Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vansant, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:19PM Saturday August 17, 2019 1:59 PM EDT (17:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:47PMMoonset 7:32AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vansant, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 171735
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
135 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Disturbances passing north this weekend. Cold front midweek
with high pressure for the latter part of next week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 130 pm Saturday...

a surface high pressure system currently centered near jackson,
ky will slowly drift east through the period, with weak
southwesterly flow developing tonight into Sunday. This will
bring added low level moisture for Sunday. Today will be mostly
dry with the high pressure system in control. A convective
complex currently over central in should brush by to the nw,
with an isolated t-storm possibly scraping across the far nw
forecast area. High res models are in decent agreement keeping
this activity just outside of the cwa, but its close enough
that low end pops seems warranted.

A weak upper level shortwave trough passes by to the north
overnight, but again the surface high should keep keep activity
to the north of the forecast area. Areas of river valley fog are
expected with flow remaining weak.

With a bit better moisture on Sunday, have isolated to scattered
showers and storms across mainly the mountains. The GFS has more
widespread QPF chances, but think it is too aggressive with mid
level moisture.

Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period.

Heat indices are expected to be in the upper 90s across the
southwestern forecast area Sunday afternoon.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 315 am Saturday...

an ongoing active weather pattern will be set in place with the
500mb broad low set up over canada allowing its associated
trough extending into the south tapping into all the available
moisture and pulling it into the area. The trough will allow its
surface frontal boundary to slowly sweep across the northern
part of the area and become quasi-stationary with a few short
wave pulses moving overhead as the trough moves east on Monday.

Even with the trough to the east moisture will still be pulled
in from the south as the frontal boundary is draped across the
region. This will provide enough moisture and lifting to aide in
shower and thunderstorm development through Monday into
Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 330 am Saturday...

by this forecast period the upper level trough will finally
have moved off to the east, however some of the energy will be
left behind over the area on Tuesday. Expecting a short wave
pulse to move over on Tuesday so decided to leave in chances
for showers and storms which would be mostly be diurnally
driven in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to reach
to the lower 90's providing enough instability for the afternoon
convection. On Wednesday wrap around flow from the 500mb low
over canada will sweep another through with an associated
surface cold front through the area into Thursday. Another round
of afternoon showers and storms will again take place as well
as likely showers and storms late Wednesday into the overnight.

Thursday will taper off by most likely midday and high pressure
settles in thereafter with relatively fair weather into the
weekend along with temperatures cooling to slightly around
seasonal.

Aviation 17z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 130 pm Saturday...

vfr conditions expected today, with light low level flow. Relied
fairly heavily on a persistence forecast for fog tonight,
thinking it should be similar to last night. Did go a bit
stronger on fog at crw with dew points a touch higher. Any fog
will dissipate 12z-14z Sunday.VFR expected for the remainder of
the TAF period with an afternoon t-shower possible across the
mountains.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Sunday...

forecast confidence: medium to high.

Alternate scenarios: timing and density of fog may vary tonight.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
edt 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h m m
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 18z Sunday...

morning valley fog with ifr conditions possible again Monday
morning. Ifr possible with showers and storms mid week.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Mz jz
near term... Mz
short term... Jz
long term... Jz
aviation... Mz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA21 mi90 minWSW 310.00 miFair81°F61°F52%1021.3 hPa
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA24 mi65 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F59°F48%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFZ

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW3CalmNW3N5N3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4NE3NE3CalmSE3CalmNW3CalmNW4
1 day agoSW3NW5W4NW5N5NW4NW4NW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW4Calm
2 days agoNW3W8N7N4NW7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NW3CalmS3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmNW3W3NW3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson, KY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.