Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gloucester Point, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 700 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Breezy and warm this evening with wind gusts of around 20 mph expected.

- Cooler Monday with breezy WNW winds gusting to ~30 mph.

The latest WX analysis indicates a potent upper low digging SSE from the upper midwest, leading to a deepening sfc low pressure (~1004mb) moving east across western PA this aftn. The trailing cold front extends SW from that sfc low into the lower OH/TN Valley. A broad area of sfc high pressure is centered along the Gulf coast, creating a rather strong pressure gradient over the eastern CONUS.

Winds have calmed down a bit from this afternoons. The airmass in the lee of the Appalachians remains very dry with dew pts ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s and BUFKIT soundings show no moisture below 15-20k ft into this evening so any showers/storms approaching from the N and W in advance of the cold front look to dry up before reaching the CWA The sky is mostly clear with just some high clouds and will become partly cloudy on average later tonight. The only place where there may be just enough moisture for a sprinkle or brief showers will be across the MD eastern shore near the coast overnight/early Monday. Temperatures will be rather warm for mid October tonight, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

On Monday, the cold front looks to push through the local area from NW to SE primarily during the morning hrs, and pushing off the coast by early aftn. Pressure rises in the wake of the front combined with cool, dry air will lead to good mixing and breezy to windy conditions once again. With sunshine returning, highs Monday will still be quite warm over the SE portion of the CWA (mid to upper 70s) as the colder air aloft lags farther to the NW. It will be cooler across the W/NW portions of the FA with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Will mention dry and breezy conditions with low RH values in the Fire WX Forecast discussion but did not issue an SPS at this time as it appears marginal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Cooler and drier weather through the middle of this week as a cold front pass through the region Monday afternoon.

A deep upper trough aloft continues to dig across the eastern United States Tuesday. Further north at the surface a strong surface low will continue to move northeast across portions of New England and northern Canada. A strong cold front associated with this system will move through the area Tuesday. Latest model guidance does also hint on a strong shortwave moving through the area at the same time as the cold front. With both the front, shortwave, and upper level low over the region a small chance of pops (15-20%) have been introduced into the forecast for Tuesday. Some of the high res Cams have also hinted on some light sprinkles/showers Tuesday. Then by Wednesday a strong surface high will move over the area keeping the the weather dry. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows for Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Then for Wednesday as the high moves over the area lows will be in the upper and middle 30s along the coast and lower 30s across the Piedmont. There is also the possibility for patchy frost across the piedmont Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Dry with below normal highs for Thursday-Friday, but by the weekend highs will make their way back to normal.

Latest ensemble guidance suggest a strong ridge will move over all of the eastern United States by the end of this week. While at the surface a strong high pressure (1030mb+) will continue to make its way down from Canada and will set up shop across much of the east coast keeping the area dry. This high pressure will allow temperatures to slightly warm up back to normal across the area and demolish any chance of precipitation. Right now, the chances of pops remain below 10% for the entire extended period. Sky cover during this time period will be quite pleasant with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the area. Temperatures will truly start to feel like fall as highs for Thursday will rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Then Friday through Sunday high temperatures will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. As for lows, Thursday and Friday night lows will be in the middle to upper 30s across the Piedmont and lower 40s across the coast. Then by Saturday lows in the lower middle 40s and Sunday upper 40s and lower 50s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 700 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through Monday. SW winds will average 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Have LLWS in most of the TAFs from about 02/03Z-08/09Z as a strong low level jet of 40-45kt moves overhead.

Outlook: VFR and (mainly) dry conditions will continue through the middle of this week (a few light showers are possible Tue aftn/evening). NW winds prevail Tue-Wed and remain breezy.
Lighter winds late in the week as high pressure settles into the region.

MARINE
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- An extended period of Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Monday due to a strong cold front passage.

- A few gusts to 35 kt are possible around midnight tonight.

- Another cold front crosses the area Tuesday night or early Wednesday, with additional Small Craft Advisories possible.

Observations are showing gradually increasing/gusty SW winds across the waters this afternoon, with winds in the 10-20 kt range as of this writing. This is in response to a tightening pressure gradient between a low pressure system to our NW over wrn PA/ern OH and high pressure along the Gulf coast. Waves in the bay/sound/rivers and seas on the coastal waters have also gradually risen to 1-2 ft and 3- 4 ft, respectively. As of this update, have elected to start all small craft advisories as criteria should be met for most areas by the early evening. The low will advance eastward this evening and tonight, deepening to near or just below 1000 mb as it enters into the nrn Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. This will drag a cold front across the waters early Monday. Ahead of the front this evening and tonight, SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. There is likely to be a ~6 hr period (probably between 02-08z/10 PM-4 AM) where winds become locally enhanced to 25-30 kt with some gusts upwards of 35 kt (as an H85 LLJ overspreads the area ahead of the front). Local wind probabilities and hi-res guidance show the coastal waters N of Cape Charles currently have the best chance for this (30-60%), though these higher gusts also cannot be ruled out on the Chesapeake Bay and southern coastal waters. Will handle with short-fused/convective special marine warnings instead of Gale warnings, as necessary.

The front crosses the area late tonight, near or just after sunrise Monday, with winds shifting to the W and then NW post- frontal. Winds remain elevated in the 15-25 kt range through most of Monday in the post-frontal/cold advection regime, with SCAs remaining in effect through this period. Deep mixing and W-WNW flow will also keep very gusty winds on the upper rivers, as well.
Winds finally look slacken to sub-SCA levels Tuesday. However, another front crosses the waters Tuesday night, with a reinforcing shot of CAA likely prompting another round of SCAs Tuesday night into Wednesday, and possibly through Wednesday night. Cool high pressure then builds in for the mid-late week period, with more benign marine conditions prevailing (under light N flow).

Building easterly swell (5-6 second periods) and SSW wind swell ramps seas up to 4-6 ft tonight through Monday, with some potential for ~7 ft seas across the nrn waters out 20 nm early Monday morning.
Waves in the bay are expected to average 2-4 ft from tonight through Monday. Waves/seas gradually ramp back down in offshore flow Monday night and especially Tuesday. Seas and waves potentially increase again to 3-4 ft Tue night-Wed night, though this is dependent on the timing of the elevated winds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634- 638-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633-635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.