Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kanab, UT
May 16, 2024 5:09 AM MDT (11:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 1:14 PM Moonset 2:03 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 161039 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 439 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry conditions today will be followed by a mainly dry cold front crossing the region Friday, which will be accompanied by gusty post-frontal winds across northern Utah.
Unsettled weather is expected this weekend into early next week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...The large-scale pattern this morning shows Utah under a northerly flow aloft while the trough that impacted the area yesterday has now dropped into Arizona.
Upstream, high pressure is building off the West Coast. Drier, warmer, and more stable conditions can be expected across Utah today as a result.
A shortwave trough will graze northern Utah tomorrow. This will push a relatively shallow cold front into northern through at least central Utah tomorrow afternoon and evening. This cold front will be accompanied by gusty winds, strongest along the Idaho border and across northwest Utah and southwest Wyoming. Additionally, some CAMS are hinting at some isolated, weak high-based convection near the boundary mainly across central Utah, with greatest threat being gusty microburst winds.
With the trough exiting the area and the next upstream trough moving down the BritCol coast on Saturday, the boundary will gradually lift back northward as a warm front. Models are increasingly latching on to the idea that isolated to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary. This activity could continue through the night on Saturday.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Big picture up front, the most likely scenario supported by model guidance will feature a mean trough developing over the West from Sunday forward. With the development of a trough being the most likely scenario, Utah and southwest Wyoming will see a decreasing temperature trend as well as potential for precipitation. At this point in time there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the phase and amplitude of this trough, which will also affect how much cooling we see and exactly where precipitation will fall. At this current time, the best chances for temperatures falling below normal alongside a round of precipitation is confined to the northern half of the forecast area. Ensemble guidance from the EPS and GEFS both show another trough diving in from the PacNW region during the second half of the week, which would keep cooler, unsettled weather in the forecast.
Diving into a few of the details now of the more likely (~55% probability) scenario...
By Sunday afternoon, the aforementioned trough is anticipated to begin pushing into northern Utah. It is likely that winds will remain elevated ahead of the associated cold frontal boundary during the afternoon hours. Moisture lingering over the area will also be forced along the surface front, however, the lack of deep layer moisture will make it difficult to see any impactful rainfall. At this point in time, there is a low (15-20%) chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming on Sunday afternoon. It is unclear how quickly this front will progress into the region and how far south it will progress, as models still indicate 8-10 degrees of temperature spread in the most likely temperatures on the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley areas.
By Monday evening, there is a nearly 50/50 split on how much this trough will actually deepen over the West. On one hand, about 50% of members support below average mid-level heights over Utah (indicating a deeper trough) which would also support a farther southward progression of the associated cold front... meaning likely cooler temperatures in the north and at least some cooling to below average in the south (still ~7 degrees in spread for MaxT at CDC).
Another 25% of ensemble support a shallow trough that ejects into the Northern Plains, which would effectively allow warmer return flow to spread over Utah Monday into Tuesday. The remaining 25% of ensembles favor somewhere in between, where southern Utah does not see much cooling, but northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming sees continued below average temperatures. From a precipitation perspective, there is a 75% chance that southern Utah will not see much in the way of precipitation while the northern half of the area sees at least scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Uncertainty continues through the middle of the week as models indicate yet another trough digging into the region. Biggest point moving forward is that there is fairly high confidence in an active weather pattern remaining in place over the West through the upcoming week, but just how far south this active jet stream progresses is what we have to keep an eye on moving forward.
AVIATION
KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Light southerly winds will prevail through the mid-to-late morning, transitioning to a northerly flow between 17-18Z.
Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions are expected across the area today under largely clear skies. Afternoon cumulus buildups are anticipated across the high terrain of central and eastern Utah, however, bases will remain at, or above, 9kft AGL.
Otherwise, light terrain driven flows are expected across a majority of terminals.
FIRE WEATHER
High pressure will usher in warm and dry conditions today. A trough will then graze northern Utah tomorrow. This will push a cold front through at least northern and central Utah, and will be accompanied by gusty winds. This front will be mostly dry, but isolated high-based showers will be possible near the boundary, especially across central Utah. This boundary will gradually lift back to the north through the day on Saturday, accompanied by isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then continue into early next week as the next trough carves into the area.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 439 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry conditions today will be followed by a mainly dry cold front crossing the region Friday, which will be accompanied by gusty post-frontal winds across northern Utah.
