Monday, September21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Williamsburg, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:04PM Monday September 21, 2020 4:27 AM EDT (08:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:43AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 358 Am Edt Mon Sep 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm edt this afternoon...
Through 7 am..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot in the late evening and overnight.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 358 Am Edt Mon Sep 21 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Strong high pressure will remain north of the region today as hurricane teddy tracks northward well offshore. This will lead to a period of strong north to northeast wind through today with elevated seas at least into Tuesday. The high will become centered from the ohio valley to the southeast states Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamsburg, VA
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location: 37.3, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 210746 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 346 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure will build into the region from the north today. This high will stay over the region through much of week ahead.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 345 AM EDT Monday .

Generally quiet weather will continue today with conditions very similar to what we saw on Sunday. Strong (1038mb) high pressure centered near the NY/VT/southern Canadian border extends southward along the higher terrain of the Appalachians. Hurricane Teddy continues to move northward in the west central Atlantic and TS Beta nears the central TX Gulf Coast. The gradient between the surface high and Teddy offshore will lead to continued breezy NE winds today, again strongest near the coast. Most of the region will see mostly sunny skies today with more clouds hanging on over southeastern third of the area. A few light showers or sprinkles will be possible once again today but shouldn't result in more than trace accumulations. High temperatures today top out in the mid to upper 60s with some low 70s possible across NE NC. High pressure settles over the area tonight finally reducing the pressure gradient and allowing for excellent radiational cooling over inland areas. Lows tonight generally in the low to mid 40s along and west of I-95 with continued potential for some upper 30s in the typically cooler locales across the NW. To the east of 95 lows average in the upper 40s and low 50s with some upper 50s along the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EDT Monday .

String of exceptionally pleasant wx days continues Tuesday. Building upper ridging/sfc high overhead brings a mostly clear/sunny sky Tuesday, with low humidity and highs in the low 70s. Not as cool Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s.

Sfc high slides offshore and the upper ridge finally starts to break down as remnants of TC Beta approach the mid-south region. Resultant return flow will kick start moderating trend with temps bumping back up toward climo normal. Highs Wed in the upper 70s to ~80. Overnight lows Wednesday continue the warming trend with low to mid 50s inland to right around 60 degrees at the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 330 PM EDT Sunday .

High pressure for much of the day Thursday before a weak short wave moves through late Thursday into Friday, allowing for an isolated shower (15-25% PoPs) through Friday in the SW portion of the CWA. A ridge of high pressure begins to develop by Saturday over the region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. The ridge and trough deepen through the weekend and into Monday as a low pressure system develops over the Great Lakes. The trough and associated cold front moves through the region Monday or Tuesday. The result of this amplified pattern will be an increase in prefrontal precipitation chances from Saturday through at least Monday with mainly isolated light showers Saturday and Sunday before a much greater chance for rain (possibly heavy rain) on Monday along and just ahead of the cold front.

Highs generally in the upper 70s to around 80F through the extended. Lows Wednesday night will range from the low 50s NW to around 60F near the coast. Lows Thursday through Saturday nights will range from the mid to upper 50s W to the low 60s E. Lows Sunday night will range from the low 60s NW to the upper 60s SE.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1250 AM PM EDT Monday .

VFR conditions across area terminals are expected to continue through the 06z TAF period. Strong NNE winds will continue through the TAF period (gusts to 25-30 kt are likely at ORF/ECG, with 20-25 kt gusts at the other terminals). Clear/SKC inland but with the continued NNE flow, expect SCT SC at 3-5kft AGL to continue near the immediate coast tonight. CIGs likely become BKN at 3-5kft near the coast again this afternoon. While some of the hi-res guidance is forecasting the potential for a brief period of MVFR SC along the VA/NC coast (ORF/ECG), will go with persistence and keep CIGs above 3kft in all of the TAFs (conditions remained VFR earlier today, even near the coast). At RIC/SBY, expect just SCT aftn VFR CU/SC this afternoon. Cannot rule out isolated light showers/sprinkles across SE VA/NE NC during the day, but these will not have any impact on flying conditions.

OUTLOOK . Strong high pressure will provide dry/VFR conditions through midweek.

MARINE. As of 345 AM EDT Monday .

1038mb high pressure is centered over nrn New England early this morning. Meanwhile, and upper trough is dropping SE well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This has helped enhance CAA early this morning. A NE wind is generally 20-25kt with gusts to ~30kt for most of the area, 25-30kt with gusts to ~35kt off the Currituck Outer Banks, and 15-20kt for the rivers aside from the lower James. Seas range from 9-11ft N to 11-13ft S, with 3-5ft waves in the Bay, and 5- 7ft at the mouth of the Bay. The trough will continue to drop SE today and interact with Hurricane Teddy. Meanwhile, the high will remain centered N of the region and gradually weaken through tonight. Therefore, the pressure gradient will slowly slacken, with the wind diminishing to NE 15-25kt by this aftn, and NE 12-20kt by tonight.

