Saturday, August17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
North Shore, VA

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:11PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:23 AM EDT (13:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:37PMMoonset 7:22AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Shore, VA
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location: 37.06, -79.61     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 171045
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
645 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Weak high pressure will remain across the area today into
Sunday before slowly weakening by early next week. A cold front
will approach from the northwest by the middle of next week
bringing better chances of showers and storms by Tuesday or

Near term through tonight
As of 430 am edt Saturday...

still seeing a cluster of convection linger across the far south
early this morning where earlier instability convergence persisted
from this evening. Models suggest these showers storms will fade
shortly but perhaps still enough to keep isolated showers going
southern blue ridge early on. Otrw will see upper heights slowly
build today as surface high pressure slides east into the area. This
should bring about a switch to light southwest flow this afternoon
with only eastern sections still hanging on to a weak easterly
component due to weak low pressure to the east along the residual
front. Also appears added convergence with a weakness within the
ridge aloft over the southwest where combined with southwest flow
aloft may see another round of deeper slow moving storms into the nc
mountains. Thus bumping up pops over the southwest with more
isolated nature east. Given weak steering appears overall severe
threat lacking but pulse nature due to strong heating and moist
conditions. Slight warming aloft should again support another round
of low to even mid 90s east today and 80s to near 90 west where the
ground is drier.

Expect any lingering convection to fade with loss of heating under
stronger ridging aloft this evening with another round of fog
possible espcly where earlier rainfall occurred. Otrw clear to
partly cloudy and muggy with lows 65-70 mountains and only in the
low mid 70s east.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 430 am edt Saturday...

not a lot of change with upper level low pressure progged to track
along the nc outer banks through late Sunday, then offshore Sunday
night. This in combination with mid level ridging over the area
looks to make for a mainly dry Sunday with isolated orographic
driven storms, espcly where removed from subsidence to the west of
the upper system. Will be a bit hotter under the ridging and weak
downsloping, which will promote highs well into the 90s east and
around 90 outside of elevation west. Still should be below heat
advisory levels but around 100 or so looks possible.

Again should see any lingering storms fade with loss of heating
Sunday evening with more spotty nature fog stratus around. Lows
mostly in the 60s to around 70.

Ridging remains in place on Monday ahead of another upstream trough
in the midwest. This should promote another hot and humid day under
a bit more southwest trajectory aloft. This despite lack of much
forcing looks to help unzip convection espcly mountains as somewhat
deeper moisture returns. Otrw think coverage again more isolated
outside of the ridges so running with the higher chance pops across
the west. Highs similar to Sunday overall with mostly low mid 90s
east to 85-90 west.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm edt Friday...

a weak upper level low will drift over the southern chesapeake bay
on Tuesday and depart toward CAPE cod by Wednesday. Meanwhile, a
more vigorous upper level trough will dig southeastward from canada
to push a potent cold front from the northern plains toward the ohio
river valley. With no discernible changes expected in the air mass,
hot and humid conditions will continue with a daily threat of
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Confidence is increasing for more widespread convection during
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the cold front approaches.

This front will reach the appalachian mountains by Wednesday night
and cross over the mid atlantic during Thursday. By Friday, the
models disagree on how far south this cold front will track before
possibly stalling over north carolina. The ECMWF shows a more potent
surface high behind the cold front than the GFS and is thus more
progressive with drier air arriving from the north.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 640 am edt Saturday...

fog remains patchy and mainly across a few of the valleys and
eastern outlying areas. This likely to result in periods of
sub-vfr through mid morning before low conditions fade. May also
have to watch lingering showers pushing up from the south that
could affect kdan. However since expecting most of this coverage
to dissipate after sunrise, wont include mention pending release

Low clouds fog should again break for scattered-broken cumulus
this afternoon but still overallVFR. Latest short term models
do suggest perhaps more widely scattered afternoon convection
across the south east with some of this affecting kdan and
perhaps klyh. Thus including a vcts mention at kdan since
confidence higher in seeing at least an isolated shra tsra pass
nearby this afternoon. Elsewhere will leave out any convective
mention with any CIGS on the order of 4-6k feet outside of

Expect any lingering showers to wash out early this evening
leaving another round of spotty fog stratus espcly where earlier
rain occurred. Still appears that both klwb kbcb could see a
period of ifr or worse late tonight with some MVFR level fog
possible at both klyh kdan, similar to this morning.

Otrw expecting winds east of the blue ridge to be more east to
southeast under 5 kts, with south to southwest winds over the
west at similar speeds.

Extended aviation discussion
Moisture increases Sunday into Tuesday with a surface boundary
becoming parked across the region. Look for increasing chance of
showers storms during this time period with more periods of
sub-vfr conditions in addition to the overnight morning fog. An
approaching cold front looks to bring a more widespread threat
for showers and storms including sub-vfr Wednesday afternoon.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Jh
near term... Jh
short term... Jh
long term... Pw
aviation... Al AMS jh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA27 mi89 minN 010.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROA

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmNE3E85SE6SE9E11E6E9SE6E5SE4CalmE4CalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago33SE55S6SE85E8E9E13SE8E4CalmCalmW5E4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoW7W9NW10NW11W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.