Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matoaca, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 854 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and mild night with lows in the lower 60s.

- Above average temperatures return Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

High pressure has settled off the East Coast this evening, while an area of low pressure is moving across the Great Lakes region. Our forecast area is wedged in between these two features, which has resulted in a tightened gradient. Southwesterly surface winds are between 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph this evening. Looking aloft, an upper ridge has planted itself over the Southeast.
Nighttime Microphysics is depicting mostly clear skies aside from some upper-level cirrus quickly transiting across the region.
Temperatures are still mild at this time and are hovering around the lower 70s (lower to mid 60s on the Eastern Shore). Dew points continue to rise as southerly flow advects in a more modified airmass and are generally in the lower 50s.

While winds will lighten a bit, occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph on land are expected overnight as the gradient remains tightened.
Temperatures will remain mild and are only forecast to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is well above normal for this time of year. The aforementioned low pressure system will drive northeastward into Eastern Canada and drag an attendant cold front across the Ohio River Valley and Southern Plains through tomorrow.
The surface and upper ridge will both remain in place across the Southeast, which will slow the progress of the front to a halt while continuing to pump in a very warm, moist airmass Saturday across our forecast area. Highs will peak in the mid to upper 80s (lower to mid 80s on the Eastern Shore). With the front stalling to the northwest, counties in piedmont and MD Eastern Shore will likely see the most cloud cover and coverage will wane farther SE for most of the day.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor front drops south and west Sunday leading to a wide range of temps across the area.

- Dry weather continues through Monday.

Ahead of the backdoor cold front temperatures Saturday night will continue to be mild with lows reaching down into the lower to middle 60s. The backdoor cold front will eventually make it to our area by Sunday. There continues to remain some uncertainty on how far the front will advance. Regardless of the details, it will be cooler across the NE portions of the area and warmer SW. With some of the latest guidance that has come in temperatures across the coast are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. While further inland and across the south temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and possibly middle 80s further south and west. Temperatures Sunday night will be slightly cooler especially across the Eastern shore with their lows in the lower 50s. While across VA/NC lows will be in the middle to upper 50s. The stalled front over the are will lift Monday and warmer temperatures will return for most of the area, except possibly the Maryland Eastern Shore. Highs Monday will be in the lower to middle 80s across VA/NC and lower 70s across the northern Neck and Eastern Shore. There is also the possibility of upper 60s as highs across the Eastern Shore, However, confidence is low at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures with possible afternoon and evening showers.

Upper air ridging will set up over Florida, while surface low pressure will move northeastward from the Central Plains early next week. The cold front associated with this low pressure system will pass through the region late Monday/early Tuesday. This front will be relatively weak, but could bring a few showers as early as Monday evening to the northern half of the CWA, with the higher PoPs (still only 30-45%) for the majority of the area on Tuesday. The front will stall over the Carolinas resulting in chance of showers and isolated storms Wednesday for the southern half of the CWA

Above average temperatures will continue, despite the weak cold front. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s (cooler on the Eastern Shore) with lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 125 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF 06z TAF period. SW winds continue to be gusty early this morning despite the unfavorable diurnal timing. LLWS has been included at all sites through 09 or 10z this morning. SW winds ~15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt continue through the day today before decreasing a bit this evening. Guidance suggests there will be another stint of LLWS at SBY late in the forecast period. Not much moisture evident on forecast soundings but a few CU could form this afternoon near ECG.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue this weekend. The next shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

MARINE
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase through this evening, and remain elevated through Saturday. SCAs are in effect for much of the marine area.

Latest analysis reveals broad 1025+mb high pressure lingering offshore of the mid-Atlantic/Carolina this afternoon. To the northwest, deepening low pressure was sliding east across the upper Great Lakes, with its associated cold front draped across the mid MS Valley. The preceding warm front continues to lift north across the mid-Atlantic region as of this writing, with the tightening pressure gradient out ahead of the Great Lakes low allowing for increasingly gusty SSE winds averaging 10-15 kt, with gusts to 20 kt already being observed in the lower Bay. Expect gusts to slowly increase in the bay, gradually turning SSW late this evening.
Less efficient mixing due to cool SSTs will be balanced by channeling over the bay and lower James River. Expect SW winds 15-20 kt overnight with gusts generally to 25 kt, but up to 30 kt where gradient is tightest across the northern coastal waters.

SCAs have been added for the Sound and Rappahannock Rivers to existing SCA over the Bay and lower rivers and go into effect this afternoon into this evening. Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions is still lower for the southern coastal waters where the pressure gradient will not be as strong. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft later today, with SSE wind wave also allowing seas to increase during this period with 2-4 ft expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-5 ft to the north.

Looking ahead, the cold front will struggle to make much progress into the local waters late Saturday into early Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes, but 12z guidance is coming into better agreement that the mainly dry frontal boundary does finally (slowly) drop south through Sunday. Could see a bit of a surge as this occurs, but for now the surge looks to be sub- SCA, as the front gradually weakens as it drops across the area.
Nonetheless, expect winds quickly veer from SSW to NE ~10-15 kt Sunday into Sunday aftn, then gradually shifting back to the SSE Monday with another warm front lifting through the region. A trailing cold front then approaches from the west, slowly crossing into the region late Monday into Tuesday, with SCA headlines potentially being needed over the Bay late Monday. The weak front then meanders across region Tuesday night through the middle of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634>638.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ654.