SCAs for the Bay have been extended through 08z/4am Tuesday, through 11z/7am Tuesday for the Sound, and remain at 02z/10pm Tuesday for the lower James, and 17z/1pm today for the remaining rivers. A gale warning continues for the ocean off the Currituck Outer Banks through 17z/1pm today. The combination of onshore flow and Hurricane Teddy will result in seas remaining 8-12ft through tonight and subsiding to 6-10ft Tuesday, with 5-7ft waves in the mouth of the Bay today subsiding to 3-4ft Tuesday. SCAs for the ocean N of the VA/NC border have been extended through 11z/7am Wednesday, and remain 22z/6pm Tuesday for the mouth of the Bay.

Hurricane Teddy is forecast to make landfall on Nova Scotia early Wednesday, with high pressure sinking swd into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday. The wind will become WNW 10-15kt and seas are expected to subside once the hurricane makes landfall and the wind becomes offshore. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming southerly. Seas are expected to subside to ~2ft by the end of the week.

Hurricane Teddy tracking nwd well off the coast will keep seas elevated into middle portion of the week. Otherwise, the wind will diminish as high pressure settles into the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. As of 750 PM EDT Sunday .

The Flood Warning has been cancelled for the Chickahominy River near Providence Forge, as the river has fallen below flood stage. Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Nottoway River near Sebrell, and the Blackwater River near Dendron/Zuni/Franklin. Will likely be able to cancel the Flood Warning for Dendron by Monday morning, while the other warnings likely will remain in effect for at least the next day or two.

See FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ and weather.gov/AKQ for more site-specific information.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 555 AM EDT Sunday .

Despite the continued onshore/NE flow, there has been no significant flood tide vs. ebb tide dominance at the mouth of the Bay over the past several cycles and there is no indication that this changes during the next 24-36 hrs. Thus, water levels across the middle and upper Bay are only showing departures of 0.5 to 1.0 ft above astronomical tides and the chance for this increasing significantly through today and even Monday is low. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Watch has been cancelled and a the Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended through the Monday aftn high tide.

Across the lower Bay, lower James River, York River, and the coastlines of Northampton County, VA departures are higher, averaging ~1.5 ft above normal. These departures will result in minor flooding at higher astronomical high tide this morning through early aftn, and borderline minor flooding during the lower astronomical high tide later this evening. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Warning has been replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory today into tonight. The higher astronomical high tide from mid-Monday morning into the early aftn still has a potential to reach moderate flooding in some locations, so a Coastal Flood Warning is still in effect for Monday.

Coastal Flood Warnings continue for ocean-side VA Beach through Outer Banks Currituck today through Monday. Moderate flooding is expected during the higher astronomical high tides this morning and Monday morning, with tidal departures ~2.0ft above normal. Minor flooding is likely during the lower astronomical high tide this evening.

Swells enhanced by Hurricane Teddy (well offshore), with periods of ~17 seconds, and very large waves of 10-12 feet+ will make for very dangerous conditions at the Atlantic Beaches (especially Sunday and Monday). In addition, there is dune/beach erosion potential, especially for more vulnerable locations, later this weekend into early next week. Beach Hazards Statements/High Rip Current Risk will be needed through this weekend into next week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for Virginia Beach/Eastern Currituck as seas are ~8ft and are expected to 8-10ft off VA Beach, and potentially 10-12ft for Outer Banks Currituck. High Surf Advisories have been added to the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore beginning this evening.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. NC . Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. VA . Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ089-090. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ089- 090. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ084-093-095>097-100-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ084- 093-095>097-100-523>525. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075- 077-078-085-086. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . RHR SHORT TERM . MAM/RHR LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . ERI/RHR MARINE . AJZ HYDROLOGY . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 9 mi58 min N 5.1 57°F 1031 hPa49°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 10 mi58 min NNE 14 G 17 62°F 72°F1029.7 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 17 mi58 min NE 25 G 31 63°F
44072 21 mi38 min ESE 21 G 25 63°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 26 mi58 min NNE 8 G 12 62°F 1029.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi40 min NNE 19 G 23 64°F 71°F1032.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 29 mi58 min NNE 22 G 25 63°F 1028.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 30 mi64 min 72°F1029.2 hPa
44087 33 mi62 min 71°F5 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 33 mi58 min NNE 14 G 20 63°F 1028.7 hPa
CHBV2 35 mi58 min NE 20 G 23 61°F 1027.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi58 min NNE 8 G 13 67°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 38 mi58 min NNE 25 G 29 1030.4 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi58 min NE 7 G 11 62°F 73°F1028.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 49 mi58 min ENE 13 G 20 60°F 64°F1031.3 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA5 mi33 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F48°F82%1030.8 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA11 mi32 minN 710.00 miFair58°F48°F71%1029.4 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA14 mi34 minNNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F46°F60%1029.6 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA16 mi33 minNNW 310.00 miFair49°F44°F82%1031.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA22 mi32 minNE 1210.00 miA Few Clouds61°F50°F68%1030.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJGG

Wind History from JGG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmN5CalmN6NE3NE4NE6
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2 days agoNE3CalmN3N5CalmCalmN7N7N7CalmN6
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Tide / Current Tables for Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance), York River, Virginia
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Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:29 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:33 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:58 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.82.51.81.10.4000.411.92.63.13.33.12.61.91.10.50.20.20.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Allmondsville, York River, Virginia
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Allmondsville
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:28 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:57 PM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.43.42.92.21.30.50-00.41.22.23.13.73.93.73.12.31.40.60.20.20.61.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.