Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Scotland, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered thunderstorms are once again expected this afternoon and evening. There is a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts.

- While storm coverage will be much less today than it was yesterday, a few spots could see an additional 2-3" of rain, which would likely result in flash flooding.

- Have extended the Flood Watch through tonight given the wet antecedent conditions.

Early morning wx analysis shows an upper trough stretching from the eastern Great Lakes south to the srn Appalachians, with strong ridging in the SW CONUS and off the SE CONUS coast. There is not much in the way of a surface pattern, although there is a weak sfc trough across wrn VA/NC. Tstms have dissipated with lingering showers (that should slowly decrease in coverage between now and sunrise). The upper trough axis is progged to cross the area today before moving offshore tonight. Dry wx prevails through much of the morning. With the trough axis crossing the area, there should be just enough in the way of height falls/lift to trigger scattered tstms this afternoon and evening. However, coverage will be less than it has been the past two days. In fact, most areas could very well stay dry. There is also a lower severe wx threat (highs only rise into the mid/upper 80s with ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE/minimal shear). SPC still has a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for damaging wind gusts (likely sub-severe but able to cause tree damage).

Tstms may develop by early-mid aftn along sea breeze boundaries near the coast (and along the higher terrain west of the CWA). It may take awhile for storms to develop/move into inland portions of the area given that the environment is convectively overturned in the wake of yesterday's storms. However, expect at least scattered tstms across much of the area between 4-10 PM. The highest coverage is expected to shift from the coast to inland portions of srn VA and NE NC this evening. Tstms will likely dissipate by midnight. The flow aloft is weaker (only 15-20 kt at 500mb) today, so storms will be very slow moving and efficient rain producers given the PWs around 2.0". So, a few areas could see 2-3" of rain in a short time. This would be more than enough to cause flash flooding given the wet antecedent conditions. But given that storm coverage will be much lower today, less instances of flooding are expected (although can't completely rule out highly localized significant flash flooding given the slower expected storm motions today). Therefore, have opted to extend the Flood Watch through 06z/2 AM tonight given the 2- 6" of rain that has fallen across the NW 2/3 of the FA during the past 36-48 hours. Will not expand the watch to include Norfolk/VA Beach or most of NE NC given that these areas did not see much of any rain the past 2 days.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are still expected from Friday through Sunday as the unsettled pattern continues.

- A threat for highly localized flooding will continue from Friday through the weekend.

The upper trough axis finally shifts to our east on Friday. As a result, we finally start to see some upper height rises (which should continue through the weekend. However, diurnally driven tstms will continue each day from Friday-Sunday as the environment will still be uncapped. However, storm coverage will be less than what is expected today. Additionally, the swath of 2.0"+ PWs will be shunted to our SE. So while there is certainly a possibility of flooding, it won't be as widespread as what we have seen. But, with very weak flow aloft expected through the weekend, a few isolated spots could see 1-3" of rain each day (which could result in flash flooding). In addition, there is a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts (mainly due to localized downbursts) each day a few hours on either side of peak heating, as is fairly typical this time of year. Temperatures will be around seasonal averages from Friday through the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid from early-mid next week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

A more seasonable (but somewhat unsettled) July weather pattern is expected from the early to middle part of next week. The upper ridge will try to build back toward the area, with decently fast zonal flow aloft expected across the northern United States and southern Canada. This will result in typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day from Mon-Wed. The good news is the storm coverage will be isolated to perhaps scattered (similar to what is expected over the weekend). Exact details are difficult to pinpoint this far out, but the main concern with any storms will likely be localized flash flooding given the rain expected from today- Saturday. Highs each day will be around seasonal averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F).

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Thursday...

Storms have dissipated and showers remain near the terminals early this morning. The showers will continue for the next few hours, with dry wx expected to prevail from 09-16z. The main flight concern in the near term is the potential for MVFR to IFR CIGs from now-15z (lowest at KRIC/KSBY). CIGs become BKN between 3000-5000 ft later today. Scattered tstms are possible as early as 17-19z at SBY/ORF/PHF...with storms possible later this aftn/this evening at RIC/ECG. The coverage of convection won't be as high today as it has been the past two days, but any storm will be capable of producing brief LIFR VSBYs and gusty winds to 25-30 kt. Storms should dissipate by 04-05z. For now, have VCSH in the TAFs and may add PROB30/TEMPO groups with the 12z TAF issuance.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are expected from Fri through the weekend, along with the potential for early morning ground fog/stratus.

MARINE
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from afternoon and evening storms.

Winds across the waters are generally W or SW 10-15 kt with a few gust to 20 kt early this morning. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft (highest N).

Sub advisory conditions expected today and into the weekend as the area remains between a weak surface trough over inland areas and high pressure well east into the Atlantic. Winds today will stay mostly in the 10-15 kt range, becoming more S or SE into this afternoon. Sea breeze forcing may allow areas near shore to go more easterly late this afternoon into the evening. Another round of showers and storms is expected this afternoon and evening, perhaps farther south and a bit earlier than previous days. Coverage of convection is expected to be a bit more sparse today but locally enhanced winds/waves and frequent lightning can be expected to accompany any storms that form this afternoon and evening. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with sub-SCA winds and daily shower/storm chances. Latest guidance does show the potential for a back door front to impact the waters late in the weekend with flow becoming NE or E behind the boundary before S flow resumes into early next week. Waves in the Chesapeake will average 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft into this weekend.

There is a Low Rip Current risk at all area beaches today.
Southeast swell energy does increase a bit on Friday, especially for the northern beaches, but will maintain a low rip risk for now. Also of note is the extended period of upwelling along the northern NC OBX that has resulted in a prolonged period of water temperatures only in the mid 60s. These conditions are likely to persist with continued SW flow over the coming days.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ021>025.
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 075>090-092-509>523.
MARINE...None.