Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smithfield, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold front pushes south early this morning, with final round of scattered showers and tstms across SE VA/NE NC through 6-9 AM.

- Otherwise, clearing out and cooler today, cool tonight/early Thursday.

Early this morning, the cold front is aligned WSW to ENE from north-central NC to Norfolk/VA Beach, and slowly drifting south. Showers and storms continue along and to the S of the boundary, and this trend will likely persist through sunrise as the upper trough axis and associated shortwave passes through.
It will be dry N of the front, but with high chc to likely PoPs through ~10Z for SE VA, and ~12Z in NE NC. There remains around 500 J/KG of sfc-based CAPE across NE NC, but CIN has also increased over the past few hrs. In addition, shear has weakened, so no additional severe storms are expected. Locally heavy downpours will be possible through sunrise. Lows will average in the mid 50s N to the low- mid 60s SE.

The model consensus for later today is for shortwave energy to be pushing off the coast after ~12Z, which should be sufficient to force the boundary south of the Albemarle sound. Will maintain up to ~20% PoPs across interior NE NC this aftn, but went dry elsewhere given much drier air moving in from the N as ~1025mb sfc high pressure centered over Ontario ridges SSE into the Delmarva this aftn. With the onshore flow today, highs will be much cooler, ranging from the mid to upper 70s well inland, to the mid 60s/around 70F near the coast. This is close to normal for late April. Mostly clear and cool tonight with diminishing winds as the high builds to near 1030mb across New England, with the sfc ridge nosing S into the local area. Lows in the mid 40s to around 50F inland, and 50-55F at the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry Thursday, patchy fog possible early Friday, then warmer with a chc for showers and a few tstms Friday aftn/evening.

High pressure becomes centered off the southern New England/northern mid-Atlantic coast Thursday, gradually pushing farther offshore by Friday. The next upper trough is forecast to amplify from central Canada later Fri, becoming a strong upper trough across the upper Great Lakes by Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure tracks ENE from the upper MS Valley Friday morning, to the eastern Great Lakes Friday night. This will lift a warm front north across the area Fri aftn/evening. Mostly sunny with near to slightly above avg temperatures Thursday with highs ranging from 75-80F inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast. Seasonable/dry Thursday night/Friday morning with lows mainly in the low-mid 50s, though a few upper 40s will be possible over the interior eastern shore and northern Neck.
There also may be some patchy fog early Friday with low level onshore flow and slowly increasing dew pts. Friday will be a transition day as the warm front brings increasing moisture into the region. There is some uncertainty, however, as to the degree of moisture return (the 00Z/23 GFS wetter than the NAM/ECMWF). For now, will have chc PoPs (and aftn tstms possible), mainly along and W of I-95 and slight chc to the east for Friday aftn/Friday night. Warmer with highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the region. Warm, with well above avg temperatures for Friday night (lows in the 60s).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer than average and unsettled Saturday.

- Dry Sunday-Tuesday. Near normal temperatures Sunday and Monday, then warmer again Tuesday.

An upper level trough is forecast to continue amplifying Saturday, becoming a closed low Sunday across Maine and into the Canadian maritimes. Timing is a bit uncertain at this range, but the entire area should be in the warm sector Saturday, with sfc low pressure tracking E to NE into the St Lawrence Valley. A chc for showers Saturday morning , then PoPs increase to 60-80% by Saturday afternoon. Widespread showers and a few storms are possible, though at this time, the severe threat is not looking that impressive with the main shortwave tracking across the NE states, and fairly minimal mid level lapse rates and only modest shear. Nevertheless, will continue watching trends for this system as the models are not great at this range with such details. High temperatures on Saturday will continue to be above average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With a fairly strong upper level ridge over the central CONUS Sun- Mon, the NW flow aloft downstream over the NE CONUS should allow for a strong area of sfc high pressure to build SE into the local area into early next week. Sunday and Monday will be dry and cooler (near normal). Remaining dry Tuesday, but with above normal temperatures returning (highs back into the 80s).

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail to start the 06z/23 TAF period, but an area of showers with embedded tstms is moving ENE along and just ahead of a cold front approaching from the N. This will bring at least some periodic flight restrictions in brief moderate to locally heavy downpours through ~10Z across far SE VA, and through ~12Z for NE NC. Elsewhere, VFR conditions for RIC/SBY where the front has already passed through. Winds are SW at 5-10kt at PHF/ORF/ECG, and will shift to the NNE at around 10kt behind the front. Timing for the wind shift will be between 07-09Z for PHF/ORF, and 09-11Z at ECG. Some continued lower CIGs will be possible at ECG and perhaps ORF through ~15Z.
Otherwise, VFR and clearing today with NE winds shifting to the E at around 10kt (locally 10-15kt near the coast). Mostly clear with diminishing winds tonight.

Outlook: VFR/dry Thursday. Mainly VFR Thursday night/Friday morning but there could be some patchy fog early Friday morning with light onshore flow and ahead of a weak warm front. Scattered showers possible Friday aftn/evening, becoming widespread along with a few tstms Saturday as the next cold front pushes into the area. VFR conditions return for Sunday.

MARINE
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign marine pattern expected to persist through Friday.

- Winds increase ahead of and especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend with Small Craft conditions likely.

Early morning analysis shows a weak front crossing the waters with winds becoming NW 5-10 kt behind the boundary. Waves are 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Winds become NE ~10 kt around sunrise (locally 10-15 kt over northern portions of the coastal waters as well as the southern Ches Bay/lower James) and continue through the day today. High pressure north of the area will result in sub-SCA onshore flow Thursday into Friday afternoon, becoming SE 10-15 kt Friday evening as the high translates offshore. 00z guidance and local wind probs continue to show the potential for marginal (prefrontal) SCA conditions early Saturday morning with the relative highest chance over the northern Ches Bay zones. However, the northerly surge behind the front is much more likely to result in widespread SCA conditions across the local waters Saturday night into Sunday.
Waves will generally be 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay this week, increasing to 2-3 ft Saturday and potentially to 3-4 ft for a period behind the frontal passage. Seas will average 2-3 ft through the week, building to 3-4 Saturday and 4-5 ft late Saturday into Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.