Monday, March8, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poquoson, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 6:07PM Monday March 8, 2021 9:45 AM EST (14:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:40AMMoonset 1:16PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson, VA
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location: 37.2, -76.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 081106 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 606 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure currently near the area moves to a position along the Southeast coast by this evening. Dry weather continues through much of this week as the high moves offshore.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 305 AM EST Monday .

An expansive area of ~1032 mb high pressure is centered from the ern Great Lakes to the Deep South (and over the local area) early this morning. The persistent trough aloft that had been over the ern CONUS during the past few days has finally moved offshore, with upper ridging noted over much of the central/south-central CONUS. Clear skies and light/calm winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the mid 20s in most inland locations, with mid 20s to low 30s across SE VA and NE NC (highest readings near the water). With a decent T/Td spread, expect temperatures to drop a few more degrees between now and ~7 AM. Isolated teens cannot be ruled out in typically colder locations such as Louisa. The high is progged to move to a position along the SE CONUS coast by this evening/tonight. 4-8 mph NW winds this morning become W during the aftn before diminishing some and turning to the S-SSW this evening/tonight. Skies remain clear through tonight. A warming trend begins today, with highs ranging from the mid/upper 40s on the Ern Shore to mid 50s in most areas W of the Ches Bay. Some upper 50s are possible W of I-95. Dry again with dew points dropping into the teens in most areas. Min RH values are forecast to be around 20% inland and 25-30% along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the low 30s in most areas, with upper 20s possible in the typical cool spots in srn VA and interior NE NC.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 305 AM EST Monday .

Much warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as upper ridging builds over the ern CONUS and the surface high shifts offshore of the Southeast coast. The low level flow will generally be out of the SSW or SW on Tue/Wed. Winds remain fairly light (5-10 mph) on Tue and increase slightly during the day on Wed, when speeds will average ~10 mph. Highs rise into the upper 60s on Tue (low-mid 60s on the Ern Shore) and mainly low 70s on Wed (mid-upper 60s on the Ern Shore). Some of the statistical guidance (especially the ECS) would suggest temperatures a couple degrees higher than currently forecast (current forecast is already a few degrees higher than the NBM). Lows Tue night will be in the upper 30s-low 40s. Skies will average out to be mostly sunny during the day on Tue and Wed, with SCT-BKN high clouds Tue night. Dew points will be fairly slow to recover on Tue/Wed (despite the low-level SW flow). This will result in Min RH values in the 20s inland/30-35% for most of the Ern Shore on Tue and 25-30% inland/30-40% near the immediate coast on Wed.

Although fine fuels are drying out and RH values will meet or exceed increased fire danger thresholds, headlines do not appear likely given the current forecast for fairly light winds on Tue and Wed. However, will keep monitoring Wed for the potential for headlines if winds end up stronger than currently expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 305 AM EST Monday .

The medium range period continues to feature dry and warm conditions Thu-Fri, with increasing confidence that the pattern breaks down by the upcoming weekend. Above average temperatures prevail Thu-Fri followed by cooler temperatures over the weekend.

The model consensus is strong for the Thu-Fri period, and therefore confidence in this portion of the forecast is high. An upper level ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico, and the ridge axis will extend ENE to the Carolinas. At the sfc, strong high pressure will be centered just off the mid-Atlantic/SE US coast Wed night/Thu, eventually weakening and moving farther offshore Fri-Sat as a cold front approaches from the NW. With a W to SW flow aloft and a SW flow in the low levels, temperatures will warm well above avg (though not to record levels). Mostly clear Wed night with lows mostly in the 40s, followed by mostly sunny conditions Thu with highs in the mid 70s in most areas (67-71F eastern shore). With the somewhat breezy/well mixed airmass on Thu, a continued potential for increased fire danger exists as dew points tend to be slow to moderate this time of year (only into the upper 30s to mid 40s). The current dew point forecast would result in min RH values in the 30-35% range in most areas (slightly higher on the Ern Shore). Mild with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thu night, with another warm day likely on Fri. All deterministic models and their respective ensembles keep a SW low level flow going as the upper ridge will be slow to break down. However, the ECMWF and GFS are forecasting some light pre- frontal showers across mainly N/NW portions of the FA during the aftn and evening. Largely followed the NBM 75th percentile for highs Friday, which gives highs around 75F central/south (and a few degrees cooler N). Have slight chc PoPs NW during the second half of Fri. Mainly dry wx is expected late Fri evening- late Fri night.

