Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poquoson, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:12PM Thursday September 16, 2021 1:49 PM EDT (17:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 105 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt, becoming nw late. Waves flat.
Sun..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 105 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure moves northward off the outer banks tonight and Friday then northeast off the mid- atlantic coast Friday night and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson, VA
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location: 37.2, -76.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 161412 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1012 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front weakens later today across the area as low pressure approaches from the southeast through Friday. High pressure builds in from the northwest this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1010 AM EDT Thursday .

Showers this morning have tapered off. However, an instability gradient is expected to develop this afternoon invof the nearly stationary front with additional showers/storms expected to develop later today. Temps as of 1000 AM ranged from the mid 70s to around 80F. The observed WAL sounding from 12z showed 1.78" PW.

The latest analysis indicates a rather broad upper level trough off to our W across the deep south and SE CONUS. Sfc low pressure is located well off the N coast of FL and has ~70% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next 48 hrs as it moves N and passes by off the Carolina and mid-Atlc coast. The area of showers that developed out over the Gulf Stream earlier has generally diminished before reaching our NE NC and SE VA coastal areas. For today, the local area will be sandwiched in between the coastal low remaining well off to our SE and the upper trough moving in from the SW. Thus, while it will be mostly cloudy (with at least mid/high clouds), the chance for widespread rain is still not that great for many areas. However, have raised PoPs a bit over the NW 1/2 of the CWA, mainly this aftn as the bulk of high res guidance suggests that there will be increased lift and moisture associated w/ the upper trough by late this morning and especially this aftn. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible but nothing widespread is expected in terms of flooding concerns, though WPC has a marginal risk for the day 1 ERO and the HWO mentions localized flooding as a possibility from slow moving showers/storms and heavy downpours. Pops will be lower to the E/Se where the moisture from the coastal low stays mainly offshore. Highs today will generally range from 80-85, though a few upper 80s are possible in the SE away from the coast is there is no rain and partial sun. Showers/and isolated tstms generally wind down this evening but it will stay mostly cloudy. Lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Pops increase near the coast between 06-12Z Fri AM as deeper moisture from the coastal low moves in from the SE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 410 AM EDT Thursday .

Clouds linger through Fri as the aforementioned shortwave lingers over the local area and the coastal low approaches from the SSE. Additional showers (perhaps a low-end chance of a storm or two in the afternoon) are possible Fri as the sfc low (possibly a tropical depression by this point per NHC) passes by offshore of the northern NC/southern VA coast. While this could technically be tropical, the stronger winds would remain on the E side of the system so impacts other than increased seas and rip currents are minimal for the local area. NE winds at the coast will be on the order of 20-25 mph at most. Have the greatest chance for showers along and east of I-95 (40-50% PoPs). A few degrees cooler for high Fri due to cloud cover with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Fri night in the mid to upper 60s to around 70F.

The ridge remains offshore/off the SE coast this weekend with models continuing to show a weak coastal low making the northeast turn away from the local area and moving out to sea through the weekend. However, cloud cover likely lingers into Sat given N/NNE flow and the shortwave trough lingering near the coast. However, expect breaks in the clouds by Sat afternoon/evening, particularly in the NE portions of the FA. In addition, a few showers/storms will again be possible Sat afternoon mainly in the Piedmont. Highs Sat in the lower to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 AM EDT Thursday .

The medium range period will be dominated by a strong ridge aloft Sun through Tue night, a bit of an omega block in between an upper low downstream off the Canadian maritimes and an upstream trough moving through Canada and the northern Plains. The ridge is forecast to breaks down Wed-Thu as the upstream continues E to the Great Lakes. The models are often too fast at breaking down a pattern like this so will not be going as high with precip w/ the next front late in the period. In general, expect a dry pattern as sfc high pressure will become anchored from off the coast of southern New England to the northern mid- Atlc. Skies will avg out partly to mostly sunny (with potentially a bit more aftn cloud cover in the Piedmont Mon- Tue and all areas Wed). Temperatures will be near to slightly above avg with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Will have a 20% PoP in the forecast by wed aftn and beyond as the sfc high retreats farther offshore and moisture increases a bit.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 730 AM EDT Thursday .

