low temperatures above 45 degrees this
morning. It's now been 90 days since the last time the
temperatures was 45 degrees or colder. This ties the 2015 and
1992 seasons. The forecast keeps low temperatures above that
threshold for the foreseeable future.
.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 today
through Monday night)...
the upper trough over southcentral this morning will exit eastward
this afternoon, with a short-wave ridge building in behind it.
Expect a dry day for most of the region with increasing sunshine
and continued above normal high temperatures. There will be a few
diurnal showers as the trough exits, primarily across the|
southeastern copper river basin and mountains of eastern prince
william sound. Gusty offshore winds in seward and whittier areas
will lighten up during the afternoon.
Tonight will start out clear and temperatures will quickly fall.
Interestingly, all of this dry weather and clear skies has been
leading to colder than normal night-time lows, with some isolated
areas having reached freezing temperatures this past week. In a
"normal" august, abundant clouds and rain usually lead to warmer
temperatures at night. Anyway, it looks favorable for increasing
clouds beginning late tonight and continuing through the day
Sunday. This will be due to the combination of a short-wave
trough tracking from the bering sea into the gulf and another
short-wave dropping down from the northwest. The strongest forcing
and bulk of rain will remain over the gulf of alaska once again.
For southcentral, there is a chance of showers, primarily over
prince william sound, the eastern kenai peninsula, and along area
mountains. There could be a few light showers over the valleys,
but as has been the case of late, anything that falls will be
brief and light. The presence of clouds will lead to a somewhat
Both troughs will exit Monday with upper level ridging and
offshore flow redeveloping. This may sound like a broken record,
but the dry weather will continue.
Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A shortwave shifting south over the akpen overnight will give way
to a ridge of high pressure building across southwest alaska for
the weekend. This will result in partly cloudy and dry conditions
across the region with any chance of an isolated shower mainly
confined to the higher elevations of the kilbuck mountains and
alaska range. Winds will also remain light through the weekend.
Patchy fog is possible along the coast early this morning with
more widespread patchy fog across the southwest early Sunday
morning as the ridge axis settles across the area. Some increasing
clouds and scattered showers along the coast are possible late
Sunday into Monday as a weak shortwave rotates over the ridge.
Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
High pressure over the far western aleutians will continue to
slowly drift east through the weekend and into the first half of
next week. Widespread low stratus and areas of fog will accompany
this stable airmass as it tracks east. Ahead of this ridge,
northerly winds will persist across the eastern bering as a series
of shortwaves drops south bringing periods of rain to the eastern
bering and aleutians through the weekend. As the ridge moves east
over the central bering on Sunday, a front will slide over the
western aleutians with rain and southeasterly small-craft advisory
winds late Sunday through Monday.
Marine (days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)
There is high confidence that a low forming just south of the
alaska peninsula Sunday afternoon will traverse the gulf from
west to east, reaching the alaska panhandle by Monday evening.
This low will bring easterly small craft winds to the northern
gulf coast for Monday. As the low departs to the east, a weak
trough will remain over the gulf through midweek. Meanwhile in the
bering, a ridge of high pressure moves over the eastern bering
Tuesday afternoon, allowing a possible gale force low to approach
the western bering Wednesday afternoon. At this time, there is
low confidence regarding the strength and track of this bering
.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
the general long-term pattern includes an elongated upper level
trough over the mainland while a ridge builds over the bering.
Several shortwaves will propagate across the southern mainland
bringing mostly unsettled, showery conditions through the middle
of next week. One key feature that model solutions have locked
onto is a low entering the western bering Wednesday afternoon and
strengthening as it progresses eastward through the end of the
week. If this pans out, the ridge will be suppressed and a pretty
significant pattern change would be underway, bringing more fall-
like conditions to the southern mainland by the first weekend of
Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Dense smoke advisory: 121 125.
Flood advisory: 121 125.
Fire weather... None.
Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tm
marine long term... Ko
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