Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Shore, VA
May 5, 2024 4:36 AM EDT (08:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:46 AM Moonset 4:35 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 050800 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 400 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough of low pressure is slowly moving across the Mid-Atlantic region, resulting in mostly cloudy skies, areas of rain and rain showers, and a few thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, with the heaviest occuring along and east of the Blue Ridge. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible through much of the upcoming week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1. Widespread rain east of the Blue Ridge this morning.
2. Cool easterly wind this morning transitions to a warmer southerly wind this afternoon.
3. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Upper level trough is slowly working its way across the forecast area. Best lift for widespread rain will occur along and east of the Blue Ridge this morning...with opportunity for a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain before the church bells ring.
Dynamic support becomes more diffuse this afternoon, so think we transition from stratiform rain to a more showery environment, rainfall amounts becoming more variable. Breaks in the cloud cover should lead to warmer temperatures,increasing CAPE, and a better opportunity for a rumble of thunder. The easterly low level flow should transition to more of a southerly flow this afternoon, so look for temperatures to test 70 degrees this afternoon.
Tonight, showers will wane, but lingering moisture will maintain a good bit of cloud cover along with patchy fog. Most of the fog that we have been experiencing is coming from the low level stratus coming in contact with the ground. So in this situation, the higher elevations have the greater opportunity for fog where the cloud base intersects the terrain.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Warming trend in temperatures for beginning of the week.
2. Chances for showers and storms each day.
Rain and thunderstorm chances continue each day through this short term period of the forecast as a front stalls to the north and west of the area. Late Monday, a 500mb shortwave rides over the ridge and provides some additional upper forcing for ascent over the area, which could result in some showers and storms. The surface front lifts northward Tuesday, putting the area in a broad warm sector, with the surface low still over the north central US, bringing in warmer air and more moisture.
With the front moving farther from the area early Tuesday, expecting more breaks in the clouds than on Monday, and so daytime heating will increase the instability over the area later in the day, and will lead to showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday afternoon.
Weak ridging at 500mb will spread over the southeast US and Mid Atlantic into the beginning of the work week. Increasing heights will lead to a warming trend in temperatures through Tuesday, with increasing positive 850mb temperatures anomalies through the middle of the work week. High temperatures will gradually increase from the low 70s to upper 70s in the west, near 80 to mid 80s in the east, through Tuesday. Lows will be mild, in the mid to upper 50s in the west and low 60s in the east.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Showers and storms possible each day, highest probability Thursday.
2. Warming temperatures through Wednesday, cooler for the weekend.
Mid level ridging builds back in over the southeast and Mid Atlantic in response to a trough deepening over the central US. This keeps broad southwesterly flow at mid levels over the area into the second half of the work week, but slowly flattening and becoming more zonal into the weekend, as the main 500mb low tracks across southern Canada. A surface low pressure system moves eastward across the Great Lakes by Thursday, with a cold front extending south and another boundary extending west-east across the upper Mid Atlantic. With this increased large scale forcing, probabilities for thunderstorms are highest on Thursday. Deterministic long range models show some differences in the timing of the actual frontal passage, some bringing it through the area late Thursday and others not until Friday, which brings some uncertainty into duration of precipitation with the front.
The warming trend in temperatures will continue through the middle of the work week. Rain and cloud cover will keep Thursday a couple degrees cooler as well, but not quite as cool as the weekend, as a cooler and drier airmass settles into the area behind the front.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
LIFR cigs and IFR/LIFR vsbys expected through this morning.
Improvement expected this afternoon as surface winds transition from easterly to southerly. Widespread rain ongoing east of the Blue Ridge will transition to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Mean wind aloft is from the SSW, so expect storm cell movement this afternoon to be from SW-NE. Probability for thunderstorms is too low to add to any of the TAFS attm.
Lingering moisture tonight will result in areas of stratus and fog, so look for cigs to lower again tonight following any improvement we get this afternoon.
Confidence above average for today, and below average for tonight. Not sure how widespread the fog and stratus will be tonight.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the upcoming week.
Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA Monday through Thursday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times.
Winds Monday through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 400 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough of low pressure is slowly moving across the Mid-Atlantic region, resulting in mostly cloudy skies, areas of rain and rain showers, and a few thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, with the heaviest occuring along and east of the Blue Ridge. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible through much of the upcoming week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1. Widespread rain east of the Blue Ridge this morning.
2. Cool easterly wind this morning transitions to a warmer southerly wind this afternoon.
3. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Upper level trough is slowly working its way across the forecast area. Best lift for widespread rain will occur along and east of the Blue Ridge this morning...with opportunity for a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain before the church bells ring.
Dynamic support becomes more diffuse this afternoon, so think we transition from stratiform rain to a more showery environment, rainfall amounts becoming more variable. Breaks in the cloud cover should lead to warmer temperatures,increasing CAPE, and a better opportunity for a rumble of thunder. The easterly low level flow should transition to more of a southerly flow this afternoon, so look for temperatures to test 70 degrees this afternoon.
Tonight, showers will wane, but lingering moisture will maintain a good bit of cloud cover along with patchy fog. Most of the fog that we have been experiencing is coming from the low level stratus coming in contact with the ground. So in this situation, the higher elevations have the greater opportunity for fog where the cloud base intersects the terrain.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Warming trend in temperatures for beginning of the week.
2. Chances for showers and storms each day.
Rain and thunderstorm chances continue each day through this short term period of the forecast as a front stalls to the north and west of the area. Late Monday, a 500mb shortwave rides over the ridge and provides some additional upper forcing for ascent over the area, which could result in some showers and storms. The surface front lifts northward Tuesday, putting the area in a broad warm sector, with the surface low still over the north central US, bringing in warmer air and more moisture.
With the front moving farther from the area early Tuesday, expecting more breaks in the clouds than on Monday, and so daytime heating will increase the instability over the area later in the day, and will lead to showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday afternoon.
Weak ridging at 500mb will spread over the southeast US and Mid Atlantic into the beginning of the work week. Increasing heights will lead to a warming trend in temperatures through Tuesday, with increasing positive 850mb temperatures anomalies through the middle of the work week. High temperatures will gradually increase from the low 70s to upper 70s in the west, near 80 to mid 80s in the east, through Tuesday. Lows will be mild, in the mid to upper 50s in the west and low 60s in the east.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Showers and storms possible each day, highest probability Thursday.
2. Warming temperatures through Wednesday, cooler for the weekend.
Mid level ridging builds back in over the southeast and Mid Atlantic in response to a trough deepening over the central US. This keeps broad southwesterly flow at mid levels over the area into the second half of the work week, but slowly flattening and becoming more zonal into the weekend, as the main 500mb low tracks across southern Canada. A surface low pressure system moves eastward across the Great Lakes by Thursday, with a cold front extending south and another boundary extending west-east across the upper Mid Atlantic. With this increased large scale forcing, probabilities for thunderstorms are highest on Thursday. Deterministic long range models show some differences in the timing of the actual frontal passage, some bringing it through the area late Thursday and others not until Friday, which brings some uncertainty into duration of precipitation with the front.
The warming trend in temperatures will continue through the middle of the work week. Rain and cloud cover will keep Thursday a couple degrees cooler as well, but not quite as cool as the weekend, as a cooler and drier airmass settles into the area behind the front.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
LIFR cigs and IFR/LIFR vsbys expected through this morning.
Improvement expected this afternoon as surface winds transition from easterly to southerly. Widespread rain ongoing east of the Blue Ridge will transition to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Mean wind aloft is from the SSW, so expect storm cell movement this afternoon to be from SW-NE. Probability for thunderstorms is too low to add to any of the TAFS attm.
Lingering moisture tonight will result in areas of stratus and fog, so look for cigs to lower again tonight following any improvement we get this afternoon.
Confidence above average for today, and below average for tonight. Not sure how widespread the fog and stratus will be tonight.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the upcoming week.
Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA Monday through Thursday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times.
Winds Monday through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
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Blacksburg, VA,
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