Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mathews, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Widespread, beneficial rainfall prevails tonight through early Monday. Total rainfall will average 0.75"-1.50", with the rain tapering off to drizzle from W to E overnight/early Monday.

2) Above average temperatures prevail from Tuesday-Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS. Dry Tue-Wed, with some low end rain chances Thu-Fri.

DISCUSSION
As of 330 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread, beneficial rainfall prevails tonight through early Monday. Total rainfall will average 0.75"-1.50", with the rain tapering off to drizzle from W to E overnight/early Monday.

The latest wx analysis shows a deep upper level trough spinning over northern AL/GA this aftn, starting to phase with a northern stream trough diving SE from the Great Lakes. At the surface, primary low pressure is co-located with the upper low, but has started to occlude with a secondary sfc trough extending NE into the southern Appalachians out ahead of the upper system. In addition, a warm front extends to the ENE into northern SC. Sfc high pressure is centered over New England, leading to a modest CAD setup across the local area this aftn. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 40s across much of the area; SE portions of the CWA had been in the low-mid 50s but are now falling into the upper 40s with the arrival of the rain shield.

While the rain has been fairly widespread over the past few hrs, QPF amounts as of 3 PM have mostly been 0.30" or less. However, as the sfc warm front/sfc trough moves more to the NE this evening, the associated strong WAA in the 925-850mb layer will advect northward into NE NC, and southern and central VA, especially from 21Z-03Z (4pm-10pm), leading to an increase in the rain intensity. This area of enhanced lift will shift slowly to east by midnight, pushing offshore between 06-09Z. Total rainfall amounts since this morning still show a good consensus for 0.75-1.50" across the area, with the bulk of this occurring during the evening inland, and late evening through ~1 AM closer to the coast. Given that most of the CWA is in either D1 (moderate) or D2 (severe) drought status, this rain will be beneficial and will pose little to no flood threat as most of it fall over a 6-12 hr timeframe. The sfc low moves offshore after 06Z, with rain ending from W to E. Even at the coast, the trends are a little faster with drying aloft such that little additional QPF is expected after ~09Z/4 AM Monday morning. It still looks like N to NE wind will prevail, keeping low clouds (and possibly drizzle) lingering E of I-95 through the remainder of the morning. Clouds will start to break up well inland in the aftn, but may linger several hrs longer near the coast. Have undercut NBM highs by a few degrees for areas along and E of I-95 with more clouds, as well as the flow influenced by Bay and Ocean water temperatures in the 30s. Highs Monday range from the low- mid 50s in the far W, to only the low-mid 40s along the coast. A blustery NNE wind will make it feel quite raw and cold along the coast. Dry Mon night with lows mainly 30-35F (locally in the upper 20s ern shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures prevail from Tuesday- Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS. Dry Tue-Wed, with some low end rain chances Thu-Fri.

A fairly flat upper level ridge will become anchored from Mexico to Florida Tue-Thu, shifting east to Florida and the Bahamas late in the week. An upper level trough over western Canada and the Pacific NW will push east across the northern tier of the CONUS through the week into next weekend. This pattern will allow for above average temperatures and limit the potential for a strong backdoor cold front- though there is still the potential for a weak boundary to affect the region w/ onshore flow near the coast Thu-Fri.
Temperatures will be the warmest Wed-Fri for inland areas of central/southern VA and interior NE NC with highs well into the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Near the coast, and especially on the eastern shore, Wed could be the warmest day, with cooler conditions Thu. In addition, some low- end chances of rain are possible Thu-Fri, but at this time, there is still a lot of uncertainty. For next weekend and beyond, the pattern does show signs of breaking down, leading to temperatures gradually dropping back closer to normal, particularly by Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 645 PM EST Sunday...

Rain has become widespread this evening, however, CIGs have been slow to drop to IFR, especially across SE VA/NE NC. Expect gradually deteriorating conditions over the next couple of hours, transitioning to mainly IFR-LIFR by 02Z with areas of moderate rain. IFR VIS is also possible with areas of heavier rain.
Winds become NE and then N later tonight, increasing with gusts to ~20kt inland, and to 25kt+ along the coast after ~06Z. Rain tapers off to drizzle between 06-12Z, but IFR-LIFR CIGs persist, likely through ~15-18z Mon. Additionally, patchy fog is possible, mainly inland, into Mon morning. CIGs likely remain MVFR through the afternoon, perhaps improving to VFR at RIC by late afternoon. CIGs finally improve to VFR by Mon evening as clouds thin.

Outlook: Most areas will be dry/VFR Monday evening through midweek. A weak backdoor cold front may affect the region Thursday-Friday, possibly bringing a few showers and flight restrictions.

MARINE
As of 315 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Increasing winds are expected tonight through Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for most of the local waters, and a Gale Warning has been late tonight into Monday morning for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles.

Starting off with lighter winds out of the south this afternoon with high pressure offshore. Latest obs show 5-10kt over most of the waters with a few locations showing 10-15kt over northern waters. Winds remain at 5-10kt for the first part of the evening as winds shift to become more onshore. Low pressure progresses across southern portions of the area overnight then deepens offshore as it pulls away to the NE early tomorrow morning. Winds turn to the NNE around midnight tonight, increasing to 20-25kt over the southern waters and 15-20kt in the northern coastal waters and the bay. Winds continue to increase as they turn to the N by early tomorrow morning. Looks like wind speeds should peak in the few hours before and just after sunrise at 25 to 30kt over southern coastal waters, 20-25kt in the bay/currituck sound and northern waters, and 10 to 15kt in the rivers. Local wind probs for 34kt gusts have tightened up considerably since yesterday. Now showing the highest probs (70- 75%) out near 20nm in the NC waters and ~25-50% in the remaining NC waters and just north of the VA/NC border. The SCAs and Gale Warnings remain largely unchanged since last night, with the exception of starting the SCAs for the Currituck Sound and lower bay a little earlier, at 10pm.
With such a short ramp up period, did not see the need for a preceding SCA ahead of the Gale Warning. Therefore, it is not out of the question that the Gale Warning may need to be started a few hours earlier should conditions ramp up a bit faster than forecast. North winds decrease through the afternoon tomorrow as the low pulls away dropping down to 5-10kt by late evening.
Seas increase from the south tonight, reaching 5-8ft in southern waters tomorrow morning and 4-5ft N of Cape Charles. Waves will be around 2ft. Swell coming out from the low will keep seas a bit elevated even into tomorrow night. SCAs will likely need to extend well into Tuesday to cover 5ft seas.

Lighter southerly flow of 5-10kt expected Tuesday as high pressure slides overhead, then offshore. Gusty conditions are anticipated Wednesday as a warm front lifts across the area. SCAs will likely be needed for the rivers, bay, and sound, but forecast winds fall just short of criteria over the coastal waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630- 631-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658.