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ANZ636 York River- 1251 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue..N winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop after midnight.
Fri..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

ANZ600 1251 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure builds in from the northwest this afternoon into tonight, and spreads across the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday, before moving offshore Tuesday night. A cold front crosses the coast Wednesday, followed by strong high pressure building into the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 111808 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 108 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be centered over the region for most of this week, bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1230 PM EST Monday...

Temps as of 1220 PM ranged from the mid 40s NW to the upper 40s SE. Some left over instability behind the cold front has allowed for scattered to widespread CU to develop across the area early this afternoon. This CU was poorly modeled. Expect CU to continue through the afternoon before quickly dissipating around sunset with the loss of diurnal instability. Highs today in the mid-upper 40s NW to the lower 50s SE.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 500 AM EST Monday...

High pressure will remain centered over the region with a zonal flow aloft, bringing clear and dry conditions. Temperatures will remain seasonal through much of this week. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and low temperatures will in the 20s and lower 30s. A secondary, and a much stronger (~1042 mb), sfc high pressure will build into region as a trough off the Northeast U.S. coast deepens.
Temperatures will remain similar and dry weather continues.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the ECMWF is dry with the low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon. Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun.
Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1225 PM EST Monday...

SCT CU (3500-4500 ft CIGs) continue to build over the area this afternoon with some locations dropping to BKN at times. Clouds clear late this afternoon into this evening with the loss of diurnal instability with clear skies tonight through Tue. Winds remain NW 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt inland and 15-17 kt with gusts to 25 kt near the coast and over the Eastern Shore early this afternoon. Winds gradually diminish late this afternoon, becoming light overnight as high pressure builds in.
With high pressure overhead, winds remain light Tue, becoming SSW 5-8 kt in the afternoon.

Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected through Sat with high pressure dominating the local weather.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EST Monday...

The surface cold front has cleared the local waters early this morning. Winds have turned NW ~30 kt with gusts around 40 kt behind the boundary. Waves in the bay are 3-6 ft with seas offshore 6-9 ft.

NW winds 25-35 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt will continue for a few more hours, especially near and south of the mouth of the Ches Bay.
Winds slowly decrease through the morning with Gale Warnings coming to an end by this afternoon. Will need to issue SCA headlines for late morning into the afternoon/evening as winds average 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds fall below SCA thresholds in the bay by early tonight but 5+ ft seas will linger offshore into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the region today and lingers into mid week before another stronger (~1040mb) high moves in behind a dry frontal passage. Winds will increase behind this front with a period of SCA conditions possible Wednesday night. Seas could rise above 5 ft for the southern Atlantic waters during this timeframe as well. High pressure lingers through the end of the week with models disagreeing substantially regarding the potential for another area of low pressure this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.

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Clay Bank
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:50 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:52 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:38 PM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clay Bank, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

Mumfort Islands
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:15 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mumfort Islands, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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