Big Creek, CA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Creek, CA

June 18, 2024 1:32 AM PDT (08:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM
Moonrise 5:28 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Creek, CA
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Area Discussion for - San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA
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FXUS66 KHNX 172110 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 210 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024


KEY MESSAGES

1. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for strong gusty winds coupled with low relative humidity that will bring Elevated Fire Weather concerns to the Kern County mountains, West Hills and the San Joaquin Valley through Tuesday morning at 8am.

2. A cooling trend will bottom out today as temperatures will be around 3 to 5 degrees below normal.

3. Strong to damaging wind gusts will continue along the Mojave Desert Slopes through Tonight. Late afternoon and evening breezes will also continue across the San Joaquin Valley with locally gusty conditions near the passes of the West Side Mountains through Tuesday morning at 5am.

4. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along rivers and waterways.

5. Starting Tuesday a warming trend will begin with triple digits anticipated starting Friday lasting through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

A disturbance continues to cross Central California with widespread strong winds and very dry air. This set-up has prompted the issuance of Products for elevated fire concerns.
These products cover much of the district and even into the Kern County Mountains. Fire starts are very susceptible to the current state of the atmosphere over Central California along with a lot of dust being picked up from the strong winds. One bright-side is the cooling of temperatures today as Max temperatures only reach into the upper 80s. Peak cooling and strong winds will occur on Today, followed by a slow warming trend for much of the week along with a 30-60 percent chance of reaching heat-wave categories by next weekend.

High-Res Short-Range Ensemble mean temperature and wind analysis still showing the continuation of cooler air surging into Central California. Ensemble Mean Max Temperature analysis for today is keeping less then 15 percent Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of having the San Joaquin Valley temperatures break 90. With 24 hour temperature trend down by 3 to 6 degrees, confidence remains high in allowing for below normal Max temperatures. At the same time, the cooler air and upper level winds will support very strong winds today. While a 30 to 50 percent chance of widespread 35 mph gusts exist, local gusts in Kern County and the West Side of the valley reach percentages of 70 to 90 percent PoE. Over the same area, PoE of over 55 mph only drops to 50 percent. Therefore, a very windy night ahead before winds diminish on Tuesday. With these conditions, a Red Flag Warning will remain in place for valley and foothill elevations (along with the Kern County Mountains) until 8 AM PDT on Tuesday.

Longer-range ensemble upper-air analysis maintains a cooler temperature solution for much of the period before changing gears next Friday. While PoE in reaching 100 degrees does rise to 20-40 percent, PoE struggles to push pass the century mark.
The upper-air pattern finally favors the the heat-wave scenario during the weekend. It is during this same time that PoE of having temperatures reach 105 and above ranges between 30 to 50 percent. With percentages reaching near 50 percent on Day 5 and 6 adds confidence in achieving criteria. Days 8 (Monday) does show a drop in PoE to around 30 percent, yet, the trend shows increasing confidence as the uncertainty in the event lowers in the longer-range ensemble solutions.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will result in chances for blowing dust in the Kern County Desert and West Side Hills through late this afternoon and evening. Additionally, reduced visibility will result around and near any fires.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.
Red Flag Warning until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ579-580-596-597.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMMH34 sm17 minW 0910 smClear37°F7°F27%30.07
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San Joaquin Valley, CA,




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