Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakhurst, CA
May 16, 2024 6:46 AM PDT (13:46 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 1:45 PM Moonset 2:34 AM |
Area Discussion for - San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA
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FXUS66 KHNX 161002 AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 302 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. Afternoon temperatures will remain well above seasonal values through Sunday.
2. Strong wind gusts will impact the Mojave Desert Slopes this evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued in this area for this evening.
3. A slight cooling trend is expected to take place early next week.
4. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada Saturday afternoon.
DISCUSSION
The upper level pattern is a bit of a mess this morning. An open wave exiting into Texas to the east and a offshore upper low near 30N/130W. The Golden State remains between the two with rising heights from weakening ridge over the eastern Pacific.
The probability of thunder is near zero this afternoon for the Sierra.
The Mojave Slopes remain between the low pressure over the Colorado River Basin between Nevada and Arizona and surface high pressure over the Pacific. The surface gradient and nocturnal downslope from the Kern County Mountains keep reasonable confidence in advisory level wind gusts especially along Highway 58 and Highway 14. Short term model Ensemble probabilities are 60% to near 100% for PoE's of 45 mph from 7 PM to 1 AM and then decreasing towards sunrise. Timing is consistent from last night and seems reasonable to continue the advisory.
Wednesday maximum temperatures saw China Lake NAF hit 99. The PoE of 100*F for China Lake today is only 6%. In the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) below a 1000 feet in elevation saw widespread low 90s with no first order station breeching the 95*F mark.
Locations below 1000 feet this afternoon PoE of 95*F range from 31%-41% with the best probabilities falling on Lemoore NAS and Fresno. This seems fairly reasonable with a slight increase in heights and a little less afternoon cloud cover from any Sierra convective activity that floats over the valley.
On Friday central California falls between a strong wave passing over Idaho and Montana extending down into northern Nevada and the upper low wandering around 30N/130W. Upper level heights fall a tad for a slight down tick in temperatures by 2-3 degrees with no significant change from Thursday afternoon. The PoE of 95*F falls down to 15%-30% for the SJV. Even the PoE of 90*F falls to 36% to 86% with Fresno, Bakersfield, and Delano with the highest PoE of 90. The Mojave Slopes are expected to be gusty again with the nocturnal downslope winds, however the low pressure over the Colorado River Basin weakens enough not to warrant an advisory with probabilities of exceeding 45 mph well below 40%. In the Sierra CAPE does show some 250-500 J/KG however thunder probabilities remain sub 15%.
Saturday a very weak upper level disturbance slips through the region for another tweak down on heights. However, PoE of 90*F ranges from 45% to 71% for the SJV below 1000 feet in elevation.
The highlight in the forecast is an increased thunderstorm probability. The probability of thunder for Sequoia, Kings Canyon, and Yosemite NPs increases to 20% to 30% as CAPE increases slightly and the passing upper wave has a better potential of igniting some thunder. Valley and Desert locations remain with near zero probability of thunder. Mojave Slopes remain gusty in the evening to the early overnight hours, however the position of the Colorado River Basin thermal low looks to not be in a favorable spot for advisory level winds.
Sunday features a strong upper trough moving into northern California that ushers in the nudging down of temperatures for the region. Other than some lowering of upper heights and small around of CAPE around the probability of thunder reduces below 10% for the Sierra. Depending on the thermal trough or low setup in the Deserts the Mojave wind will have a probability of hitting 45 mph or greater that is non-zero on Sunday evening.
On Monday a piece of upper energy slides through the NW flow aloft that brings a better, however not great, probability of thunder to the highest elevations of the Sierra. The main impact will be nudging down to near normal temperatures for the SJV with highs in the mid to upper 80s hitting on the highest probability with PoE of 90*F fall below 30% in the hot spots and most locations sub 15%. The Mojave Slopes remain with the status quo of "maybe, possibly" on nocturnal winds at advisory levels.
Tuesday through Thursday features NW flow for Central California and the Sierra. The best energy from upper waves remains in far northern California and Pacific NW. The story line for the SJV, desert, and Sierra is slight above normal temperatures. Only impacts maybe from the Mojave Slopes with wind gusts in the evening. Otherwise, not much in the probability of thunder with the Sierra having less than 5%. Cluster analysis concurs with the flow pattern keep confidence in the moderate level with the mid to late term of the forecast.
AVIATION
VFR. Localized gap winds on the lee side of the Sierra and Kern County mountains 02Z-12Z.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 05/15/2024 14:40 EXPIRES: 05/16/2024 23:59 None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 302 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. Afternoon temperatures will remain well above seasonal values through Sunday.
2. Strong wind gusts will impact the Mojave Desert Slopes this evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued in this area for this evening.
3. A slight cooling trend is expected to take place early next week.
4. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada Saturday afternoon.
