Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poquoson, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:51PM Sunday December 15, 2019 7:27 AM EST (12:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:28PMMoonset 10:15AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 700 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..E winds 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W late. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 700 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds in from the west today. Low pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a backdoor cold front dropping into the area from the north. A stronger cold front crosses the coast late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson, VA
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location: 37.2, -76.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 151204 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 704 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure rebuilds over the local area through today before the next system impacts the region Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday..

Weak high pressure builds across the southeastern United States today, with downslope flow aloft allowing for mostly sunny and dry conditions w/high temperatures in the 50s. Surface high pressure traverses the local area Sunday night, then moves well offshore on Monday. Lows tonight are expected to drop into generally the low to mid 30s, minus the SE where temps will be in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

The forecast becomes a little more complex for Monday as the cold front enters the region and then hangs up across the area as a stationary front. Biggest question will be where exactly this boundary decides to hang up, which will have large impacts on both temperatures and precip Monday into Tuesday. For now, have sided most with the 00z ECMWF which has the boundary sagging south to around the Tri-Cities region Monday evening before slowly lifting back to the north Monday night and Tuesday, making it close to the northern CWA border. 00z GFS seems a little too ambitious, lifting the boundary well north of the area by Tuesday, while the 00z NAM has the boundary dipping close to the VA/NC border. Temperatures will vary widely from north to south during the day Monday, with temperatures across the NW only reaching the lower 40s, while temperatures across the SE likely climb into the lower to mid 60s. Precipitation-wise, the highest chances will be along and north of the boundary (highest across the northern 2/3rds of the area) during the day Monday. Precipitation may start off as a mix of rain and snow across far northern locations of the VA Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore, right now am not expecting much in the way of any accumulation, but this will have to be monitored closely through future shifts. Any wintry precip turns to rain by mid-morning Monday.

On Monday night, the boundary will make a slow progression back to the north as a warm front as low pressure moves NE from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Thus, temperatures Monday night likely stay steady or climb. Generally have lows ranging from around 40 across the NW to the mid/upper 50s across the south. Rain chances increase from the west through the night as the associated cold front approaches the area. The cold front then crosses the area during the day Tuesday and exits off the coast during the evening/overnight hours. Likely PoPs will move from W to E ahead of the front, coming to an end Tuesday evening/overnight. This system produces more beneficial rainfall with QPF generally in the 0.50" to 1" range. Similar to Monday, temperatures will vary from N to S across the area on Tuesday and will be highly dependent on how far north the warm frontal boundary reaches Tuesday. Right now, have highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s north to near 70 across the far S. Higher uncertainty remains in the temp forecast across the northern half of the region.

Conditions improve Tuesday night with drying behind the frontal passage and high pressure building back into the region. Expect clearing from NW to SE through the night with lows dipping into the upper 20s NW to around 40 across the SE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Saturday .

Cold front will be moving offshore Tuesday night with drying conditions and falling temperatures behind the front. Wednesday morning low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s west of I-95 and upper 30s along the coast. An upper level low pressure will track southeast out of Canada and across the Northeast US Wednesday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will range from near 40 across central VA and MD Eastern Shore to mid 40s across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s (upper 20s at the VA/NC beaches).

A cold high pressure system will settle across the region Thursday with high temperatures ranging from mid 30s north to mid 40 south. Friday will remain dry as well with slightly warmer temperatures as the sfc high pressure over the area begins to weaken, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s and low temperatures in the mid-upper 20s.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 640 AM EST Sunday .

VFR conditions are expected through the 12z TAF period. W winds will become gusty Sunday afternoon (gusts ~20 knots at times) before relaxing later in the day. Higher clouds will increase by the end of the forecast period ahead of the next system.

OUTLOOK . Sub-VFR conditions are possible Monday morning in the form of MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings, especially across the northern half (RIC/SBY) of the forecast area. Degraded flight conditions will continue to be possible area-wide Monday night through Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region and brings rain/low clouds.

MARINE. As of 700 AM EST Sunday .

