Poquoson, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poquoson, VA

June 21, 2024 12:15 PM EDT (16:15 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 7:44 PM   Moonset 3:54 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 1005 Am Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Rest of today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Tonight - SE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sun night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - SW winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1005 Am Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains offshore today. Generally benign conditions today, but breezy s/se winds expected this afternoon. Increased southerly flow is expected later Saturday and especially Sunday, as low pressure passes well north of the area and a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 211017 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 617 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast slowly shifts south through the end of the week, leading to an extended period of hot weather this weekend and again next week. There is a small chance for rain Sunday evening into Monday, and again on Thursday, but many places will stay dry.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 615 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Remaining dry and very warm today. High temperatures will inch up a few degrees compared to the previous few days.

The ongoing stretch of dry and seasonably warm weather continues today. At the surface, the synoptic pattern will be dominated by offshore high pressure that will be slowly drifting south.
Aloft, the flow is very weak with a ~596dm ridge centered over TN. Low- level thickness values and 850 mb temps inching up a few degrees support highs 3-5 deg F higher than the previous few days. With mainly weak southerly flow, still expecting some degree of sea breeze development this afternoon. This will keep coastal localities a few degrees cooler (upper 80s/low 90s) than those inland (mid 90s). Dew points will again drop off into the low- mid 60s this afternoon owing to BL mixing. Thus, the humidity will keep the heat index in check with heat indices very similar to the air temp. Skies stay sunny or mostly sunny through the day. Overnight lows also inch up a few degrees and look to be in the upper 60s or lower 70s (warmest in the urban corridors and near the coast).

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Hot temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday with maximum temperatures both days in the mid/upper 90s to around 100 F.

- Highest heat indices (105+ F) expected Sunday, with heat advisories probable for most of the area.

The hottest temps are still expected Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, the high pressure system will shift further offshore to our SE. This will shift the sfc flow to the SSW. While the ridge gradually begins to break down, 850 mb temps of 20-23C will be common across the area. This yields highs in the upper 90s to around 100 F inland and mid 90s closer to the coast. In fact, most of the recent guidance suggests Saturday may end up being the day with the hottest air temperatures. The one thing to stress is that dew points again look to mix out into the mid 60s (some guidance even suggests lower 60s). This will again act to mitigate excessively high heat indices. At this time, the heat index looks to peak in the 100-104 F range Saturday. Still cannot rule out a marginal heat advisory for parts of the area, but this is looking quite unlikely as of now.
Overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s will not provide much relief from the heat.

The core of the heat is expected to shift SE some for Sunday, though hot temps will remain over the entire forecast area with 850 temps remaining in the 20-23C range. Recent trends in the guidance (including the NBM) have been for slightly "cooler" highs and higher afternoon dew points. Probabilities from the NBM for 100 F have generally dropped by 20-50% compared to the previous forecast packages. Will continue to reflect highs in the upper 90s for most of the area, with temps around 100 F still probable around the Richmond metro and surrounding I-95 corridor. The higher dew points are in response to increasing moisture with strengthening southwesterly sfc flow. The flow aloft also shifts more W/WSW and 700 mb RH fields show a noticeable increase in moisture across the area. This is likely to prevent the degree of afternoon mixing seen today (Fri) and Saturday. In this realm, dew points only drop into the upper 60s-low 70s in the afternoon, producing heat indices well into heat advisory range (105-110 F) for most of the area. While a few locations could near 110 F, not enough confidence at this point for any excessive heat watches. Wet bulb globe temperatures (WBGT)
in the upper 80s to around 90 also suggest the potential for significant heat stress for those outdoors and especially those participating in strenuous activities. Sun night lows will remain very mild and in the 70s.

