Monday, August19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Pulaski, VA

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:10PM Monday August 19, 2019 5:25 PM EDT (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 9:19AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pulaski, VA
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location: 37.18, -80.88     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 191951
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
351 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

High pressure will remain over the region tonight into Tuesday
resulting in a continuation of the hot and humid weather. A cold
front approaches by the middle of the week bringing increasing
chances of showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday. This front
should finally work southeast through the area by the weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 256 pm edt Monday...

the bermuda high pressure will remain in the atlantic ocean tonight
into Tuesday. The very hot and humid airmass will continue with
scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Shortwave energy aloft
will combined with very high instability, differential heating and
surface convergence to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon into tonight. SPC mesoscale analysis at 18z showed
sfc based capes around 1 to 2k and sb LI around minus 4 to minus 5.

Spc day one convective outlook has expanded south into eastern
portions of the forecast area. Isolated pulse severe thunderstorms
are possible with damaging winds,hail and heavy rains. The
atmosphere may be supportive of microbursts. With pwats around 1.3
inch and slow mean flow, locally heavy rains are possible. The
namnest, hiresw-arw-east and hrrr indicated the best chance for
convection along the southern blue ridge.

Convection will fade with loss of heating and in the wake of the
passing wave aloft this evening into tonight. A few showers may
linger longer in the east. Areas of fog and low clouds will form
late tonight into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the upper 50s in the deeper mountains valleys to around
70 degrees in the piedmont.

The hot and humid weather pattern will continue Tuesday with
numerous subtle shortwaves moving across the appalachians. Upper
shortwaves will combine with low level instability, orographic
effects,convergence and surface boundaries to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The slowly approaching cold frontal
boundary off to the northwest may enhance the convective
environment. The SPC day 2 convective outlook indicated marginal
severe thunderstorms are possible in the west. Outflow boundary
interactions and clustering of cells may create pulse severe
thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Also anticipate some heavy downpours and potential localized
hydro issues will remain a concern in the moist environment.

High temperatures Tuesday will vary from the lower 80s in the
mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. Heat index in the
piedmont will be near the century mark Tuesday afternoon.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

the synoptic pattern changes little from Tuesday into Wednesday
with numerous weak and subtle short waves moving across the
appalachians across the top of a broad subtropical ridge
anchored across much of the southern u.S. Meanwhile, a bermuda
high remains parked offshore. Hot and humid conditions will
continue through midweek. These hot humid conditions will fuel
ample instability for a continuation of largely pulse drive
thunderstorms with diurnal heating, thus favoring mid-afternoon
through the early evening hours. As we near the end of this
period, a weak west-east oriented frontal boundary will begin to
slowly approach from the north. This will likely enhance the
areal coverage and perhaps the intensity of storms during the
later half of the week. Thus isolated severe storms will be
possible, but most are expected to be non-severe given the weak
dynamics aloft. Some heavy downpours and potential localized
flooding issues may begin to develop after several days of this
pattern, but overall rainfall recently has been spotty and
evaporation of soil moisture has been high in the hot
temperatures and lack of general rainfall in recent weeks. Most
areas could really use a good soaking. Grass is dried up and
brown in many areas around the forecast area. So, rain will be
welcome in most areas. However, any persistent and repetition of
storms in the same areas could result in localized flooding
concerns. At this point, Thursday looks to be the best day for
widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as the severe and
flood threat. Pops also reach into the likely range by Thursday.

With 850mb temperatures hovering in the +20c to +22c range
through the next several days, don't look for any cooling this
period with highs in the 80s west to 90s east and lows mostly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, except for the cooler decoupled
values at night. Dewpoints will remain close to 70 in many
areas, limiting the cooling at night for sure.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

a pattern change will slowly evolve into the weekend as an upper
trough centered across the great lakes continues to deepen and
help push a west-east oriented cold front slowly south through
the area. Models disagree on the speed with which the front will
drift south of the area enough to shut off precipitation
changes. At this point, that does not appear with strong enough
potential to remove pops from any forecast period within this
time frame. In fact, the weekend could be quite wet and
unsettled as the front slowly drifts southward through the area. This
front will eventually stall across the southeast by the weekend.

Given time of year and the overall lack of good upper-level
support to push the front south, have kept high chance to even
periods of likely pops across the southern two thirds of the
region into the weekend. It appears from the viewpoint of most
models that drying will be limited to northern areas, generally
near and north of the i-64 corridor.

Temperatures are expected to be a bit closer to normal as 850mb
temperatures drop back into the mid and upper teens and clouds
and precipitation remain abundant. Northern areas may eventually
end up being warmer during the daytime than southern areas by
the weekend, as clouds and precipitation will be more abundant
south east of the blue ridge. Nighttime low temperatures will
likely remain at or above normal during the period, especially
across southern areas.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
As of 142 pm edt Monday...

vfr conditions will prevail under scattered to broken cumulus
fields this afternoon into tonight. A weak disturbance aloft
will combine surface convergence and solar heating to generate
scattered MVFR ifr showers and thunderstorms. Storms that
develop in the mountains will move east into the foothill and
piedmont. High res models indicated that the best chance for a
thunderstorm will occur along the southern blue ridge this
afternoon into this evening. Convection will diminish or
dissipate with the loss of solar heating this evening into
tonight. Areas of fog will develop tonight into Tuesday morning.

Any TAF site which receives rain Monday afternoon has a good
chance to lower to ifr in fog overnight. Morning fog and low
clouds will lift by late morning.VFR conditions will prevail
Tuesday with scattered afternoon MVFR showers and thunderstorms
which will develop ahead of a cold front. Winds will be mainly
west to southwest at 5-15 kts this afternoon. Then winds will be
light and variable tonight into Tuesday.

Medium confidence on ceilings,visibilities and winds during the
taf period.

Extended aviation discussion
Increasing chances of showers thunderstorms Tuesday ahead of a
cold front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening with more
periods of sub-vfr conditions in addition to the overnight morning
fog. The approaching cold front looks to bring a more
widespread threat for showers and storms including sub-VFR into

Improving conditions with more in the way ofVFR will be
possible on Friday pending just how far south of the area the
front makes it. Drier weather is expected on Saturday.

As of 310 pm edt Saturday...

record daily maximum temps:
Monday 8 19:
roa: 98 1914
blf: 91 2007
dan 102 1988
lyh 98 1914
bcb 93 1988
Tuesday 8 20:
roa: 104 1983
blf: 92 1914
dan: 101 1925
lyh: 102 1983
bcb: 92 1983
Wednesday 8 21:
roa: 105 1983
blf: 94 1936
dan: 104 1983
lyh: 101 1983
bcb: 98 1983

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Jh kk
near term... Kk
short term... Rab
long term... Rab
aviation... Jh kk
climate... Ph

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dublin / New River Valley, VA11 mi51 minSW 310.00 miFair82°F64°F57%1020.3 hPa
Bluefield, Mercer County Airport, WV20 mi34 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F61°F48%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPSK

Wind History from PSK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW7SE5CalmW6CalmCalm------W5CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN4N3N4S5S5
1 day agoCalmW3S8NE3W5CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S3W5
2 days agoN5NW3W3E8CalmCalmCalmSW3S3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.