Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:31PM Friday April 3, 2020 7:29 PM EDT (23:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 3:08AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 701 Pm Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am edt Saturday...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 701 Pm Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure off the new england coast will drop south and become centered off the mid atlantic coast through this evening and tonight. The low will then move farther out to sea by Saturday morning as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 032327 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 727 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure off the New England coast moves southeast away from the area overnight. The low will push farther east on Saturday as high pressure builds over the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 715 PM EDT Friday .

Only minor tweaks to the near term pops and sky cover. KDOX is showing light showers over the MD eastern shore, however much of the precip is not reaching the surface with the low levels still fairly dry. Can't rule out a stray sprinkle or quick light rain shower but won't be anything significant. With temps dropping over the past couple hours the RH values are increasing, thus the increased fire danger is quickly coming to an end for inland portions of VA and NE NC.

Previous Discussion .

As of 400 PM EDT Friday .

Strong low pressure south of Cape Cod is retrograding southwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon with weak high pressure centered over the Midwest. The resulting pressure gradient is leading to continued NW winds across the region today, generally 10-20mph with gusts running 20-30mph. Very dry air continues to funnel southeast on the western side of the Atlantic low, resulting in dry and breezy conditions for much of the area this afternoon. Afternoon RH values are generally 20-25% but a decent portion of the VA Piedmont is showing RHs of 15-20%. A Special Weather Statement for increased fire danger remains in effect for roughly the western 2/3rds of the region through 7pm this evening. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 60s and low 70s west to the upper 50s and low 60s near the coast.

Clouds were slow to increase across the northeastern portion of the area this afternoon due to the aforementioned dry air feed but they are starting to fill in now. Do expect clouds to slowly increase across the NE through the rest of the afternoon, spreading slowly SW into this evening as the low offshore makes its closest approach before pulling away to the SE. Lows tonight fall into the low to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Friday .

Low pressure finally moves away from the region on Saturday but one more perturbation in the northerly flow aloft will drop southward during the afternoon. Not expecting any precip from this feature but will show partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies across the eastern half of the region. Accordingly, the warmest temperatures will occur across the western half of the area on Saturday where mid to upper 60s are forecast. Expect low to mid 60s for the I-95 corridor with upper 50s and low 60s for the coastal regions. Weak high pressure builds overhead Saturday night. Lows fall into the low and mid 40s under partly cloudy skies.

Flow becomes weakly southerly on Sunday as high pressure translates slowly offshore. Continued dry with highs inching upward into the upper 60s and low 70s inland, low to mid 60s near the bay/coast. Will show PoPs 15-20% on Sunday night as subtle shortwave energy aloft interacts with increasing surface moisture levels resulting in the potential for a stray shower or two. Overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. Low chance for a few showers continues on Monday as temps and moisture levels increase but with the lack of any appreciable forcing will keep PoPs aob 30%. Warming trend continues on Monday with highs ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the low and mid 70s for inland locations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Friday .

A series of weak, low amplitude waves will move through the region early next week, providing slight chances of showers Monday night through Wednesday. A weak warm front lifts N Monday night into Tuesday before stalling to the N and lingering through Wednesday. A backdoor cold front moves through the region Wednesday night/Thursday but should be mostly dry. A cold front moves through Thursday night/Friday morning from the W and provides another isolated chance of showers. Greatest PoPs will be Tuesday morning (30-45% chance)and Wednesday morning (25-40% chance).

Highs are expected to be in the mid-70s on Mon and Thurs, upper 70s to near 80F on Tues and Wed, and low-mid 60s on Fri. Lows expected to range from the low 50s N to the upper 50s S on Mon, Tues, and Wed nights. Lows are expected to then cool to the low 40s N to the upper 40s S Thurs and Fri nights behind the stronger cold front.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 715 PM EDT Friday .

VFR to start the TAF period. SBY is still gusting to 20-25 kts early this evening, however wind speeds are expected to subside over the next couple hours. Elsewhere N/NW winds 08-15 kts will become N/NE overnight and through the remainder of the TAF period. A slight chance of a light rain shower at SBY early this evening, however chances too low to mention in the TAF and any light precip will not impact flight categories. Clouds will be on the increase Saturday. Ceilings at RIC are likely to remain VFR however remaining TAF sites may drop to MVFR at times.

Outlook . VFR conditions expected for much of Sunday although a weak front will approach from the west late in the day. Unsettled weather sets up for early next week with chances of rain Monday through Wednesday, with occasional degraded flight conditions possible.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EDT Friday .

