Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Colonial Heights, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are expected later this aftn into tonight, particularly across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina (isolated strong to severe storms are possible).

A weak, slow moving cold front is situated near the northern/western border of the FA this afternoon with a parent low just N of the Great Lakes. This front does not have much in the way of upper air support without much of a trough behind it.
This front will pretty much stall out over the area this afternoon and will lead to the potential for some showers and thunderstorms, primarily for the southern portions of the area ahead of the front. A few storms have already initiated along the SW border of the FA as of latest radar. Scattered showers/storms will move into south/southeast portions of the area during the late afternoon and evening. There is the potential for a few storms to be strong to severe. Ahead of the boundary, effective shear is ~40kt. Sfc instability is up to 1500 J/kg over eastern portions of the area, but ML CAPE is lower at ~500 J/kg. Will note that there is over 1000 J/kg of DCAPE over NE NC, which increases confidence in the potential for damaging winds in any stronger storms. SPC has placed the NC portion of the FA in a marginal risk for severe weather with primary threats being damaging winds and large hail.

A shortwave will move in over the area overnight, aiding the front in moving south. Precip will increase in coverage for the SE late tonight (after midnight), and there is some uncertainty in the strength of these showers/storms. CAPE looks to only be around a few hundred J/kg, but the shear and forcing from the shortwave and front may be enough for isolated severe conditions.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday across the far southern portions of the area, then mainly dry Wednesday night into Thursday.

The model consensus for Wednesday is for shortwave energy to be pushing off the coast ~12Z, which should be sufficient to force the boundary farther to the south of the local area into central NC by aftn. Tomorrow has trended toward drying out faster, but have maintained chnc PoPs up to 40% for far SE portions of the area through mid-morning. Any lingering showers taper off by Wed evening. Highs will be cooler, especially near the coast with the onshore flow, ranging from the mid to upper 70s well inland, to the upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast(and locally only in the lower 60s for the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore). Mostly clear and cool Wed night with diminishing winds.
Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s inland, and ranging through 50s at the immediate coast. Partly- mostly sunny with near to slightly above avg temperatures Thursday with highs ranging from 75-80F inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast. A few showers may try to push into SW portions of the FA by aftn, but mainly dry elsewhere.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining warmer than average through Saturday with near normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

- Unsettled weather returns Friday into Saturday evening with the next system.

An upper level trough is forecast to amplify early this weekend over the Great Lakes, strengthening by late Saturday as it shifts over to the New England area. At the surface, a low pressure system will drag a warm front north across the area on Friday. With this front, isolated to scattered showers and afternoon storms are possible, particularly the western/northwestern portions of the CWA with 40- 50% PoPs. As the cold front approaches the area on Saturday, PoPs increase to 60-80% by Saturday afternoon. Widespread showers and a few storms are possible. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will continue to be above average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Behind the front, high pressure and an upper level ridge will return centered over the Great Lakes, keeping Sunday into early next week dry. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will return with highs near 70F inland (mid 60s near the coast) on Sunday and lower to mid 70s on Monday.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail to start the 18z/22 TAF period as a cold front slowly moves towards the area from the NW before stalling/weakening near the VA/NC state border overnight. Scattered to broken high clouds will continue ahead of the front this afternoon, along with light winds out of the SW. With the cold front, some showers and isolated storms are possible this evening, especially at ORF/PHF/ECG, starting around 23z/22-00z/23 and increasing in coverage through 08z/23. Behind the front, winds will shift to be NE 5-10kt, and with likely MVFR to IFR flight restrictions developing at ECG and ORF between 06-12z/23.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers are possible again Wednesday afternoon across far southern VA and NE NC, which could have impacts on flight categories. Mainly VFR Wednesday night through Thursday night, with scattered showers returning Friday.

MARINE
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign marine pattern expected to persist from today through Friday.

- Winds increase ahead of and especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend with Small Craft conditions possible.

High pressure lingers offshore as a slow moving cold front progresses to the NW of local waters. Latest obs show some variation in wind directions due to sea breeze circulations, but are generally out of the south (or west over the rivers). Wind speeds are 5-10kt.
Seas are around 3ft, waves are around 1ft. Later tonight, the front will finally progress south. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system may lead to locally increased winds and waves this evening and overnight. Winds behind the front remain fairly light and turn to the N, then NE by tomorrow morning. High pressure will be situated just N/NE of local waters Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will be onshore around 10kt through Thurs evening. Seas will be 2-3ft.

Winds turn to the SE on Friday as a warm front lifts across the region. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an incoming cold front, winds will increase to ~15kt and become more southwesterly Friday evening into Saturday. The next chance for SCAs looks to be Saturday evening into Sunday behind this cold front as northwest winds increase to around 20kt and seas pick up to 4-5ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.