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FXUS65 KVEF 030818 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1218 AM PST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Ridging will result in warming temperatures, dry conditions, and light winds for most of the forecast area through the middle of the week. A change in the weather pattern brings cooler temperatures back to the area towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM
Sunday through Tuesday.

A ridge of high pressure, currently off the California coast, builds into the southwestern CONUS over the next few days. Temperatures will stay near normal today, but climb into above normal territory starting on Monday as part of a warming trend that will last through the middle of the week. A weak disturbance will slide to the south of the ridge on Monday which will lead to a tighter north to south pressure gradient at the surface. Northerly winds increase along the Colorado River Valley on Monday and Tuesday, with the strongest winds between Laughlin and Needles. The rest of the forecast area will not see a substantial increase in wind speeds and widespread advisory level winds are not expected at this time. Mid to high level cloud cover continues to stream into the area on Sunday and Monday due to moisture advection aloft. No precipitation is expected as the greatest moisture will be sent well to the north of the forecast area thanks to the ridge.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through next Saturday.

Temperatures will peak on Wednesday under a Pacific ridge of high pressure, with high temperatures ranging 8 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Wednesday night into Thursday, ensemble means indicate the development of a cold, deep trough will begin its approach inland. Details regarding the impacts to our forecast area remain uncertain. However, we know that temperatures will drop to at or below-normal, gusty north-northwest winds will enhance ahead of and behind the associated cold frontal passage, and precipitation chances will increase across the Great Basin. Moisture associated with this trough is substantial, as it will guide a robust atmospheric river into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain region.

At the moment, the best chances of precipitation exist across the southern Great Basin on Friday, when snow levels drop below 6000 ft.
Details regarding precipitation timing and amounts will come more clear as the system evolves.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Expect south to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots each night and light and variable winds each day through Monday. Clouds at or above 10K feet will pass by at times, with the greatest coverage expected tonight through midday Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Expect dry conditions through Monday with clouds generally remaining at or above 12K feet MSL in the Mojave Desert, but dropping as low as 6K feet with terrain obscuration in the southern Great Basin, especially today. Expect winds less than 20 knots areawide today, then northerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots developing in the Colorado River Valley on Monday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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