Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Scotland, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:30PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:27 AM EDT (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:51PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 353 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Through 7 am..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely in the evening.
Thu..W winds 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 353 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds over the local area today. An area of low pressure tracks across the region on Wednesday, with a strong cold front crossing the waters Wednesday night. Low pressure will intensify over new england on Thursday, bringing strong northwest winds to the local area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scotland CDP, VA
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location: 37.21, -76.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 151041
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
641 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered to our north will keep the region dry on
Tuesday. A strong cold front crosses the area on Wednesday
bringing periods of rain and gusty winds behind the front. High
pressure builds in for the end of the week with cooler and drier
conditions expected.

Near term through tonight
As of 600 am edt Tuesday...

the fog that has persisted much of the night near the coast has
diminished in coverage. Latest surface obs and satellite imagery
shows some pockets continuing in NE nc and along the coast of
md va. Issued another sps for patchy dense fog until 8 am.

Further inland, good radiational cooling has allowed temps to
dip a little bit more than expected. Many locations south and
west of the richmond metro have dropped into the lower 40's,
with even a couple readings in the upper 30's in louisa county.

Temps will rebound quickly after sunrise, with high temps
reaching the low to mid 70's this afternoon.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday
As of 330 am edt Tuesday...

a strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday bringing
some much needed rain to the area. A shortwave digging through
the northern stream will amplify as it crosses the ohio valley.

Meanwhile, a healthy southern stream will help to tap into some
gulf moisture ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show pwat
values increasing to about 1.5 inches on Wednesday. Expect
showers to overspread the region from southwest to northeast
beginning before 12z Wednesday and lasting through late
Wednesday evening. Instability isn't impressive but can't rule
out a couple rumbles of thunder. Overall thinking on QPF is in
line with wpc, with rainfall values generally ranging from
0.5-1.0 inches with isolated higher amounts. Went on the cooler
side of guidance for high temps on Wednesday, as it's expected
overcast and rainy conditions will likely hold temps in the mid
to upper 60s.

By 06z Thursday the rain should be over across the region, and a
gusty wnw wind will bring in drier and much cooler conditions.

Low temps Thursday morning will easily be in the 40s for most of
the region except right near the coast. Areas west of i-95 may
get close to 40 degrees. Thursday afternoon high temps will only
reach the low to mid 60s. Winds will gust 25-30mph across most
of the area, but the md eastern shore may see wind gusts up to
35-40mph Thursday morning and afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 130 pm edt Monday...

sfc hi pres moves across the fa fri-sat resulting in dry near
seasonable wx. Return flow behind the high as it moves off the
coast Sun through Mon will likely bring an increase in moisture
(and pops) from the SW ahead of lo pres tracking through the
midwest - initially inland during sun... Then all areas by sun
night mon.

Lows Thu night 40-45f inland to around 50f at the immediate
coast. Highs Fri in the l-m60s. Lows Fri night in the l-m40s
inland to the l50s at the (immediate coast). Highs Sat in the
u60s-l70s. Lows Sat night in the u40s inland to the l-m50s at
the coast. Highs Sun in the l70s at the coast and m70s elsewhere.

Highs Mon from the l70s N to the u70s far se.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 640 am edt Tuesday...

patchy fog may still briefly impact visbys at kecg and kphf for a
couple more hours but once the remainder of the fog burns off all
taf locations will beVFR throughout the day. Winds will be NE this
morning becoming SE by late in the day. Wind speeds will remain
below 10 kts.

Looking ahead... A cold front will cross the area on Wednesday.

Periods of showers are expected with a slight chance of
thunderstorms, especially closer to the coast. Flight
restrictions are possible in areas of heavy rain. After the
frontal passage, gusty wnw winds are expected late Wednesday
night and through the day on Thursday.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

a weak cold front is currently crossing the lower bay shifting
winds to the NW and eventually the NE later this morning.

Pressure gradient and CAA is too weak for issuance of any sca
headlines but will see a few hrs worth of sustained winds
approaching 15 kt and a few gusts potentially to near 20 kt.

