Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Creek, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:27PM Saturday January 25, 2020 9:13 AM EST (14:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:59AMMoonset 6:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 713 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers this morning, then a chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 713 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure moves across the waters this morning, and pushes off to the northeast this afternoon. Low pressure will linger over new england Sunday and Monday, as high pressure remains centered over the midwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Creek, VA
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location: 36.98, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 251218 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 718 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold front crosses the region this morning. High pressure builds in for the end of the weekend. A weak disturbance tracks across the area on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 300 AM EST Saturday .

This morning there is a closed upper low over the OH valley which is expected to drift towards the great lakes region throughout the day. At the surface, latest analysis shows a surface low just west of Richmond, and a cold front extending southward through South Central VA and central NC. Rain showers along and ahead of the front will continue to progress from west to east during the morning as the low progresses NE towards the Mid-Atlantic coast and drags the cold front across the area. Precip timing is 06-11Z for the Richmond area, 09-15Z for the VA peninsula, Tidewater, and NE NC, and 10-17Z for the MD and VA eastern shore. Precip amounts generally 0.5-1.0 inch with locally higher amounts. Left slight chance thunder in across NE NC where instability is a tad higher, although convection has remained shallow so the chances of thunder remain low. Winds ahead of the front this morning are SE 10-15 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

Cold front will cross the area later this morning bringing an end to the rain from west to east. Some residual low level moisture will remain over the northern peninsula and eastern shore, so a few light showers are possible in those locations through the afternoon until the trough axis crosses the area later today. Winds behind the front will be W/SW 10-15 mph. Despite the frontal passage, temps will remain warm today with high temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 300 AM EST Saturday .

High pressure to our SW builds in late Saturday night through Sunday. Cooler air filters in from the west but temps will only fall to around seasonal norms. Low temps Sunday morning in the 30s and high temps upper 40s to lower 50s.

A weak disturbance will pass just to our south on Monday. There is some uncertainty about how far north the precip reaches. Have slight chance to chance pops over the southern half of the forecast area. Models are in fairly good agreement that QPF amounts will be light, a few hundredths at best. Temps on Monday will again be around seasonal norms, with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Friday .

A weak shortwave moves through the southern portion of the CWA late Monday night into early Tuesday bringing with it a slight chance of a few scattered rain showers before sunrise. High pressure moves in Tuesday and persists into Wednesday evening. A coastal low moves NE off the Carolina coastline well offshore on Thursday. There is high uncertainty with this system as to whether or not it will be close enough to produce precipitation for the CWA. The Euro is the least aggressive, the GFS the most, and the CMC a mixture of the two. As such have kept PoPs at 10-25%. High pressure once again moves into the region Friday and will persist until early Saturday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal through the period. Lows Tuesday- Friday morning will range from the upper 20s in the NW to the low- mid 30s in the SE. Lows on Saturday morning will be slightly warmer with low 30s in the NW and low 40s in the SE. Highs will range from the mid-upper 40s Tuesday and Thursday, low-mid 40s on Wednesday (with the Ern Shore being the coldest in the low 40s), and from the upper 40s in the NW to lower 50s in the SE Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 615 AM EST Saturday .

Surface low is NE of Richmond this morning, with the trailing cold front progressing across the area. The front should exit the coast over the next couple of hours. This will bring an end to the heaviest rainfall across the area, although areas of light to moderate rain will continue for several more hours. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue this morning, with occasional IFR ceilings at SBY/ORF for the next several hours during periods of moderate to heavy rain. Conditions will improve gradually from west to east later this morning as the system exits the area. By early afternoon all TAF locations should return to VFR for the remainder of the TAF period. Behind the front winds will be W/SW 5-10 kts.

High pressure builds in tonight through Sunday, with mainly VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites.

MARINE. As of 700 AM EST Saturday .

Have dropped SCA's in the Bay (except for the Mouth of the Bay) and for the lower James as winds have diminished considerably over the past hour as showers are now passing offshore.

Previous Discussion . Low pressure is currently moving through south central VA and will move E/NE into Chesapeake Bay through late this morning, and off the Delmarva this aftn. Seas have risen to 5-7 ft on the coastal waters and avg 2-3 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the Rivers early this morning. SCA headlines remain unchanged for this forecast package, though with the area of showers and stronger winds currently moving into the waters, we may be able to drop some of the headlines early (by 7am) for the lower James River.

The cold front associated with the low pressure system will be in a weakened state as it crosses the area waters later this morning with little in the way of cold air and really more of a moisture boundary with drier air moving in from the W this aftn. Thus, the westerly flow this aftn and tonight will be only about 10-15 kt. The only SCA headlines that are expected to linger overnight and into Sun AM will be for lingering seas of 5-8 ft on the coastal waters due to swell and dominant periods of 9-12 sec. Sub-SCA conditions are expected all areas by Sun aftn. W winds will continue to be in the 5-15 kt range Sun-Mon as sfc low pressure lingers well to our N/NE. Some increase in winds is expected Mon night as marginally colder air moves S. For now have kept conditions just below SCA criteria.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/ERI NEAR TERM . CMF SHORT TERM . CMF LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . CMF MARINE . LKB/RHR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi103 min S 1 49°F 1012 hPa49°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi61 min 49°F 1012.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi61 min 49°F 44°F1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi18 minN 010.00 miOvercast51°F49°F95%1011.8 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA19 mi19 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds52°F50°F93%1012 hPa
Emporia, Emporia-Greensville Regional Airport, VA21 mi18 minN 0 mi51°F51°F100%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPTB

Wind History from PTB (wind in knots)
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E8E6E6E7E7E7E9E8E6SE7W4W4N4CalmE3SE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmNE4CalmN3N4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N5NE4N3N4N4N4N5
2 days agoN7N6N6N5NE6NE9N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:11 AM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:18 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.71.62.32.62.521.50.90.40-0.2-0.10.61.62.42.82.82.521.40.90.40

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:41 AM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:06 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:13 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:47 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.31.92.32.321.50.90.40-0.2-00.61.322.42.62.41.91.40.90.4-0-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.