Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vansant, VA

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:22PM Saturday February 27, 2021 5:13 AM EST (10:13 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vansant, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 270958 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 458 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Surges of low level moisture yield periods of moderate to heavy rainfall early this morning and again Sunday over portions of the area. Cold front follows Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 450 AM Saturday .

As previously alluded to, have canceled the winter weather advisories with temperatures rising above freezing. Temperatures across this area will continue to rise through daybreak with a combination of increasing southwesterly flow and precipitation drag through the warm nose.

Also bumped QPF totals up a bit across portions of SW WV this morning with training along an area of enhanced psuedo-surface convergence at the nose of a H850 jet. Amounts now generally .75 to 1 inch with some localized pockets of higher values possible. Still expect to remain under flash flood guidance, but looking more favorable for isolated high water issues.

As of 200 AM Saturday .

Three main concerns for the near term period through early Sunday morning:

* Lingering warm nose over the higher terrain: Precipitation has largely ended here with another swath approaching at the nose of an areas of enhanced H850 flow. Largely think surface temperatures rise above freezing in response to increasing southwesterly flow prior to this precipitation arriving, but couldn't rule out a brief period of additional light freezing rain prior to mixing out. Currently plan to maintain winter weather advisories until a bulk of locations rise above freezing which should yield cancellation a couple hours ahead of expiration if the current temperature forecast pans out.

* Swath of moderate to heavy rainfall early this morning across SW VA and S WV: Precipitable water values of 1 to 1.25 inches will advect into the region at the nose of 60KT southwesterly H850 flow providing forcing for ascent. MUCAPE values of 200-300j/kg with relatively deep warm cloud depths for the end of February (6-7kft) should provide efficient precipitation production along this relatively narrow corridor. Have seen 1hr precipitation estimates upstream with this activity of around half an inch per hour and could see around 1 inch of accumulation with some locally higher amounts in a few hours over portions of Mingo, Buchanan, Wyoming, Raleigh and Fayette county this morning. One/three hour flash flood guidance in these locations are still relatively high, 1 to 1.5 inch 1hr and 1.5 to 1.75 inch 3hr, but some localized high water issues certainly appear possible. Couldn't rule out a rumble of thunder with this activity, but chances appear too low to include with the forecast package at this time.

* Swath of moderate to heavy rainfall moving into the region early Sunday morning: Similar setup to the area of moderate to heavy rain this morning: Strengthening moisture transport as H850 flow increases, low level psuedo surface convergence at the nose of the aforementioned H850 flow, MUCAPE profiles with 200-300j/kg maximized above 0C and precipitable water values surging to 1 to 1.25 inches. Initial swath is expected to be just north of the swath from this morning, lifting north across the area into the short term period. Depending on any overlap in rain totals, could begin to see sharp rises on creeks and streams in this area as early as Sunday morning. While mid-level lapse rates are not particuarly impressive and updrafts struggle to generate much charge separation, have include a slight chance of thunder with this activity.

Outside of the previously mentioned issues, relatively benign conditions are expected today into tonight with mainly just some light rain or drizzle in the absence of significant forcing. May see some improvement in low ceilings by late this afternoon as the inversion weakens slightly.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 355 AM Saturday .

The next, and likely most potent of a series of waves affecting the area this weekend, will be ongoing Sunday morning. Given greater amplification than its predecessors, the axis of heaviest rainfall shifts north on Sunday, which temporarily alleviates flood concerns somewhat across southern portions of the area getting hit early this morning, but spreads the excessive rainfall threat farther north. Furthermore, as the wave goes by Sunday night, the axis shifts back south, so southern areas will accumulate additional rainfall Sunday night, as yet another wave tracks along the then southward moving cold front.

Models have converged on less separation between the farther north Sunday wave versus the other, farther south waves, more closely supporting a consensus / central guidance QPF blend reflecting highest values south, just over three inches, falling to around an inch in the northwest corner of the forecast area.

The nose of an h85 50-60 kt feed cranks PW values up further, to 1.4 inches or better on Sunday. With a deep warm layer for the end of february persisting, Heavy rainfall remains on tap for central to northern portions of the forecast area Sunday, and then shifts only slowly southward Sunday night. This results in higher QPF south Sunday night, compared with previous packages, and this a higher confidence in some flooding issues occurring there.

Another threat area is the northern mountainous region, where snowpack is likely carrying 2 to 3 inches of SWE. However, with temperatures peaking in the 50s and dew points perhaps falling short of 50 there, the snowpack will at least initially absorb the rain before a gradual release occurs. Gusty winds will aid in the release of this moisture, so all told, confidence is higher in flooding issues developing there as well.

Both of these areas are covered by the existing Flood Watch, and with a southward shift in model consensus on the more northern wave on Sunday, a northwestward expansion of the Flood Watch does not appear to be necessary at this time, which matches well with the slight risk area depicted in the latest excessive rainfall outlook for Sunday through Sunday night.

Skinny elevated CAPE can develop along and just south of the axis of the axis of heaviest moisture, where h85 theta e gets to 320K or better with dew points approaching 10C at that level. Thus have continued the slight chance for thunder Sunday into Sunday night across mainly central and southeastern portions of the forecast area, along and south of the cold front.

Very dry air brings stout clearing from northwest to southeast on Monday as arctic high pressure approaches. That high will bring about a clear sky Monday night through Tuesday morning, followed by increasing cloudiness ahead of the next system Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures close to central guidance, except a bit higher south of the front on Sunday, and a bit lower in the valleys Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 35 AM Saturday .

Models still diverge considerably on systems possibly affecting the area Wednesday and Friday of next week, as southern stream closed lows pass. The first is weak and likely to pass south of the area. The second one is generally progged to be stronger, but a more influential northern stream may shunt that system south of the area as well. All in all, the week could actually turn out to be rather tranquil.

No adjustments were needed to the near to slightly above normal and rather monotone central guidance temperatures, although it may turn a little cooler toward next weekend.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 115 AM Saturday .

Largely VFR ceilings early this morning give way to MVFR then IFR conditions through the day as low level moisture advection increases. Moderate to heavy rain will move into southern portions of the forecast area prior to daybreak this morning. BKW will likely see periods of heavier rain tapering off a few hours after daybreak. CRW/HTS/EKN may also catch the northern edge of this band, but with mainly just light rain this morning. Remaining terminals largely dry through tonight.

Slackening moisture advection may yield some improvement in ceilings this afternoon/evening to MVFR before the next wave increasing low level moisture advection begins to arrive toward the end of this TAF period.

Gusty downslope winds, 25-30KTs fade this morning as low level flow slackens primarily affecting BKW. Winds at the remaining terminals mainly southeasterly and 5-10KTs with some occasional higher gusts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of IFR CIGs may vary from TAFs. LLWS possible at BKW for a few hours this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 02/27/21 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H L M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H M M H H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY . IFR possible in periods of rain through early Monday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for WVZ005>008-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH . Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for OHZ086-087. KY . Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA . Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for VAZ003-004.

SYNOPSIS . TRM/JP NEAR TERM . JP SHORT TERM . TRM LONG TERM . TRM AVIATION . JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA21 mi18 minSE 410.00 miLight Rain45°F43°F93%1016.3 hPa
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA24 mi18 minSSE 610.00 miLight Drizzle0°F0°F%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFZ

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW6NW3NW6N6N4W3CalmNW3W6W5
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2 days agoS3S3S3W4SW3W4SW8
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