Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rushmere, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:50PM Monday November 30, 2020 11:55 AM EST (16:55 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 943 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..W winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 943 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong storm system will to affect the region this morning into the afternoon. High pressure builds back in from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rushmere, VA
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location: 37.06, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 301031 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 531 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Intensifying low pressure tracks northward along the Appalachian mountains and into western New York this morning into tonight. The low will pull a warm front across the area this morning, followed by a cold front this afternoon into this evening. High pressure builds back in from the southwest Tuesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 355 AM EST Monday .

As of 300 AM this morning, sfc low pressure was centered near the border of extrm SW VA and extrm NE TN. A warm front extended ESE from the low across srn NC. Latest radar showed overrunning rain occurring across NC, and moving into much of VA. Some moderate to heavy rain was occurring over portions of the VA Piedmont west of I-95. This batch of overrunning rain (associated with the warm front) will push ENE across the CWA from now (300 AM) through about noontime, with the sfc low tracking NNE up into wrn PA. Moderate to heavy rain will still be possible during this time period.

The low will then track up into western NY this evening, pulling a cold front across the area this aftn into this evening. Sctd showers and tstms will be possible in the warm sector, in advance of the front. Primary threat will come from low-topped showers and embedded elevated tstms. Deep-layer shear values ramp up to 50-70 kt later this morning into this aftn, as a strong LLJ with SSW winds overspreads the region. As is typically the case, instability will be a limiting factor, but latest models depict some minimal instability reaching into areas east of I-95, as temps increase into the upper 60s to lower 70s, and dewpoints increase into the lower to mid 60s. Actual high temps will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s across most of the region. Thus, SPC has a slight risk for severe storms for these locations. In the warm sector, expect at least 500-1000 J/kg of MLCape. A marginal risk includes the remainder of the local area W of I-95. Storm mode favors quick- moving multicells/bowing segments, producing strong to locally severe wind gusts and perhaps a discrete cell or two given favorable kinematics. This also brings up large, curved hodographs that portend potential for a tornado or two over the slight risk area. The risk for tornadoes will diminish after 20Z (300 PM), as deep layered winds become close to unidirectional from the SW.

Wind gusts of 25-35 MPH (inland) and 35-45 mph (coastal areas) are expected post-frontal. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the lower eastern shore counties, and SE VA and NE NC for today. Still expect storm total QPF amounts to avg 1.00 to 2.00" (most of it through noontime). Locally higher amounts will be possible given convective elements ahead of the front during today. However, only a minimal threat exists for flash flooding given expected very progressive convection.

Things calm down across the area late this aftn into early this evening, as pcpn pushes offshore and drier air starts to filter in.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 355 AM EST Monday .

Sfc low lingers across the eastern Great Lakes as it occludes tonight, with the attendant cold front pushing offshore, with a reinforcing shot of cool air coming with the parent upper trough crossing late tonight into Tue. Generally partly cloudy tonight with lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Upper trough will swing across the area during Tue, and could produce isolated showers esply through the morning hours. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny, breezy and cooler with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Becoming clear or mostly clear and cold Tue night, with winds finally laying down and allowing temps to fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure builds across the SE and into the Mid Atlc region Wed into Wed night, with temps moderating slightly into the upper 40s to low 50s on Wed, under a sunny to mostly sunny sky. Cold once again Wed night with lows ranging from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 210 PM EST Sunday .

Medium range period begins cool and dry, with 1028+mb sfc high pressure over the area on Thursday, before it slides offshore into Friday. Temperatures will be near or just below climo normal, with highs in the 50s. Not quite as cold Thu night in developing return flow with early morning lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Pattern transitions to a more active period late in the week into next weekend, ahead of another developing potent mid/upper level trough diving across the Canadian Prairies into the High Plains Wed night/Thursday, which both deterministic runs and the member ensembles evolve into a positively- tilted upper trough by Friday night. However, the synoptic/sensible wx details are a bit more in the air. Given the positively-tilted trough, have favored the weaker/more progressive NAEFS/GEFS solution for now . which would bring another round of overrunning precip Friday into Saturday. Have maintained a slight to low-end chance PoP at this time during this period. Cold front should cross behind these showers, with drier conditions settling in for the latter half of the weekend into early next week.

Temperatures start off cool, but moderate back toward/above climo by the end of the period ahead of the next approaching cold front.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 130 AM EST Monday .

VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate to MVFR or IFR conditions through this morning at the TAF sites, with some sporadic IFR VSBYs in heavy rain possible at RIC/SBY/PHF. Also, have added low level wind shear to RIC (WS020/14040kt) and SBY (WS020/14045kt) for a couple hours from 10-11Z to 14Z this morning. Finally, there will be a threat of tstms, especially at ECG/ORF, after daybreak this morning into this aftn that will have the potential to produce strong wind gusts. S to SW winds increase late this morning into early this aftn, with gusts to 30 kt+ possible at times, especially near/along the coast. Conditions will improve to VFR at all sites by early this evening, as pcpn pushes off the coast and some drier air starts to filter into the region.

