Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pulaski, VA
May 4, 2024 8:43 AM EDT (12:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:24 AM Moonset 3:28 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KRNK 040916 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 516 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough of low pressure will move across the Mid- Atlantic Region this weekend resulting in mostly cloudy skies, widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, ranging from a quarter of an inch, to as much as one inch. Temperatures will be lower today compared to Friday, winds from an easterly direction.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Cool easterly wind today. Below normal high temperatures.
2. Widespread light to moderate showers through tonight with potential for 0.25 to 1.00 of rain. Slight chance thunderstorms.
Cloudy skies observed across the entire forecast area this morning along with patchy light rain and rain showers. This will generally be the theme through tonight as lift associated with an upper level trough persists across the region. Daytime heating may provide enough CAPE to produce a few thunderstorms, but not expecting anything severe per cool easterly wind flow within the boundary layer. Models are hit and miss on the heavier QPF, advertising a large deviation in rainfall amounts, the SREF Plumes for many of our climate stations ranging from a quarter of an inch to as much as 1.5 inches through 8AM Sunday.
The spread in the model data reflects the showery nature of the precip, but do think we partake in at least a quarter inch of much needed rain over the next 24 hours. Anything above that is a bonus.
Wind flow today and tonight will be out of the east. This combined with mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures muted today, down 15 degrees compared to Friday.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Wedge of cool/damp air begins to erode slowly on Sunday as a strong short wave approaches from the southwest.
2) Warmer Monday with increasing chances for thunderstorms,
The wedge of much cooler air that spreads into the region early Saturday will begin to erode slowly by Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will moderate back into the 70s for most areas except perhaps the far northeastern/northern portions of the CWA Short wave ridging ahead of a vigorous short wave lifting northeast from the MidSouth will also help to warm conditions across the region by Sunday afternoon.
Spotty, mostly light precipitation can be expected again Sunday, especially during the morning. By afternoon, enough instability should be present across most of the CWA for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially along/west of I-77. This disturbance and increasing amplitude of the upper flow/namely ridging in the eastern U.S. will help to lift the backdoor front/baroclinic zone back north toward the PA/MD/WV line for the first part of next week. Consequently, precipitation should become a bit more spotty and less organized going into Tuesday.
Cool temperatures Sunday mostly in the 60s to lower 70s will moderate back into the 70s and 80s by Tuesday as heights rise aloft and the baroclinic zone lifts back north. This will in turn allow for more sunshine with breaks in the clouds more prevalent than during the Sun-Mon time frame.
During the period of this forecast, severe weather is not expected with weak dynamics and increased ridging aloft.
Rainfall amounts in the Sun-Tue time frame should average around 1/2 inch, which given the antecedent dry conditions is not going to cause any real flooding issues at this time.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Low to Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 500 AM EDT Saturday...
A rather active weather period is expected during this time frame. To begin the period, look for quite warm conditions as the upper flow amplifies in response to deep troughing in the western/central U.S. An initial short wave will lift north of the area by Tuesday, leaving behind a summerlike air mass over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S. 850mb temperatures will reach their warmest levels of the year so far with a pocket of +20C air developing across the Shenandoah and Roanoke Valleys for Wednesday into Thursday. The baroclinic/frontal zone will lift north of the area Tuesday as this ridging pattern evolves. This will shunt the main storm track to our northwest with any significant convection remaining mainly to our west and north through Wednesday
By Thursday, steady progressing of the central U.S. trough in combination with it phasing with a northern stream short wave will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Convective parameters suggest that adequate dynamics and moisture will be present for strong thunderstorms and a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Thursday. A strong cold front advancing into the region from the northwest will also bring good forcing. The limiting factor for a more significant threat of severe thunderstorms is very warm air aloft yielding weak lapse rates. The general pattern Thursday was also discussed with SPC. Please reference their Day4-8 discussion for further details on the potential severe weather threat for Thursday, which at this point is uncertain but certainly non- zero.
Substantially cooler air spreads into the region behind the cold front for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will be well into the 80s ahead of the front Wednesday and Thursday, cooling to just the 60s for Friday into the weekend. Minimum temperatures will dip back into the 30s and 40s by the weekend as well. Breezy conditions will add a definite chill to the weekend weather.
Finally, it won't necessarily be dry going into the weekend as several models suggest that additional short waves could ride along the baroclinic zone, located just to our south at this point, and keep some threat of rain in our forecast going into the weekend.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Moderate to High Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...
Cloud bases are lowering from the east. A cool easterly wind off the Atlantic Ocean will bring marine air as far west as the Blue Ridge resulting in a low IFR Cig today along with some partial ridge obscurations. Patchy light rain this morning will become more showery in nature during the day with light to moderate showers becoming widespread for the afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm threat appears too low to include in the TAFs attm but do think some of the more robust convective cells will contain lightning.
The easterly wind over the area is shallow, observed from the surface up to about 3000 feet AGL. Above 3000 feet winds are out of the southwest...the winds above 3Kft providing the steering current for any deep convection...storm cell movement from SW- NE.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
SHRA/TSRA with periods of DZ, BR, and MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions continue after 18Z Sunday. More diurnally driven -SHRA/TSRA are expected Monday through Wednesday. This will bring periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be SSW and gusty at times.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 516 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough of low pressure will move across the Mid- Atlantic Region this weekend resulting in mostly cloudy skies, widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, ranging from a quarter of an inch, to as much as one inch. Temperatures will be lower today compared to Friday, winds from an easterly direction.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Cool easterly wind today. Below normal high temperatures.
