Friday, February26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mathews, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:57PM Friday February 26, 2021 11:17 PM EST (04:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:18PMMoonset 6:35AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 937 Pm Est Fri Feb 26 2021
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 937 Pm Est Fri Feb 26 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure retreats to the northeast tonight. Meanwhile, weak low pressure moves north tonight along the coast. A series of weak systems will bring unsettled weather back into the region over the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mathews, VA
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location: 37.35, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 270203 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 903 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will exit to the northeast overnight. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure will track up the North Carolina coast tonight through early Saturday. A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday night and early Sunday, followed by a cold front that will cross the area from the northwest Sunday night through Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 900 PM EST Friday .

Low pressure continues to develop off the Carolina coast late this evening, with high pressure offshore of the New England coast slowly drifting away from the area. Pcpn associated with WAA (in advance of the system) has overspread the entire area late this evening. This has mainly been in the form of rain. However, have seen a brief period of snow/sleet over wrn Louisa/Fluvanna Counties during the past couple of hours, with reports of a very light coating on grassy/elevated surfaces. Pcpn will become all rain by 10-11 PM as warmer air in the 950-850 mb layer quickly moves in from the S and SE. Not expecting impacts with temperatures remaining just above freezing and a quick transition to all rain. Still expecting the rain to last through much of the night. Lows tonight will range from 32-35F NW to the upr 40s SE. Temperatures should actually rise overnight, especially E/SE as a warm front backs into eastern portions of the region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Friday .

The unsettled, wet weather is expected to continue into Saturday morning as low pressure skirts through eastern VA in the morning and then moves toward Long Island by 18z. Highest rain chances will be across the northern 2/3rds of the FA in the morning then decreasing chances in the afternoon as SSW flow develops behind the departing low. Will carry highest PoPs (30%) across the north in the afternoon and even that may be too pessimistic. Total QPF into Saturday morning will range from ~0.25" coastal NE NC to 0.50-0.80" inland (with locally higher amounts possible).

On Sunday, a warm frontal boundary will linger across the region in the morning, before lifting into far northern portions of the area (or just north of it) by Sunday afternoon. The highest rain chances will be limited to the northern tier of the region late Saturday night and during the day on Sunday. Additional QPF amounts through Sunday will be light. Sunday's high temperatures will be dependent on how far north the warm front makes it, but temperatures Sunday have the potential to be quite mild. Raised high temperatures slightly from the previous forecast with readings ranging from the lower to mid 70s for the southern 2/3rds of the area. NBM probs show around an 80% likelihood of reaching 70 deg in RIC with high confidence of low to mid 70s for south-central VA into NE NC. Further north and on the Eastern Shore, highs will generally be in the 60s. Rain chances increase once again Sunday evening/Sunday night and into Monday morning as the frontal boundary slides back SE as a cold front. Will have high likely to categorical PoPs for much of the FA Sunday night and through midday Monday. As the front pushes SE and away from the area Monday afternoon, will show decreasing PoPs from NW to SE. However, it may take until Monday evening for pcpn to end across NE NC. Storm total QPF tonight through the Monday will range from around 1.50" across the N/NW half of the FA to 0.50-1.0" across the far SE VA and NE NC. It should be noted that river forecast ensemble guidance is in agreement in showing the potential for minor to locally moderate river flooding to occur early next week if the forecast QPF amounts verify. We've already sent a briefing out to address this potential.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Friday .

The frontal boundary pushes well south of the region Mon night into Tue, with cool high pressure building in from the north. Models then diverge on their solutions from later Tue through Thu. The 12z GFS maintains dry wx during this period, keeping any systems well south of the area. While the 12z ECMWF brings another system up into and across the region Tue night through Wed. Continue to lean toward the ECMWF for now, with at least small chances for pcpn. Mainly dry wx for later Wed through Thu. Generally near normal or slight above normal temps expected for most of the extended period.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 630 PM EST Friday .

