Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:22 AM

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FXUS61 KRNK 282324 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 724 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure will allow for dry conditions through Monday. A low pressure system will then push a cold front through the region on Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of the week. Some shower and thunderstorm potential exists for parts of the area mainly Wednesday and Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Abnormally warm temps to continue.

With an upper level ridge, mostly sunny skies, and 85H temperature 14C-16C helped surface temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s along and north of Highway 460 today. More clouds were noted south, which kept temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Similar weather pattern Monday, but a few degrees warmer at 85H, which will translate to surface temperatures being 2F-4F warmer. Normal high temperatures for this time of year range run from the upper 60s across the mountains to mid 70s in the foothills and piedmont.

Forecast confidence is high.

Climate Records Summary

Monday 04/29/2024 Site MaxT Year MinT Year LoMax Year HiMin Year KBLF 86 2017 30 1946 42 2008 66 2017 KDAN 91 1981 35 2010 49 1999 68 2017 KLYH 88 1974 31 1976 50 1999 66 1956 KROA 89 1915 32 1944 49 1968 67 2017 KRNK 86 2017 25 1967 45 1988 59 2021

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Scattered showers and storms Tuesday.

Mid level ridging holds over the southeastern coast Monday into Tuesday, with a surface high sitting offshore of the Carolinas, will start off the work week. A shortwave trough and associated surface frontal system will track across the area through Tuesday.
Southwesterly flow around the surface high and ahead of the cold front will bring warmer and more moist air into the area to sustain warmer than normal temperatures for Tuesday, albeit a few degrees cooler than Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the cold front Tuesday afternoon and into the evening, with the highest probabilities for convection along and west of the Blue Ridge, as the front reaches the western counties in the forecast area near the peak heating of the day. Low level shear is forecast to be between 25 to 35 knots across the area, as some deterministic models have the cold front weakening as it approaches and then crosses the area. That being said, not expecting widespread coverage of showers and storms.

Following the frontal passage, surface high pressure returns to the area, and mid level ridging builds back in, continuing the above normal temperatures for the middle of the work week. As the 500mb shortwave moves offshore Wednesday, could see some lingering showers in the east, but Wednesday should be dry and warm for most.

Overnight lows will be on the mild side, mainly in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures continue through the week.
2. Daily chances of showers and storms, greatest coverage Saturday.

Surface high pressure over the northeast US will slide offshore during the second half of the work week, and winds will turn easterly then southeasterly Thursday into Friday. The 500mb trough will have moved off the Mid Atlantic Coast by late in the week.
Thus, may see some isolated showers in the eastern most counties of the forecast area Thursday afternoon, although confidence in this low, as high pressure should suppress most of the precipitation. By the end of the week and into the weekend, another 500mb trough will dig southward into the central Plains region. A stronger cold front approaches the area Friday and into the weekend as the associated surface low deepens and tracks into the Great Lakes region. As the previous forecast discussed, the timing of this front has slowed in recent model runs, resulting in the better coverage of showers and storms Friday night and through Saturday, but uncertainty still remains in the timing of this front. Surface high pressure pushes back into the area from the west for Sunday following the frontal passage.

High temperatures through the period will be in the upper 70s to mid to upper 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions expected for most sites through the period. Some diurnal cu field between 5-7 kft will fade as the evening progresses. Similar conditions Monday with possible cirrus, otherwise KLWB could have some reduced VSBYs or lower cigs due to possible fog development Monday morning.

Southerly winds will become light just after sunset, then increase to 8-12 kts with gusts near 20 kts after the inversion breaks around 9 AM.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

NW winds arrive behind a cold front crossing the area Tuesday with TSRA and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible again each afternoon on Wednesday and Thursday.



RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

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