Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 7:35 AM   Moonset 11:22 PM

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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 335 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning - .
Through 7 am - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers. Today - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late in the morning, then becoming ne 5 to 10 kt early in the afternoon, becoming E late. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sun night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 335 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
elevated north to northeast winds will persist through this morning before diminishing. Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are then expected from tonight through at least Monday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 110718 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 318 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
A chance for showers continues across mainly northern areas this evening and tonight. Dry and warmer weather to start next week before another round of showers and storms move into the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Early morning analysis shows surface low pressure now well offshore with the trailing cold front off the SE NC coast. Aloft, the flow is generally NW in the wake of one shortwave trough with another noted upstream over the upper Midwest. Satellite observations show extensive cloud cover lingering across the eastern half of the area with some light echoes showing up on radar where drizzle or very light rain is falling. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s to low 50s and will fall a few more degrees before sunrise.

Expect decreasing clouds this morning for most of the area but thicker clouds and even some bay effect light rainfall are possible from Hampton Roads southward into NE NC. Partly sunny conditions are expected for most of the afternoon but clouds increase across the west as the next shortwave and weak surface reflection approach the area from the NW. Think most of the rainfall will hold off until after sunset. Forecast soundings show limited moisture in the post- frontal airmass but lift will be maximized across the northern third of the area and QPF ranging from 0.1-0.25" is forecast for these areas. Little, if any, instability is available tonight but could see a rumble of thunder across the Northern Neck into the MD Eastern Shore where ascent is maximized. Low temps tonight fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Showers linger across the northeast third of the area into Sunday as the upper trough axis moves through the region. Cooler temps aloft will allow for a bit deeper convection and have maintained a chance for thunder for the northern Ches Bay into the Eastern Shore Sunday afternoon. The remainder of the area will be dry with high temps ranging from the mid 70s SW and S to the mid/upper 60s NE. Drying out Sunday night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Warm and dry on Monday with temps in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Moisture increases from the SW Monday night with slight chance to chance PoPs spreading eastward after midnight. Overnight lows will be warmer with increasing clouds, generally a few degrees either side of 60.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday ahead of a deep southern stream trough. The local area will be solidly in the warm sector of this system with the potential for showers and storms across the western half of the area initially, spreading eastward in the afternoon.
Highs will be warmest across the eastern half of the area where precip will hold off longest. Highs around 70 degrees in the Piedmont with mid to upper 70s for areas east of I-95. Potential for continued showers and storms overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.

The upper low and surface reflection will be slow to cross the area Wednesday with continued chances for showers and storms.
Temperatures will be warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. High pressure builds in briefly on Thursday but another system approaches late in the week with another chance for scattered showers and storms. High temps remain in the 70s to low 80s with lows around 60.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Improving flying weather early this morning with VFR and MVFR CIGs at the TAF sites. Expect improvement to VFR at all terminals this morning but bay effect showers and marginal MVFR CIGs may linger at ORF and ECG through mid morning. N and NE winds 5-10 kt today will continue tonight. Another system approaches from the NW late today with renewed chances for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder tonight. Precip will be focused across the north with impacts primarily at SBY.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Sun across NE portions of the FA (including SBY). Dry conditions return Monday. Unsettled weather returns Tue-Wed as another low pressure system approaches the FA.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Bay, Lower James River, and Atlantic Ocean through the morning/afternoon.

-Prevailing sub-advisory conditions return by this evening, and are expected to persist through at least Monday.

Low pressure is now well offshore of the NC coast early this morning, with a weak ridge of high pressure to the NW of the waters.
Winds are NE at 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt, and seas are 5-7ft.
Winds quickly diminish later this morning through early aftn (to 5- 10kt) as the weak ridge of high pressure briefly settles over the waters. Seas should quickly fall below 5ft by late aftn (perhaps early evening across the srn coastal waters). SCAs run through 7-10 AM this morning for the bay, Lower James, and Currituck Sound, and through 1-4 PM this aftn for the coastal waters (due to lingering 5ft seas).

A secondary front tracks across the coast this evening-early tonight. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and then shifts to NW late tonight/early Sunday (with speeds remaining in that 10-15kt range). Local wind probabilities show a ~20% chc of sustained 18kt winds on the bay tonight-Sun, so will continue to monitor trends (but no additional SCAs will be issued attm). Winds veer back to the south and diminish to 5-10kt Sunday night into Monday as high pressure builds over the coast. Another low pressure system and weak cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, with low-end SCAs possible with S winds Tuesday evening-Tuesday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

-Key Messages:

-Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended through tonight/early Sunday AM for all areas adjacent to the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay.

-Minor to locally moderate tidal flooding (inundation of 1 to locally 2 feet above ground level in vulnerable areas) is expected during high tide tonight into early Sunday.

The elevated N-NE wind (along with a decent flood tide at the mouth of the bay) has allowed tidal anomalies to rise to ~1.5ft above normal. Combined with the high astronomical tides, this has resulted in widespread minor tidal flooding with a few sites briefly exceeding moderate flood thresholds. With winds becoming SE then S later today and tonight, tidal anomalies will fall in the lower Ches Bay and along the Atlantic coast, while rising a bit in the mid/upper bay. With today's high tide being the lower of the two astronomical tides, no worse than nuisance to locally minor tidal flooding is expected. However, widespread minor to locally moderate tidal flooding is expected tonight/early Sunday AM in the mid/upper bay, with nuisance flooding farther south. Have extended all Coastal Flood Advisories until Sunday AM from Mathews County north to Lewisetta in addition to the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. At this time, it looks like Lewisetta, Crisfield, and Bishop's Head stand the best chance of seeing (low-end) moderate flooding tonight.
Will monitor trends, but confidence is not high enough (and the event does not look to be widespread enough) to issue warnings attm.
May need a round of statements with perhaps a few advisories tonight- early Sun for areas near the lower bay/adjacent tidal rivers, but will allow the next shift to issue those.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ075-077.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ076-078- 085-086-521-522.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ089-090-093-096-099-100-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632>634.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.

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Jamestown Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:00 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:05 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:25 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:56 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jamestown Island, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Hog Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:17 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:07 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:42 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:58 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hog Point, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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