Strong low pressure is centered over srn QB early this morning, with high pressure extending from the mid-Mississippi Valley through the Southeast. This pressure gradient is resulting in a W wind of 15-20kt for much of the area, with 15kt or less for the Rappahannock/York/upper James. Seas are subsiding now that the wind is offshore, and range from 4-5ft S to 5-6ft N, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay. The wind should remain W 15-20kt through midday, and then diminish this aftn as high pressure builds in from the W. Seas will continue to subside as well. SCA flags have been lowered for the Sound, Lower James, and coastal Atlantic S of Cape Charles as wind and/or seas have dropped below criteria. SCAs for the Bay continue through 1 pm, ocean from Cape Charles to Parramore Is. through 1 pm, and the ocean N of Parramore Is. through 7 pm.

High pressure slides off the Southeast coast tonight with a backdoor cold front dropping in from the N. This front settles over the area Monday as low pressure approaches from the WSW. There is considerable spread amongst the model guidance with respect to how far S the boundary pushes, and then retreats to the N Monday night into Tuesday. In general, an ENE wind of 5-10kt is expected N of the boundary, with a 10-15kt SSW wind S of the boundary. Seas should be 2-3ft while the boundary is over the area, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. By Tuesday aftn, a SW wind could increase to 15-20kt for the lower Bay and ocean, which would allow for 3-4ft seas and 2-3ft waves in the lower Bay. A cold front is expected to cross the coast Tuesday evening, with modest CAA occurring by Tuesday night with a NNW wind increasing to 20-25kt. A secondary cold front and another round of CAA are expected by Wednesday night a NNW wind again increasing to 20-25kt. SCAs are likely Tuesday night through early Thursday, with perhaps a lull during the day Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday into Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652.

SYNOPSIS . AJB NEAR TERM . AJB SHORT TERM . AJB LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . AJB MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 4 mi57 min W 16 G 20 45°F 1013.2 hPa
44072 6 mi37 min NW 14 G 18 45°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi57 min SW 12 G 15 44°F 49°F1012.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi63 min WSW 17 G 20 46°F 1012.4 hPa
44087 17 mi27 min 48°F2 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 17 mi63 min W 13 G 15 45°F 1013.6 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 18 mi63 min 49°F1013.1 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi63 min W 21 G 23 46°F 1011.5 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi63 min W 15 G 18 48°F
44064 20 mi37 min W 16 G 19 46°F 1013.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 22 mi57 min WSW 6 G 9.9 43°F 1013.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 23 mi117 min SW 1.9 40°F 1012 hPa35°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi51 min WSW 16 G 18 47°F1015.8 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi57 min WSW 8.9 G 12 44°F 1013.4 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 29 mi63 min SW 4.1 G 6 43°F 50°F1013.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi57 min SW 17 G 19 1013 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi57 min 51°F4 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi57 min W 6 G 13 44°F 47°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi33 minWSW 910.00 miFair43°F34°F71%1013.4 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA8 mi91 minWSW 1110.00 miFair42°F37°F82%1013.5 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA14 mi91 minWSW 410.00 miFair42°F32°F70%1012.5 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA19 mi88 minWSW 610.00 miFair45°F35°F68%1013.4 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA19 mi32 minWSW 310.00 miFair43°F35°F76%1013.9 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA23 mi36 minSW 910.00 miFair43°F34°F71%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHF

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW7SW10SW16
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W10W6W9W8W9W6W8W8W6SW9
1 day agoNE7NE6NE6NE4N3N3N5--NE8NE8NE10N6N3N6CalmCalmN3NE3Calm--CalmCalmSW4Calm
2 days agoN3NE11NE13
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NE10E7E10NE6NE6NE5N5NE5N4N4NW4N5NE5NE4NE5NE4E8NE3E5NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:46 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:00 AM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:30 PM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.50.90.3-0.1-0.10.10.71.42.12.62.82.72.21.60.90.3-0-0.10.20.71.31.92.2

Tide / Current Tables for Perrin River, York River, Virginia
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Perrin River
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:48 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:20 AM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:44 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 PM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.710.4-0-0.10.10.61.42.12.62.92.92.51.81.10.4-0-0.10.10.61.21.82.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.