Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rushmere, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:51PM Friday December 13, 2019 9:10 PM EST (02:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:21PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 708 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight, then becoming ne late. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ600 708 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure continues to move off of the new england coast today. Low pressure from the gulf coast states tracks northeast near the mid- atlantic coast tonight into Saturday. The low intensifies off the new england coast Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure builds back in from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rushmere, VA
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location: 37.06, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 132333 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 633 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will lift northeast from the Gulf coast through tonight, then track northeast along the eastern seaboard on Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday before the next system impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

Latest sfc analysis depicts a coastal trough/stationary front extending north from FL along the mid-Atlantic coast to Long Island. Sfc low pressure was developing along the front over NE FL. The center of sfc high pressure is well off the New England coast but extends SW down the spine of the Appalachians with an in- situ wedge setup locally. Rain will remain widespread across the region the rest of today with heavier/steadier rain expected tonight (at least thru early Sat morning) as the sfc low lifts NE along the coastal trough. Have high end likely/categorical PoPs all areas thru 09z Sat. The rain and abundant cloud cover today has really locked the cold air in place from about the I-95 corridor on west where temps are mainly in the mid 30s to mid 40s as of 3 pm. Meanwhile, temps closer to the coast have reached the 50s. As WAA continues tonight, expect temps to continue to rise along/west of I-95 while remaining steady east. Low temps for the night across the Piedmont/I-95 corridor should actually occur late this afternoon/evening. Lows from the mid/upr 30s NW to the mid 50s SE. Latest model guidance does show a push of "drier" air working in from the SW by about 09z Sat as the sfc low lifts away to the NE. Will have lower PoPs (40-50%) briefly working into the western half of the FA between 09-12z Sat. Could also see some locally dense fog develop to the SW of Richmond before daybreak as some mid-level drying occurs above moist lower-levels.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

The aforementioned sfc low lifts NE and well away from the mid- Atlantic region Saturday morning. However, upper level energy and a secondary sfc low rotating in from WNW will generate additional rain chances from around 12z-18z in our SW FA to 15-21z close to the coast. NW flow will begin to take over in the afternoon behind the departing sfc low, helping to trend PoPs lower in the afternoon. However, cannot completely remove PoPs for the afternoon as additional energy associated with an upper level shortwave will still have to pass (slight chc to low chc PoPs). Some breaks in the clouds will occur in the afternoon SW. Highs from the low 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Total QPF through Saturday will average around 1" across the area.

Dry weather returns Saturday night into Sunday with WNW flow developing. Fair to partly cloudy Saturday night, then mostly sunny on Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs Sunday in the 50s. Sfc high pressure traverses the local area Sunday night, then moves well offshore on Monday. Mid-level riding along with SW flow developing out ahead of the next cold front should help to boost max temps even further. Although, increasing clouds and the potential for low stratus or fog development Monday morning will prohibit max temps from reaching their full potential. Forecast high on Monday from the upr 40s/nr 50 NW to the low/mid 60s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Friday .

An upper trough will be located over the central US early next week. A sfc low pressure system is expected to develop across the southern Plains. The low will track northeast as the upper trough moves east. Models have come into closer agreement on the track of the center of the low pressure system. It now looks like the sfc low will track northeast west of the Appalachian Mountains, then track towards the coast north of DC. The will put our entire area in warm sector of the low pressure system. Therefore, high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to approach the upper 60s across southeast VA and northeast NC, near 60 across Delmarva, and upper 50s across central VA. A cold front will push through the region as the center of the sfc low crosses northern NJ/southern NY. Models disagree on the timing of the passage of the front across the area. GFS moves the front off shore well ahead of the ECMWF, likely due to the ECMWF having a more amplified upper level trough across the eastern US. The forecast leans towards the ECMWF with a front moving through Tuesday night with rain likely.

Cooler air and drying conditions will filter into the area after the passage of a cold front Tuesday night. Wednesday morning low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s west of I-95 and upper 30s along the coast. An upper level low pressure will track southeast out of Canada and across the Northeast US Wednesday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore to mid 40s across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s (upper 20s at the VA/NC beaches).