A few flight restrictions possible to start the TAF period at ECG/SBY then mainly VFR until additional showers/tstms become a bit more prevalent by aftn, (especially inland). Winds shift to the E/NE later today at 5-10kt (10-13 kt) at the immediate coast). Deteriorating conditions later tonight with flight restrictions likely by early Fri AM (potentially IFR/LIFR CIGs).

Outlook . Some showers are again possible on Fri, especially E of I-95 (which will affect all main terminals). With sfc low pressure passing by off the coast, NE winds will be stronger with 15-20kt possible at ORF and ~15kt at ECG/PHF. with flight restrictions possible. Some low clouds will linger Fri night into Sat morning. Mainly dry/VFR Sat aftn through early next week.

MARINE. As of 925 PM EDT Wednesday .

The National Hurricane Center continues to give a tropical disturbance northeast of the Bahamas a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next 2 days. Model guidance has the center of the tropical low pressure system farther east than previous runs. However, most guidance shows an expanding wind field as it tracks northeast and farther away from our coastline. The low pressure will make its closest approach tonight into Friday morning. SCAs are now in effect for all Atlantic Ocean coastal waters through the weekend as seas quickly increase later on this evening and into tonight. Winds will also be increasing to NE ~20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt tonight into Friday afternoon. SCAs are also in effect tonight into Friday evening for the southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound. Northeasterly to northerly winds will increase tonight into Friday to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. As the low pressure move farther into the Atlantic Ocean Friday evening, winds will become N 10-15 Friday night, then continue to decrease into Saturday.

High pressure will become centered over the Northeast U.S. this weekend and into early next week with winds NE/E 10-15 kt. Seas will come down this weekend but remain 3-4 ft into next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB/RMM SHORT TERM . LKB/RMM LONG TERM . LKB/RMM AVIATION . LKB/MPR MARINE . AJZ/CP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 4 mi56 min ESE 5.1 G 6 80°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi56 min E 9.9 G 9.9 79°F 79°F1019 hPa
44072 6 mi44 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 79°F 80°F1 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi56 min ENE 8 G 8.9 78°F 1019.5 hPa
44087 17 mi54 min 79°F1 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 17 mi56 min E 8 G 11 80°F 1019.4 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 18 mi56 min 78°F1019.1 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi56 min E 8 G 12 78°F 1018.2 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi56 min ESE 8.9 G 11 79°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 22 mi56 min ENE 8 G 12 81°F 1018.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 23 mi80 min E 1.9 87°F 1020 hPa76°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi44 min E 3.9 G 3.9 78°F 80°F1 ft1020.7 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi56 min E 9.9 G 12 78°F 1019.5 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 29 mi56 min ESE 6 G 9.9 85°F 79°F1018.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi56 min N 1.9 G 2.9 1020.3 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi54 min 77°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi56 min ESE 5.1 G 8 81°F 80°F1019.9 hPa

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi56 minESE 910.00 miFair84°F72°F67%1019.1 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA8 mi54 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F74°F74%1020.2 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA14 mi1.9 hrsSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F67°F62%1018.9 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA19 mi51 minE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F69°F61%1019.5 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA19 mi55 minESE 310.00 mi88°F75°F66%1019.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA23 mi59 minENE 910.00 miFair82°F72°F72%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHF

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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S10S8S6S8S5S5S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm3E5E6E9
1 day agoS9S10SW11SW9SW6S7S6S5S5S8S8S8SW9SW9SW8SW7SW9E3S5S7S7S6S9S10
2 days agoCalmSW4SW3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmS6S8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
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Thu -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:58 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:25 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.611.51.92.32.32.21.81.40.90.50.40.611.62.22.62.92.92.62.11.51

Tide / Current Tables for Perrin River, York River, Virginia
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Perrin River
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:00 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.91.41.92.32.42.321.50.90.50.40.50.91.52.12.6332.82.31.71

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