Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vansant, VA
April 29, 2024 7:08 AM EDT (11:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 12:24 AM Moonset 9:34 AM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 291053 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 653 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains through today keeping conditions mostly dry with hot, summerlike temperatures this afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 630 AM Monday...
Updated temperatures and dewpoints to match obs. Most locations have decoupled quite a bit this morning allowing lows in the 50s across the area. Temperatures will quickly warm up this morning with sunrise.
As of 200 AM Monday...
Azores high pressure off the coast to our SE will continue to extend a ridge over the area through the day. Mild temperatures are expected this morning with most locations cooling off into the 50s and lower 60s. Spotty fog will likely form across the southern coalfields and mountains due to strong decoupling across these areas.
Today's temperatures will progress from a cool spring morning to more of a parching July afternoon: The lowlands will see highs in the mid to high 80s, approaching record territory in some spots; while the mountains will remain in the 70s and lower 80s. Some models think that temperatures will be 3-5 degrees warmer, which would be achievable if our trees were not mostly green (more water content to allow cooling) and if a high pressure center were directly overhead to decouple the area.
Mostly dry through the afternoon with scattered CU fields popping up during peak heating hours, a remote afternoon shower or storm cannot be ruled out due to the diurnal heating, but chances for this are rather low. SSW winds gradually increasing from calm to a light breeze by late afternoon. Drier air will mix down as a result allowing for RH percentages in the 30s this afternoon areawide. Winds look to be light enough to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. Plus, fuel moistures are starting to recover well enough this morning to create a decent buffer going into the afternoon when the driest conditions will exist.
Cold front will approach from the west late tonight into early Tuesday, which will be marked with increasingly cloudy skies tonight and rain/isolated thunderstorms along our western flank by Tuesday morning.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM Monday...
A southern stream short wave trough pushes a weakening surface cold front across the area Tuesday. This brings clouds, showers and a few thunderstorms into the area from west to east during the morning and midday hours. This limits the opportunity for heating to eastern portions of the area, but CAPE up to a KJ/kg could still be realized in the moist air mass, in which PW values climb as high as 1.4 in.
Modest deep layer flow/bulk shear coupled with midday and afternoon instability could support strong, heavy thunderstorms, but severe weather is not anticipated.
The southwest flow through a deep layer roughly parallel to the front could support training of thunderstorms, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall amounts. The flow also diminishes late in the day, slowing storm motion for a narrow window of opportunity for slower storm motion contributing to locally heavy rainfall as well, before the cold front crosses and the column starts to dry from west to east.
Dead low level flow in the wake of the weak system is likely to lead to areas of fog and stratus overnight into Wednesday morning, but the moist layer should be shallow enough to mix through during the day.
High pressure Wednesday gives way to a return south to southwest flow Thursday, continuing the dry weather. Areas of fog and especially stratus will be less Wednesday night and even less if any Thursday night, with the intervening days of drying and the return low level flow, albeit light.
Central guidance reflects lowland temperatures in the 70s much of if not all of the day Tuesday, with highs earliest west.
Temperatures top out in the lower 80s across the lowlands Wednesday, before returning to the mid to upper 80s on Thursday, Lows will be in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday nights, before returning to around 60s across th lowlands Thursday night.
Overall, above normal temperatures prevail.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 350 AM Monday...
The area resides in unseasonably warm air Friday, before a cold front crosses Friday night into Saturday. Its driving mid- upper level short wave trough and parent surface low lift well up into Canada, so heights barely drop if at all, and the front may get bogged down or even wash out over the area on Saturday.
Another southern stream short wave trough may approach Sunday, with the chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
Central guidance reflects a hot Friday and warm Friday night.
Temperatures then settle a little but remain above normal over the weekend.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 645 AM Monday...
VFR conditions through the period under mostly clear skies with either calm or light SSW winds. EKN is reporting fog which is causing VIS fluctuations. VFR will resume by ~13Z after sunrise. Winds may gust between 13-16kts at times from ~16-22Z due to mixing ,but this will mostly be observed at the western sites of HTS, PKB and any smaller terminals across SE Ohio.
A front will approach from the west tonight bringing with it lowering CIGs and some showers/thunderstorms by ~12Z Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR at EKN may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 653 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains through today keeping conditions mostly dry with hot, summerlike temperatures this afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 630 AM Monday...
