Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:45 PM   Moonset 1:38 AM

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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1003 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon - .
Overnight - N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers late this evening. Thu - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Thu night - N winds 15 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sat night - E winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ600 1003 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system lingers just offshore into Thursday, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system may move in this weekend with another round of elevated winds and seas.

FXUS61 KAKQ 160133 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 933 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure lingers off the northern Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Mainly dry conditions prevail Thursday through Friday afternoon, but showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 935 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated/widely scattered showers early tonight.

- Warmer and mainly dry Thursday with partly sunny skies.

Low pressure (~1002 mb) will linger off the DE/NJ coast tonight, with widespread low cloud cover expected but with mainly dry wx after midnight (as lingering showers/tstms dissipate with the loss of daytime heating). Lows generally in the upper 50s-60F.

The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the aftn.
Temps rise to the upper 60s/lower 70s on the eastern shore with mid 70s to near 80F well W of the Bay. There may be just enough lingering moisture fro an isolated shower along the eastern shore during the aftn/early evening. Expect most of the aftn heating and potential convection farther inland to remain W of the CWA (though have included a 15% PoP in the far W).

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Dry through mid/late aftn Friday, with a few showers/storms possible W of I-95 late in the day. Becoming unsettled with widespread showers and locally heavy rain possible Saturday.

Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s- 60F with dry wx expected as weak sfc high pressure will be over the region.

Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the area on Friday before moving offshore by Friday evening. The low level flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid- upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out near 80F inland. The next system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas E of I-95 will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.

Friday night through Saturday continues to look unsettled as the models are in decent agreement with the next system moving in from the W. The consensus places the upper level low across the lower OH Valley Fri night, drifting to the E through Saturday.
At the sfc, high pressure will be off to our NE along/off the New England coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure tracking just S of the upper low. Models depict PWat values rising to 1.60-1.80" Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift expected over the region. WPC currently has a Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy rainfall of the past 24 hrs will need to monitor trends as this will likely lead to additional/continued hydro concerns. High Saturday in the 60s N to the 70s S, with aftn tstms mainly possible in southern VA and NE NC. Severe tstms are not expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled with at least scattered showers on Sunday.

- Mainly dry weather returns early next week.

Lingering showers are expected on the back side of the system on Sunday. The 12Z/15 GFS is generally the wettest model with the upper level low progressing very slowly while the ECMWF is a bit faster to push the deeper moisture to the coast by Sun aftn.
The GFS actually lingers the upper low through Monday. For now will follow the consensus weighted to the NBM which supports high chc PoPs (likely Sun aftn across the SE), with diminishing PoPs Sun night /Mon (but still w/ ~20% chances along the coast Monday). Highs will stay a bit below avg Sunday and Monday, then warming to near to above avg Tue-Wed as high pressure finally returns. There is a chc for some late day convection Wed.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly MVFR flight restrictions will prevail through tonight with CIGs lingering in the 1500-2500 ft range. Guidance hints at the potential for some brief periods of IFR CIGs at SBY, mainly between 06z and 09z, though confidence is fairly low that this actually occurs. Conditions improve Thursday morning, with CIGs returning to VFR at all sites by Thursday afternoon.

Outlook: There will be the potential for another round of sub- VFR CIGs at SBY Thursday night into early Friday, otherwise primarily VFR conditions through Friday afternoon. Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds will continue into Thursday as low pressure meanders offshore. SCAs remain in effect.

- Lighter winds finally return for Friday/Saturday.

- Winds and seas may increase again this weekend as the next system moves through.

The surface low pressure continues to slide across our northern waters and offshore of the Maryland Eastern Shore. It created periods of 34+ kt gusts across the north through mid-day, but winds have now subsided back into SCA criteria. In the Bay and rest of the coastal waters, winds are mostly northwesterly at 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt. Guidance continues to indicate winds increasing tonight into Thursday on the backside of the low as it lingers just offshore. SCAs have been extended for the Bay and lower James until Thursday at 21Z/6pm. Winds will be gusty across the coastal waters too, but should remain below their SCA criteria; however, 5+ ft waves will linger into Thursday, particularly across the north.
Right now, the SCAs for the coastal waters from Cape Charles to Currituck expire at 4pm today due to seas subsiding to 3-4ft and winds expected to remain below SCA thresholds. The SCA from Parramore Island to Cape Charles will drop off at 1AM as seas lower, with the northern tier holding onto their SCA until Thursday afternoon as those 5+ ft seas linger a bit longer. Winds will subside late Thursday as the low pressure finally drifts further southeast, likely allowing all SCAs to end.

Lighter (~10 kt) northeast or east winds are expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. Seas also likely drop to 3-4 ft. Another low pressure system crosses the area Sunday with winds potentially increasing again. Model guidance differs with respect to the position of the low. The ECMWF brings the system and elevated winds in earlier on Saturday, while the GFS waits until Sunday into Monday for the elevated conditions to arrive. Currently leaning towards the ECMWF, but will continue to monitor.

HYDROLOGY
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Have added Flood Warnings for Rawlings and Stony Creek along the Nottoway river for minor flooding expected to begin this evening and lasting into Fri (late Fri/early Sat at Stony Creek).

The Flood Warning for Allen Creek near Boydton has been cancelled. The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville remains under a Flood Warning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.

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Old Point Comfort
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Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:28 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:01 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:00 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Point Comfort, Hampton Roads, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:55 AM EDT     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:49 PM EDT     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots

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