Monday, August26, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Roanoke, VA

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:59PM Monday August 26, 2019 4:58 AM EDT (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 4:14PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roanoke, VA
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location: 37.28, -79.96     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 260815
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
415 am edt Mon aug 26 2019

A wedge of cool air will remain across the mid-atlantic region
into Tuesday keeping abundant clouds and seasonably cool
temperatures in place along with intermittent light rain and
drizzle. A warm front will begin to move north from the
southeast u.S. By Tuesday while a cold front moves toward the
appalachians from the west. Rain will increase tonight and
Tuesday as these features approach the area.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Monday...

a damp unseasonably cool period in store for the area again
today and tonight. The combination of high pressure slowly
retreating off the northern mid-atlantic coast and the
combination of a couple of tropical low pressure areas well off
the nc sc coast will result in a large-scale northeast to east
flow across the southeast and mid-atlantic region. The moist,
long-scale fetch of easterly flow will keep the lower stratus in
place through the period. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough was
pushing into the western great lakes and will drive a cold front
eastward into the oh tn valley by late Tuesday as it takes on a
negative tilt as well. Upper ridging ahead of this trough will
help to lift a warm front northeast from the southeast u.S.

While an associated cold front approaches from the west.

Isentropic lift will increase overnight, resulting in increasing
pockets to areas of drizzle, and light rain, and lower cloud
ceilings with some attendant 3-5sm in fog, drizzle, and light

For today, with limited dynamics, have left pops low and confined
mainly to upslope areas along the blue ridge and far west
increasing to good chance range tonight, especially in the west
nearer the approaching front. Have not mentioned thunder this
period as the air mass appears too stable with the deep wedge in

High temperatures today will be on par with what we saw Sunday,
although with perhaps a bit less sunshine, especially in the
west, readings potentially could be 1-3 degrees cooler. Near
steady temperatures expected overnight as the warm front
approaches slowly from the south with increasingly widespread
light rain and drizzle. High temperatures today mostly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s west and in the 70s east, with lows
tonight mainly in the 50s west and 60s east.

Confidence in forecast parameters
temperatures - moderate to high,
precipitation probabilities - moderate,
thunderstorm threat - little to none.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
As of 315 am edt Monday...

Tuesday will begin with a warm front north of the region and a cold
front approaching from the west. South to southwest flow in advance
of the cold front will advect milder air and more moisture into the
region. We are expecting isolated to scattered showers across the
region during the course of the day, with the greatest concentration
across the far western sections, closest to the approaching cold
front. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across this far
western section during the late afternoon hours. High temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 70s across the mountains to around
80 degrees across the piedmont.

Tuesday night, showers will continue to be isolated to
scattered across the area, especially over the far western
sections. Precipitation may be lacking across eastern sections
with the focus for precipitation becoming concentrated near the
approaching cold front. Southwest winds and increasing dew
points will yield milder low temperatures as well. Lows are
expected to range from around 60 to the lower 60s across the
mountains to the low to mid 60s over the piedmont.

On Wednesday, the cold front is expected to cross the area with
associated scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
continue to be on the mild side in advance of the front. Highs are
expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s across the
mountains with mid to upper 80s across the piedmont.

Wednesday night into Thursday, high pressure and drier conditions
will work they way into the region. While we expect some lingering
showers storms across eastern sections of the region Wednesday
evening, a dry forecast is in store the latter half of Wednesday
night for the area. Dry and cooler conditions are forecast Wednesday
night through Thursday night.

Lows Wednesday night are forecast in the mid to upper 50s
across the mountains with low to mid 60s across the piedmont.

Highs Thursday are forecast in the mid to upper 70s across the
mountains with values around 80 to the lower 80s across the piedmont.

Thursday night, low to mid 50s are expected over the mountains with
upper 50s to around 60 over the piedmont.

Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is moderate to high.

Long term Friday through Sunday
As of noon edt Sunday...

appears models show enough consistency Thursday-Friday for a
dry forecast, with high pressure situated over the region. As we
head into the weekend a front arrives and then slows across the
southeast. Models show low potential for showers even into
Saturday, with two areas of deeper moisture convergence, one
along the southeast coast, and the other across the ohio valley
into the mid ms valley. Low pressure forms along the front
across the lower ms valley late Saturday night, nudging moisture
north of the boundary into the virginias north carolina for
Sunday. However, there still remains some model difference with
majority of coverage staying along south of the boundary over
the carolinas georgia, with more scattered coverage across our
forecast area.

Needless to stay average confidence in the weekend forecast,
with above average confidence for dry weather thu-fri.

Temperatures will stay close to late august into labor day

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
As of 215 am edt Monday...

high pressure extending southward from new england, wedged
against the eastern face of the appalachians, is expected to
remain in place through the TAF valid period, maintaining a
light to moderate east northeasterly wind flow through the
period. A couple of tropical disturbances well off the nc sc
coast will also help to reinforce the northeast flow across the
region for the next couple of days. This will keep a marine
layer of moisture in place through the lower levels. Meanwhile,
a warm front across the southeast states will slowly begin to
lift back north in response to building high pressure aloft.

Isentropic lift will increase significantly overnight into
Tuesday morning bringing widespread deeper moisture into the
region in the form of light rain and drizzle in the stable,
cool, wedge air mass present across the region.

Ceilings will be MVFR through much of the first part of the taf
valid period, with ifr ceilings in low clouds, fog,
drizzle light rain developing after 00z Tue and continuing well into
Tuesday morning.

Confidence in forecast parameters
ceilings - moderate,
visibilities - moderate to high,
winds - high,
thunderstorm threat - none

Extended aviation discussion
More typical late summer conditions will return by midweek.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are
expected Tuesday. On Wednesday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
crossing through the region. Finally,VFR conditions should
prevail behind the front on Thursday.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Rab
near term... Rab
short term... Ds
long term... Ds wp
aviation... Rab

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA3 mi2.1 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F57°F78%1020.9 hPa
Virginia Tech Airport, VA24 mi2.1 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F57°F93%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROA

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--N7--N9NE8--N6NE7--NE6--E10--E5E7E8E6NE3CalmCalm------Calm
1 day ago--NE3NE3NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5E73E54E85E6E6E5E4------Calm----
2 days ago----W3W4W5--W9W633SE64NW11N6W4N4NE11NE4NE7--------Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.