Unsettled weather is expected this weekend into early next week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...The large-scale pattern this morning shows Utah under a northerly flow aloft while the trough that impacted the area yesterday has now dropped into Arizona.
Upstream, high pressure is building off the West Coast. Drier, warmer, and more stable conditions can be expected across Utah today as a result.
A shortwave trough will graze northern Utah tomorrow. This will push a relatively shallow cold front into northern through at least central Utah tomorrow afternoon and evening. This cold front will be accompanied by gusty winds, strongest along the Idaho border and across northwest Utah and southwest Wyoming. Additionally, some CAMS are hinting at some isolated, weak high-based convection near the boundary mainly across central Utah, with greatest threat being gusty microburst winds.
With the trough exiting the area and the next upstream trough moving down the BritCol coast on Saturday, the boundary will gradually lift back northward as a warm front. Models are increasingly latching on to the idea that isolated to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary. This activity could continue through the night on Saturday.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Big picture up front, the most likely scenario supported by model guidance will feature a mean trough developing over the West from Sunday forward. With the development of a trough being the most likely scenario, Utah and southwest Wyoming will see a decreasing temperature trend as well as potential for precipitation. At this point in time there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the phase and amplitude of this trough, which will also affect how much cooling we see and exactly where precipitation will fall. At this current time, the best chances for temperatures falling below normal alongside a round of precipitation is confined to the northern half of the forecast area. Ensemble guidance from the EPS and GEFS both show another trough diving in from the PacNW region during the second half of the week, which would keep cooler, unsettled weather in the forecast.
Diving into a few of the details now of the more likely (~55% probability) scenario...
By Sunday afternoon, the aforementioned trough is anticipated to begin pushing into northern Utah. It is likely that winds will remain elevated ahead of the associated cold frontal boundary during the afternoon hours. Moisture lingering over the area will also be forced along the surface front, however, the lack of deep layer moisture will make it difficult to see any impactful rainfall. At this point in time, there is a low (15-20%) chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming on Sunday afternoon. It is unclear how quickly this front will progress into the region and how far south it will progress, as models still indicate 8-10 degrees of temperature spread in the most likely temperatures on the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley areas.
By Monday evening, there is a nearly 50/50 split on how much this trough will actually deepen over the West. On one hand, about 50% of members support below average mid-level heights over Utah (indicating a deeper trough) which would also support a farther southward progression of the associated cold front... meaning likely cooler temperatures in the north and at least some cooling to below average in the south (still ~7 degrees in spread for MaxT at CDC).
Another 25% of ensemble support a shallow trough that ejects into the Northern Plains, which would effectively allow warmer return flow to spread over Utah Monday into Tuesday. The remaining 25% of ensembles favor somewhere in between, where southern Utah does not see much cooling, but northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming sees continued below average temperatures. From a precipitation perspective, there is a 75% chance that southern Utah will not see much in the way of precipitation while the northern half of the area sees at least scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Uncertainty continues through the middle of the week as models indicate yet another trough digging into the region. Biggest point moving forward is that there is fairly high confidence in an active weather pattern remaining in place over the West through the upcoming week, but just how far south this active jet stream progresses is what we have to keep an eye on moving forward.
AVIATION
KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Light southerly winds will prevail through the mid-to-late morning, transitioning to a northerly flow between 17-18Z.
Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions are expected across the area today under largely clear skies. Afternoon cumulus buildups are anticipated across the high terrain of central and eastern Utah, however, bases will remain at, or above, 9kft AGL.
Otherwise, light terrain driven flows are expected across a majority of terminals.
FIRE WEATHER
High pressure will usher in warm and dry conditions today. A trough will then graze northern Utah tomorrow. This will push a cold front through at least northern and central Utah, and will be accompanied by gusty winds. This front will be mostly dry, but isolated high-based showers will be possible near the boundary, especially across central Utah. This boundary will gradually lift back to the north through the day on Saturday, accompanied by isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then continue into early next week as the next trough carves into the area.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KKNB KANAB MUNI,UT | 18 sm | 19 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 36°F | 87% | 30.04 |
Cedar City, UT,
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