Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen
|Sunrise 6:57AM||Sunset 5:51PM||Sunday December 8, 2019 8:21 AM HST (18:21 UTC)||Moonrise 2:54PM||Moonset 3:31AM||Illumination 90%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AKHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for -  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK68 PAFC 081643 CCA AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 743 AM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019
ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.
A high amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong upper level ridge parked over the Alaska Panhandle while an upper level low has moved to the northern Bering. A front currently lifting inland over Southcentral this morning continues to drive warm, southerly flow over the southern half of the state with temperatures reaching as warm as 58 degrees in Seldovia late Saturday evening. Accompanying these warmer temperatures, gusty southeasterly winds have picked up during the overnight hours as the front continues to move inland. Meanwhile out west, cold northerly flow on the backside of the low in the northern Bering persists this morning.
Model solutions are in good agreement regarding the current front lifting inland over Southcentral. There is overall better agreement with the next low arriving from the North Pacific late Sunday into early Monday. As this low moves over the AKPEN, there is less certainty on the exact track it takes once it arrives in the Bering, and also how much the low strengthens as it travels northward along the Southwest coast. However, given the consistency models have shown with the continued trend of the low strengthening as it lifts northward, we are still confident that the impacts (strong winds/heavy precip) will remain relatively the same.
AVIATION. PANC . A frontal boundary has pushed in overnight bringing gusty southerly flow to the terminal that will persist through midday. Wind shear will become a concern again this evening as another front approaches the area. Expect northerly flow at the terminal with southeasterly flow aloft.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A brief break in the weather is expected today as the weather system over the area last night moves north of the area. A powerful north Pacific low will move into the Gulf today and then into Southcentral tonight. This will bring strong winds across the Gulf through Monday with Storm warnings over many of the marine areas. This will also bring very strong winds to Turnagain Arm and the higher elevations around Anchorage. This system is also loaded with moisture and is quite warm. Heavy precipitation is expected along and near the Gulf coast. Rain is the expected precipitation type over most lowland areas with temperatures in the 40s on Monday. The exception to this will be the northern Susitna Valley and the Copper River Basin, where there may be a mixture of rain and snow, but chances of precipitation are low.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).
Active weather will continue to be seen across Southwest Alaska over the next few days. Strong winds continue across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast as one low exits to the north this morning, giving a quick break in weather across the remainder of Southwest. The pattern quickly shifts this afternoon as a powerful and fast moving North Pacific low moves into the region. This low will bring snow, which eventually transitions to rain, as it lifts across the greater Bristol Bay area this evening into the morning hours Monday. Strong east to southeast winds will bring gusts to 60+ mph for areas in Bristol Bay and along the Alaska Range later today into the morning hours of Monday as the front lifts northward.
As this feature continues a northward track over the Kuskokwim Delta, there will be the potential for blowing snow ahead of this warm front overnight into Monday morning with sustained winds of 35+ mph. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast as a brief period of heavy snowfall, along with potential blowing snow, could reduce the visibility across the areas. By Tuesday morning, the pattern shifts back to a quieter one with winds decreasing and precipitation beginning to taper off.
SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).
As a gale force low continues moving into the northern Bering through this afternoon, northerly flow moves into the western Bering and Aleutians. Meanwhile, a fast moving North Pacific low brings gale force winds into Bristol Bay and the eastern Bering by this afternoon, with the low center strengthening as it crosses over the Aleutians into the eastern Bering by Monday morning. This low will continue to deepen to an impressive 955-960 mb by Monday afternoon.
Models still have some disagreement of the position and strength of this low, which will continue to be looked at as the low moves into the area. There is good agreement that there will be a small swath of storm force winds south of the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon as the low first approaches our area. However, once the low moves into the eastern Bering, it is less certain on strength of winds over Bristol Bay. The GFS solution has storm force northeasterly winds for Monday morning, while the NAM continues to be the weaker solution with sustained winds 10 to 15 knots weaker during this time.
MARINE (Days 3 through 5).
. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .
An area of low pressure near Nunivak Island early Tuesday morning will bring high sustained gale force winds to the eastern Bering Sea and Bristol Bay region, with perhaps some low-end storm force winds just offshore from the Kuskokwim Delta. This low will then retrograde (move west) and slowly weaken as it reaches Saint Matthew Island by evening, with the winds having subsided to less than 30 knots by then. For the remainder of the region, winds and waves will generally be less than 25 knots with waves generally less than 15 feet. This will continue into Wednesday and Thursday for all of the forecast area.
. Gulf of Alaska .
Sustained storm force winds ahead of a surface front will plague the northern Gulf early Tuesday morning. A favorable dynamic fetch ahead of this feature will allow seas to build into the 25 to 30 foot range. These winds will rapidly drop to the small craft variety by the afternoon, as the best dynamics associated with the front push inland. The wave heights will also drop due to the decrease in wind energy.
This reprieve will be short-lived though, as yet another front, associated with a north Pacific low, moves into the region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Sustained winds will increase to gale force, with the long fetch allowing waves to once again increase into the 20 to 25 foot range.
Heading into Thursday, both the waves and winds will subside as a weakening area of low pressure enters the southwestern Gulf.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).
The forecast remains fraught with uncertainty due to model discrepancy, but some items remain consistent. Synoptically, a progressive pattern will persist over the Bering and Alaska. Starting Tuesday, a vertically stacked low will drift into the northern Bering, steering modified Arctic air over the Aleutians and Bering. The low will gradually weaken and shift towards Siberia, but in the meantime expect scattered showers over much of the Bering/Aleutians through Thursday. Meanwhile, a north Pacific low will drift northward and push a warm occluded front toward the southern Mainland. Models are consistent with bringing decent precipitation to the AKPEN/eastern Aleutians, but how far north and east precipitation reaches is tough to discern, given the lack of consistency with track of the steering low and potential for a triple-point low to develop. Right now it looks likely that the northern Gulf Coast will see precipitation as a front pushes north in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. By Friday, a strong low will approach the western Aleutians and bring a good swath of precipitation and gusty winds. The front will quickly traverse the Chain Friday, possibly turning the Southwest Mainland wet by Saturday.
AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . WSW 155.
MARINE . Storms: 119 120 130 131 132 138 160 352. Gales: 125 129 136 137 139 140 141 150 155 165 180 181 185 351 414.
FIRE WEATHER . NONE.
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . MM/PD
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
Click EDIT to select an airport
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off)  Help
EDIT (on/off)  Help
Weather Map(on/off)  Help Weather Map
GEOS Local Image of Hawaii EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
Ad by Google
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.