Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mathews, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 838 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Cloud cover recedes from west to east, with a sharp gradient of clear skies across the west and cloudy skies across the east.

Current surface analysis shows a low moving further offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with an expansive strong high building across the upper Midwest and western Ontario region. The gradient between these two features has resulted in the continuation of elevated winds across the region, with land-based observation sites measuring gusts of up to 20-25 kts mainly directly along the coast. Inland areas have already started to decouple and winds are much lighter.
GOES Nighttime Microphysics is depicting clear skies from roughly I- 95 west, with overcast skies in the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to lower 60s this evening, with dew points in the 50s. Guidance is suggesting that cloud cover will struggle to recede as far as SE VA and NE NC tonight, with those areas likely remaining cloudy through tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s in the piedmont to the upper 50s/near 60F along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming mostly sunny Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.

- Dry, but turning cooler Thursday with at least patchy frost possible by Thursday night/Fri AM over inland zones.

Northwest flow aloft will remain across the area Wednesday and Thursday helping usher in drier air. Enough dry air and mixing will allow mostly clear skies by Wednesday afternoon across the area, pushing out partly cloudy skies in the morning near the coast.
Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s, with the warmest temperatures west of I-95. An upper level shortwave will push through a dry cold front overnight Wednesday/early Thursday, as high pressure behind the front moves farther east towards the region.
Lows Wed night/Thu AM will be cooler, but seasonable as decoupling will not occur due to continued mixing of the N winds. Temperatures Thursday will be cooler with highs in the lower 60s on the Eastern Shore and mid 60s elsewhere. The models continue to show good agreement that the surface high pressure will become centered over the area/Appalachians Friday. With the high pressure, winds will be calm with clear skies. There will likely be good radiational cooling from mixing, which will allow temperatures to cool overnight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s (mid to upper 40s along the coast) with the coolest temperatures in the piedmont. There could be some patchy fog, but have not mentioned it in the grids yet.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are possible by the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Chances of rain increase by the end of the weekend.

By Friday, model consensus places an upper level ridge from the Gulf coast region northward to the Great Lakes, with sfc high pressure over the local area underneath the confluent NW flow aloft. Dry and cool weather will prevail with full sun and highs in the low-mid 60s. The high lingers across the SE VA and NC coastal plains Fri night, with another cool night expected (though not as cool as Thu night), with lows in the 40s. Saturday will remain dry but the high will be offshore allowing SW flow to overtake the area, bringing warmer temperatures with highs reaching back into the 70s. Then by Sunday, the ridge moves off to the east, allowing a large upper trough to move in from the W. At the surface, a cold front will advance across the area later Sun/Sun night. Ahead of the frontal passage temperatures could potentially reach into the middle to upper 70s (warmest SE). Will note there is still a bit of uncertainty as to how much moisture makes it E of the Appalachians with the core of the upper low across the Great Lakes. Will have chc PoPs, in the 30 to 50% late Sunday/Sun night. Precip will likely decrease Monday allowing temps highs in the 60s to around 70F.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 728 PM EDT Tuesday...

Flight conditions are slowly starting to improve from west to east this evening. The back edge of the large cloud shield that has been stationary across the area has moved past RIC and VFR conditions are now prevailing at that terminal. Sites farther east are still well within the thick cloud cover, but over the next few hours, conditions will quickly improve. Have maintained MVFR conditions at all terminals aside from RIC for now, with VFR conditions likely at all sites by tomorrow afternoon. SE VA/NE NC will see lingering cloud cover, so MVFR conditions will continue through early tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through the end of the week.
Winds will also be trending down overnight. Gusts of 15-20 kts are still possible at ORF tonight, with gusts of 15-20 kts returning at all terminals during the day tomorrow.

Outlook: VFR/dry, though with N winds remaining elevated Wed, (lingering into Thu along the coast). Dry with lighter winds Fri-Sat.

MARINE
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Strong Small Craft conditions continue across all waters through this evening.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions prevail across the bay and ocean waters through Friday.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1034mb high pressure moving over Lake Superior and a broad 1008mb low pressure system just off the coast of the United States. The pressure gradient from these two systems have remained consistent through the day causing strong Small Craft conditions across all waters. Winds this afternoon are sustained between 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across all waters. Seas continue to remain elevated with 2 to 4 ft seas across the bay. While across the mouth of the bay seas are reaching as high as 5 to 6 ft. Across the ocean seas are between 7 to 8 ft closer inland with 9 to 10 ft further offshore.

Through the night, the pressure gradient should weaken slightly as the low moves further offshore. However, SCA conditions will prevail across all waters except the rivers. Winds will remain between 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt. Seas will remain elevated through night with 3 to 4 ft seas across the bay and 6 to 8 ft across the ocean zones. By tomorrow morning and through most of Wednesday, winds will lower slightly, but remain sustained between 15 to 20 kt with gusts near 25 kt. The SCA for the Currituck sound and lower James are expected to expire by early Wednesday but will most likely needed to be extended as winds remain elevated. Confidence at this time is too low to extend the SCA for these zones. Then by late Wednesday, a cold front will move across the area ushering cooler and drier air. This will increase the winds back to 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt. There is small possibility that there could be a brief period of 35 kt wind gusts across the waters late Wed into early Thursday as the cooler and drier air goes over relatively warmer waters. However, confidence at this time is low. Overall, these windy conditions are expected to last through Friday. Seas through this time period will remain elevated with waves between 3 to 4 ft occasionally 5 ft across the bay. While across the ocean, waves will be between 6 to 8 ft. Due to the high confidence in the forecast and the windy conditions, the SCA that are already in place for the bay and ocean zones have been extended through Thursday morning for now. They will most likely need to be extended further as the elevated marine conditions prevail. Then by the weekend, high pressure will move over the area helping winds and seas to lower across the local waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 340 PM EDT Tuesday...

Another strong ebb tide has occurred this morning and early afternoon. This has allowed for the anomalies to continue to diminish across the Chesapeake Bay. However, as the winds continue to remain out of the N it has pushed enough south helping cause some locations across Tidewater, Hampton Roads, and the VA eastern Shore to hit Action and Minor flood stages.
Coastal Flood advisories remain in effect through this next high tide cycle. In addition, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for some counties along the York river as West Point is expected to hit low end Minor. This is most likely due to water being plugged up the York as the N wind pushes water down the bay. After this high tide cycle this evening, the water levels are expected to lower. However, some Coastal Flood Statements maybe needed as some places maybe near Action to very low-end Minor. Confidence at this time is low and will like to see how this high tide this evening performs. Trends will continue to be monitored.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ082- 089-090-093-096-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ638.