Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mathews, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible Wednesday.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible across portions of the area.

DISCUSSION
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible Wednesday.

The sfc low from the remnants of Isaias continues to slide farther offshore today. Behind it, low to mid level clouds clear this evening with some cirrus possible overnight into Tue morning.

The pattern shifts to a warm and dry one for the remainder of the workweek as a ridge aloft builds in from the central CONUS.
Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface remains centered across the northern Gulf. Highs warm into the low-mid 80s Tue. Wed will be the hottest day of the week with record-breaking highs in the upper 80s to around 90F possible (see climate section for more information). A cold front pushes into the area on Thu before stalling. This will allow for some relief from the heat across northern portions of the area where highs around 70F are possible. However, the front will likely not make it across the southern half of the area which means highs in the lower (locally mid) 80s. The greatest uncertainty will be central portions of the FA where temps could vary considerably depending on the exact position of the front. By Fri, a surface low moves into SE Canada which will push the front back north as a warm front across the local area and allow for temps to return back into the mid 80s for most (around 80F north). As such, this week has the potential to be one of the hottest weeks in mid October ever. Mostly dry conditions are expected to accompany the very warm weather apart from a low chance for a few isolated showers across northern portions of the area Wed evening into early Fri with the front.
Shower and storm chances increase Fri afternoon as a strong cold front approaches with the best chance across the Eastern Shore and along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible across portions of the area.

A strong cold front pushes through the area late Fri into Fri night.
Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure (~1036mb) builds in behind it, centering across the region on Sun. At the same time, a trough remains over the East Coast. This will allow for much cooler temperature to arrive with highs in the upper 50s north to low-mid 60s south Sat and Sun and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and mid-upper 40s near the coast Sat and Sun nights (around 50F along the immediate coastline). While exact details will need to be ironed out in the upcoming week, the potential exists for the first frost of the season across interior portions of the FA either nights with the best chance for frost across the Piedmont. Additionally, it will be breezy Fri into Sat ahead of and behind the cold front with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible (strongest winds along the coast).
The wind will make it feel even cooler on Sat.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Low pressure continues to slide offshore today. As such, cloud cover will gradually diminish from W to E through the afternoon with CIGs improving to VFR. However, SCT stratocu will continue to linger through the daylight hours (3500-4000ft CIGs ). Clouds dissipate this evening outside of FEW-SCT cirrus overnight into early Tue morning. Patchy fog is possible across the northern Piedmont as well as across the Eastern Shore late tonight into early Tue morning, potentially impacting SBY. It is also possible that low stratus forms instead of fog across the Eastern Shore (including SBY) with IFR CIGs possible. As such, added a TEMPO to account for the potential of either of these scenarios at SBY.

MARINE
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front pushes farther offshore through this evening, as high pressure builds south of the local waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most of the waters through this afternoon, with more benign boating conditions returning tonight through late week.

- A strong cold front crosses the waters late Friday into this weekend.
Strong SCA to Gale conditions are likely Friday night through early Sunday.

NW winds of 15-25 kt persist early this afternoon in the wake of a secondary surface trough. Gusts to ~30 kt in the lower Bay and southern coastal waters will gradually diminish, with SCAs across the coastal waters, Sound, and Chesapeake Bay dropping off late this afternoon through early this evening. Surface high pressure (1022+ mb) will build over the Southeast coast tonight and Tuesday, with local winds backing to the W-SW while diminishing tonight, remaining ~10 kt tomorrow and tomorrow night. Waves 2-3 ft subside to 1 ft or less tonight, while 3-5 ft Seas fall below 5 ft tonight, remaining 2- 3 ft Tuesday through midweek as winds turn offshore.

SW winds slowly increase to ~10-15 kt early Wednesday morning as high pressure builds across the Southeast coast as a weak low passes by well to our north. High pressure building across the Great Lakes will push a weak (dry) backdoor front south across the waters late Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing a quick wind shift to the NNE Thursday morning. At this time, winds look to remain below SCA thresholds with this first front. However, models continue to depict a quickly deepening surface low over the eastern Great Lakes Friday and Friday night, sending a second, much stronger cold front toward the local waters late Friday into the weekend. Strong SCA or Gale conditions are looking increasingly likely behind that front Friday night into the weekend as deep boundary layer mixing accompanies the significant cold advection.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

10/13 10/14 RIC 90/1954 87/1975 ORF 89/1954 86/1975 SBY 86/1954 86/1975 ECG 87/1990 86/1975

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.