Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pulaski, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1: Afternoon/evening showers and storms for much of this week.
Repeated rainfall will make localized flash flooding a bigger concern as the week progresses.

2: Well above normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Afternoon/evening showers and storms for much of this week. Repeated rainfall will make localized flash flooding a bigger concern as the week progresses.

Surface high pressure off the New England coast will drift southeast and offshore today. This will induce more of a southeast wind trajectory across the Mid-Atlantic with wind flow perpendicular to the Blue Ridge yielding low level cloud cover with upslope showers, drizzle and fog along the Parkway.
Meanwhile an upper level short wave trough will approach from the west, producing upward vertical motion this afternoon and evening favoring scattered to numerous showers across the western CWA along with embedded thunderstorms. The combination of the two lifting mechanisms should lead to better than 50 percent coverage of showers along and west of the Blue Ridge today...and less than 50 percent for areas east of the mountains. PWATs are forecast to increase to between 1.50 and 2.00 inches, which will support rain efficient showers, but CAPE should be held under 1000 j/kg due to the abundance of cloud cover. The clouds will also act to mute the temperatures, so unless we break out and get some sun to boost the CAPE, think nothing more than general thunderstorms today with marginal threat for excessive rainfall.

As we transition into Wednesday and Thursday, trend is for less cloud cover yielding warmer temperatures and higher CAPE. In turn this should lead to a category increase in overall severe weather and flash flood risk.

The moist and conditionally unstable airmass looks to remain in place throughout the rest of the work week allowing for mainly diurnally driven deep convection. A break in the pattern may take place this weekend per forecast of a modest cold front passage, but then the pattern comes right back for the following week.

Key Message 2: Well above normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday.

Westerly winds are expected to increase ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday and Friday. Warm air advection ahead of the front will couple with downslope adiabatic warming lee of the Blue Ridge to produce some really warm temperatures for the foothills and Piedmont, including Roanoke where daytime highs may reach the mid to upper 90s. Combined with the high dewpts/humidity the resultant heat indices could flirt with the triple digits. As such it's time to start thinking heat safety; a giant swimming pool comes to mind as an initial strategy.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Southeast low level winds will produce an area of upslope low cigs and vsbys along the Blue Ridge through 16Z/noon today.
Local IFR is expected vcnty of the Blue Ridge with potential for partial ridge obscurations. Away from the ridge, either side, conditions will be better, favoring MVFR as the overall category. In general expecting low cigs through the morning before improving for the afternoon.

Light rain/drizzle along the Blue Ridge this morning will become showery this afternoon with the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Wind flow will become southerly tonight, favoring higher cloud bases. Still need to watch for scattered deep convection through about midnight and patchy fog after midnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Pattern stays fairly active with lingering front into midweek.
Although we should have scattered showers/storms each day but organization lacking. So overall look for mainly VFR late morning into the afternoon/evening outside of storms with potential at times for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys late at night with fog. This pattern may stay this way into Saturday as heat and humidity increase.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.