Sunday, May31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rushmere, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 31, 2020 3:31 PM EDT (19:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:34PMMoonset 1:41AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 1253 Pm Edt Sun May 31 2020
This afternoon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming nw late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1253 Pm Edt Sun May 31 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds into the region through mid week. A warm front lifts north of the area Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rushmere, VA
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location: 37.06, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 311821 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 221 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the region through mid week. A warm front lifts north of the area Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/. As of 120 PM EDT Sunday .

A broken cloud deck in the SE portion of the CWA continues to erode and move SE this afternoon. Few to scattered cumulus continue to increase in coverage from the NW this afternoon/evening ahead of the next shortwave which begins to push through the region late this evening. Expect clouds to move out of the area overnight. Temperatures are currently in the low 70s and are expected to warm into the mid 70s for highs over the next few hours.

SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday .

Mostly clear/comfy tonight. Lows upper 40s-mid 50s (mid 40s at LKU). Mostly sunny Mon as the high pushes se across the region. Highs in the low-mid 70s. The high slides off the NC coast Mon night. Mostly clear to start with some overnight clouds as a trof approaches from the north. Lows in the 50s.

Low pressure moves east across the nern states Tue while the high becomes centered off the Carolina coast. Models differ wrt the movement of a convective complex across Pa. NAM drops in se across the area Tue afternoon while the GFS is slower and closer to the coast along a developing warm front that extends east to near the Delmarva. Meanwhile, both the ECMWF/Canadian not impressed with any complex. So for now, added slight chc PoPs across the Delmarva Tue afternoon and evening. This will likely change with later model runs as is typical with any convective complex in a nw flow. Warmer with highs upr 70s- lwr 80s west of the Ches Bay but remaining in the low-mid 70s over the ern shore. Lows Tue night in the mid-upper 60s.

The Bermuda ridge dominates Wed with the first widespread 90 (+) degree day the year (H85 temps btwn 18C-20C). Mostly sunny as any convection stays to the north. Highs in the upper 80s-lower 90s except low-mid 80s at the beaches.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday .

Another convective complex is progged to slide se in the nw flow Thurs. It will be another hot day before any convection develops. Highs near 90 over most of the piedmont with mid to upper 80s along the coast and low to mid 80s along the Eastern Shore.

The ridge remains in place through the extended period (centered to our west) and temps will remain in the mid to upper 80s Friday and Saturday, except along the Eastern Shore where temps will be slightly cooler in the low 80s. Lows throughout the extended are expected to be generally in the upper 60s to around 70F.

Due to the positioning of the ridge, we will be located on the ern side of it and therefore NW flow will dominate with a series of s/w's moving around the ridge producing periodic convection.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 130 PM EDT Sunday .

VFR conditions through the forecast period with N winds somewhat breezy along the coast through ~21Z (gusts to 20kt). Mainly SKC/light winds this evening with partly cloudy skies overnight and winds increasing from the N to 10-15kt (highest near the coast). Mostly sunny with winds 10kt or less Monday.

OUTLOOK . Mainly VFR conditions through late in the week, though brief flight restrictions will be possible w/ scattered showers/tstms at SBY Tue, and all sites late Wed/Thu-Fri.

MARINE. As of 100 PM EDT Sunday .

Cold front is now well south of the waters early this aftn. N-NNE winds are still gusting to around 20 kt over the Ches Bay/Lower James River, with 20-25 kt gusts across the srn coastal waters. Waves on the Ches Bay are 2-4 ft with seas of 3-3.5 ft N/4-5 ft S. Winds, waves, and seas are still expected to drop to below SCA criteria later this afternoon but another CAA surge arrives tonight-Mon AM as winds turn more to the NNE. The consensus of the latest 12z/31 guidance shows a brief (3-6 hour) period of 15-20 kt sustained winds on the Ches Bay/ocean, while local wind probs of sustained 18 kt winds have risen to nearly 50% across much of the Ches Bay. This is in addition to the fact that 925 mb temperatures are progged to drop to 6-8C late tonight with the CAA surge (coupled w/ water temperatures in the mid-upper 60s on the bay), which will promote mixing of slightly higher winds closer the top of the boundary layer. Given the above factors, have opted to extend the SCA through 7 am for the upper Ches Bay/10 am for the Lower Ches Bay/Lower James River (given that the break between SCA conditions will be brief . and sustained winds will only diminish to 10-15 kt). Timing of highest winds Monday morning looks to be from 04-10z N/06-12z S. Still anticipate that wind speeds/gusts will be just below SCA criteria on the ocean, with seas staying below 5 feet in most areas (seas could briefly touch 5 ft over the NE NC coastal waters Mon AM). Will look at possibly extending the SCA for the Currituck Sound through Mon AM with the afternoon update.

