Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kanab, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...A chaotic northern stream will keep a progressive pattern across the region through the short term and into the long term forecast period. Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates several shortwave troughs embedded in northwesterly flow from the Gulf of Alaska across the PACNW/northern Intermountain Region.

The associated cold front will continue to cross northern Utah early this morning. Currently this front is near the Salt Lake City area...and will shift into central Utah by early Monday afternoon. This front will lift north Tuesday as southwest flow deepens ahead of the next shortwave trough crossing the PACNW.

RADAR trends this morning show light showers across northern Utah, heaviest near the Idaho/Utah border. While the threat of showers across northern Utah will end with the passage of the shortwave trough and weak subsidence by late morning, near and ahead of the cold front...expect weak high-based convection this afternoon and evening. This weak convection is most likely across central and southern Utah...and would bring the threat of gusty and erratic microburst winds.

Another round of weak high-based convection may occur along the weakening/shifting front Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of central and perhaps northern Utah. Again, the main concern would be gusty and erratic microburst winds.

Temperatures will largely remain near to slightly above normal through the short term forecast period.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday)...Zonal flow aloft persists bringing calm and benign conditions to the forecast area through Wednesday. On Wednesday, a weak shortwave is progged to slide east across northern Utah. The trough is expected to deepen somewhat as it traverses across northern Utah with ample moisture resulting in scattered valley rain showers and scattered snow showers at higher elevations across northeastern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
This flow pattern will also result in a gradual warming trend through Saturday with winds clocking to southwesterly. This will yield valley temperatures ranging from 70-80 degrees with lower Washington county likely seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Come Thursday evening, model consensus remains favorable for a digging upper trough to push in along the eastern Pacific. This trough is expected to be quite diffluent aloft with upper level flow clocking to southwesterly Thursday evening across southern Utah. South-southwesterly flow will become more established across the entirety of the forecast area Friday evening as the trough nudges closer. This pattern will be favorable for scattered rain showers across the majority of our valleys and snow showers at higher elevations as more favorable moisture is advected over the area. As of now, accumulations are not expected to be impactful in nature.

Guidance remains quite sporadic with the troughs positioning and northern/southern extent as it moves inland. Regardless, guidance appears favorable across the board for a windy weekend with gusts greater than 20mph across southern Utah materializing Thursday evening. Gusts will then make their way north Friday evening reaching around 20-30mph across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming with gusts across southern Utah increasing further, likely exceeding 35mph. Additionally, scattered showers will persist each day from Thursday on into the weekend across northern Utah as the pattern remains generally unchanged.

AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Brief bouts of gusty winds around 20kts out of the west- northwest are possible through around 11-12z before calming down during the day. Light vicinity showers are possible near the terminal around 10-13z. Winds will once again increase out of the north-northwest in the afternoon hours before becoming light and variable in the evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Winds will gradually clock to west-northwest across all sites throughout the morning as a weak frontal boundary moves across the area. Cloud cover across all sites will continue to erode throughout the day.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.