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FXUS65 KSLC 101020 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 320 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A general northwest flow will reside across the region through early in the week. A couple of brush by systems will impact areas near the Idaho border through Monday. A low pressure system will cross the Great Basin midweek, bringing little in the way of precipitation, but helping to keep strong inversions from developing across the region.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...Mid level ridging currently centered just off the California coast is maintaining a deep layer northwest flow aloft downstream across the forecast area.
Low level warm advection overnight will allow daytime temperatures across most northern and western valleys to trend 5-10 degrees warmer today than what was observed Saturday, including much of the Wasatch Front. The exceptions will be more sheltered locations such as the Cache and Bear River Valleys, as well as northwest Utah across the Salt Flats where mixing will likely prove to be much more limited owing to stubborn cold pools.

A shortwave trough and associated upper jet currently moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest coast will dig southeast today, brushing by northern Utah/southwest Wyoming this evening into tonight. Although the better moisture advection and upper dynamics will remain north of the area, a chance of light snow exists across the higher terrain mainly north of I-80 late this afternoon and evening with minimal accumulation. A second wave late Sunday into Monday will maintain a chance of light snow north of I-80, with any accumulation again remaining minimal. This series of waves and associated cloud cover should keep strong inversions from developing, with temperatures remaining a little above climo across most locations Monday. Again the exceptions will be more sheltered areas where shallow cold air may remain entrenched such as the Cache Valley.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Tuesday)...A shortwave impulse will move into the forecast region on Tuesday, with guidance continuing to lean towards a scenario in which the shortwave subsequently becomes cutoff and gradually shifts southeastward through the remainder of the work week. With limited moisture and meager overall synoptic forcing, will only see some low end precipitation chances (~10-20%)
for high terrain Tuesday into early Wednesday when the best juxtaposition of ingredients appears to manifest. With 700mb temperatures associated with the system around -3C to -7C, only a slight cooldown to near climatological normal expected for Tuesday's highs. Thereafter through the rest of the work week, will see a gradual warmup across southern Utah, while temperatures elsewhere across the forecast region remain more or less steady state.

Forecast uncertainty increases somewhat moving into the weekend due to questions on just how quick the cutoff shortwave can depart the region, and if any other weak impulse can try and brush by as it does. That said, the general consensus amongst guidance sources is that ridging is most likely the dominant influence during the weekend, with dry weather and near to slightly above normal temperatures largely persisting as a result.

AVIATION
KSLC...Moisture advecting through to result in some SCT to BKN VFR cloud cover between ~6-12 kft through the early afternoon, and 20+ kft through much of the TAF period. Southerly winds expected to persist into Sunday afternoon, with a somewhat delayed shift to northwest possible between 21Z-00Z. If it shifts, subsequent shift back to south expected thereafter between 02Z-05Z.
Magnitudes anticipated to remain light throughout, generally less than 10 kts.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A grazing system will result in moisture advecting through the region, resulting in SCT to BKN mid/high VFR cloud cover at area terminals. Winds expected to remain fairly light and follow somewhat typical diurnal directional patterns, though periods of light variability will be likely at many terminals. Biggest potential impact through TAF period will be BR/FG or low stratus potential at LGU (and to a lesser extent HCR)
overnight, with gradual clearing after sunrise.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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