Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stony Creek, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Record to near-record high temperatures are expected from today through Thursday.

2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week.

3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10".

DISCUSSION
As of 915 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures are expected from today through Thursday.

Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday.
The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Highs today climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with low to mid 90s on Wednesday, and mainly low 90s on Thursday. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below. Thunderstorms will develop well to our NW (over WV/PA) this afternoon but are expected to dissipate well before reaching the area this evening as they run into the warmer temps aloft (and lower sfc dew points).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week.

With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry, have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs around 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central. Minimum RH values are, and will continue to be low, averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast through Thursday, keeping fire wx conditions around critical fire wx thresholds through much of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10".

Slightly cooler (80s) on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Very warm and dry (~90F inland) on Saturday as upper heights build again. Global models and ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. Moisture return ahead of this front will be a little bit better than what is expected on Friday, but it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10" of rain are 30-60% (highest near the coast). Mild wx returns behind the front early next week.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. FEW cumulus could develop in the aftn. Winds remain around 10 kt this morning.
Gusty SW winds (to ~20 kt) return during the late morning- afternoon.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic.

MARINE
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week and into the weekend.

- Next round of potential elevated marine conditions return by the end of the weekend.

Morning weather analysis shows a 1026mb high pressure sitting off the southeast coast. Due to the location of the high pressure SW winds continue to prevail across all waters. Latest observations are showing winds sustained between 10 to 15 kt. Seas at this time remain benign with waves between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. Through the course of the day and generally through the week winds will remain out of the SW and sub-SCA conditions will prevail as the high pressure off the SE coast locks into place. Winds will generally remain between 10 to 15 kt with perhaps some brief 20 kt gusts across the open ocean. Will note that there is the potential for perhaps a brief period of 20 kt gusts across the bay late Thursday into Friday as a weak cold front pushes out of the north. However, confidence in these 20 kt gusts are low at this time due to the pressure gradient being weak and winds prevailing out of the SW. Seas during this time frame will remain steady with 1-2ft seas across the bay and 3 to 4 ft seas across the ocean.

The next best chance for any marine headlines (primarily SCA) will be Sunday into Monday. Recent model guidance continues to show a moderate to strong cold front moving across the area. As this cool and dry airmass moves into place it will allow winds to increase over the waters with gusts potentially between 20-25kt. Trends in the model data will continue to be monitored as the weekend approaches.

CLIMATE
Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/16

Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/16

Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>085-087>090-509>522.
MARINE...None.