Thursday, July18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

Version 3.4
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday July 18, 2019 8:08 AM HST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 6:36AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 36.88, -180     debug

Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak68 pafc 181202
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
402 am akdt Thu jul 18 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A large upper-level low continues to spin over the eastern gulf.

Behind it, an offshore flow dominates across southcentral with
a general uptick in temperatures and light northerly winds for
areas of the copper river basin and susitna valley. These outflow
winds continue to produce breezy west and northwesterly winds
through favored gaps and passes across portions of prince william
sound and the eastern kenai peninsula overnight. Gusty northwest
winds are also occurring across the barren islands south to
kodiak island and parts of the the coastal akpen due to the
pressure gradient between the departing low and a ridge over the
bering aleutians. Locations across the southcentral mainland
warmed into the upper 60s to mid 70s yesterday; however,
seabreezes kept coastal locations a touch cooler, with daytime
highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms developed once again yesterday, mainly
over the higher terrain and across the bristol bay region due in
part to the added instability from northeast to southwest
propagating shortwaves rotating around the parent low. Much of
this activity has waned in the overnight hours with only a few
showers lingering around king salmon, iliamna, and over the
talkeetna mountains. Farther west, an onshore flow is keeping
a blanket of low stratus draped over the y-k delta.

For the bering sea and aleutians, things remain rather quiet as
high pressure remains the dominate weather feature. Satellite
imagery shows widespread low clouds and patchy fog across nearly
the entire region with a weak low spinning well south of adak.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement with evolution of large scale
features. The main forecast challenge continues to be the scale
of convective initiation and propagation as storm motion becomes
weaker and changes slightly over the course of subsequent

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Light
southerly surface winds this morning will turn to the west-
northwest for the afternoon and evening hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible again today across the higher terrain
of the chugach mountains. Storm motion, however, looks to be much
much weaker today than previous days and will begin to turn
southerly by evening. Therefore, any convection that does develop
should remain over the mountains.

A southeasterly turnagain arm wind is expected to increase late
tonight through tomorrow morning. At this time, it does not appear
these winds will bend over the airport complex.

Fire weather
Weak offshore flow at lower levels will persist today. This will
result in generally warm and somewhat dry conditions. The
exception will be some diurnal wet thunderstorms over inland
areas. Storms will mainly stay in the higher terrain as the
steering flow is fairly weak. Conditions will be a little cooler
and humidities a little higher on Friday as weak onshore flow
develops. A few wet thunderstorms are still possible in the
afternoon for inland areas as the atmosphere remains somewhat

The southwest mainland will transition to a cooler, more humid
regime as onshore flow prevails. The main fire weather concern
today is potential for thunderstorms over the alaska range, as
the marine push won't propagate quite that far west. So, with
moderate instability expected won't be surprised to see some
single-cell thunderstorms pop up later today. With minimal
steering flow, anything that forms should stay anchored to

As for smoke, onshore flow should improve conditions in the
kuskokwim valley.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level pattern through Friday night is very weak. This
is because southcentral is very near a "col" in between high
pressure over the bering sea and the southwest yukon territory,
and a low pressure system over the gulf and a trough over northern

Weak offshore flow at the lower levels will continue today. This
will allow temperatures at inland surface locations to warm into
the 70s to low 80s, with 70s possible even at coastal locations.

Some diurnal thunderstorms are possible today as the atmosphere
remains unstable. Most of the storms will be confined to the
mountains as the steering flow is very weak. On Friday the low
level flow becomes weakly onshore. Also, some moisture will begin
to push into the area from the east and increase the cloud cover.

These two factors will combine to lower high temperatures compared
to today. The atmosphere will become a little more stable, but
some thunderstorms are still possible over inland locations.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A ridge will continue building over the bering sea, and onshore
flow will moderate temperatures over the southwest mainland over
the next few days. Expect patchy fog and increased cloud cover
with the marine push... The challenge is gauging how far inland
fog will propagate. Fog low stratus is likely along the kuskokwim
delta and bristol bay coasts, but confidence drops farther inland.

In any case, afternoon highs will be cooler than what we've been
observing the last few days, and humidity will be higher.

The thunderstorm threat looks minimal in the short term, with the
only area of concern over the alaska range today. This area will
be east of the marine influence and under weak north flow, so may
see some garden-variety thunderstorms this evening. Anything that
forms should stay anchored to terrain.

The smoke forecast continues to be a challenge in the middle and
lower kuskokwim valley... Plenty of fires continue to burn in and
around these areas, but with the onshore push conditions should
generally improve.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
High pressure over the bering sea will continue mostly benign
conditions over the next few days. Expect widespread fog and low
stratus, and probably some drizzle squeezing out as well. Winds
continue to be the focus for the forecast... Expect small craft
advisory level winds south of the aleutians and akpen as moderate
north winds channel through the gaps.

Marine (days 3 through 5; Friday evening through Sunday)
Generally light westerlies are expected across the bering this
weekend. Winds will likewise be light and variable over the
western aleutians near high pressure. Gusty northwesterlies are
likely west of unalaska, particularly in bays and passes, though
sustained gales are not expected. Waves should remain at or below
7 feet.

Light and variable winds and low seas are expected across the

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7; Saturday through Tuesday)
There is a noticeable difference in the long-range models from
yesterday. The strong ridge as indicated over southcentral the
past several runs now looks to be more suppressed, positively
tilted and slightly further west. This will impact the forecast in
that if the current solution verifies it will not be as warm.

Also, the position of the upper ridge will determine storm motion
with regards to any convection that develops along the mountains.

The general consensus at this time is not to buy in to the
present solution too quickly. Model agreement continues to degrade
thereafter with the GFS showing a much stronger upper low in the
gulf compared with the european model. Thus, overall confidence in
the long term forecast remains low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Tm
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mm
marine long term... Ap

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
Click EDIT to select an airport
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.