Sunday, September20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday September 20, 2020 7:26 AM EDT (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 8:27PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 703 Am Edt Sun Sep 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 703 Am Edt Sun Sep 20 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Strong high pressure will build north of the region today through Monday. This will lead to a period of strong north to northeast wind through Monday. The high will become centered from the ohio valley to the southeast states Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 201039 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 639 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure will build into the region from the north through the remainder of the weekend. This high will stay over the region through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 355 AM EDT Sunday .

1032mb high pressure centered over NY and southern Canada continues to ridge southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. Pressure gradient remains quite steep between this high and Hurricane Teddy well off the Southeast coast. Mid and upper level moisture continues to stream NE from the central Gulf resulting in SCT to BKN ceilings across the region. Lower clouds are hanging on across the southeastern third of the area due to relatively cool/dry air interacting with warm near shore waters. Skies will clear across the NW today but clouds will be slow to decrease across the far SE. Remaining breezy (inland) to windy (along the coast), owing to still compressed pressure gradient between the high and Teddy well offshore. Kept silent PoPs across the SE where additional sprinkles are possible today but are unlikely to result in more than trace accumulations. Very comfortable again today with high temps ranging from the mid 60s inland to around 70 degrees in NE NC this afternoon. Mostly clear tonight near and west of I-95 with partly cloudy skies hanging on closer to the coast. Some degree of mixing overnight should keep temperatures from falling too far, lows in the 40s W and low to mid 50s E. A few upper 30s are possible in typically cooler, more sheltered locations well inland.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 355 AM EDT Sunday .

Similar conditions are expected on Monday with mostly clear skies W and partly cloudy conditions hanging on closer to the coast. Sprinkles will again be possible across the far SE on Monday. High temps warm a degree or two with most areas seeing mid to upper 60s, low 70s for far NE NC. Breezy inland to windy near the coast with high pressure over New England and Teddy offshore. High pressure finally builds southward Monday night resulting in decreasing winds. Less mixing and cloud cover will allow for better radiational cooling Monday night. Lows upper 30s NW, 40s for most of the area, and low to mid 50s near the immediate coast.

Continued dry and temperatures warm a few degrees on Tuesday with highs in the low 70s. Mostly clear skies and low humidity will continue the string of exceptionally pleasant weather for the region. Not as cool Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Saturday .

Quiet and seasonable weather for the long term forecast period. Upper ridging will be in place east of the Rockies to begin the forecast period on Tuesday. Heights slowly start to build by Tuesday/Wednesday in response to TC Teddy passing by the region and pushing north into the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, a deep upper low near the Gulf of Alaska will come ashore across the Pacific NW later Wed/Thu, with downstream moderating temperatures as high pressure builds over the east coast.

As such, expect the below normal temps to start the week will increase to near or perhaps slightly above normal by the end of the week. Generally dry wx expected, with mild days and cool nights. Have continued to follow NBM temperatures through the period. Highs nudge up to the mid to upper 70s Wed, with upper 70s to low 80s Thu/Fri. Early morning lows Wednesday morning moderate back into the upper 40s to mid 50s inland, 55 to 60 at the coast. Lows mid 50s to mid 60s for the remainder of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 640 AM EDT Sunday .

VFR conditions prevail across area terminals, with light N winds at RIC/SBY/PHF, and 10-15 kt N-NNE winds near the coast (w/ higher gusts). VFR conditions are expected to continue today with skies clearing across the north and west while SCT- BKN SC (3500-5000 ft) are possible near the coast. Strong NNE winds will continue through the TAF period (especially during the day/evening . when gusts to 25-30 kt are likely at ORF/ECG). With continued NNE flow, expect to see more in the way of BKN SC near the coast today. Another brief period of MVFR SC/sprinkles is possible along the VA/NC coast (ORF/ECG) today, but again expect predominate conditions to be VFR. At RIC/SBY, expect just SCT aftn VFR CU/SC.

OUTLOOK . Strong high pressure will provide VFR conditions tonight into Wed. The only exception to this may be some brief periods of MVFR SC near the coast from Sun night-Mon.

MARINE. As of 355 AM EDT Sunday .

The current surface analysis shows ~1035mb high pressure centered across srn QB and extending swd across upstate NY in into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is lingering off the Southeast coast. This front combined with the high to the N is resulting in a modestly strong pressure gradient in vicinity of the VA and NC coasts. The wind is generally NE 15-25kt early this morning, with seas ranging from 6-8ft N to 8-10ft S, and 3-4ft waves in the Bay and 4-6ft at the mouth of the Bay. The pressure gradient tightens later today into tonight and early Monday as the high builds ewd through New England and Hurricane Teddy tracks nwd well off the east coast. This will allow the wind to increase, but still generally expected high-end SCA conditions for much of the area, with the potential for low-end gale conditions off the Currituck Outer Banks. Forecast 950mb wind speeds still reach a max of 30-33kt S of Cape Henry. Given this, SCAs remain in effect for most of the area (beginning at 7 am for the Rappahannock, York, and upper James), with the aforementioned gale warning later today through midday Monday off the nrn Outer Banks. Seas build to 8-11ft N and 10- 13ft S, with waves generally 3-5ft in the Bay and 5-7ft at the mouth of the Bay. SCAs for most of the Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound run through Monday evening, Monday aftn for the Rappahannock, York, and upper James, and Tuesday aftn for the ocean N of the VA/NC border and mouth of the Bay.

