Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:15PM Monday January 20, 2020 1:47 AM HST (11:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:37AMMoonset 1:51PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 200224 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 524 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper level trough extends from eastern Russia to across eastern Bristol Bay to south of the Alaska Peninsula. This feature is helping to support a weak baroclinic zone which extends north from the eastern Alaska Peninsula to over interior Bristol Bay. Observations and radar imagery shows light snow falling along this band. A moderately strong surface low over the east-central Gulf of Alaska is moving northwest. Its leading edge of its associated front band is spreading light snow west across the North Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound. Generally fair skies and cold temperatures were observed across the remainder of the mainland. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions with open and closed cell cumulus snow showers were observed with cold advection across the Bering Sea.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Synoptically the models are all in fairly good agreement in the short term. The biggest challenge will be in the details of snowfall across Southcentral tonight and Monday. We will be leaning closer to the NAM/Canadian Regional.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this evening. Lower ceilings and snow will work it's way in from the east overnight. There is some uncertainty in timing, but expect a period of IFR conditions in snow sometime Monday morning, most likely between 12Z and 18Z. Lighter snow and MVFR conditions will then likely hold through Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A surface low over the central Gulf will move northwest tonight to just southwest of Prince William Sound. Precipitation will continue to spread to the west, making its way towards the Chugach Mountains. Snow could be heavy at times on the eastern Kenai through Monday morning, especially over the higher terrain of eastern Turnagain Arm (Girdwood to Turnagain Pass).

For areas around Cook Inlet, there will be chances of snow through Monday night as southerly flow aloft brings moisture into the region. This, combined with waves of energy rotating around a lifting upper level trough, and cold enough temperatures remaining at the surface, look to provide the conditions necessary for snowfall across much of Southcentral. For areas around Cook Inlet and the Mat-Su Valleys, a general 2 to 4 inches is possible. Despite these cold surface temperatures, the air mass associated with this system is considerably warmer than what has been present across the region for the last few days, so temperatures look to increase into the upper teens to lower 20s for the Anchorage Bowl by late Monday. There is the potential for a rain/snow mix across Prince William Sound and along the immediate coast of the Kenai Peninsula as temperatures warm even more.

Snow looks to remain across the Matanuska-Susitna Valleys into Tuesday morning, albeit much lighter than the accumulations expected earlier in the day. By Tuesday night, we should dry out with scattered snow showers remaining in the Copper River Basin and a snow/rain mix across the eastern Prince William Sound.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Wednesday). An arctic air mass will remain in place, however, a weak front and trough from the Bering will move ashore tonight over the Kuskokwim Delta. There will be increasing clouds in this area as well as a chance for snow. Given the weak nature of the system, accumulation is not expected. The Kuskokwim Valley will likely remain frigid with low temperatures approaching -30F again despite the mid-level overcast currently overhead. Behind this front, into the middle of the week, dry conditions will return and a colder airmass will settle back into place along with offshore flow.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Wednesday). Shishaldin Volcano continues to erupt. So far ash seems to be limited with the plume, which is carrying to the southeast over marine areas. Ashfall amounts beyond a trace are not expected at this time. A weak trough over the eastern Bering Sea will keep small chances for snow showers as it moves onshore over the next couple days. Behind the trough a colder air mass will spread numerous snow showers over the western and central Bering Sea. The pattern shifts by mid-week with a gale-force front affecting the western Chain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday).

Gulf of Alaska:

After quiet weather across the Gulf on Wednesday, a low moving into the eastern Gulf will bring the threat of north to northwesterly gales through the Barren Islands and south of Kodiak Island. There is some disagreement in the track of the low, but a westerly track and stronger low could result in storm force winds in those same areas, primarily Thursday night into Friday morning. Gales will continue through the day Friday.

Bering Sea and Aleutians:

A strong low meandering south of the western Aleutians is expected to produce easterly gale force winds, with intermittent storm force winds possible, for all three days across all of the western and central Aleutians and adjacent waters. Where the strongest winds set up will be determined by the exact track of the low and associated fronts. Strengthening high pressure over the northern Bering will also produce gale force outflow winds through the eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and near Cape Newenham. The strongest winds in these areas are expected Friday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through Sunday).

A stagnant, slow-to-change weather pattern is expected to set up across Alaska and the Bering Sea throughout the entire long-term forecast period. A stalled out low is expected to set up south of the western Aleutians, it's northern periphery will cause strong winds and rain across the central and western Aleutians from Wednesday through Sunday. Any fronts associated with the low may briefly increase both the winds and the precipitation intensity. Moving east from there, an area of high pressure over the Pribilofs Wednesday morning will move over the west coast of Alaska and intensify with time through the weekend. This will have several effects: first, it will allow an Arctic air mass to reestablish itself across much of mainland Alaska from Friday through the weekend, resulting in another round of well-below normal-temperatures across all of Southern mainland Alaska. Second, it will cause gusty winds to develop, especially through the mountain gaps such as Thompson Pass, the Seward area, the Barren Islands, and south of Kodiak Island. The combination of falling temperatures and gusty winds will almost certainly cause a renewed round of wind chill concerns, both in Southwest and Southcentral. The cold and gusty outflow winds currently appear to be strong enough around the Anchorage area that freezing fog concerns appear unlikely.

The last and certainly most uncertain element to the long term forecast will be the tracks of a series of lows that are expected to move through the Gulf through the long-term period. All of the models agree that lows will move through the Gulf, so it's highly likely that unsettled weather will be the norm across coastal areas. The lows will each have the potential to produce snow for coastal communities, spread some cloud cover inland at times, which will make the temperature forecast more difficult, and increase the winds through the gaps even further, adding both to the wind chill concerns and possibly localized blizzards where the strong winds and heavier snow could combine. Thus, despite an otherwise stagnant weather pattern, the forecast will remain challenging and active, especially for Southcentral.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK/TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . ML MARINE/LONG TERM . JW


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.