Outlook: Isolated shower possible during Tue, as the upper trough slides across the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail Tue through Thu, with high pressure building in from the SW Tue night into Thu.

MARINE. As of 355 AM EST Monday .

1000mb low pressure is deepening over NE GA and the wrn Carolinas early this morning, with -6 to -7mb 3hr pressure falls observed to the NE of the low. The wind early this morning is generally 10-15kt N to 15-20kt S out of the SE. Seas are building to 3-4ft. Numerical models still depict strong pressure falls on the order of -12 to -15mb/6hr from 09-15z this morning. This will combine with a 60-70kt SSE LLJ bringing a 3-6hr period of gale conditions in a SSE wind primarily early this morning into midday. By aftn, the wind is expected to become S with speeds ranging from 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt S, to 25-30kt with gusts up to 40kt N. Seas build to 7-12ft today, with 3-5ft waves in the Bay, and up to 6ft at the Mouth of the Bay. Gale warnings remain in effect for the ocean, Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound. The gale flags for the Bay, ocean S of Parramore Is., lower James, and Currituck Sound, are in effect through 4 pm this aftn, and through 7 pm for the ocean N of Parramore Is. SCA flags continue for the remaining river zones from 4 am to 7 pm this evening.

The associated cold front will push across the coast tonight, with a CAA surge beginning late tonight/early Tuesday morning and continuing into Tuesday night, with a WNW wind of 15-25kt. SCA conditions are likely to linger into at least Wednesday morning. The wind gradually becomes SW 10-15kt Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure settles in vicinity of the Southeast coast. Seas/waves will continue to subside during this time-period. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the region later in the week, but confidence with respect to details and timing is low at this point.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 530 AM EST Monday .

A strong area of low pressure is progged to track along the spine of the Appalachians this this morning into this aftn with a cold front crossing the area this evening into the first part of tonight. A strong SE-S wind is expected this morning into this aftn. This will cause tidal anomalies to increase, especially across the mid/upper Chesapeake Bay (and perhaps the Atlantic coast of VA), and the srn shore of the Potomac. While astronomical tides are not that high, nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected across these areas during the high tide cycle late this morning into the aftn, with tidal departures on the order of 1.3-1.5ft above astronomical. Additionally, the strong SE to S wind has the potential to produce minor flooding along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound and adjacent rivers, which will include Elizabeth City and Edenton. Also, 8ft waves are expected in the surf zone, mainly from Chincoteague to Ocean City. This will produce localized beach erosion.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Bay-side of the MD Ern Shore, with a Coastal Flood Statement in effect for the Bay-side of the VA Ern Shore, and Northumberland/Westmoreland counties. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the MD Beaches, and the ocean-side of Accomack county. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for NE NC counties the border the Albemarle and Currituck Sounds.

Lingering nuisance tidal flooding is possible across the Bay side of the MD Ern Shore Tuesday as the wind turns to the SW following the cold front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ025. NC . Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ012>016-030>032. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ017-102. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ015>017-031-032-102. VA . Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ095>097. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ099. MARINE . Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-638- 654-656-658. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637.

SYNOPSIS . TMG NEAR TERM . LKB/TMG SHORT TERM . TMG LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . TMG MARINE . AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 15 mi56 min S 14 G 19 68°F 999.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi56 min S 12 G 15 69°F 998.3 hPa (-3.1)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 20 mi56 min 999.3 hPa (-2.6)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi56 min S 19 G 22 70°F 998.5 hPa (-2.6)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 21 mi56 min SSW 13 G 18 70°F 999.2 hPa (-2.7)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi56 min S 19 G 21 66°F
44072 24 mi36 min WSW 14 G 16 63°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi86 min SSE 4.1 68°F 1000 hPa65°F
44087 28 mi90 min 59°F3 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi56 min S 8.9 G 13 72°F 999.6 hPa (-2.6)
CHBV2 31 mi56 min S 16 G 17 68°F 999 hPa (-2.8)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi56 min S 9.9 G 17 71°F 1000.4 hPa (-3.0)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 37 mi56 min S 17 G 20
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi38 min SSE 18 G 19 55°F 56°F1000.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi56 min SSE 19 G 24 1000.1 hPa (-2.9)

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA6 mi2 hrsSSE 10 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F63°F87%999.6 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA11 mi62 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F64°F81%999.3 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA13 mi61 minS 10 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F66°F88%999 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA17 mi2 hrsS 13 G 239.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F68°F100%1001 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA18 mi62 minS 9 G 1610.00 miLight Rain70°F66°F87%998.6 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA22 mi1.9 hrsS 11 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F64°F81%1001.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFAF

Wind History from FAF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN3CalmCalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3S6
2 days agoSW3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia
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Burwell Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:12 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:28 PM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.70.30.10.30.71.322.52.82.72.31.81.30.70.30.20.40.81.41.92.22.2

Tide / Current Tables for Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia
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Smithfield
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:51 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:21 AM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:37 PM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.40.70.30.10.40.91.62.42.93.23.22.82.11.40.70.30.20.511.62.22.52.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.