Hurricane Teddy tracking nwd well off the coast will keep seas elevated into middle portion of the week. Otherwise, the wind will diminish as high pressure settles into the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. As of 745 PM EDT Saturday .

A couple of Flood Warnings remain in effect for area rivers (Sebrell and Franklin), and have continued warnings for the Blackwater near Dendron and Zuni. In addition, a Flood Warning for the Chickahominy River near Providence Forge is in effect. Dendron/Zuni/Providence Forge Flood Warnings appear as if the may need to remain in place through much, if not all of the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 555 AM EDT Sunday .

Despite the continued onshore/NE flow, there has been no significant flood tide vs. ebb tide dominance at the mouth of the Bay over the past several cycles and there is no indication that this changes during the next 24-36 hrs. Thus, water levels across the middle and upper Bay are only showing departures of 0.5 to 1.0 ft above astronomical tides and the chance for this increasing significantly through today and even Monday is low. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Watch has been cancelled and a the Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended through the Monday aftn high tide.

Across the lower Bay, lower James River, York River, and the coastlines of Northampton County, VA departures are higher, averaging ~1.5 ft above normal. These departures will result in minor flooding at higher astronomical high tide this morning through early aftn, and borderline minor flooding during the lower astronomical high tide later this evening. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Warning has been replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory today into tonight. The higher astronomical high tide from mid-Monday morning into the early aftn still has a potential to reach moderate flooding in some locations, so a Coastal Flood Warning is still in effect for Monday.

Coastal Flood Warnings continue for ocean-side VA Beach through Outer Banks Currituck today through Monday. Moderate flooding is expected during the higher astronomical high tides this morning and Monday morning, with tidal departures ~2.0ft above normal. Minor flooding is likely during the lower astronomical high tide this evening.

Swells enhanced by Hurricane Teddy (well offshore), with periods of ~17 seconds, and very large waves of 10-12 feet+ will make for very dangerous conditions at the Atlantic Beaches (especially Sunday and Monday). In addition, there is dune/beach erosion potential, especially for more vulnerable locations, later this weekend into early next week. Beach Hazards Statements/High Rip Current Risk will be needed through this weekend into next week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for Virginia Beach/Eastern Currituck as seas are ~8ft and are expected to 8-10ft off VA Beach, and potentially 10-12ft for Outer Banks Currituck. High Surf Advisories have been added to the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore beginning this evening.

CLIMATE. Richmond matched a daily record low maximum temperature of 65F today (9/19), which also occurred in 1929.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-025. NC . Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA . Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for VAZ089- 090. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for VAZ089-090. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for VAZ084- 093-095>097-100-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ084-093- 095>097-100-523>525. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for VAZ075-077- 078-085-086. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>633-638.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . RHR SHORT TERM . RHR LONG TERM . MAM/MRD AVIATION . ERI/RHR MARINE . AJZ HYDROLOGY . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi57 min NE 6 G 11 62°F 1026.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi57 min 73°F1026.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi57 min NNE 21 G 25 64°F 1026.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi57 min NNE 15 G 19 64°F 1026 hPa
44087 15 mi61 min 72°F4 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi57 min NNE 8 G 12 63°F 72°F1026 hPa
44072 18 mi37 min E 19 G 23 64°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi57 min N 9.9 G 13 58°F 74°F1026.9 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi57 min NE 19 G 22 62°F 1025.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi57 min NE 20 G 23 63°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi57 min N 20 G 25 62°F 1026.3 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi57 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 69°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi57 min NNE 4.1 55°F 1029 hPa48°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi61 min 73°F7 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi39 min NNE 18 G 19 64°F 73°F1030 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi57 min NNE 22 G 24 1027.7 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi28 minNNE 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F48°F58%1027 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi31 minNE 1110.00 miFair60°F49°F67%1027.7 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi33 minNNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F48°F75%1027.4 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi36 minNNE 14 G 2410.00 miA Few Clouds63°F50°F63%1026.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi31 minN 610.00 miFair56°F49°F79%1027.4 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi32 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F48°F69%1026.4 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi32 minNNW 410.00 miFair55°F51°F90%1027.1 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi31 minNNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F51°F65%1026.2 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair52°F48°F88%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNGU

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSE3CalmCalmE6E5E7E8E9E7NE9E8E10NE7E7E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:02 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:30 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.12.51.70.80.1-0.100.61.52.43.23.63.63.22.51.60.70.200.30.91.72.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:09 AM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:55 AM EDT     1.38 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:23 PM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.4-0.2-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.5-1-0.20.61.21.41.20.80.2-0.4-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.4-0.800.71

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.