Saturday, January16, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Creek, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:18PM Saturday January 16, 2021 3:39 AM EST (08:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:55AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 124 Am Est Sat Jan 16 2021
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 124 Am Est Sat Jan 16 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the area early this morning. High pressure builds to the south of the region Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Creek, VA
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location: 36.98, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 160628 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 128 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move offshore this morning. An upper level trough tracks across the area this afternoon into this evening. High pressure builds to the south of the region Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 930 PM EST Friday .

A cold front is in the process of crossing the FA late this evening and is expected to push offshore early Saturday morning between 06z-09z. Showers associated with the front will gradually make their way eastward overnight and eventually offshore prior to 12z Sat. Rain totals on the order of 0.25-0.75" will occur. Mostly cloudy overnight except some breaks in the clouds over the Piedmont. Guidance does show patchy fog formation across the Piedmont as well. Lows will drop to around 30-32 across the Piedmont prior to daybreak with mid 30s to around 40 closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 930 PM EST Friday .

Will carry slight chc PoPs 12-15z for the lower MD Eastern shore Sat morning; otherwise, an upper-level trough is still expected track across the region during Saturday. The sky will likely start as partly sunny Saturday morning, with increasing clouds for the afternoon, as the cold pool aloft moves in from the west. The airmass is dry in the low levels, but have a chance for showers from late morning into early evening. There will likely be some graupel or snow flakes mixed in with rain in areas that see pcpn. Pop 20-35%. Saturday will be cooler with highs in the mid-upr 40s, close to normal for this time of year.

Skies will become clear overnight Saturday night. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. A drier west, downsloping, flow will return to the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky. High temps will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Another trough, although weaker, will track across the eastern half of the country Sunday and Monday. This system appears to be much drier than the one coming through today and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain seasonal into early next week with highs in the 40s and lows near 30.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 300 PM EST Friday .

High pressure will build into the area from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Conditions will be dry with seasonal temperatures. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and low in the low 30s.

A shortwave trough is expected to track across the Great Lakes and Northeast late next week. This will bring a front near/into the area. GFS is signaling that a low pressure will form along the front across the Deep South and track towards the east coast. While the ECMWF keeps the rain south of the area. Depending on what side of the front we end up on will determine the temperatures for the end of the weak. Although, no real cold weather is expected through the extended with no threat of winter weather.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 125 AM EST Saturday .

MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible at all the TAF sites until at least 12-14Z this morning, as the pcpn occurs and moves offshore, along with the cold front.

SC will re-develop late this morning into this evening, as an upper level trough swings across the region. Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the most part. However, there will be widely scattered light rain/snow showers (graupel possible).

OUTLOOK . Low pressure lingers across northern New England/eastern Canada tonight through Sun, while high pressure remains to our south. Mainly VFR conditions are expected with a breezy SW wind. A weaker upper level trough will swing across the area on Mon.

MARINE. As of 320 PM EST Friday .

Afternoon satellite imagery shows sprawling, vertically-stacked low pressure centered over the Midwest. A warm front is lifting northward through the region this afternoon with a cold/occluded front extending southward along the spine of the Appalachians. Winds across the local waters are generally from the S or SSE 10-15 kt. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Weak low pressure is forecast to deepen along the occluded/warm/cold frontal junction tonight and move NE across the area after midnight. Winds turn westerly behind the front but with little in the way of cold advection am not expecting winds to rise above SCA thresholds through the morning hours Saturday. Secondary area of cold advection will set up late Saturday afternoon into the overnight period with winds increasing to ~20 kt in the Bay and lower James River as well as the Currituck Sound. The upper rivers will likely stay just below SCA thresholds Saturday night. Waves in the Bay increase to 2-4 ft overnight before subsiding to 2-3 ft on Sunday. Offshore, winds increase to 20-25 kt Saturday afternoon into the overnight. Seas will slowly build Saturday morning with some potential for 5 ft seas across the northern coastal waters by early afternoon. Seas increase to 4-6 ft Saturday night and will take some time to fall back below 5 ft on Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Another upper level system and its associated weak cold front cross the area late Monday night into Tuesday, with another brief period of SCA winds possible during this time frame over the Bay/Sound.

EQUIPMENT. As of 110 AM EST Saturday .

NWS Wakefield (KAKQ) radar has suffered a transmitter malfunction and is offline. The radar is expected to remain offline until Tuesday afternoon (01/19/2021). The Morehead City radar (KMHX) is also offline due to a scheduled generator upgrade. Users are encouraged to access adjacent radars from Blacksburg (KFCX), Raleigh (KRAX), Sterling (KLWX), and Dover AFB (KDOX) through the outage period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . TMG NEAR TERM . JDM SHORT TERM . CP/TMG LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . TMG MARINE . MAM/RHR EQUIPMENT . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi70 min WSW 1 43°F 1003 hPa43°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi58 min S 2.9 G 2.9 45°F 1002.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi52 min SW 1 G 2.9 45°F 45°F1001.5 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi45 minW 67.00 miOvercast40°F38°F91%1003.4 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA19 mi46 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F44°F100%1002.8 hPa
Emporia, Emporia-Greensville Regional Airport, VA21 mi45 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F40°F100%1003.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPTB

Wind History from PTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5SW3CalmCalmSE3CalmSE4S7SE7
G15
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1 day agoCalmSW5CalmCalmW4W4W6NW5CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW4SW5SW4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:11 AM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:22 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:32 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:01 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.3-0.10.71.62.42.72.62.11.50.90.4-0-0.3-0.20.51.52.32.82.82.51.91.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:41 AM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:10 PM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:02 PM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.10.61.422.42.42.11.50.90.4-0-0.3-0.10.41.322.42.62.41.91.30.80.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.