Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Creek, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday July 9, 2020 7:16 AM EDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 9:14AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 657 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers early this morning, then a chance of showers late this morning. Showers likely with a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely early in the evening. A chance of tstms until early morning. A chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 657 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure just off the carolina coast will slowly lift northeast toward the area overnight and early Thursday. The low then pushes north along the mid-atlantic coast from Thursday night through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Creek, VA
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location: 36.98, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 091038 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 638 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure moves slowly northeast along the North Carolina coast today and tonight before lifting northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Friday and Saturday. A frontal boundary will linger along the coast through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 640 AM EDT Thursday .

Latest MSAS shows weak high pressue over the Va Piedmont with low pressure just east of MHX. The system seems to be getting better organized as the sat loop is showing cooling cloud tops and sct convection out over the Gulf Stream this morning. NHC conts to monitor for potential tropical development over the next 24 hrs.

Models and current data suggests this systms track is just off the NC coast thru 21Z, then slowly turning it nnw and moving it towards HAT by 00Z. This slower track will result in some significant changes to the grids today. Main change was to lower PoPs across the board this morning, then bring likely PoPs into sern VA/nern NC this aftrn. Chc PoPs elsewhere with only a 20-30 PoP along and west of I95 and lwr Md ern shore as the weak high slowly gives way to the storms moisture fields. Thunder was cut back as well, basically limited to the aftrn given modest instability in the tropical airmass. Depending on radar trends this morning, will have to monitor for possible waterspouts in the outer most bands of the systm as they apprch the nrn OB/sern Va.

QPF was also cut back thru 00z, with amts btwn 1/2 to 3/4 inch limited to far sern VA/nern NC zones. A flash flood watch was considered starting today, but given the uncertainity and changing trends, decided to hold off on any watch and let the day shift evaluate the need for one later today.

Otw, Pt sunny skies become mstly cldy. Highs low-mid 80s east, btwn 85-90 west where there will be more sun and less pcpn.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Models in decent agreement tracking the systm near or along the nrn OB this eve, just east of Va Beach late tonite then hugging the Delmarva coastline Fri morning before pushing north into NJ Fri aftrn. Data also suggests the greatest wind affects will be over the waters, but moisture fields (highest PW's) show a signifcant surge of tropical moisture accompanying the systm as it tracks north tonite and Fri. There will also be a sharp pcpn gradient west of the Ches Bay. Thus, PoPs will be highest tonite and Fri along the coast with chc PoPs to the west. QPF is anthr challenge and will likely determine where a ff watch will be needed. Best guess attm will be along the ern shore where a general 2-3 inch rainfall is expected with amts up to 4 inches from SBY-OXB. 1 to 1.5 inches over the Ches Bay and sern Va/nern NC with much less amts to the west. Lows tonite upr 60s-lwr 70s. Skies will likely become pt sunny Fri as the systm moves ne pulling in drier air on gusty NW winds. Highs mid 80s along the ern shore, upr 80s-lwr 90s west of the Ches Bay.

The system continues to track NE of the local area Fri night and Sat. However, lingering moisture along a lagging trof keeps the chc for sct convection going. Lows Fri nite in the low-mid 70s. Highs Sat in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. HI values Sat in the upr 90s-lwr 100s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday .

Overall the operational models are in decent agreement with a Eastern US Trough being the dominant weather feature in the extended period, but the strength of the trough differs. The GFS is sharpest and deepest during the period while the ECMWF is quicker to begin lifting the trough out toward the end of the period. For now have blended between the two with having more convective activity early in the period on Sunday and Monday with a stronger trough and an associated sfc cold front moving into the area. Then begin to lessen the chances for convection by mid week as the surface front dissipates and the Bermuda High starts to rebuild into the SE US. The pops are mainly diurnal with the best chances for pcpn late in the afternoon into the early evening. For temperatures have kept readings in the low 90s through the period, but should the trough deepen a little more on Sunday into Monday, would not be surprised to see temperatures held down just a touch into the upper 80s for early in the week. But overall should not be far from normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 640 AM EDT Thursday .

Sct shwrs in advance of the coastal low will move nnw across the sern TAF sites this morning. More widespread shwr actvity will overspread the coastal TAF sites later this aftrn and eve then spread north along the ern shore tonite. NNE winds arnd 10 kts become E and increase along the coast to btwn 15-25 kts tonite as the systm tracks north along the coast. CIGS/VSBYS will vary in any shwr with pockets of hvy rain along the coast tonite. Appears that RIC will be to far west to see many affects from this systm.

OUTLOOK . Degraded flight conditions continue through Friday morning with slowly improving conditions later in the day as the systm moves farther to the north. Conditions generally improve over the weekend, although afternoon/evening showers and storms may result in brief flight restrictions.

MARINE. As of 430 AM EDT Thursday .

An are of low pressure has emerged off the NC overnight, south of Cape Hatteras, and is becoming better organized. The NHC has given a 80% chance developing into a tropical depression today as the low tracks north towards our area. SCAs have been issues for most of the area coastal waters through Friday afternoon as the low tracks along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts.

Conditions this morning are fairly benign, especially north of the VA/NC border. Winds are E 5-10 kt with the low pressure centered well south of the area. Winds will quickly increase throughout the morning for the southern portion of the area. Easterly winds are expected to be around 20 kt, with gusts near 25 kt by mid morning today for areas south of Cape Charles and the southern portion of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. The center of low pressure will be north of Cape Hatteras by this evening and winds will be increase across area waters. Winds are expected to be NE 20-25 kt. with gusts up to 30 kt for the southern Chesapeake Bay and VA/NC Atlantic coastal waters by this evening. Seas will be increasing to 5- 7 ft, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay and James River will be 2-4 ft (4-5 ft near the CBBT).

The center of the low pressure will be track north along the VA coast tonight. At this time, the track of the low appears to remain just off our coast. Therefore, winds will become NE then N 15-20 with gusts up to 30 kt as the low passes just to the east. This may change with any shift in the track.

Winds will become W to NW as the low pressure tracks north towards the NJ coast Friday. Winds will be decreasing from south to north during the day on Friday with SCA condition continuing into Friday afternoon.

For the weekend, winds will be SW 10-15 with gusts up to 20 kt and the chance for afternoon thunderstorms.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Nuisance to minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide cycles on Thursday and Friday. Water level rises of around 1 ft above normal tide possible.

High risk of rip currents on Thursday for Virginia Beach and NE NC beaches. Moderate risk of rip currents for the MD/VA eastern shore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . ESS AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi46 min ENE 1 76°F 1014 hPa74°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi46 min ENE 11 G 13 79°F 1013.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi46 min ENE 15 G 18 79°F 82°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi41 minNE 47.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1013.9 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA19 mi82 minN 07.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1012.6 hPa
Emporia, Emporia-Greensville Regional Airport, VA21 mi21 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F72°F99%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPTB

Wind History from PTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4CalmNE3NE3NE10E7NE8SE4E8E6E7E8E6E3E4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N4
1 day agoCalmSW4S3CalmS3S5SW8S5S5E7SE3SE3SE6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmS3SW4W3S3SW7SW6S5S6S6SW7S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:11 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.50.511.92.73.23.332.51.91.40.90.50.30.51.22.12.83.132.72.1

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.40.91.62.32.832.92.41.91.30.80.40.30.51.11.82.42.72.82.62.11.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.