DISCUSSION
The upper level pattern is a bit of a mess this morning. An open wave exiting into Texas to the east and a offshore upper low near 30N/130W. The Golden State remains between the two with rising heights from weakening ridge over the eastern Pacific.
The probability of thunder is near zero this afternoon for the Sierra.
The Mojave Slopes remain between the low pressure over the Colorado River Basin between Nevada and Arizona and surface high pressure over the Pacific. The surface gradient and nocturnal downslope from the Kern County Mountains keep reasonable confidence in advisory level wind gusts especially along Highway 58 and Highway 14. Short term model Ensemble probabilities are 60% to near 100% for PoE's of 45 mph from 7 PM to 1 AM and then decreasing towards sunrise. Timing is consistent from last night and seems reasonable to continue the advisory.
Wednesday maximum temperatures saw China Lake NAF hit 99. The PoE of 100*F for China Lake today is only 6%. In the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) below a 1000 feet in elevation saw widespread low 90s with no first order station breeching the 95*F mark.
Locations below 1000 feet this afternoon PoE of 95*F range from 31%-41% with the best probabilities falling on Lemoore NAS and Fresno. This seems fairly reasonable with a slight increase in heights and a little less afternoon cloud cover from any Sierra convective activity that floats over the valley.
On Friday central California falls between a strong wave passing over Idaho and Montana extending down into northern Nevada and the upper low wandering around 30N/130W. Upper level heights fall a tad for a slight down tick in temperatures by 2-3 degrees with no significant change from Thursday afternoon. The PoE of 95*F falls down to 15%-30% for the SJV. Even the PoE of 90*F falls to 36% to 86% with Fresno, Bakersfield, and Delano with the highest PoE of 90. The Mojave Slopes are expected to be gusty again with the nocturnal downslope winds, however the low pressure over the Colorado River Basin weakens enough not to warrant an advisory with probabilities of exceeding 45 mph well below 40%. In the Sierra CAPE does show some 250-500 J/KG however thunder probabilities remain sub 15%.
Saturday a very weak upper level disturbance slips through the region for another tweak down on heights. However, PoE of 90*F ranges from 45% to 71% for the SJV below 1000 feet in elevation.
The highlight in the forecast is an increased thunderstorm probability. The probability of thunder for Sequoia, Kings Canyon, and Yosemite NPs increases to 20% to 30% as CAPE increases slightly and the passing upper wave has a better potential of igniting some thunder. Valley and Desert locations remain with near zero probability of thunder. Mojave Slopes remain gusty in the evening to the early overnight hours, however the position of the Colorado River Basin thermal low looks to not be in a favorable spot for advisory level winds.
Sunday features a strong upper trough moving into northern California that ushers in the nudging down of temperatures for the region. Other than some lowering of upper heights and small around of CAPE around the probability of thunder reduces below 10% for the Sierra. Depending on the thermal trough or low setup in the Deserts the Mojave wind will have a probability of hitting 45 mph or greater that is non-zero on Sunday evening.
On Monday a piece of upper energy slides through the NW flow aloft that brings a better, however not great, probability of thunder to the highest elevations of the Sierra. The main impact will be nudging down to near normal temperatures for the SJV with highs in the mid to upper 80s hitting on the highest probability with PoE of 90*F fall below 30% in the hot spots and most locations sub 15%. The Mojave Slopes remain with the status quo of "maybe, possibly" on nocturnal winds at advisory levels.
Tuesday through Thursday features NW flow for Central California and the Sierra. The best energy from upper waves remains in far northern California and Pacific NW. The story line for the SJV, desert, and Sierra is slight above normal temperatures. Only impacts maybe from the Mojave Slopes with wind gusts in the evening. Otherwise, not much in the probability of thunder with the Sierra having less than 5%. Cluster analysis concurs with the flow pattern keep confidence in the moderate level with the mid to late term of the forecast.
AVIATION
VFR. Localized gap winds on the lee side of the Sierra and Kern County mountains 02Z-12Z.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 05/15/2024 14:40 EXPIRES: 05/16/2024 23:59 None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Brandt Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:11 AM PDT 0.64 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:41 AM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:53 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM PDT -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:09 AM PDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:33 PM PDT 0.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:50 PM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:41 PM PDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:49 PM PDT -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:09 PM PDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:30 PM PDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:11 AM PDT 0.64 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:41 AM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:53 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM PDT -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:09 AM PDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:33 PM PDT 0.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:50 PM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:41 PM PDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:49 PM PDT -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:09 PM PDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:30 PM PDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Brandt Bridge, San Joaquin River, California Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| -0.4 |
| 7 am |
| -0.6 |
| 8 am |
| -0.7 |
| 9 am |
| -0.6 |
| 10 am |
| -0.4 |
| 11 am |
| -0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
San Joaquin Valley, CA,
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