Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Water, UT
January 24, 2025 1:54 AM MST (08:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:40 AM Sunset 5:48 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM Moonset 1:03 PM |
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Area Discussion for Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 232304 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 404 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
Northern mountain snow is likely Friday as a storm system tracks into the western U.S. As it approaches Utah, a cold front will track in from the north Friday into Saturday with valley and mountain snow. The storm system will track into the southwest, with northern snow tapering off into Sunday. Snow is likely for much of southern Utah through the weekend into next week.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 404 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
Northern mountain snow is likely Friday as a storm system tracks into the western U.S. As it approaches Utah, a cold front will track in from the north Friday into Saturday with valley and mountain snow. The storm system will track into the southwest, with northern snow tapering off into Sunday. Snow is likely for much of southern Utah through the weekend into next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Sunday/5PM Saturday)...A dry northerly synoptic flow has been in place throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah with ridging in the eastern Pacific. A longwave trough north of the ridge will dig into the western U.S. into Friday. That trough will bring snow to southwest Wyoming and Utah in multiple parts through the weekend into next week.
The first portion of the storm will be relatively light isolated to scattered mountain snow showers from Friday afternoon into Saturday associated with weak warm air advection and enhanced west to southwest flow. Mountain snow totals will be relatively light through that, with locally higher accumulations with upslope orographic enhancement from the west to southwest.
As the trough tracks southward Friday into Saturday, a baroclinic zone will track into southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Mountain snow rates will increase, with valley snow more likely with the boundary. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the front will nearly stall as the trough to the west becomes a closed low.
The main uncertainty is where the boundary will nearly stall. For valley locations with snowfall only as the front tracks through, snowfall will generally be less than one inch, but accumulations would be enhanced near where the boundary is positioned for a longer time. Total accumulations would depend on time and snowfall rates for locations with enhanced rates, which confidence will increase with more hi-res data. The most likely range for that is from roughly Salt Lake City to Provo, northeast into southwest Wyoming and the western Uinta Mountains, and southwest into western Juab and Millard counties.
The cold front will diminish Saturday into Sunday along with snow associated with it as a closed low sets up to the southwest.
Largely dry conditions are likely into next week for southwest Wyoming and much of Utah. Precipitation will primarily be associated with the closed low in southern Utah.
.LONG TERM (After 00Z Sunday/5PM Saturday)...Key takeaways for the long-term forecast are as follows:
* Snowfall chances will gradually diminish throughout the day on Sunday across southwest Wyoming, northern Utah, and central Utah, with chances for light snow across southern Utah continuing into next week.
* Some uncertainty remains regarding how long the precipitation will last across southern Utah. Lower Washington county may see minor snow accumulations with around 20-30% chances of >1" on Monday.
An upper ridge will continue to push west across the Pacific Northwest late Saturday evening into Sunday morning following an upper trough sliding down across California. This upper ridge will serve to pinch off a lobe of vorticity which will spin up into a cutoff mid/upper low over north/central California. The cutoff low will meander east across the Desert Southwest before phasing into generally zonal continental flow later in the week.
The aforementioned upper cutoff low will serve to push ample moisture across Utah and southwest Wyoming coupled with just enough dynamics for some snowfall across the forecast area. Snowfall will likely be ongoing across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming as a cold front continues to push through the area late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Snowfall totals across the Wasatch front continue to increase ever so slightly due to a slight uptick in available moisture and a more northerly surface wind component, particularly across the valley. Some canyon winds across the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley may be possible around the start of the period, particularly through Saturday evening into Sunday morning as 700mb winds maintain an easterly component before quickly switching to southerly by Sunday morning.
There still remains some uncertainty regarding QPF across southern Utah as how this event unfolds relies heavily on how long the upper low meanders across the Desert Southwest. Ensemble means continue to carry the upper low through the Desert Southwest quite slow resulting in PoPs greater than 20% generally lasting through early Wednesday. This is due to upper moisture wrapping around the backside of the low into our southern and central Utah zones.
