Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 6:47PM Saturday March 28, 2020 7:43 PM HST (05:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:25AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 290101 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 501 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The pattern is generally dominated by a sharp trough moving through Southern AK with a ridge building over the Bering Sea. In the base of the trough is a surface low pressure center. This feature has produced some light snow across parts of Southcentral AK with heavier snow amounts and localized Blizzard conditions across SW AK. There is some cold air pushing down the backside of this feature as well, which will allow winds to intensify with a sharp thermal gradient. The coldest air in the domain remains over the Copper River Basin where temperatures dropped to about -10F in certain locations earlier this morning.

Over the Bering, the building ridge is the dominant feature. It is building over the Eastern Bering and helping to increase gap winds through the Alaska Peninsula. Further to the west, a decaying warm occlusion is pressing up against the Central Aleutians. This is bringing some slightly warmer air, light rain, and easterly winds.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in generally good agreement through Monday night. There are minor discrepancies with the timing of the outflow wind event in parts of Southcentral, but all models agree that it will become gusty in many of the typical locations. Hi-res guidance and hand edits were used to fine-tune that aspect of this forecast package.

AVIATION. PANC . Generally VFR conditions. Cold advection will increase northerly winds across the airport complex tonight and Sunday. Timing of the onset of the gusty conditions could vary by 1-2 hours either direction.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The main story for Southcentral over the next few days will be outflow winds along the northern Gulf coast. Winds will increase tonight through the morning on Sunday, and will remain elevated in most locations until Monday afternoon as an upper level trough traverses through the area. Locations including Seward, Valdez, and the Copper River Delta will see gusty northerly winds through the rest of the weekend. A High Wind Warning has been issued for Thompson Pass where northeasterly winds of 50-60 mph are expected with gusts as high as 75 mph. In addition, locations including Broad Pass and Palmer will see gusty northerly winds, with peak winds occurring Sunday morning and diminishing by Monday afternoon. Along with this northerly flow, colder air will arrive, allowing for a return to single digit temperatures for the beginning of the workweek.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

The low that tracked over the area is quickly moving across the Gulf away from Southwest Alaska. Overall cloud cover is diminishing, but some snow shower activity has developed with daytime heating. These will diminish by sunset. Gusty northerly winds impacting the area will gradually diminish through Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. A front moving in from the Bering will be rapidly weakening as it moves into the Kuskokwim Delta coast Monday night. Thus, only some widely scattered snow shower activity with no significant accumulations are expected. A low develops along the front over the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday. The low will try to bring some snow mainly to coastal Bristol Bay late Tuesday into Tuesday night, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to how far north the snow gets into Southwest Alaska.

With very quiet weather expected overall the next few days, the primary weather story will be the temperatures, which will return to single digits for most areas the next several nights. Highs rebound nicely in the late March sun, with 20s expected in most areas for the next several days.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

The primary weather hazard will come tonight into Sunday in the form of heavy freezing spray across almost all of the Bering east of the Pribilofs. A strong low pulling away over the Gulf with a strong high over the northern Bering are causing strong winds to pull a polar air mass southward across the region. The winds will be enhanced as they move through the gaps in the Alaska Peninsula. As such, heavy freezing spray is expected tonight along both sides of the Alaska Peninsula. The threat diminishes on Sunday as the winds weaken and daytime heating warms both water and air temperatures. The area of high pressure shifts eastward into mainland Alaska Monday as a front, currently over the far western Bering, sweeps eastward, reaching Nunivak Island by Monday evening. The front will weaken substantially once it passes the Pribilofs as it shears apart. A low develops along the front on the Pacific side of the eastern Aleutians, and will track along the Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday evening. There is significant uncertainty as to the track and strength of the low by Tuesday evening, but most models agree it will be the next significant chance of precipitation for the Alaska Peninsula during the day Tuesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Confidence has increased since the last forecast package with respect to the track of the low remaining along the east coast of Russia on Monday. Widespread small craft winds are expected in the western and central Bering with gale force winds near the center of the low in the northwestern Bering. The eastern Bering will see a minimal impact from this as this low is expected to sharply track northeastward into the Chukchi Sea. For Tuesday and Wednesday, forecast confidence remains low at this time due to discrepancies between guidance with the placement of synoptic features. Though, as of now no significant low pressure systems are expected across the Bering or Aleutians.

Gulf of Alaska: For Monday and Tuesday there is a high confidence that the weather will be relatively quiet as high pressure extends across the area. The only area of concern is northerly gap winds out of the bays and passes that will produce gale force gusts at times on Monday. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday as the next low approaches from the west. As of now it is marginal that winds will reach small craft criteria.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Friday).

Guidance is consistent in the upper levels on Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds over the Alaska mainland. This leads to above average confidence in the temperature forecast with a warming trend being expected. Confidence is much lower with respect to an upper trough moving across the Bering/Aleutians on Tuesday and approaching the Alaskan mainland on Wednesday as guidance differs significantly in the strength and orientation of this trough. This means that there is a high degree of uncertainty with respect to the surface cold front associated with this trough and thus a high uncertainty in the temperature and precipitation forecasts which are dependent on the strength and movement of this feature. Forecast confidence significantly lowers on Thursday and remains very low for the rest of the forecast period as guidance shows significant differences between solutions and thus the placement, track and intensity of synoptic features remains uncertain at this time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Warning 131. MARINE . Gale 127 155 185. Heavy Freezing Spray 119 126 127 140 150-165 180 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MSO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


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