For the upcoming weekend, forecast confidences decreases significantly given that there is still a decent amount of spread with regard to timing and spatial differences with the approaching cold front. Will continue to remain close to the NBM 50th percentile (which is close to the GEFS/EPS ensemble means) and yields a frontal passage during the day Sat, with highs ranging from the low 70s across the south to the mid-upper 50s NE. This will almost certainly need to be fine tuned as we get closer in time. If the front does cross the area during the day, there is the potential for temperatures to quickly drop into the 50s immediately following the FROPA. However, will not get too detailed with respect to exact timing this far out. Given the uncertainty and with the front expected to lose moisture as it moves into the local area, PoPs will be capped at 20-30% and confined mainly to the day Sat and beyond. Lows in the 40s Sat night and highs Sun mostly ranging through the 50s (with low 60s south). Skies will avg partly to mostly cloudy Sat-Sun.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 605 AM EST Monday .

VFR/SKC through the forecast period as high pressure slowly moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. NW winds 5-10 mph will become VRBL at times this aftrn due to local sea breezes. Winds become SSW tonight at 5 kt or less.

Outlook . VFR conditions continue thru the end of the week as the high becomes centered off the coast.

MARINE. As of 605 AM EST Monday .

High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast for most of the week. A cold front crosses the area next weekend. Thus, no headlines seen thru Wed nite. NNW winds aob 10 kts this morn become VRBL this aftrn due to local sea breezes then SSW Tue/Wed aob 15 kts due to the return flow around the offshore high. Seas 2-3 ft. Waves 1-2 ft.

The pres gradient tightens a bit Thurs aftrn resulting in an uptick in the SSW winds. Could see marginal SCA's (15-20 kts) across portions of the Ches Bay Thu aftrn thru Fri ahead of the apprchg cold front but kept winds blo 20 kts attm. Seas 3-5 ft. Waves 2-3 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/RMM NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . ERI/RMM LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . MPR MARINE . MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 4 mi45 min WNW 7 G 8 40°F
44072 6 mi25 min N 9.7 G 12 39°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi45 min NW 7 G 8 38°F 44°F1033.6 hPa (+1.5)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi45 min W 8.9 G 9.9 41°F 1033.4 hPa
44087 17 mi49 min 43°F1 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 17 mi45 min NW 8 G 8.9 39°F 1034.2 hPa (+1.8)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 18 mi45 min 45°F1034 hPa (+1.8)
CHBV2 19 mi45 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 40°F 1032.8 hPa (+1.8)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi45 min NW 9.9 G 11 43°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 22 mi45 min W 6 G 8.9 42°F 1033.8 hPa (+1.7)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 23 mi75 min NW 1 36°F 1034 hPa27°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi45 min WNW 9.9 G 11 41°F 1034 hPa (+1.7)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 29 mi45 min NNW 6 G 8 42°F 48°F1033.8 hPa (+1.6)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi45 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 1034.3 hPa (+1.8)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi49 min 43°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi45 min WNW 4.1 G 6 43°F 42°F1033.4 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi51 minWNW 610.00 miFair40°F29°F65%1034 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA8 mi49 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy42°F26°F52%1034.2 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA14 mi49 minW 410.00 miFair41°F31°F68%1033.5 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA19 mi46 minW 910.00 miA Few Clouds43°F26°F51%1034.3 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA19 mi50 minWNW 410.00 miFair39°F28°F65%1034.2 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA23 mi54 minVar 510.00 miFair44°F26°F49%1033.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHF

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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E12E8E7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6
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NW8NE7NE5NE5NE4E3NE3CalmCalmN4NE4NE5NE5N5NE5NE5N7
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NW11NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4N6N5NE3SW3CalmSW5

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
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Mon -- 03:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:57 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:36 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:16 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:20 PM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:33 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.81.41.92.32.42.321.50.90.50.20.20.40.81.31.71.91.91.61.20.70.30

Tide / Current Tables for Perrin River, York River, Virginia
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Perrin River
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:17 AM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:38 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:16 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:40 PM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:35 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.81.41.92.32.52.52.11.610.50.20.10.40.81.31.7221.81.40.80.30

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