Easterly surface flow becoming southerly throughout the day Saturday with a cold and moist airmass aloft may result in a trace snow for St. George with rain mixed in initially. Additionally, there is a 20- 30% chance that St. George could also see an inch of snow from this system.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail for the KSLC terminal through the period. Light southerly flow will mostly persist through the overnight period with brief periods of light northerly winds possible (30% chance) through sunset. Conditions will remain dry with mid and high clouds increasing overnight.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will persist for the airspace throughout the period. Dry conditions will continue with mid and high clouds increasing across the north overnight.
Moisture starts to move into the far northern airspace by late morning tomorrow. Winds will remain light and variable areawide.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
The first portion of the storm will be relatively light isolated to scattered mountain snow showers from Friday afternoon into Saturday associated with weak warm air advection and enhanced west to southwest flow. Mountain snow totals will be relatively light through that, with locally higher accumulations with upslope orographic enhancement from the west to southwest.
As the trough tracks southward Friday into Saturday, a baroclinic zone will track into southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Mountain snow rates will increase, with valley snow more likely with the boundary. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the front will nearly stall as the trough to the west becomes a closed low.
The main uncertainty is where the boundary will nearly stall. For valley locations with snowfall only as the front tracks through, snowfall will generally be less than one inch, but accumulations would be enhanced near where the boundary is positioned for a longer time. Total accumulations would depend on time and snowfall rates for locations with enhanced rates, which confidence will increase with more hi-res data. The most likely range for that is from roughly Salt Lake City to Provo, northeast into southwest Wyoming and the western Uinta Mountains, and southwest into western Juab and Millard counties.
The cold front will diminish Saturday into Sunday along with snow associated with it as a closed low sets up to the southwest.
Largely dry conditions are likely into next week for southwest Wyoming and much of Utah. Precipitation will primarily be associated with the closed low in southern Utah.
.LONG TERM (After 00Z Sunday/5PM Saturday)...Key takeaways for the long-term forecast are as follows:
* Snowfall chances will gradually diminish throughout the day on Sunday across southwest Wyoming, northern Utah, and central Utah, with chances for light snow across southern Utah continuing into next week.
* Some uncertainty remains regarding how long the precipitation will last across southern Utah. Lower Washington county may see minor snow accumulations with around 20-30% chances of >1" on Monday.
An upper ridge will continue to push west across the Pacific Northwest late Saturday evening into Sunday morning following an upper trough sliding down across California. This upper ridge will serve to pinch off a lobe of vorticity which will spin up into a cutoff mid/upper low over north/central California. The cutoff low will meander east across the Desert Southwest before phasing into generally zonal continental flow later in the week.
The aforementioned upper cutoff low will serve to push ample moisture across Utah and southwest Wyoming coupled with just enough dynamics for some snowfall across the forecast area. Snowfall will likely be ongoing across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming as a cold front continues to push through the area late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Snowfall totals across the Wasatch front continue to increase ever so slightly due to a slight uptick in available moisture and a more northerly surface wind component, particularly across the valley. Some canyon winds across the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley may be possible around the start of the period, particularly through Saturday evening into Sunday morning as 700mb winds maintain an easterly component before quickly switching to southerly by Sunday morning.
There still remains some uncertainty regarding QPF across southern Utah as how this event unfolds relies heavily on how long the upper low meanders across the Desert Southwest. Ensemble means continue to carry the upper low through the Desert Southwest quite slow resulting in PoPs greater than 20% generally lasting through early Wednesday. This is due to upper moisture wrapping around the backside of the low into our southern and central Utah zones.
Easterly surface flow becoming southerly throughout the day Saturday with a cold and moist airmass aloft may result in a trace snow for St. George with rain mixed in initially. Additionally, there is a 20- 30% chance that St. George could also see an inch of snow from this system.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail for the KSLC terminal through the period. Light southerly flow will mostly persist through the overnight period with brief periods of light northerly winds possible (30% chance) through sunset. Conditions will remain dry with mid and high clouds increasing overnight.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will persist for the airspace throughout the period. Dry conditions will continue with mid and high clouds increasing across the north overnight.
Moisture starts to move into the far northern airspace by late morning tomorrow. Winds will remain light and variable areawide.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBCE
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBCE
Wind History Graph: BCE
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southern Rockies
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