A cold high pressure system will settle across the region Thursday with high temperatures ranging from mid 30s to near 40.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 630 PM EST Friday .

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS expected to continue at all terminals tonight and last through at least mid morning with rain impacting the region. There could be some locally dense fog SW of KRIC between 09z- 12z Sat as pcpn begins to let up. There should be a break in the steadiest rain by around 9-12z, but then the next have of rain showers arrives quickly from the SW by 15z at KRIC and translates eastward to the eastern TAF sites through 18z. Degraded flight conditions will continue into the early afternoon before some drier air finally filters in from the west after 14.18Z. N to E winds less than 10 kt will become S or SW by around 12z Sat and will become gusty at the coastal terminals by late morning.

OUTLOOK . A gradual return to VFR conditions expected Sat afternoon, with VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next week. The next chance of rain and degraded flight conditions comes on Tuesday.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EST Friday .

The 1039mb high pressure continues to move off the coast of Nova Scotia this afternoon. SCA for waves in the upper coastal zones remains in effect through Saturday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico continues to move NE bringing with it rain this afternoon through Saturday and then SCA conditions to the bay, lower James River, and all coastal zones Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Winds are mainly 10-15 kt this afternoon and are expected to become 15-20kt by Saturday and 20-25kt with gust to 30kt Saturday night into Sunday morning before subsiding to 10-15 kt by Sunday night. Waves are generally around 2 feet in the Bay and will increase to 3-4 feet by Saturday night. Seas are generally 4-6 feet and will increase to 5-7 feet Saturday night. Conditions improve Sunday night into Monday while high pressure moves into the region.

Increased SW winds Mon night into Tue become moderate to strong NNW winds post cold front by Tue night which continue into Wed night. High prob for SCAs Mon night through Wed and possibly into Thu. Hi pres builds over the waters by Fri resulting in lowering winds and improved overall marine conditions.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM SHORT TERM . JDM LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . JDM/RHR MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi52 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 49°F 49°F1011.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 15 mi64 min ENE 1 G 4.1 54°F 1011.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 20 mi64 min 49°F1011.5 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi64 min N 12 G 15 53°F 1011.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 21 mi52 min NNW 2.9 G 6 52°F 1011.8 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi52 min N 12 G 12 51°F 1011.9 hPa
44072 24 mi30 min E 9.7 G 12 51°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi85 min NNW 1.9 47°F 1014 hPa47°F
44087 28 mi40 min 48°F3 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi64 min N 2.9 G 5.1 55°F 51°F1011.8 hPa
44064 31 mi30 min N 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 1010.9 hPa
CHBV2 31 mi64 min NE 12 G 14 53°F 1010.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi52 min E 1.9 G 9.9 53°F 1011.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 37 mi64 min ENE 11 G 15 47°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi34 min NNW 12 G 14 47°F1015.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi52 min NNE 17 G 19 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA6 mi2.2 hrsNNW 510.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F88%1013.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA11 mi16 minNNW 62.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist53°F50°F89%1010.8 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA13 mi15 minN 03.00 miOvercast52°F51°F100%1011.8 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA17 mi2.2 hrsN 91.25 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist53°F53°F100%1013.8 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA18 mi16 minENE 52.00 miRain Fog/Mist51°F48°F92%1011.5 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA22 mi71 minN 62.50 miFog/Mist53°F52°F96%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFAF

Wind History from FAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE3N6NW4E4E3CalmNW6NW5--NW7NW5N5NE3NE6N4NW5--NW10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE6NE6NE5NE4CalmN3N4NE3N7NE12
G17
NE11NE7E5E7E5NE4NE3CalmCalmN3N4
2 days agoNW8NW9NW7NW6N8NE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia
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Burwell Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:50 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:55 AM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:47 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:19 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.50.90.3-0-0.10.10.71.52.22.72.92.72.31.710.40-0.10.20.71.422.2

Tide / Current Tables for Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia
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Smithfield
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:34 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:04 AM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:31 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:28 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.710.3-0.1-0.10.20.91.82.63.23.43.22.71.91.10.4-0-0.10.30.91.62.32.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.