Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 11:54 AM   Moonset 2:09 AM

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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 255 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Through 7 pm - E winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - SE winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - N winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

ANZ600 255 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a frontal boundary over the carolinas is forecast to lift north as a warm front into Wednesday. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a stronger cold front then expected by early in the weekend.

FXUS61 KAKQ 161854 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 254 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
This morning's front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front late tonight into Wednesday. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a stronger cold front then expected by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Afternoon analysis shows strong low pressure over eastern Nebraska with high pressure near the Hudson Bay ridging south into the local area. Skies are mostly clear N and E of I-64 with some high clouds across the SW half of the area. Temperatures are in the 70s for inland areas with upper 60s near the coast where onshore flow continues.

The front that came through the region early this morning has moved well SW into NC. Expect dry conditions to persist through the remainder of the day but the front is forecast to begin lifting back NE tonight which will allow for a slight chance of showers across the west. A weak trough to the north may provide enough of a focus for a few showers across the northern tier of counties late tonight but PoPs are generally below 20%. Lows tonight will fall into the low and mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

The front lifts NE through the area on Wednesday, bringing an increase in cloud cover and a chance for showers during the afternoon and evening. Highs will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s SW of I-64. The front will slow/stall to the NE of 64 which will keep highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Some instability is noted on forecast soundings during the evening hours so have added a slight chance of thunder to the weather grids. Low temps will be a few degrees warmer with upper 50s to low 60s forecast.

Warm temperatures return for Thursday with a weak cold front moving through in the afternoon. Most guidance keeps the local area dry.
Temps range from the mid 80s across the SW to the 70s for the immediate coast and Eastern Shore. Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 50s with a few upper 40s possible for the MD Eastern Shore. A stronger front approaches the region on Friday with increasing chances for showers across the west in the afternoon.
Will keep a mention of thunder in the forecast as well. High temps will again be warmest across the SW counties and coolest NE, ranging from the mid to upper 70s to the low 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

A stronger cold front is progged to approach from the NW Fri night and the 12z/16 global models now all show the front crossing the area early in the day on Saturday. Shower chances increase Friday evening ahead of the front but remain below 50%. Guidance has trended downward with respect to PoPs on Saturday with most areas now 20% or less. With the earlier frontal passage timing, any mention of thunder has been removed for the area Saturday. Temps on Saturday will range from the upper 60s for the Eastern Shore to he low and mid 70s elsewhere. It will be much cooler behind the front on Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. In addition, a southern stream low pressure system may bring additional rain to the region during this time (highest PoPs are in SE VA/NE NC)...although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this feature. Otherwise, high pressure slowly builds in from the NW into early next week. Warming trend for Tuesday with highs back into the low 70a away from the water.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through the 12z/16 TAF period. A cold front has just crossed ORF/PHF, and will cross ECG shortly. Winds become NE at ~10 kt behind the front, although there will be a 1-3 hour period of 20 kt gusts at PHF/ORF/ECG from now-14z. Winds veer to the E then SE this aftn/evening with clear skies outside of SCT-BKN high clouds.
Cloud bases lower tonight as the front starts to move back north as a warm front. MVFR CIGs are possible late tonight at RIC with low-end shower chances after 06z.

Outlook: Shower chances continue Wednesday/Wednesday night as that frontal boundary continues to move north before stalling in/near the eastern shore. MVFR-IFR restrictions are possible Wed-Thu AM, especially at RIC/SBY. Drier conditions move in by late Thursday.

MARINE
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

NE winds have decreased to generally 10 kt or less across the waters as high pressure builds overhead. The high will shift offshore by this evening allowing winds to turn SE into Wednesday. Winds turn southerly at 10 to 15 kt by Wed evening as a frontal boundary just south of the area moves back north. Weak low pressure moves across the waters Thu allowing winds to turn north to northeast by Thu afternoon. This low is forecast to deepen slightly just offshore of the Delmarva late Thursday into Thursday night, which will allow N- NE winds to increase to 15 kt across the waters. Will keep conditions below small craft advisory criteria for now as the low is expected to stay far enough offshore to limit SCA conditions. NE winds will continue Friday into Saturday although they will gradually diminish as the low weakens just offshore and high pressure builds in.

Waves generally 2 ft or less in the bay through the week (except building to up to 3 feet at the entrance of the bay by Friday).
Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 ft by Friday over the ocean.

CLIMATE
Norfolk (KORF) set a new daily record high temperature with their high of 90 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high of 89 (1941).

Wallops (KWAL) set a new daily record high temperature with their high of 87 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high of 84 (1967).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Old Point Comfort
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Tue -- 03:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:12 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:31 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:37 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Point Comfort, Hampton Roads, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:43 AM EDT     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:20 PM EDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:37 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots

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