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FXUS66 KMTR 291205 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 405 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1215 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Showers will persist through the first half of today. An unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1215 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

A closed upper low was evident via moisture channel imagery early this morning just off the Mendocino Coast with an occluded front located west of the Bay Area in association with the attendant surface low. A leading band of showers was progressing inland across the Bay Area as of this writing with additional scattered showers located offshore. The upper low is forecast to devolve to an open- wave trough while sinking southeast towards the Central Coast with the associated surface front remaining just offshore. Scattered showers will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast from late morning into early afternoon as forcing for ascent gradually wanes. Given cold temperatures aloft and steepening lapse rates still can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two primarily over the Pacific waters as modest instability builds. That said scattered light showers will be the primary weather most folks should experience today. Total rain amounts still look to average 0.5" or so within the coastal ranges with most lower elevations seeing 0.25" or less. Typically rain shadowed/drier locations like the Santa Clara and Salinas Valleys are likely to see 0.15" or less through this evening. Temperatures this afternoon should be seasonal with highs mostly in the lower 60s. Partial clearing this evening should allow for overnight lows to dip into the 40s for most areas, with a few of the typically colder inland spots dropping into the upper 30s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

The region will remain in an unsettled northwest flow pattern aloft as a series of weak perturbations traverse the mean flow. In general the best moisture and forcing for ascent will remain across far NorCal and the Pacific Northwest, however we'll remain just close enough to occasionally be brushed with some light showers. Rain amounts don't appear overly impressive (generally 0.10" or less)
although it's possible the Sonoma Coastal Ranges could receive up to 0.25" through early next week. A period of breezy onshore winds is expected late Thursday into Friday as upper troughing swings through the Great Basin and surface high pressure strengthens over the northeast Pacific. Expect a gradual warming trend in temperatures through early next week as the greatest rain chances shift north of all but far northern portions of the Bay Area.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 404 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Rain showers continue to push through the region at this hour with many terminals reporting reduced visibilities as a result of rain. Expect rain showers to continue to impact terminals through at least the the mid to late morning today. Although visibilities are slightly reduced at terminals, conditions largely remain VFR, with the exception of KSFO and KSTS who have oscillated between IFR and MVFR. Beyond the late morning, expect widespread VFR across the region and to persist through the end of the TAF period. Winds largely remain 10 knots and below once again today, though shift to become more onshore out of the NW into the afternoon. Into the evening hours of Wednesday, light and variable winds prevail, with KSTS beginning to just barely reach LLWS criteria near 12Z Thursday.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR as a result of reduced visibilities from rain. Conditions expected to improve to VFR come the late morning hours as rain showers move out of the region. VFR then prevails the remainder of the TAF period. Winds light to moderate today and through the early evening and offshore. Onshore winds return into the mid evening hours Wednesday, strengthening to become breezy overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period, with mid level clouds present. Rain impacts at terminals fade into the late morning. Current offshore SE winds turn to become more onshore into the afternoon and light for KMRY. KSNS remains breezy to gusty out of the SE through the early afternoon thereafter weakening to become light and variable.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Scattered rain showers are currently impacting the coastal waters, and are expected to last through the late morning. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through the morning hours which could bring locally gusty conditions and higher seas. Current fresh SE/E winds gradually diminish and shift to become northerly late Wednesday into Thursday before strong breezes develop Thursday morning, with gales possible over the far southern coastal waters. A larger moderate period northwest swell arrives in the late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Thursday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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