Winds will become E at 5-10 kt during the aftn. Sub- sca
conditions then prevail tonight, before another area of low
pressure is progged to impact the area on wed, followed by a
much stronger cold front Wed night. Some potential for sca
conditions for building seas on the coastal waters and 15-20kt
winds into the lower bay in sse flow late Wed am into Wed aftn
before the winds shift to the W late Wed aftn. With this being
3rd period and somewhat marginal uncertain did not raise any
scas yet.

Have issued a gale watch for the coastal zones N of cape
charles light for Wed night Thu for what will be a 12hr or
greater period with gusts of 35-40 kt expected. Strong CAA and
an intensifying sfc low pushes off the mid-atlantic coast wed
night and into new england on thu. Strong scas (due to winds)
look likely Wed night-thu for the remainder of the region and
even in these zones not in the gale watch, there probably will
be a few hrs worth of occasional gusts to ~35 kt late wed
evening or early Thu am as the initial surge of sharply colder
air moves through. Local wind probabilities are depicting >80%
chances for gale gusts at buoy 44009 Wed night early Thu tapered
to 20-40% (or less) over the southern coastal waters and bay.

Due to the offshore NW flow, seas will not build that much
despite the strong winds, generally to 4-6 ft while waves in the
bay build to ~4 ft with 2-3 ft waves in the rivers. The current
forecast has winds remaining AOA sca thresholds for bay and
coast through ~12z fri. Sub-sca conditions return by late fri,
as high pressure settles over the waters.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 500 am edt Tuesday...

flood statement for the nc zones along the albemarle sound has
been extended through noon. Water levels peaked yesterday but
have been slow to fall and with some residual flooding still
ongoing have extended the statement to cover the rest of this
morning.

Some increasing tidal anomalies are expected over the next day
into the bay out ahead of a strong cold front. Minor flooding
with the high tide Wed aftn will be possible into the upper bay
for places like lewisetta, bishops head (and potentially
crisfield and cambridge).

The rip current risk will be moderate over area beaches today
(this is the last srf issuance for the 2019 season).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon
for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Cmf
near term... Cmf
short term... Cmf
long term... Alb
aviation... Cmf
marine... Lkb tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 0 mi34 min 57°F 70°F1020.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 15 mi58 min N 1.9 58°F 1021 hPa54°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 17 mi58 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 60°F 70°F1019.5 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 26 mi58 min NNE 5.1 G 8 59°F 1019.8 hPa
44072 28 mi38 min E 16 G 18 66°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 30 mi58 min N 9.9 G 12 62°F 1018.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 31 mi58 min 71°F1019.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 33 mi58 min N 6 G 8 64°F 1019.3 hPa
44087 36 mi28 min 70°F1 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 38 mi58 min ENE 16 G 19 66°F 69°F1023.5 hPa
CHBV2 39 mi64 min N 14 G 15 66°F 1018.3 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 39 mi58 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 72°F1019.1 hPa
44064 40 mi38 min NNE 12 G 16 66°F 1019 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi58 min NNE 5.1 G 7 69°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi58 min N 11 G 13 66°F 1019.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi58 min NNE 17 G 19 1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA4 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair55°F55°F100%1020.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA10 mi92 minNNE 410.00 miFair58°F53°F85%1019.3 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA16 mi34 minNE 35.00 miFog/Mist54°F52°F93%1019.8 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA19 mi33 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist45°F42°F90%1020.2 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA22 mi33 minN 07.00 miFair46°F46°F100%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJGG

Wind History from JGG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Jamestown Island, James River, Virginia
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Jamestown Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:22 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:59 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:41 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.32.321.61.20.70.40.30.50.91.52.12.52.52.421.51.10.70.40.40.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hog Point, James River, Virginia
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Hog Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:39 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:58 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.42.21.81.30.80.40.30.50.91.52.12.52.72.62.21.71.20.70.40.40.71.11.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.