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FXUS66 KHNX 071215 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 415 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023


SYNOPSIS
There is a chance for showers along the valley facing slopes in Kern County this morning. Strong wind gusts will continue along the Mojave Slopes through early Friday morning. Conditions will be dry and seasonably cool Friday through the weekend. Freezing temperatures are possible across rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley late Friday night and each subsequent night through next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Record high temperatures were set at a few locations across the San Joaquin Valley on Wednesday. Fresno and Hanford shattered the previous record high for the date by 7 and 8 degrees respectively and were both 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
Bakersfield and Madera also set new record highs with Bakersfield 20 degrees above normal as well. Today will be much cooler as an upper trough moves over the region. High temperatures are forecast to be around 2 to 5 degrees above normal this afternoon.

Little precipitation has accompanied the upper trough thus far but high resolution guidance indicates upslope showers developing over the valley facing slopes in Kern County this morning. This could result in foggy conditions along Highway 58 through the Tehachapi Mountains and Interstate 5 through the Grapevine this morning. The latest HRRR guidance is very bullish on this scenario but is often overly aggressive. The SFO-LAS pressure gradient is increasing and producing strong westerly wind gusts across eastern Kern County. A Wind Advisory remains in effect across the Mojave Slopes until 7AM Friday morning. Blowing dust may reduce visibilities at times and strong crosswinds can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

The upper trough shifts east on Friday as an upper ridge begins to build in from the Pacific. Temperatures cool to near normal Friday then nudge up a little over the weekend. Probabilistic guidance is giving rural areas of the SJ Valley a 65 to 95 percent chance of a low temperature of 32 degrees or below Saturday morning. Following mornings show gradually lower probabilities through next week. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the SJ Valley from 2 AM Saturday until 8 AM Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to trend higher next week to as much as 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday.

AVIATION
MVFR conditions in areas of mist/haze with local IFR/LIFR in fog possible through 18Z Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California over the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Thursday December 7 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for CAZ338.

Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Wednesday morning for CAZ301>303-305-306-309>312-315.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,