Rain continues to overspread the area this eve from sw to ne. The airmass is initially dry, so it make take a few hrs for the column to saturate enough for CIGS to drop. Expect IFR CIGS along with lwr VSBYS in areas of rain/fog by or shortly after 06Z. These conditions continue thru Sat morn before the rain tapers off to sct shwrs Sat aftrn. CIGS will slowly rise to MVFR/VFR late Sat aftrn. ESE winds arnd 10 kt tonight become SSW Sat at 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK . A series of low pressure systems/frontal boundaries will affect the area from this weekend through Mon, bringing periodic flight restrictions in both rain/fog.

MARINE. As of 730 PM EST Friday .

Sfc high pressure retreats to the northeast tonight. Sfc low pressure across the Southeast U.S. is beginning to form and will track north along the coast tonight. In consequence, winds are easterly 10-15 kt with a brief period of northeasterly winds in the Bay this evening. Winds will become southeast tonight as the sfc high pressure continues to slide southeast over the western Atlantic, and winds speeds will increase as the low pressure to our south deepens. Winds will be SE ~15 kt over the upper and middle Bay and SE 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt over the southern Bay and 15-20 with gusts to 30 kt over the Atlantic coastal waters through Saturday morning. This tightening of the pressure gradient, creating a strong southeast flow, will extend well offshore. This will create a swell that will approach our coastal waters Saturday morning, where seas will be 5-7 ft (4-5 ft at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay). SCA is in effect beginning tonight and lasting through Saturday Afternoon. Have added the lower Bay to the SCA due to higher confidence in stronger winds.

Sfc low pressure will track north along the Chesapeake Bay during the day on Saturday. Strongest winds will be over the Atlantic. Winds will become S 10-15 kt for the bay and S ~20 kt for the ocean Saturday morning. As the low track north of the area, winds will become SW 10-15 kt everywhere.

The pressure gradient will weaken Saturday night as high pressure becomes centered across Eastern PA. Winds will be light and variable. A warm front will quickly move north across the area Sunday morning. Winds will turn SW and increase to 15-20 kt. Gusts may be as high as 30 kt Sunday afternoon, especially near the shore (however confidence is low on whether gusts reach that high). SCAs will be likely for Sunday afternoon for the bay and tidal river, and possible for the ocean.

Winds will remain SW 10-20 kt Sunday night until a cold front moves off the coast Monday morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 2 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . ERI/JDM SHORT TERM . AJB/JDM LONG TERM . JDM AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CP/RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi47 min E 9.9 G 11 42°F
44072 10 mi27 min SSE 9.7 G 12 43°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi47 min E 9.9 G 11 42°F 42°F1027.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi47 min NE 12 G 14 1028.2 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 19 mi47 min E 9.9 G 16 42°F
44087 23 mi21 min 41°F2 ft
CHBV2 24 mi47 min E 14 G 17 44°F 1025.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi47 min ENE 2.9 41°F 1028 hPa40°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 28 mi47 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 1027.3 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 28 mi47 min 43°F1026.8 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 32 mi47 min W 2.9 G 6 46°F 1026.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 32 mi47 min E 12 G 14 44°F 1027.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 35 mi47 min E 11 G 15 44°F 45°F1028.1 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 40 mi47 min ESE 7 G 8.9 47°F 45°F1026.8 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 41 mi21 min 43°F3 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi47 min E 8.9 G 12 41°F 41°F1028.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi23 min E 12 G 14 40°F 39°F1028.1 hPa

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA19 mi21 minESE 108.00 miLight Rain45°F45°F100%1027.7 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA20 mi23 minE 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F42°F97%1027.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA24 mi81 minE 910.00 miLight Rain43°F40°F88%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLFI

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4NE3NE6NE9NE7E8E10E15E13E11E10E6NE5E7E10E10E11E10
1 day agoSW15SW16SW13W11W10W6NW6N8
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2 days agoSW5CalmCalmCalmS4CalmS4CalmCalmSE9SE10SE9S12S9S11S11S12
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Tide / Current Tables for New Point Comfort, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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New Point Comfort
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Fri -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:11 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:42 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0-0.2-00.51.21.92.42.62.52.21.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.10.71.422.32.321.5

Tide / Current Tables for York Spit Light, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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York Spit Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:49 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:01 AM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:32 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:22 PM EST     2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.1-0.20.10.61.322.42.62.521.40.80.2-0.1-0.10.20.81.522.32.31.91.4

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