2. Widespread light to moderate showers through tonight with potential for 0.25 to 1.00 of rain. Slight chance thunderstorms.
Cloudy skies observed across the entire forecast area this morning along with patchy light rain and rain showers. This will generally be the theme through tonight as lift associated with an upper level trough persists across the region. Daytime heating may provide enough CAPE to produce a few thunderstorms, but not expecting anything severe per cool easterly wind flow within the boundary layer. Models are hit and miss on the heavier QPF, advertising a large deviation in rainfall amounts, the SREF Plumes for many of our climate stations ranging from a quarter of an inch to as much as 1.5 inches through 8AM Sunday.
The spread in the model data reflects the showery nature of the precip, but do think we partake in at least a quarter inch of much needed rain over the next 24 hours. Anything above that is a bonus.
Wind flow today and tonight will be out of the east. This combined with mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures muted today, down 15 degrees compared to Friday.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Wedge of cool/damp air begins to erode slowly on Sunday as a strong short wave approaches from the southwest.
2) Warmer Monday with increasing chances for thunderstorms,
The wedge of much cooler air that spreads into the region early Saturday will begin to erode slowly by Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will moderate back into the 70s for most areas except perhaps the far northeastern/northern portions of the CWA Short wave ridging ahead of a vigorous short wave lifting northeast from the MidSouth will also help to warm conditions across the region by Sunday afternoon.
Spotty, mostly light precipitation can be expected again Sunday, especially during the morning. By afternoon, enough instability should be present across most of the CWA for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially along/west of I-77. This disturbance and increasing amplitude of the upper flow/namely ridging in the eastern U.S. will help to lift the backdoor front/baroclinic zone back north toward the PA/MD/WV line for the first part of next week. Consequently, precipitation should become a bit more spotty and less organized going into Tuesday.
Cool temperatures Sunday mostly in the 60s to lower 70s will moderate back into the 70s and 80s by Tuesday as heights rise aloft and the baroclinic zone lifts back north. This will in turn allow for more sunshine with breaks in the clouds more prevalent than during the Sun-Mon time frame.
During the period of this forecast, severe weather is not expected with weak dynamics and increased ridging aloft.
Rainfall amounts in the Sun-Tue time frame should average around 1/2 inch, which given the antecedent dry conditions is not going to cause any real flooding issues at this time.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Low to Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 500 AM EDT Saturday...
A rather active weather period is expected during this time frame. To begin the period, look for quite warm conditions as the upper flow amplifies in response to deep troughing in the western/central U.S. An initial short wave will lift north of the area by Tuesday, leaving behind a summerlike air mass over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S. 850mb temperatures will reach their warmest levels of the year so far with a pocket of +20C air developing across the Shenandoah and Roanoke Valleys for Wednesday into Thursday. The baroclinic/frontal zone will lift north of the area Tuesday as this ridging pattern evolves. This will shunt the main storm track to our northwest with any significant convection remaining mainly to our west and north through Wednesday
By Thursday, steady progressing of the central U.S. trough in combination with it phasing with a northern stream short wave will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Convective parameters suggest that adequate dynamics and moisture will be present for strong thunderstorms and a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Thursday. A strong cold front advancing into the region from the northwest will also bring good forcing. The limiting factor for a more significant threat of severe thunderstorms is very warm air aloft yielding weak lapse rates. The general pattern Thursday was also discussed with SPC. Please reference their Day4-8 discussion for further details on the potential severe weather threat for Thursday, which at this point is uncertain but certainly non- zero.
Substantially cooler air spreads into the region behind the cold front for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will be well into the 80s ahead of the front Wednesday and Thursday, cooling to just the 60s for Friday into the weekend. Minimum temperatures will dip back into the 30s and 40s by the weekend as well. Breezy conditions will add a definite chill to the weekend weather.
Finally, it won't necessarily be dry going into the weekend as several models suggest that additional short waves could ride along the baroclinic zone, located just to our south at this point, and keep some threat of rain in our forecast going into the weekend.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Moderate to High Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...
Cloud bases are lowering from the east. A cool easterly wind off the Atlantic Ocean will bring marine air as far west as the Blue Ridge resulting in a low IFR Cig today along with some partial ridge obscurations. Patchy light rain this morning will become more showery in nature during the day with light to moderate showers becoming widespread for the afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm threat appears too low to include in the TAFs attm but do think some of the more robust convective cells will contain lightning.
The easterly wind over the area is shallow, observed from the surface up to about 3000 feet AGL. Above 3000 feet winds are out of the southwest...the winds above 3Kft providing the steering current for any deep convection...storm cell movement from SW- NE.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
SHRA/TSRA with periods of DZ, BR, and MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions continue after 18Z Sunday. More diurnally driven -SHRA/TSRA are expected Monday through Wednesday. This will bring periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be SSW and gusty at times.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPSK NEW RIVER VALLEY,VA | 11 sm | 28 min | E 07 | 3 sm | Overcast | Mist | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 30.12 |
Blacksburg, VA,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE