Pulaski, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pulaski, VA

April 14, 2024 11:54 PM EDT (03:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM
Moonrise 10:07 AM   Moonset 12:58 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pulaski, VA
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Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 150155 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 955 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will track across the Great Lakes tonight through Thursday, pushing a front to near the I-64 corridor by Monday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front, a few which could be strong, and then drift southward along with the front to near the VA/NC border by early Tuesday. The front will linger in the area through the latter part of the week until a stronger cold front arrives from the west. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal until the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 950 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1). Scattered thunderstorms expected Monday afternoon,

2). Much warmer tonight than recent nights.

Forecast on track and should be a mild night. A few clouds arrive across the I-64 corridor into the VA piedmont from upstream convection after midnight. CAM models allow for a small chance of a shower/storm shifting toward the WV mountains by dawn, so have added just that small threat northwest of Lewisburg, WV.

Previous discussion...

Gusty southwest winds evolved across the region today helping to boost temperatures well over what we've had prior days. Temperatures soared into the 70s and 80s after a cold morning in the 30s for most areas. This pattern will continue overnight with urban areas such as ROA only cooling into the high 50s or low 60s tonight. A west- east oriented cold front will sag slowly southward toward I-64 by afternoon. Models are not overly favorable for convection, but the threat for convection is non- zero for sure. Enough heating, instability, and dynamics along with weak frontal forcing are present for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop along this southward moving boundary by afternoon. The main area of concern would be toward RIC, but some convection could clip the northeast corner of the CWA mid to late afternoon, with isolated activity developing back to the west. To the west, upslope flow will result in thicker clouds and a chance for showers by afternoon/evening. Made some minor adjustments to pops to increase pops for the late afternoon/early evening across the mountains of southwest VA, but little change was made elsewhere. Kept pops at or below 40% for the most part.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Low Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Speed, - High Confidence in Wind Direction, - Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

Previous Near Term Discussion...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

- Enhanced Fire Danger this afternoon and evening

Will start to see high clouds from thunderstorms in Pennsylvania and Maryland spread into central and southern Virginia overnight. Front will move south tonight and Monday, reaching southwest Virginia and southern West Virginia Monday afternoon. Some guidance was suggesting axis of storms from Charleston, WV to Delaware Monday afternoon and up to 2500 J/kg of CAPE Monday afternoon, mainly after 4PM. Grand Ensemble also showed the highest probability of precipitation in the late afternoon.

As mean flow has turned to the west and southwest region stays in warm air advection. Wind speeds will be less gusty after sunset and will remain mixed enough to keep overnight temperatures mild. Highs on Monday will depend on the amount of cloud cover in the morning but breaks of sunshine will be able to tap into the warmer 850 mb temperatures.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Several periods of showers and thunderstorms - Above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday

Cold front advancing south stalls along the VA/NC border Monday night before retreating back north late Tuesday. More widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be along the front, but scattered to isolated storms will develop in the warm sector Tuesday and Wednesday.

Seeing a push of stable air and cloud cover with northeast wind on the cold side of the boundary in central and eastern Virginia on Tuesday. This may result in a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Tuesday, and cooler temperatures in the piedmont depending on eventual location of the front and cloud cover.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1250 PM EDT Sunday...

As of Key Points:

1). Active weather pattern with a threat for precipitation in the forecast for portions of the area each day.

2). Thursday into Thursday night will be the least active time period.

3). Best coverage of precipitation will be in the west.

4). Above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday trend to below normal by Sunday.

A look at the 14 April 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows the following scenario Thursday through Sunday. A shortwave trough which was over the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday evening, is expected to have lifted north and been absorbed within the approach of an even stronger trough. This second, stronger trough, is expected to head east into Quebec Friday evening with its associated axis over our region. By Saturday, flow across our region trends zonal with perhaps another upstream shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley. This shortwave trough then becomes a bit more amplified as is crosses the region on Sunday. At the surface, low pressure will move from central Ontario Thursday evening to central Quebec by Friday evening. Its associated surface cold front will cross our region on Thursday. A second cold front in association with a second and more potent trough is expected to cross the region late Friday into Friday evening. The trailing frontal boundary is then expected to move through the region Saturday.

Output from the 14 Apr 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures at a maximum on Thursday in the +12C to +14C range on Thursday. The upper end of this range touches the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the thirty-year climatology. As we progress into the weekend, temperatures trend downward, especially by Friday night. Saturday into Sunday values are expected to range from roughly 0C to +5C. Precipitable Water values across the area will be at a maximum on Thursday in the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range on Thursday and Friday. The numbers drop to 0.50 to 0.75 inch on Saturday to around 0.50 inch on Sunday.

The above weather scenario points towards one that is not a washout for the area. However, with frequent frontal passages resulting in an unsettled weather pattern, it will be necessary to keep a mention of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through this portion of the forecast will be common. Currently, the time period with the least expected coverage is Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to be five to ten degrees above normal Thursday and Friday, near normal Saturday, then about five degrees below normal for Sunday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.
Confidence is on the lower side with respect to timing and impacts.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 815 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1). Mostly VFR Conditions Expected Through the TAF Valid Period,

2). Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Possible Monday Afternoon/Evening,

3). Gusty Southwest Winds Decrease Slightly Through the Period.

Synopsis: VFR conditions are expected overnight with a warm and dry air mass over the region. Scattered mid-high clouds will drift south overnight from diminishing thunderstorms across PA.
These thunderstorms are focused along a slowly southward moving frontal boundary. This frontal boundary will drift toward the I-64 corridor by late afternoon Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along this front by afternoon.

Ceilings...VFR ceilings are expected through most of the TAF valid period. SCT-BKN high end MVFR ceilings may develop across southeast WV from BLF-LWB waste in the TAF valid period. SCT thunderstorms may result in isolated pockets of sub-VFR conditions after 19Z Monday.

Visibilities...VFR visibilities expected through the TAF valid period outside of brief MVFR visibilities in any isolated thunderstorms, with low possibility at a specific TAF site. LYH has the greatest possibility of seeing sub-VFR visibilities Monday after 20Z.

Winds...continuing SW-WSW through the TAF valid period at speeds of 10-15 mph overnight and 10-20 mph Monday. Periodic gusts to 25 mph possible.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Ceilings, - Moderate to High Confidence in Visibilities, - Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Mainly VFR through Tuesday, though cloud cover is expected to increase. Seeing a push of stable air and cloud cover with northeast wind on the cold side of the boundary in central and eastern Virginia on Tuesday. This may result in a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and MVFR ceilings in the piedmont.

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of this system Wednesday and Thursday.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPSK NEW RIVER VALLEY,VA 11 sm19 minSW 0310 smClear63°F43°F48%29.95
KBLF MERCER COUNTY,WV 19 sm62 minW 12G2010 smClear64°F39°F39%29.98
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