Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rushmere, VA
December 7, 2023 6:20 PM EST (23:20 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM Sunset 4:50PM Moonrise 1:37AM Moonset 1:38PM
ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 454 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Through 7 pm..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W late. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, increasing to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.
Through 7 pm..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W late. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, increasing to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.
ANZ600 454 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure gradually slides off the southeast coast on Friday. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the waters Sunday through Monday.
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure gradually slides off the southeast coast on Friday. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the waters Sunday through Monday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 072000 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds south of the area through tonight, before pushing offshore Friday into Saturday. A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Thursday...
Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb surface high pressure centered just off the coast of FL/GA this afternoon. Aloft, mid-level ridging continues to build east of the Mississippi River as the upper trough over the Canadian Maritimes pushes farther offshore. To the west, deepening low pressure over western Canada and the northern Rockies continues to build east toward the northern high plains. This system and a potent southern stream shortwave trough will combine to bring our next weather- maker to the region late in the upcoming weekend.
Cool and dry conditions persist overnight as the surface ridge noses north across the region. Mostly clear skies overnight, allowing for good radiational cooling with lows falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s well inland, with low 40s along the coast.
Light return flow sets up for Friday, allow temps to build 5-7 degrees warmer than today, under mostly sunny skies. Max temps will be in the mid to upper 50s north, with low 60s for southern zones.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...
Remaining dry through Saturday, with temperatures moderating as surface high pressure slides offshore Friday, then moves well out to sea Friday night through the weekend. The increasingly southerly flow will allow for a quick moderating trend to temperatures, with continued dry weather to prevail Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains Friday night.
That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the mid- low 30s NW to the 40s across the S/SE. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will range from the upper 50s to around 60 N to the upper 60s S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...
All attention then turns to our next weather maker Sunday and Sunday night, as previously referenced strong cold front approaches and crosses the region. Out ahead of the front, PW values surge from 0.5-0.75 Sat night to ~1.50" by late in the day Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will remain well into the 50s to near 60 Sat night into Sunday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s expected Sunday on breezy SSW winds. Rain chances will increase from west to east after midnight late Saturday night into Sunday morning in the piedmont, into the day Sunday over the rest of the area. Highest rain chances still appear likely during the Sunday late afternoon to Sunday night time frame. This system certainly has the potential to bring some beneficial rainfall to the region, with the latest ensemble means of both the 00z GEFS and EPS now showing a large swath of ~1.00" to 1.50" areawide, with locally higher totals likely. WPC has the entire region highlighted in a Day 4 Marginal ERO and we will need to keep an eye on the potential for at least some localized flooding, especially in flood-prone and urban areas.
The concern for at least localized strong to severe storms continues to slowly build, as well. Given such a dynamic system and very strong winds just off the surface (latest GFS/ECMWF each depict 925mb winds cranking to ~45-50 kt Sunday evening).
Availability of shear is not in question, either with 30-40 kt of 0-1km shear progged by both GFS/ECMWF. Rather, the primary challenge/issue is the degree of instability in the pseudo-warm sector ahead of the approaching frontal system, and this will need to be monitored over the next 2-3 days. For now, have included Thunder chances for the entire area and edged PoPs into categorical to high-end likely range (70-90% Sunday into Sunday night) with rain chances ramping back down Monday morning as the front crosses offshore.
While SPC does not yet have our area highlighted, machine learning models continue to key in at the possibility of severe weather/damaging wind gusts across the region on Sunday. early morning data from both CIPS SVR Analog and the CSU Machine-Learning Page are each showing an increasing signal for SVR probs over the lower mid-Atlantic for this time frame. Stay tuned and pay close attention as we continue to refine the forecast over the next couple of days.
Rain should come to an end quickly in the wake of the front late Sunday night into Monday morning, as high pressure builds back into the region. Becoming gusty behind the front on Monday with highs only in the 50s. Winds ease Monday night and Tuesday, with dry conditions and cooler temperatures to prevail for the first half of next week.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Thursday...
