Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Water, UT
December 4, 2023 11:38 AM MST (18:38 UTC)
Sunrise 7:29AM Sunset 5:15PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 12:55PM
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 041016 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 316 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build back into the region later today into Tuesday. Another series of storm systems lines up for the second half of the week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...The last of the weak shortwave disturbances is exiting to the east this morning while high pressure builds upstream. The deep moisture associated with an atmospheric river has now cut off, leaving mainly low/mid level moisture in place and lingering weak showers along/near the mountains of northern Utah. These showers are not expected to be very productive, so have cancelled the remaining Winter Storm Warning. With increasing stabilization aloft through the day, the moisture in place will likely aid in the maintenance of stratus across mainly northern Utah valleys today. Otherwise, the airmass remains on the mild side, although any stratus will prevent significant warming.
That said, afternoon max temperatures 5-10 degrees above climatological normals are forecast.
Clouds are are currently forecast to clear a bit tonight. If this does occur, there will be a potential for fog development in some northern valley locales given continued low-level moisture, including in climatologically prone area such as the Cache Valley, Bear River Valley, and Wasatch Back.
As the upper ridge shifts into Utah tomorrow and H7 temperatures continue to trend warmer, expect valley inversions to strengthen. As such, valley temperatures are expected to trend a bit cooler.
Questionable how much cloud cover will linger into tomorrow, especially along the Wasatch Front. However, HRRR ensemble means suggest a high likelihood of stratus lingering at least across the northwest deserts.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Wednesday)...An axis from a strong ridge of high pressure will be positioned to the east Wednesday. With a shortwave trough off the coast of California that will push inland through the day, a southwest pressure gradient will enhance. Models have 700 mb flow for Utah peaking around 30 knots Wednesday, but winds will not mix fully for valleys with inversions. Temperatures will range from around 5-15F warmer than climo, with the biggest differences at higher elevations.
The aforementioned shortwave will track into Utah Thursday. It is expected to bring the most cooling, flow, and forcing to northern Utah, which should be enough to mix inversions. Light valley rain below 5000 ft. and higher elevation snow is likely. Snow accumulation will be light. Models and ensembles are in agreement on a colder trough digging into southwest Wyoming and Utah Friday.
The most disagreement is with precise timing, but Thursday into Friday is most likely. Many ensemble members have a slightly weaker trough compared to prior runs, but cooling and dynamics for valley and mountain snow are likely. Valleys will likely get some rainfall at the beginning of the event, but rain will transition to snow. It is likely that Friday will bring the most precipitation throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah. Light snowfall accumulation is expected for valleys, but mountain snowfall will be in excess of 1 ft. for some locations. Southward extent of snow will be into the central mountains, with much lighter snowfall accumulations. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal Friday, with a cold Saturday as clearer conditions build in with ridging likely through the weekend.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast, but low stratus clouds are likely much of the day with mountain obscuration. Clouds will clear into the evening. Light southeast winds will prevail through the day.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Fog and low stratus clouds with MVFR or lower ceilings and visibility will last much of the morning at KLGU, KHCR, and KEVW. Clouds and fog will lift through the morning, but mountain obscuration is likely through the day throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Clearing conditions are likely into the evening.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 316 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build back into the region later today into Tuesday. Another series of storm systems lines up for the second half of the week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...The last of the weak shortwave disturbances is exiting to the east this morning while high pressure builds upstream. The deep moisture associated with an atmospheric river has now cut off, leaving mainly low/mid level moisture in place and lingering weak showers along/near the mountains of northern Utah. These showers are not expected to be very productive, so have cancelled the remaining Winter Storm Warning. With increasing stabilization aloft through the day, the moisture in place will likely aid in the maintenance of stratus across mainly northern Utah valleys today. Otherwise, the airmass remains on the mild side, although any stratus will prevent significant warming.
That said, afternoon max temperatures 5-10 degrees above climatological normals are forecast.
Clouds are are currently forecast to clear a bit tonight. If this does occur, there will be a potential for fog development in some northern valley locales given continued low-level moisture, including in climatologically prone area such as the Cache Valley, Bear River Valley, and Wasatch Back.
As the upper ridge shifts into Utah tomorrow and H7 temperatures continue to trend warmer, expect valley inversions to strengthen. As such, valley temperatures are expected to trend a bit cooler.
Questionable how much cloud cover will linger into tomorrow, especially along the Wasatch Front. However, HRRR ensemble means suggest a high likelihood of stratus lingering at least across the northwest deserts.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Wednesday)...An axis from a strong ridge of high pressure will be positioned to the east Wednesday. With a shortwave trough off the coast of California that will push inland through the day, a southwest pressure gradient will enhance. Models have 700 mb flow for Utah peaking around 30 knots Wednesday, but winds will not mix fully for valleys with inversions. Temperatures will range from around 5-15F warmer than climo, with the biggest differences at higher elevations.
The aforementioned shortwave will track into Utah Thursday. It is expected to bring the most cooling, flow, and forcing to northern Utah, which should be enough to mix inversions. Light valley rain below 5000 ft. and higher elevation snow is likely. Snow accumulation will be light. Models and ensembles are in agreement on a colder trough digging into southwest Wyoming and Utah Friday.
The most disagreement is with precise timing, but Thursday into Friday is most likely. Many ensemble members have a slightly weaker trough compared to prior runs, but cooling and dynamics for valley and mountain snow are likely. Valleys will likely get some rainfall at the beginning of the event, but rain will transition to snow. It is likely that Friday will bring the most precipitation throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah. Light snowfall accumulation is expected for valleys, but mountain snowfall will be in excess of 1 ft. for some locations. Southward extent of snow will be into the central mountains, with much lighter snowfall accumulations. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal Friday, with a cold Saturday as clearer conditions build in with ridging likely through the weekend.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast, but low stratus clouds are likely much of the day with mountain obscuration. Clouds will clear into the evening. Light southeast winds will prevail through the day.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Fog and low stratus clouds with MVFR or lower ceilings and visibility will last much of the morning at KLGU, KHCR, and KEVW. Clouds and fog will lift through the morning, but mountain obscuration is likely through the day throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Clearing conditions are likely into the evening.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
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