The other part of the forecast Sunday is any potential for later afternoon/evening convection. Those higher dew points support higher sfc-based instability and upper-level height falls from an approaching shortwave could set off isolated storms, especially later in the day. With the hot temps, steep low-level lapse rates and high DCAPE could support a damaging wind threat if any storm can develop. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for our northern tier of counties. Shear is weak so not expecting much in the way of organized svr wx. With uncertainty in coverage very high, PoPs are only 10-20% for the area. Will want to keep an eye on the various CAMs as they come into range over the next 24-36 hrs. A weak cold front slowly pushes through the area Sun night suggesting perhaps some higher coverage of showers or storms. Have chance PoPs for most of the area overnight (highest coverage expected N). Still, this does not look to be a widespread beneficial rainfall to alleviate the developing drought over the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Another hot day Monday with higher humidity. Scattered storms also possible across the southeast.

- The heat builds again midweek, with temperatures again increasing well into the 90s to near 100.

- Flash drought conditions developing.

It remains hot Monday, but air temps will not be as high as Sat/Sun.
However, the humidity levels will be even higher as dew points stay in the low-mid 70s for most of the area. Heat indices of 100-105 F are expected for most of the area, though SE VA and NE NC could near heat advisory criteria (105 F). The one caveat is potential afternoon convection developing along the "cold" front in these same areas which could mute the upper end temp potential. As of now, going with highs in the mid 90s areawide. Regarding convection, most guidance is honing in on ern VA and NE NC for thunderstorms and will continue high-end chance PoPs here (likely PoPs along the Albemarle Sound). Little to no coverage is expected W of I-95 with the frontal boundary E/SE of these areas, though will maintain a 20% PoP there in case models trend slower. Model instability fields show high MLCAPE (2000+ J/kg) ahead of the boundary. Weak shear will again prevent much in the way of storm organization, though the high CAPE and DCAPE again suggests damaging downburst winds and frequent lightning as potential threats.

The cold front does very little to provide any heat relief as temps Tuesday remain in the low-mid 90s. Even hotter Wednesday and we again could be talking about temps nearing 100 F. This ultimately makes sense given the downslope NW flow and still warm 850 mb temps around 21-24C per the 00z/21 GFS. It will be drier, however, with dew points perhaps dropping back in the mid 60s as compared to the low-mid 70s seen on Monday. By Thursday, another cold front approaches from the NW and will continue chance PoPs for the area, favoring the higher coverage across the S and SE. While this front looks to have a little more moisture to work with, the chances for widespread rainfall remain low. Temps may drop back into mid/upper the 80s to end the week.

On that note, it continues to not look promising for widespread rainfall, as many places will see little to no rain through the period. The latest NBM probabilities are not optimistic either with the probability for at least 0.50" of total rainfall through the midweek period 10-20% across the W/NW and 30-50% across the E/SE.
This will only exacerbate the recent dry conditions and set us up for what can be considered a "flash drought". More information on this can be found on CPC's Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or drought.gov.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 615 AM EDT Friday...

VFR is expected all of today and through most of the weekend.
Noting some very patchy ground FG/BR this morning, but vsbys are mainly MVFR or greater. Either way, expecting this to remain away from the terminals and dissipate shortly after sunrise. A few CU may develop this aftn, but most areas stay sunny. Light S/SSW winds this morning become S/SSE 5-10 kt this aftn. Winds could briefly become 10-15 kt at ORF as the sea breeze becomes established. Light S flow continues tonight w/ generally SKC.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon as high pressure remains centered off the coast. There is a low chance for some isolated to widely scattered storms Sun evening and again Mon afternoon into Mon evening.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions expected through Saturday morning.

- An elevated southerly wind is forecast to develop late Saturday through Sunday night. The best chance for SCA conditions is later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

- Moderate rip current risk at all areas beaches continues Friday.
At least a moderate risk continues through the weekend.

