Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:05PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 10:37 PM HST (08:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:52PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 130045 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 445 PM AKDT Wed Aug 12 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A very slowly moving upper level trough is still centered over the South Mainland, producing primarily cloudcover with a few stray rain showers from Bristol Bay eastward. This is the same trough with cold air aloft associated with it that brought thunderstorm activity to many areas around Southcentral yesterday, and the convective potential can still be seen as afternoon cumulus is beginning to develop due to daytime heating with its elevated instability. Before this occurred, extensive fog and stratus developed this morning along the Cook Inlet coast and in the Copper River Basin as the low levels decoupled after yesterdays rains. The fog/stratus in the Southwest was much less extensive this morning due to the general lack of widespread convection in the area on Tuesday. The second very slow moving system is the Aleutian Low that has only moved from the Western Aleutians into the Central Bering over the last 48 hours. This low has become quasi-stationary and has weakened below Small Craft strength, so widespread fog and stratus has developed over the majority of the Bering with the lighter winds. Well south of the Aleutian Chain a wave can be seen developing around 44N. This system will continue tracking towards Kodiak Island, where it is now expected to strengthen to gale force.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model agreement has now improved enough with the developing wave currently south of the Aleutians to begin to increase the marine winds for late Thursday-Friday with todays afternoon package. As this low moves further into the Gulf on Saturday, agreement in its positioning begins to break down, so the forecast was not updated today. For the approaching Aleutian low on Friday, guidance is now in consensus with a stronger ridge over the Central Bering. The tight pressure gradient as a result of the approaching Aleutian low allowed the southerly winds also to be increased for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION.

PANC . The possibility of showers will once again be the forecast challenge around PANC this evening. Showers are already beginning to develop from Pt Mackenzie westward. There is then a chance of fog/stratus again tonight around Cook Inlet, which may impact the terminal Thursday morning. Confidence in this is lower than it was for this morning however, so this was left out of the TAF for now.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2. Thursday and Friday) .

The upper trough continues to slowly track across Southcentral producing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Tonight thunderstorms will dissipate with a few lingering showers through the morning hours. Patchy fog is possible tonight due to light winds, clearing skies and wet ground. The fog is expected from the Copper River Valley westward toward the Matanuska valley and southern parts of the Susitna valley. Additionally, the eastern Kenai Peninsula and near Kodiak will see patchy fog. Thursday and Friday will be warmer and drier with decreasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. Dry north to northeast flow will dominate the area due to a high pressure ridge building into western Alaska. A couple of weak easterly waves may enhance showers across the Copper River Basin Thursday and Friday. Winds will generally be light through the period with weak offshore flow and localized outflow winds at night and afternoon seabreezes.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An upper level low will continue drifting off to the southeast this afternoon and evening. As it does so, some showers and even the isolated wet thunderstorm occurred this afternoon along the western Alaska Range and northern Bristol Bay near Iliamna. This activity is expected to continue into the evening hours before dissipating rather quickly as the sun sets.

A pattern change will continue to take shape across Southwest Alaska this evening as an upper level ridge continues to build into the region from Siberia. This will create an offshore flow which is a drying wind for the southwest Mainland. Basically, expect sunshine over the next few days and warming temperatures in the 60s and possibly even low to mid 70s in places especially Thursday and Friday. The only caveat will be possibly some areas of patchy fog again for Thursday morning though this isn't expected to be like the last two mornings. Any fog that does occur is expected to burn off quickly in the mornings with temperatures rising quickly.

The only areas where there may be some CU (cumulus) development will be over the mountains where more rising motion will occur. There is the outside chance one of these cumulus clouds develops enough especially over the western Alaska Range to produce a shower each afternoon. These are not expected to move off the mountains either.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A rather complex pattern is setting up across the Bering Sea and eastern Aleutian Chain this afternoon and evening. An upper level low currently spinning north of Adak will continue to slowly meander eastward. As this low is moving eastward, another area of upper level energy south of this low over the North Pacific will continue to move northeastward towards Kodiak Island. At the surface this will spawn a new surface low that is expected to strengthen slowly as it moves northeast. As a result, small craft advisory level winds are in the forecast for Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. There was also a small area of low end gales brought into the forecast as all guidance was onboard earlier today for this. However, will mention that any slight deviation in the track of this low will determine where the gale winds setup. There is the risk that these remain south of the marine zones in the North Pacific south of the eastern Aleutians with only the small crafts occurring.

Further west, another frontal system will approach the western Aleutian Chain Thursday evening. This will bring increasing winds and unsettled weather in the form of rain for the second half of the week. The best chance for rain will be Friday afternoon/evening. As this front comes up, it will be banging up against a very strong upper level ridge to its north. As a result, a tight pressure gradient will develop, therefore, gale force winds and gusts were put into the forecast with this update beginning Friday afternoon and continuing through Saturday evening. Wave heights were also increased to account for the stronger front expected to move north into the Bering.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

Aleutians/Bering: A North Pacific low and front move across the Aleutians and Bering through Mon. While the track and development of the low are mixed, confidence is good for Southeasterly gale force winds and waves to move with the front over the Aleutians and Bering. As the front enters the Eastern Bering Mon, the winds diminish to small craft over the Bering with local gales near St Matthew Island while the wind pattern wraps around the low through Mon. Westerly small craft winds and waves continue over the Aleutians through Mon.

Gulf of AK: A front moves across the Alaska Peninsula into the Western Gulf through Sun. Confidence is good for Northwesterly small craft winds and waves over the Western Gulf diminishing Sun. A weak low pressure complex develops along the Southern Gulf front through Mon. As the low centers rotate through the Gulf, confidence is good for local east or southeast small craft winds along the North Gulf Coast as the wind pattern wraps the low through Mon.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sun through Wed).

Model agreement has improved significantly with the strength of the Aleutian Low that will dominate the long term forecast as it moves through the Bering early next week. This improvement is largely a result of todays runs of the GFS coming in nearly 20 mb weaker with the peak intensity of this system, so it no longer appears that this will become a major system. The track of this system is more in question, but the general trends are to track this system towards the AKPen instead of much further north into the Bering Strait. As a result of this general consensus, the long term forecast will largely use a consensus blend into the middle of next week. Confidence is also beginning to improve that this system will primarily impact the Bering/Aleutians, SW Mainland, and the Gulf. Southcentral on the other hand should see a glancing blow, allowing for generally benign weather from late this weekend into next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . DK SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/DK


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