Pred VFR through the period. For the rest of today, expect SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Winds shift to the south Friday morning (5-10 kt) and cloud cover increases through the day.
Outlook: VFR/dry conditions prevail through the remainder of the work week. A strong cold front approaches from the west from Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub- VFR conditions and gusty winds, along with additional periods of rainfall.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...
High pressure is centered just off the coast of FL/GA this afternoon, allowing for winds to become SW ~15 kt this afternoon with the high remaining centered to our south. A weak sfc trough will track from NW to SE over the Northeast U.S. later today, which may result in an uptick in SW winds tonight to 15-20 kt. A Small Craft Advisory remain in effect this morning for the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters until 7 A.M. this morning. SCA will continue into the afternoon for ocean waters south of Cape Charles for seas around 5 ft. Gusty winds along the Chesapeake will be near 25 kt this evening and overnight, with an end to SCA gusts prior to sunrise Friday morning.
The center of high pressure will move over the Atlantic Ocean on Friday and winds turn S and diminish to 10 kt or less. This will allow seas to further diminish to 2-3 ft and waves to 1-2 ft. Benign conditions continue for the first part of the weekend with the high remains just off the coast.
Still looks like a strong storm system will impact the area on Sunday and into Monday. Strong southerly winds are expected on Sunday and a low pressure system track just inland from the coast.
South winds with gale force gusts are possible through the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. The low pressure will continue to strengthen as it move north of the area and as cold air moves in.
Therefore, gale conditions are also possible as winds become NW late Sunday night or Monday as the low tracks away from the area.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ632-634.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds south of the area through tonight, before pushing offshore Friday into Saturday. A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Thursday...
Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb surface high pressure centered just off the coast of FL/GA this afternoon. Aloft, mid-level ridging continues to build east of the Mississippi River as the upper trough over the Canadian Maritimes pushes farther offshore. To the west, deepening low pressure over western Canada and the northern Rockies continues to build east toward the northern high plains. This system and a potent southern stream shortwave trough will combine to bring our next weather- maker to the region late in the upcoming weekend.
Cool and dry conditions persist overnight as the surface ridge noses north across the region. Mostly clear skies overnight, allowing for good radiational cooling with lows falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s well inland, with low 40s along the coast.
Light return flow sets up for Friday, allow temps to build 5-7 degrees warmer than today, under mostly sunny skies. Max temps will be in the mid to upper 50s north, with low 60s for southern zones.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...
Remaining dry through Saturday, with temperatures moderating as surface high pressure slides offshore Friday, then moves well out to sea Friday night through the weekend. The increasingly southerly flow will allow for a quick moderating trend to temperatures, with continued dry weather to prevail Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains Friday night.
That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the mid- low 30s NW to the 40s across the S/SE. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will range from the upper 50s to around 60 N to the upper 60s S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...
All attention then turns to our next weather maker Sunday and Sunday night, as previously referenced strong cold front approaches and crosses the region. Out ahead of the front, PW values surge from 0.5-0.75 Sat night to ~1.50" by late in the day Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will remain well into the 50s to near 60 Sat night into Sunday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s expected Sunday on breezy SSW winds. Rain chances will increase from west to east after midnight late Saturday night into Sunday morning in the piedmont, into the day Sunday over the rest of the area. Highest rain chances still appear likely during the Sunday late afternoon to Sunday night time frame. This system certainly has the potential to bring some beneficial rainfall to the region, with the latest ensemble means of both the 00z GEFS and EPS now showing a large swath of ~1.00" to 1.50" areawide, with locally higher totals likely. WPC has the entire region highlighted in a Day 4 Marginal ERO and we will need to keep an eye on the potential for at least some localized flooding, especially in flood-prone and urban areas.
The concern for at least localized strong to severe storms continues to slowly build, as well. Given such a dynamic system and very strong winds just off the surface (latest GFS/ECMWF each depict 925mb winds cranking to ~45-50 kt Sunday evening).