Winds become light during the day on Mon as high pressure becomes centered over the waters. Conditions will remain sub-SCA into Tuesday with winds becoming SW again by Monday night. Could see a brief uptick in SW winds (to near SCA criteria over the Lower Bay/srn coastal waters) late Tue-Tue night in advance of a weak trough of low pressure at the sfc. Winds become more westerly (w/ speeds of 10-15 kt) during the day on Wed.

CLIMATE. Most locations have note yet reached 90F this year. The current forecast has most of the CWA reaching at least 90F on Wed (June 3rd). In most years, 90F is reached by the end of May and for comparison purposes, these dates are listed below, with record highs also included:

* Average Date of 1st 90F Day/% of Yrs 1st 90F Day after June 3:

* RIC: May 13th / 20 of 123 (16%) had 1st 90F after June 3rd * ORF: May 16th / 36 of 146 (25%) had 1st 90F after June 3rd * SBY: May 27th / 37 of 114 (32%) had 1st 90F after June 3rd * ECG: May 18th / 17 of 86 (20%) had 1st 90F after June 3rd

* Record Highs Wed 6/3:

* RIC: 98 (1936) * ORF: 99 (1895) * SBY: 95 (1925) * ECG: 98 (1943)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . RMM SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . LKB/MPR MARINE . ERI/JDM CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 15 mi50 min NNE 8 G 14 70°F 1019.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi44 min NNE 6 G 9.9 71°F 70°F1018.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 20 mi50 min 70°F1019.5 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi158 min NNE 19 G 23 66°F 1020.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 21 mi44 min NE 16 G 19 68°F 1019.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi44 min NE 15 G 17 68°F 1020.1 hPa
44072 24 mi32 min ESE 16 G 19 67°F 69°F3 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi62 min NNW 1.9 74°F 1021 hPa48°F
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi44 min NE 7 G 13 72°F 71°F1019.2 hPa
44064 31 mi32 min NNE 14 G 18 67°F2 ft1019.1 hPa (-1.2)
CHBV2 31 mi50 min N 12 G 14 66°F 1018.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi44 min N 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 1019.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 37 mi50 min NNW 19 G 20 68°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi68 min NE 12 G 14 71°F1022.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi44 min N 19 G 21 1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA6 mi96 minNNE 810.00 miFair73°F45°F37%1019.3 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA11 mi38 minE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds73°F48°F43%1019.3 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA13 mi37 minN 0 miFair77°F48°F36%1019.6 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA17 mi96 minNE 1110.00 miFair71°F49°F47%1020.6 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA18 mi38 minNNE 410.00 miFair75°F44°F33%1019.3 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA22 mi93 minNNE 14 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F48°F43%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFAF

Wind History from FAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E7E5NE3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW8N8N6N7N7N7N10
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1 day agoS5NE5S4S7S8S7SW5S5SW3CalmSW3CalmSW4W3SW3CalmW3W4NW6NW5N3CalmCalmE7
2 days agoS9S7S7S8S7S6SE7S6S6S6S7S8S5S4S4S5S5S4S7S7S6SE8SE5SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia
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Burwell Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:40 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:39 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.71.31.82.32.42.321.50.90.40.10.10.40.91.62.12.52.62.41.91.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia
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Smithfield
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.91.52.12.62.82.72.31.710.40.10.10.51.11.82.52.932.82.21.50.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.