Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:56AM||Sunset 5:51PM||Saturday December 7, 2019 3:44 AM HST (13:44 UTC)||Moonrise 2:25PM||Moonset 2:32AM||Illumination 81%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AKHourly EDIT Help
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FXAK68 PAFC 071252 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 352 AM AKST Sat Dec 7 2019
ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.
An upper level ridge in place over the panhandle has become more amplified as an upper level low over Southwest Alaska lifts northward. The corresponding surface low is centered over the eastern Bering and its associated front stretches over the western Gulf. This has allowed warm, southerly flow to arrive over the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the Kenai Peninsula. Temperatures have warmed quickly this morning as precipitation that initially started as snow in Seward quickly changed over to rain, and Homer is at a balmy 42 degrees. Meanwhile farther west, a low continues to spin just west of Shemya. Cold, westerly flow persists over the southern Bering as the low center slowly drifts southward and tracks along the Aleutian Chain.
Model solutions have come into better agreement compared to the last few days, however there still remain some uncertainties with the series of lows that will impact the southern half of the state over the next few days. Models first diverge by Sun afternoon as a North Pacific low tracks northward and moves over the Alaska Peninsula and into the Bristol Bay area by Mon morning. There is little agreement on exact placement and strength of this low as it lifts northward over the western part of the state, however models do agree on a strong front associated with this low bringing warm/windy conditions to the northern Gulf coast. One feature model solutions continue to agree on is a strong upper level ridge remaining in place over the Alaska Panhandle/ALCAN border through at least early next week. Overall, this translates into an active pattern with areas of low pressure from the North Pacific continuously being steered into the southern Mainland.
AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions expected. Wind shear is the main concern today as winds at the terminal will be out of the north with stronger southeasterly flow aloft.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Strong south flow aloft will bring a large stream of subtropical moisture through the area today and tonight. A mixture of precipitation types are expected around Cook inlet, with rain, snow, and freezing rain all possible as temperatures slowly climb. Winds along Turnagain Arm should be fairly strong through tonight with a strong surface gradient associated with a low in the western Gulf. Not a lot of precipitation is expected in the Cook Inlet area through this evening as the low level flow will have an easterly downsloping component. Precipitation will pick up somewhat later tonight into Sunday morning as the surface low moves inland and the downsloping weakens. An even stronger system will push into the Gulf Sunday afternoon and continue northward through Sunday night. This will bring strong winds across the Gulf, and another round of strong winds through Turnagain Arm. Temperatures will warm even more with this next system.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1-3: Sat through Mon).
The active pattern across Southwest Alaska starts off with a quick moving low system tracking from Bristol Bay this morning into the northern Bering later today. Most areas have transitioned from snow to rain as this low brings in warming temperatures to the region. Strong south to southwesterly winds accompany the low, with possible gusts nearing 50 knots along coastal areas. Colder air behind this system begins to move back in overnight tonight into Sunday, allowing any new precipitation to fall as snow. By Sunday morning, Southwest Alaska will see a brief period of dry conditions before the focus shifts to a new pattern.
A fast moving North Pacific low will begin to lift north to the Alaska Peninsula by Sunday afternoon and continue its path northward through Monday morning. This should be another warm system, keeping most precipitation falling as rain. Higher elevations along the Alaska Range will likely see snow during this event.The heaviest amounts of precipitation will be near Iliamna to Port Alsworth, which could see up to two inches of QPF from this system.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1-2: Sat through Sun) .
A gale force low in the eastern Bering will continue to lift into the northern Bering through tomorrow morning. Strong southerly flow moves across the eastern Bering Sunday morning before the next big system approaches the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday afternoon. Models have come into better agreement with the placement and strength of this low as it lifts northward to over Nunivak Island by Mon morning. Winds will likely peak Monday morning into the afternoon with high end sustained gales, with possible storm force gusts over the eastern Bering.
Over the western Bering, a low centered over Shemya this morning will keep a small area of gale force winds in our forecast zone, but will quickly move into the North Pacific. Weak northerly flow will follow behind this system through Sunday afternoon, strengthening to small craft advisory winds overnight Sunday into Monday.
MARINE (Days 3 through 5). Monday there is a potent low near Bristol Bay which has the potential to produce gale force winds and also produce light to heavy freezing spray near Nunivak Island. A second low which will be south of Adak also has the potential for producing small craft to gale force winds. As time elapses, the Bristol Bay low retrogrades towards NE Russia and the Adak low moves towards Kodiak and phases with another low. Expect the gusty winds and enhanced sea states to move into the Gulf of Alaska. With this cold pattern in place, expect the sea ice to grow for both the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).
The vagaries of the models continue to influence the confidence level in the long term forecast period. Looking at both deterministic and ensemble guidance categorically the confidence level is below average. There are a few items that can be gleaned. Expect a highly progressive pattern with the longwave pattern to retain residence over the Bering and the north Pacific. There are multiple lows from Kamchatka to southcentral Alaska this forecast period. Although for the Bering and the NW Pacific the placement and the intensities of the lows are not in sync. The storm that will impact Southcentral this weekend will break the cold snap with temperatures in the Anchorage Metro Area possibly getting back up into the 40s this Sunday. Also noteworthy and very plausible, the GFS at this time is suggesting an atmospheric river will move into Southcentral on Monday.
AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisor: 155. MARINE . Gales: 119, 125, 130, 131, 132, 136, 137, 138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 178, 179, 180, 181, 185, 351, 352, 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . PS
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