Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Petersburg, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 906 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- High clouds and southeast to south flow will keep temperatures mild overnight.

- Much warmer day Friday as high pressure slides offshore.

Another quiet evening is ongoing across the forecast area, with high pressure off the NC coast still dominating the region. Winds have already decoupled, and land-based observation sites are generally measuring light and variable winds. Winds closer to the coast are a little stronger and from the southeast to south. An upper ridge to our northwest is pushing some high clouds across the area, making for partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are in upper 40s to lower to mid 50s. For tonight, the southeast to south winds and partly cloudy skies will create a less favorable environment for radiational cooling. Temperatures will be much more mild overnight, only dropping into the lower to mid 40s (mid to upper 40s SE VA and NE NC).

Winds will become south to southwest on Friday as the aforementioned high shifts further offshore. The gradient between the high and a low pressure system near the Great Lakes region will tighten considerably starting tomorrow morning, leading to an increase in winds. Gusts as high as 20-25 mph (25-30 mph on the Eastern Shore)
are expected by tomorrow afternoon. The airmass across our area will modify further tomorrow thanks to the southerly flow ushering in higher dew points and temperatures. Temperatures will be above normal for this time of year reaching 75-80F in most communities (near normal on the Eastern Shore in the upper 60s). All in all, another quiet, warm day is on tap for the local area for Friday.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry with warming temperatures through the weekend.

The upper ridge axis slides over the US East Coast late Friday into Saturday. Breezy SW winds continue the warming trend, owing to the tightening pressure gradient between the Bermuda Ridge offshore and a cold front well to the W. Temperatures Friday night will be mild for this time of year with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Saturday will be the warmest day of the weekend as high are progged to reach into the middle to upper 80s. The breezy conditions are expected to lower Saturday but sustained winds will still be between 10 to 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20mph. Lows Saturday will be in the middle 60s. Saturday night a cold front will move south and will stall over much of the area on Sunday causing a decent temperature gradient across the area. Temperatures Sunday will be in the lower to middle 80s across the south and upper 70s to lower 80s across the north. Lows for Sunday will be back into the upper 50s as the cold front moves across the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 320 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- The next cold front approaches the area Tuesday with chances for showers.

- Above average temperatures continue through the rest of the forecast period.

High pressure off the Carolina coast continues to be pushed further offshore as a low pressure system moves eastward from the Great Plains. The cold front associated with this system continues to appear weak with lower confidence for precip across the area.
Ensemble models have trended the timing of this system to be slower, with the front now moving through the area Tuesday. GEFS and EPS only have 30-40% probabilities of 0.1" or greater of QPF for the area. This weak front likely won't cause the temperatures to dip down much as high pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday, with above average temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the majority of the area (slightly cooler on the Eastern Shore) through the extended period. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Remaining mostly dry through much of the remainder of the forecast period, with the next chances of rain likely not until late in the week or the following weekend.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Some SCT/BKN cirrus is noted on satellite imagery streaming in from the NW. Generally light and variable winds through sunrise become S or SSW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt from mid morning through the afternoon. Forecast soundings shows some moisture at the top of the mixed layer so FEW/SCT CU are possible for all but SBY where moisture is lower. Guidance shows the potential for widespread LLWS across the region just after the 06z forecast period. Have included LLWS at SBY late in the forecast for now.

Outlook: LLWS is possible at all terminals late tonight.
VFR/dry conditions continue through the end of the week.
Remaining mostly dry through the weekend. The next shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase on Friday and continue into Saturday ahead of the next cold front.

Latest analysis reveals broad 1024+mb high pressure in place over the eastern seaboard this afternoon. Winds were light and variable, but averaged NNE ~5-8 kt. Waves 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Mainly benign conditions across the waters this evening with high pressure overhead, then sliding offshore on Friday. S-SW flow slowly increases Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon in association with tightening pressure gradient ahead of a warm front lifting through the local area, as low pressure lifts across the Great Lakes. Local wind probs continue to indicate high confidence for SCA conditions for the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters during this period with winds ramping up to 15-20 kt Friday afternoon and evening, with gusts to 25 kt (30 kt gusts possible across the northern coastal waters), and a SCA has been issued in these areas. Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions is lower for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound where the pressure gradient will not be as strong, so will continue to cap winds just below SCA thresholds. Confidence has increased enough to add in the James River tomorrow evening into Sat afternoon, but will hold out the remaining rivers for now with confidence of SCA winds there a bit lower. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft along with the winds by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, with SSE wind wave also allowing seas to increase during this period with 2-4 ft expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-6 ft to the north.

The cold front will struggle to make inroads toward the local waters late Saturday into Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to return for Sunday into early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ637-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.