High pressure remains centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is primarily S 5-10kt and locally S 10-15kt in the middle Ches. Bay. Seas range from 3-4ft S to 2-3ft N. High pressure remains centered off the coast today into tonight. The wind will mainly be S to SE 5-10kt this morning into early aftn. A SSE wind is expected to increase to ~15kt with gusts up to 20kt for the Ches.
Bay and ocean N of Cape Henry later this aftn and evening, and 10- 15kt elsewhere. By later this evening and into tonight the wind is expected to become SW and diminish to 8-12kt. Seas are expected to be ~3ft today into tonight, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay, which will briefly build to 2-3ft with the late aftn/evening diurnal increase in wind.

High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Saturday into Sunday.
A SSW wind will generally be 5-10kt Saturday morning into early aftn, with a late aftn/early evening diurnal shift to SSE and increase to ~15kt for the Ches. Bay and ocean N of Cape Henry (10- 15kt elsewhere). Seas build to 3-4ft N (mainly 2-3ft S) with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 2-3ft with the diurnal shift and increase in wind. A weakening cold front slowly approaches from the NW later Saturday night through Sunday night. A SW wind potentially increases to 15-20kt for the Ches. Bay and northern ocean later Saturday night into early Sunday, with marginal SCA conditions possible in the Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient tightens over the ocean Sunday aftn/evening with a ~20kt SSW wind possible, which could result in seas building to 4-6ft N of Cape Charles later Sunday aftn into Sunday night. Additionally, a SW wind potentially increases to 15-20kt for the Ches. Bay Sunday night with marginal SCA conditions possible. The pressure gradient slackens Monday into Tuesday as the weakening cold front settles into the area and washes out. High pressure rebuilds offshore by the middle of next week with sub-SCA southerly flow returning. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft Monday into the middle of next week with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Rip currents: A moderate rip risk will continue today for all beaches with some SE swell ~3ft with ~8s periods. An elevated rip risk likely continues through the weekend. Confidence of moderate is higher for the northern beaches Saturday and Sunday, but southerly flow and a longshore current may preclude a high risk.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44072 6 mi28 minSE 3.9G5.8 80°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi46 minWNW 5.1G7 82°F 79°F30.25
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi46 minW 2.9G4.1 79°F 30.25
44087 17 mi20 min 79°F1 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 17 mi46 minSSE 1.9G1.9 80°F 30.26
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 18 mi46 min 77°F30.28
CHBV2 19 mi46 minW 4.1G5.1 78°F 30.23
44064 20 mi34 minNW 1.9G3.9 80°F 78°F1 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi46 minWSW 5.1G6 78°F 76°F30.29
44041 - Jamestown, VA 22 mi34 min0G1.9 83°F 84°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 22 mi46 minNNE 6G7 79°F 30.25
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 23 mi46 minE 1 87°F 30.2468°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi34 minSSE 5.8G7.8 79°F 80°F1 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi46 minE 6G7 77°F 30.26
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 29 mi46 minSE 2.9G5.1 84°F 79°F30.24
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi46 minS 8.9G9.9 30.29
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi50 min 76°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi46 minSSW 8G9.9 82°F 82°F30.24


Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: PHF
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Tide / Current for Tue Marshes Light, York River, Virginia
   
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Tue Marshes Light
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Fri -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:16 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 09:35 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tue Marshes Light, York River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.5
1
am
0.9
2
am
0.4
3
am
0.2
4
am
0.2
5
am
0.4
6
am
0.9
7
am
1.4
8
am
1.8
9
am
2
10
am
1.9
11
am
1.6
12
pm
1.2
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
0.3
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0.6
6
pm
1.1
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
2.3
9
pm
2.6
10
pm
2.6
11
pm
2.4


Tide / Current for Perrin River, York River, Virginia
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Perrin River
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Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:34 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 09:53 PM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Perrin River, York River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.8
1
am
1.1
2
am
0.5
3
am
0.2
4
am
0.2
5
am
0.4
6
am
0.9
7
am
1.4
8
am
1.9
9
am
2.2
10
am
2.2
11
am
2
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0.6
6
pm
1.2
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
2.5
9
pm
2.9
10
pm
3
11
pm
2.8


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Wakefield, VA,




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