Availability of shear is not in question, either with 30-40 kt of 0-1km shear progged by both GFS/ECMWF. Rather, the primary challenge/issue is the degree of instability in the pseudo-warm sector ahead of the approaching frontal system, and this will need to be monitored over the next 2-3 days. For now, have included Thunder chances for the entire area and edged PoPs into categorical to high-end likely range (70-90% Sunday into Sunday night) with rain chances ramping back down Monday morning as the front crosses offshore.
While SPC does not yet have our area highlighted, machine learning models continue to key in at the possibility of severe weather/damaging wind gusts across the region on Sunday. early morning data from both CIPS SVR Analog and the CSU Machine-Learning Page are each showing an increasing signal for SVR probs over the lower mid-Atlantic for this time frame. Stay tuned and pay close attention as we continue to refine the forecast over the next couple of days.
Rain should come to an end quickly in the wake of the front late Sunday night into Monday morning, as high pressure builds back into the region. Becoming gusty behind the front on Monday with highs only in the 50s. Winds ease Monday night and Tuesday, with dry conditions and cooler temperatures to prevail for the first half of next week.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Thursday...
Pred VFR through the period. For the rest of today, expect SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Winds shift to the south Friday morning (5-10 kt) and cloud cover increases through the day.
Outlook: VFR/dry conditions prevail through the remainder of the work week. A strong cold front approaches from the west from Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub- VFR conditions and gusty winds, along with additional periods of rainfall.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...
High pressure is centered just off the coast of FL/GA this afternoon, allowing for winds to become SW ~15 kt this afternoon with the high remaining centered to our south. A weak sfc trough will track from NW to SE over the Northeast U.S. later today, which may result in an uptick in SW winds tonight to 15-20 kt. A Small Craft Advisory remain in effect this morning for the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters until 7 A.M. this morning. SCA will continue into the afternoon for ocean waters south of Cape Charles for seas around 5 ft. Gusty winds along the Chesapeake will be near 25 kt this evening and overnight, with an end to SCA gusts prior to sunrise Friday morning.
The center of high pressure will move over the Atlantic Ocean on Friday and winds turn S and diminish to 10 kt or less. This will allow seas to further diminish to 2-3 ft and waves to 1-2 ft. Benign conditions continue for the first part of the weekend with the high remains just off the coast.
Still looks like a strong storm system will impact the area on Sunday and into Monday. Strong southerly winds are expected on Sunday and a low pressure system track just inland from the coast.
South winds with gale force gusts are possible through the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. The low pressure will continue to strengthen as it move north of the area and as cold air moves in.
Therefore, gale conditions are also possible as winds become NW late Sunday night or Monday as the low tracks away from the area.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ632-634.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFAF FELKER AAF,VA | 6 sm | 25 min | SSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 30°F | 50% | 30.04 | |
| KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA | 11 sm | 26 min | SSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 30°F | 61% | 30.08 | |
| KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA | 16 sm | 25 min | SSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 27°F | 46% | 30.07 | |
| KAKQ WAKEFIELD MUNI,VA | 18 sm | 26 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 30°F | 70% | 30.08 | |
| KNGU NORFOLK NS (CHAMBERS FLD),VA | 22 sm | 21 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 46°F | 28°F | 49% | 30.09 | |
| KPVG HAMPTON ROADS EXECUTIVE,VA | 23 sm | 24 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 46°F | 28°F | 49% | 30.10 |
Wind History from FAF
(wind in knots)Burwell Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:44 AM EST 2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:21 PM EST 0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 05:53 PM EST 2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:44 AM EST 2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:21 PM EST 0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 05:53 PM EST 2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.2 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Smithfield
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EST 2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:05 PM EST 0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:02 PM EST 2.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EST 2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:05 PM EST 0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:02 PM EST 2.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.5 |
| 6 am |
| 2.6 |
| 7 am |
| 2.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Wakefield, VA,
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