Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Roanoke, VA

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:39PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 6:44 PM EST (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:32PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roanoke, VA
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location: 37.28, -79.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 262003 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 303 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will push through the Mid Atlantic region tonight, briefly clearing out skies before additional clouds arrive. A weak disturbance may bring some light rain to the area tomorrow, before a stronger low tracks into the area for later Wednesday and Thursday morning. Quiet high pressure arrives for Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 250 PM EST Tuesday .

Through Tonight . Westerly winds are continuing to erode cloud cover generally from west to east this afternoon and evening. Areas to the east and south of the Blue Ridge largely remain socked in, however clouds are gradually lifting and we should see partly cloudy skies for a few hours tonight.

Overnight a weak surface wave along the remaining baroclinic zone over the Southeastern states will lift some additional moisture into the area from the south. Skies will become overcast once again and will interrupt any radiational cooling that had begun. Temperatures which are currently in the mid to upper 50s should drop quickly into the 40s tonight, and then will drop further into the mid to upper 30s. Areas already in the upper 30s/lower 40s will have a more gradual and shorter drop since they will hold onto cloud cover the longest this evening. We will likely see some additional patchy fog overnight, especially south and east of the Blue Ridge once clouds clear out . as low level moisture remains trapped under an inversion around 2kft.

Wednesday . Isentropic lift will increase enough for rain to begin to encroach into northern NC and southern central VA by daybreak. WV and north central VA should stay mostly dry but cloudy throughout the morning hours. The first disturbance will skirt us to the south during the day, spreading rain chances across mainly the southern half of VA and all of northern NC. QPF amounts should be quite low and generally around one to two tenths of an inch with this disorganized system.

We may see a brief break in precipitation across the area ahead of the next, stronger impulse in the afternoon before precipitation starts up again. This break may offer some thinner clouds and additional sunshine, resulting in highs from the upper 30s/low 40s in the Alleghany Highlands to the lower 50s over central VA and north central NC. This southern stream open wave will deepen and trigger additional cyclogenesis off the southeastern Atlantic coast tomorrow afternoon, which will pull in colder air along and west of the Blue Ridge, changing rain to a rain/snow mix or just plain snow by nightfall. Not expecting too much accumulation through early evening.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH Friday/. As of 250 PM EST Tuesday .

A quick shot of wintry weather arrives Thursday before brief high pressure settles in for later in the week.

Our strong upper level trough from the Upper Midwest and Ohio- Tennessee Valleys will continue to pivot through Wednesday night into Thursday. At the same time surface low pressure will continue north from the Gulf of Mexico into the Smoky Mountains before shifting east toward the Carolina coast Thursday morning.

As the low works north it will strengthen drawing in colder air especially as it swings towards the coast early Thursday morning. Precip in most locations will likely start as rain before a quick change to wet snow. This is true in the mountains where the changeover will likely occur first during the Wednesday evening and Wednesday night timeframe. By Wednesday night into early Thursday morning all locations look to see snow. Accumulations will not be all that much since the system will cruising to the east fairly quickly Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. A general 1-3" of snow is expected along and west of the Blue Ridge with a dusting to an inch out east. Locally higher amounts are possible especially along the higher ridgetops of southern West Virginia, the Grayson Highlands, and North Carolina mountains. Slick travel will be a concern especially since the bulk of this event is coming in late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning when temperatures sit at or below 32 degrees.

Surface low pressure and our upper level trough exit for the North Carolina coast come Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Precipitation at this point looks to shutdown fairly quickly from west to east with leftover upslope from Lewisburg to Boone as northwest winds take over. These winds will be fairly gusty thanks to a tightened pressure gradient from our departing low and pressure rises as a brief area of high pressure from the northern Plains nudges in. This will lead to some blowing/drifting of snow out over the mountains as winds look to remain on the gusty side of things well into Thursday evening before high pressure fully takes over.

By Friday brief upper level ridging takes over with our broad area of high pressure moving in. This will lead to less wind and sunnier skies across the region to round out the workweek.

Temperatures look to remain at or slightly below average through period. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s in the west and low 40s in the east Thursday with a steady supply of cold air advection flowing in. Winds subside Thursday night allowing widespread mid to upper teens across the region before a minimal rebound back into the mid to upper 30s and low 40s Friday.

Confidence remains moderate in the short term based upon current model trends in regards to snow amounts.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 255 PM EST Tuesday .

High pressure Friday night through Saturday before a potential wintry mess Sunday into early next week.

Broad upper level ridging and high pressure remain in play briefly through Saturday evening. After that all good things come to an end with another potential wintry event in the cards for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all feature a low pressure system that will eject out of the southern Plains along with a lee-side low that will head for the coast and likely become a noreaster for the New England states during the Monday and Tuesday timeframe. Each model also illustrates an overrunning scenario with a strong cold air am in place thanks to high pressure blocking over eastern Canada.

The GFS remains the most aggressive and the fastest out of the 3 model suites bringing the low out of the southern Plain and into the Ohio River Valley without any coastal transfer. In turn this would give us more of a rain and mixed bag event compared to snow similar to the Miller-B type system that we saw this time last weekend. The Euro and Canadian on the favor more of a wedge with the blocking high pressure supplying the cold to the north and an area of low pressure transferring energy from the Ohio River Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. These solutions would favor more of a snow and ice event compared to rain. With all of that in mind the models are subject to change. As we have seen so often the trend starts out to the north with a big time snowfall forecast but as we get closer trends south and trends down when it comes to amounts so plenty of uncertainty remains.

So as it stands now plan for dry conditions through Saturday night with our next storm system slated to move in Sunday. As always temperatures, the placement of the front, and track of the resultant low pressure systems will play into the overall ptype. The brunt of the system will be in here Sunday and Monday before a good dose of northwest flow kicks in MOnday afternoon as the system slowly departs. This will set us up for a prolonged upslope snow event in the western mountains from Monday into the middle part of next week.

Temperatures look to remain at or slightly below average to start the period with a return to seasonable to slightly above average numbers by the midweek period.

Confidence remains low to moderate at this time in the long term period.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 300 PM EST Tuesday .

Clouds are no longer impacting any TAF sites in the area, but fog may return overnight as well as additional LIFR/MVFR cloud cover, especially for KLYH and KDAN.

Average confidence for visibilities, wind, and increasing cloud cover overnight.

AMD NOT SKED was added to KDAN TAF due to an outage in the observations.

Extended Aviation Discussion .

VFR conditions expected to start the day Wednesday, then transition into MVFR/IFR categories Wednesday night as another low pressure system brings more precipitation to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry weather is expected Thursday night and Friday. MVFR showers are possible Saturday in the west.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VA . None. NC . None. WV . None.

SYNOPSIS . AMS/SH NEAR TERM . SH SHORT TERM . ET LONG TERM . ET/RR AVIATION . AMS/PM/SH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA3 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair43°F40°F89%1010.9 hPa
Virginia Tech Airport, VA24 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair47°F47°F100%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROA

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5S3SW3SE6--CalmCalmW4SE4SE4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS43SE4SE5SE4Calm
1 day agoE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW3SW3SE5SE8SE6SE11SE6
2 days agoNW4NW4N3W3NE3NE4NE4N3NW4W3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE7S5SE6SE5SE3E5SE5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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