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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 952 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely late this evening and early morning, then a slight chance of rain late. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Areas of fog early in the morning. Patchy fog late in the morning. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.

ANZ600 952 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure will remain centered offshore into this weekend. Additionally, a few weak areas of low pressure are likely to affect the region over the next few days. A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday with low pressure tracking through the great lakes region. A cold front then crosses the area later Sunday into Monday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 020246 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 946 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley through tonight pulling a warm front through the region. This will bring spotty light rain into the local area. Another chance for rain is expected later Saturday into Saturday night as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Mainly dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 945 PM EST Friday...

A warm front has lifted through roughly the southeastern third of the forecast, with its current location from roughly Emporia to Wakefield to Williamsburg and up the southern Eastern Shore.
South and southeast of the front, temperatures are quite mild and range from the upper 50s to mid 60s (mid to upper 60s southside Hampton Roads into northeast North Carolina). North and northwest, temperatures are in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The front will likely be stubborn to move much further NW through the overnight hours (typical of this time of the year), with temperatures staying nearly steady or rising a degree or two through the night. Light rain lingers across the eastern half of the area, with some more steady rain over the Eastern Shore.
The light rain will push offshore later tonight into early Saturday morning.

In the immediate vicinity of the front, will have to watch closely for the potential for dense fog formation with many of the high- res models indicating this fog potential along the aforementioned front location. Patchy fog will be possible across the remainder of the forecast area, especially as we approach sunrise.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

A southern stream area of low pressure will track NE from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night bringing a better potential for a more substantial rain (0.25-0.5" possible) across the area later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Likely PoPs (60-70%) are forecast at this time. Low pressure will push out to sea Sunday followed by a cold frontal passage Sunday evening into Sunday night. Milder temperatures are expected both Saturday and Sunday, despite the rain (especially Saturday). Highs will range through the 60s both days. However, if enough clearing/drying can occur Sunday far SE VA/NE NC could rise into the lower 70s Sunday. Lows will range through the 50s to around 60F Saturday night, and through the 40s to around 50F Sunday night. A shortwave trough approaches from the W Monday. Moisture will be limited, but the trough is rather vigorous, so at least an increase in clouds are expected, with a limited chc of showers.
Highs will still be above normal Monday ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

The shortwave trough swings across the area Monday night with limited moisture. Dry weather is expected for Tuesday/Tuesday evening, as high pressure builds across the region. Another shortwave trough will swing across the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and could produce a few showers. Then, high pressure will build into and over the region for late Wednesday night through Thursday. Cooler than normal temps are expected for Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the trough.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 700 PM EST Friday...

Deteriorating flight conditions are expected through the 00z/02 TAF period. A warm front, currently located just south of the area, will gradually lift to the northeast before likely stalling across the area Saturday morning. As a result, low level moisture increases tonight with dropping CIGs and chances for fog and drizzle/light rain. VFR conditions at all sites to start the period, but expect MVFR CIGs to develop over the next 1-2 hours at RIC/SBY, and eventually spreading to all sites. IFR CIGs then develop ~05-06z at SBY and spreads to the other sites through the early morning hours. Finally, MVFR to IFR VSBY restrictions will be possible, especially as we reach the ~11 to 12z timeframe (best potential for IFR at PHF, ORF, SBY). CIGs slowly lift later Saturday morning with generally MVFR CIGs by Saturday afternoon.

Outlook:Low pressure approaches from the SW later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night bringing light rain and degraded flight conditions with another round of IFR/MVFR conditions likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Some improvement is expected by Sunday afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Sunday night through Wednesday, with upper level disturbances bringing some clouds and a slight chance of showers Monday afternoon and late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

MARINE
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

This afternoon, high pressure is centered well offshore with low pressure tracking slowly ENE from MO/IL into the Great Lakes region. Obs show southerly winds are generally 5-10 kt, with 10-15 kt over the central and northern coastal waters. Seas are 2-3 ft with waves 1 ft or less. Into this evening, winds are likely to briefly increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt N of Parramore Island. Given the short duration and seas expected to be just below 5 ft, will not issue any SCAs at this time.
S-SW winds then turn light for the day Saturday as a frontal boundary and weak low pressure lift N. This may briefly turn the winds onshore (E-SE direction) N of Cape Charles for a period late Sat/early Sun. Winds then turn back around to S-SW for most of Sunday. A cold front crosses the area Sunday evening with W-NW winds increasing to 15-20 kt (highest over the coastal waters) Monday night behind the front. Overall, most areas should stay sub-SCA. Widespread SCA conditions are not forecast until next Wednesday-Thursday behind another (stronger) cold front, with NW winds potentially increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt.

As mentioned before, seas may briefly approach 5 ft late tonight. However, most areas are likely to remain 3-4 ft. Waves will remain 1- 2 ft. Seas and waves of 2-3 and 1-2 ft ft, respectively, are forecast later Sat into the middle of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Gloucester Point
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Fri -- 05:18 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:49 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:21 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gloucester Point, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

Browns Bay
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Fri -- 05:14 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:28 AM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:15 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:50 PM EST     2.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Browns Bay, Mobjack Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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