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FXUS66 KHNX 030834 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1234 AM PST Sun Dec 3 2023


SYNOPSIS
The next few mornings may be greeted by areas of Tule Fog, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings. As a cold front swings through the Pacific Northwest this week, afternoon temperatures will flirt with 70 degrees on Wednesday. Once the cold front crosses central California on Friday, maximum temperatures will struggle to 60 degrees along with gusty winds in the mountains.

DISCUSSION
Mainly dry conditions persist for the next few days. Valley fog will remain a possibility by daybreak, as well as on Monday and Tuesday mornings due to the persistence of high pressure ridging over Central California. The probability for dense fog (0.25 mile visibility or less) is no more than 30 percent, for locations mainly towards Merced, for later tonight into the early morning hours. The chances of dense fog rise to about 50 to 60 percent on Monday morning, though mainly for Fresno northward. Despite this slightly elevated potential for patchy dense fog in the Central Valley, a warming trend is in store until the middle of the week.
High temperatures peak on Wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching the Pac NW. Highs will be mainly in the 60's at the warmest spots until Tuesday, and temperatures have a moderate chance of reaching 70 degrees by Wednesday. The best chance for a high near 70 degrees is on Wednesday, including in the Central Valley. Probabilities range from around 30 to 60 percent for this particular temperature threshold on this day.

Later this week, we expect the next opportunity for precipitation, albeit light, on Thursday into Friday. A slight chance of rain is in store for much of the San Joaquin Valley with better chances in the Sierra Nevada. The probability of at least a hundredth of an inch in the SJ Valley is currently at around 20 to 30 percent for both Thursday and Friday, although this probability range lines up for Merced to receive at least 0.10 inch. As for the mountains, the probability for any measurable precipitation is 20 percent in the Kern County mountains and as high as 50 percent for the Sierra Nevada while highest in Yosemite. The chance for at least 0.25 inch of precipitation is closer to the 30 percent range in Yosemite and gradually lowers to less than 10 percent towards the Grapevine. Right now, we're seeing snow levels lowering to 5,000 feet on Thursday night into Friday morning in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains. Based on the projected precipitation amounts, impacts due to precipitation will likely be minor and typical for this time of year. However, the potential for gusty winds will exist behind the cold front by Friday at the usual prone areas of eastern Kern County.

For next weekend, temperatures lower back towards seasonal averages, though will struggle to top 60 degrees in the warmest locations. Overnight lows have a good chance (50-75 percent) of reaching freezing once again in the SJ Valley, outside of Bakersfield and Fresno (although it's about a 25 percent chance for Fresno).


AVIATION
MVFR visibility expected overnight with light winds in the SJ Valley. If IFR conditions due to fog occur, they would develop mainly north of Fresno around 13Z-16Z Sunday; latest model guidance suggests up to a 30 percent chance. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions across the Central California interior for the next 24 hours.



AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/02/2023 13:04 EXPIRES: 12/03/2023 23:59 On Sunday December 3 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings and Merced Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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