Updated temperatures and dewpoints to match obs. Most locations have decoupled quite a bit this morning allowing lows in the 50s across the area. Temperatures will quickly warm up this morning with sunrise.
As of 200 AM Monday...
Azores high pressure off the coast to our SE will continue to extend a ridge over the area through the day. Mild temperatures are expected this morning with most locations cooling off into the 50s and lower 60s. Spotty fog will likely form across the southern coalfields and mountains due to strong decoupling across these areas.
Today's temperatures will progress from a cool spring morning to more of a parching July afternoon: The lowlands will see highs in the mid to high 80s, approaching record territory in some spots; while the mountains will remain in the 70s and lower 80s. Some models think that temperatures will be 3-5 degrees warmer, which would be achievable if our trees were not mostly green (more water content to allow cooling) and if a high pressure center were directly overhead to decouple the area.
Mostly dry through the afternoon with scattered CU fields popping up during peak heating hours, a remote afternoon shower or storm cannot be ruled out due to the diurnal heating, but chances for this are rather low. SSW winds gradually increasing from calm to a light breeze by late afternoon. Drier air will mix down as a result allowing for RH percentages in the 30s this afternoon areawide. Winds look to be light enough to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. Plus, fuel moistures are starting to recover well enough this morning to create a decent buffer going into the afternoon when the driest conditions will exist.
Cold front will approach from the west late tonight into early Tuesday, which will be marked with increasingly cloudy skies tonight and rain/isolated thunderstorms along our western flank by Tuesday morning.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM Monday...
A southern stream short wave trough pushes a weakening surface cold front across the area Tuesday. This brings clouds, showers and a few thunderstorms into the area from west to east during the morning and midday hours. This limits the opportunity for heating to eastern portions of the area, but CAPE up to a KJ/kg could still be realized in the moist air mass, in which PW values climb as high as 1.4 in.
Modest deep layer flow/bulk shear coupled with midday and afternoon instability could support strong, heavy thunderstorms, but severe weather is not anticipated.
The southwest flow through a deep layer roughly parallel to the front could support training of thunderstorms, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall amounts. The flow also diminishes late in the day, slowing storm motion for a narrow window of opportunity for slower storm motion contributing to locally heavy rainfall as well, before the cold front crosses and the column starts to dry from west to east.
Dead low level flow in the wake of the weak system is likely to lead to areas of fog and stratus overnight into Wednesday morning, but the moist layer should be shallow enough to mix through during the day.
High pressure Wednesday gives way to a return south to southwest flow Thursday, continuing the dry weather. Areas of fog and especially stratus will be less Wednesday night and even less if any Thursday night, with the intervening days of drying and the return low level flow, albeit light.
Central guidance reflects lowland temperatures in the 70s much of if not all of the day Tuesday, with highs earliest west.
Temperatures top out in the lower 80s across the lowlands Wednesday, before returning to the mid to upper 80s on Thursday, Lows will be in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday nights, before returning to around 60s across th lowlands Thursday night.
Overall, above normal temperatures prevail.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 350 AM Monday...
The area resides in unseasonably warm air Friday, before a cold front crosses Friday night into Saturday. Its driving mid- upper level short wave trough and parent surface low lift well up into Canada, so heights barely drop if at all, and the front may get bogged down or even wash out over the area on Saturday.
Another southern stream short wave trough may approach Sunday, with the chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
Central guidance reflects a hot Friday and warm Friday night.
Temperatures then settle a little but remain above normal over the weekend.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 645 AM Monday...
VFR conditions through the period under mostly clear skies with either calm or light SSW winds. EKN is reporting fog which is causing VIS fluctuations. VFR will resume by ~13Z after sunrise. Winds may gust between 13-16kts at times from ~16-22Z due to mixing ,but this will mostly be observed at the western sites of HTS, PKB and any smaller terminals across SE Ohio.
A front will approach from the west tonight bringing with it lowering CIGs and some showers/thunderstorms by ~12Z Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR at EKN may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJFZ TAZEWELL COUNTY,VA | 21 sm | 13 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 54°F | 88% | 30.17 | |
| KLNP LONESOME PINE,VA | 24 sm | 13 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 50°F | 94% | 30.19 |
Jackson, KY,
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