SCAs remain in effect for all coastal waters as a strong low pressure continues to track southwest east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The low pressure will be centered east of our coast this evening and tonight before beginning to turn east and track out to sea. Winds today have been NNW 20-25 kt with several gusts up to 35 kt. Seas have been slow to rise, 4-6 ft this afternoon, but waves in the bay and tidal rivers have responded quickly to the strong winds today. Waves in the bay are 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft in the rivers. Winds will become north and still appears will drop off for a few hours towards sunset, before increasing again with a secondary surge of colder air during the 02-06Z timeframe. With this in mind, have extended the SCAs for the rivers to cover this additional surge. N ~20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt.

The low pressure will track southeast as the high pressure moves into northern Mid-Atlantic early Saturday morning. High pressure will build south into our area by Saturday aftn allowing for winds to drop below SCA criteria, NE 5-10 kt across the bay and NE 10-15 kt across the ocean coastal waters. However, SCAs have been extended through the 4th period for lingering seas on the coastal waters (and for 4 ft waves into the mouth of the Bay). Large swell will reach the east coast Saturday and High Surf advisories may be needed, especially from Va Beach to NC Outer banks. Seas Saturday are expected to be 7-9 ft N and 8-10 ft S.

High pressure will move off the coast Sunday. Winds will become SE 10-15 kt Sunday night. Seas may stay above SCA criteria (5 ft) through at least Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 400 AM EDT Friday .

Increasing swell on Saturday, (perhaps 7-9 ft) coupled w/ winds slowly diminishing and shifting more to the NE will likely allow water to again pile up in the bay, resulting in an increase in tidal anomalies. Minor tidal flooding is expected along the Atlantic Ocean coast early Saturday morning. In addition, minor tidal flooding is expected for areas along the southern Chesapeake Bay and lower James River Saturday morning. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for all of the MD/VA Atlantic Coast, northern Outer Banks, and much of Hampton Roads.

With lighter winds than the event from a few days ago, would think that the best potential for moderate flooding will be into the mid/upper Bay by Sunday as a few successive flood tides are likely to dominate at the the mouth of the Ches Bay allowing water that initially piles up in the lower Bay to be forced to spread N (as ebb tides will be minimal). Confidence is still too low for a Coastal Flood Watch but this will need to be monitored across portions of the mid/upper Bay.

High Surf Advisories may be needed Sat, most likely from Va Beach to NC Outer Banks, but can't rule it out farther N as well.

CLIMATE. March 2020 temperature ranks:

4th warmest at RIC (54.8F), #1 1945 (58.5F) 4th warmest at ORF (57.0F), #1 1945 (59.5F) 8th warmest at SBY (50.7F), #1 1945 (56.2F) 4th warmest at ECG (58.0F), #1 1945 (61.5F)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102. VA . Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ093-095>097-524-525. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ099-100. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631- 638.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/ERI/RHR NEAR TERM . CMF/RHR SHORT TERM . RHR LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . CMF/ERI MARINE . CP/LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi60 min NE 11 G 17 61°F 1008.5 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi60 min 55°F1008.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi96 min NNE 22 G 25 1007.4 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi60 min NE 19 G 24 58°F 1007.7 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi60 min NE 7 G 12 62°F 57°F1008 hPa
44064 18 mi40 min NNE 18 G 21 1007.9 hPa
44072 18 mi50 min E 14 G 16 55°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi60 min NE 7 G 15 61°F 55°F1007.9 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi66 min NNE 17 G 20 56°F 1006.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi60 min NE 17 G 19 57°F 1008.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi60 min N 13 G 15 57°F 1008.2 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi60 min NNE 13 G 18 53°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi60 min NNW 4.1 64°F 1009 hPa39°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi30 min 49°F3 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi84 min N 14 G 16 55°F1012 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi60 min N 13 G 14 1009.3 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi91 minNNE 14 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds60°F41°F50%1008.3 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi94 minNNE 17 G 2410.00 miFair60°F42°F51%1008.4 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi36 minENE 1210.00 miFair61°F39°F44%1008.5 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi39 minN 910.00 miFair58°F43°F58%1008.4 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi94 minNNW 10 G 1810.00 miFair67°F32°F27%1007.1 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi35 minNNE 910.00 miFair61°F33°F35%1008.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi35 minNNW 510.00 miFair68°F24°F19%1008.5 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi34 minNNE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F37°F48%1008.4 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi35 minN 810.00 miFair68°F33°F28%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNGU

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----W7W10W10NW13NW13NW13NW14
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1 day agoNW9NW6W6W7W6W5W6W13
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2 days ago--NE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:53 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:26 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:24 PM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.11.72.32.62.72.62.21.71.10.60.40.40.71.21.72.22.42.42.11.610.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:30 AM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:22 PM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:42 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.40.10.50.70.70.60.30-0.4-0.8-1-1.1-0.9-0.5-00.30.50.50.30-0.4-0.8-1.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.