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PZZ531 San Francisco Bay South Of The Bay Bridge- 156 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 knots...increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of rain.
Sun..S winds around 5 knots.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 knots.
Tue..N winds around 5 knots.

PZZ500 156 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
gusty northwesterly winds will continue to dissipate tonight into the weekend. Seas become elevated from a long period northwesterly swell that starts to build Saturday, creating hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Another larger northwest swell with larger periods of 16-21 seconds causing 11-15 feet waves will build by midweek next week. Unsettled weather through the weekend may continue to bring intermittent rain showers across the northern waters through the weekend.

FXUS66 KMTR 012139 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 139 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 224 AM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Cool, unsettled weather for the next few days followed by a warming trend into early next week. An approaching trough of low pressure towards the end of the next workweek will bring the return of unsettled weather.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Filtered sunshine for a good portion of the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon as mainly high clouds stream over the region.
A thicker band of clouds cover portions of the North Bay and those are associated with an approaching cold front. Chilly start to the day and filtered sunshine have led to slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon compare to yesterday afternoon. Max temps this afternoon will top out in the 50s and 60s.

Speaking of a cold front, latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front is still lurking to the north of the Bay Area. One minor change from the forecast was to delay the onset of precip this evening/overnight as the front moves south. Models have been trending slower with precip moving into the North Bay this evening. Therefore, precip will initially remain north of the Golden Gate through roughly midnight. And by precip, we mean showers with a 15-30%. After midnight, precip chances ease southward as the front washes out over the Bay Area late tonight through Saturday. Saturday can be categorized as cooler with scattered showers into the afternoon. Not a wash out by any means, but a few showers possible nonetheless. Showers chances will lift northward late Saturday as high pressure begins to nose in from the SW.



LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Showers chances will lingering over the North Bay late Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds in from the SW. The building high pressure will lead to increased sunshine on Sunday through Tuesday with drier conditions and warmer daytime temperatures. Total rainfall will generally be a 0.10" or less most area (S of San Jose little to no precip) and possibly up to 0.50" far North Bay.

The drier weather will be short lived as the ridge of high pressure gets buffeted by another cold front. Showers return to the forecast Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Rainfall chances once again will be greatest north of the Golden Gate, but this go around shower chances do make it to Monterey county by Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled/showery weather will linger into Friday.

Once the precip tapers off on Friday the focus then turns to overnight lows. Longer range guidance suggests another round of chilly to cold night with frost/freeze conditions possible.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 AM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

VFR conditions transitioning to widespread MVFR conditions overnight. NW winds will transition to S/SW overnight and remain through the end of the TAF period. Breezy conditions continue today for portions of the Bay Area (KOAK, KSFO, KSJC) and along the Central Coast. Isolated showers overnight into Saturday across the North Bay as a weakening cold front moves through NorCal late tonight. Moderate confidence of fog development and IFR conditions overnight/early morning at KSTS due to increased atmospheric moisture and relatively calm winds. Timing of IFR conditions is slightly lower confidence with guidance suggesting IFR conditions are more likely in the early morning/towards the end of the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions transitioning to MVFR conditions Friday night/Saturday morning. NW winds have started to pick up over the airport with gusty conditions expected to continue into the evening. Model guidance continues to lean towards MVFR ceilings developing over the airport however low to moderate confidence on the duration as there is still some disagreement between models.
Guidance indicates that ceilings will likely be present through the TAF period but disagrees on whether ceilings will dissipate shortly before or after 00Z. Kept ceilings through the TAF period for now but will revise at the 03Z amendment.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Gusty VFR conditions during the day transitioning to MVFR conditions at KMRY early Saturday morning.
MVFR ceilings will persist through the TAF period at KMRY but guidance suggests ceilings are likely to dissipate shortly after 18Z. Moderate confidence that conditions will stay VFR through the TAF period at KSNS. Gusty NW winds are expected at KMRY and KSNS this afternoon with winds expected to weaken and transition from NW to S/SW overnight.

MARINE
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 832 AM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Fresh northerly breezes will persist south of Point Pinos for much of the day today with occasional gale force gusts possible near Point Sur through the afternoon as northern waters winds become calmer. Moderate period northwest swell continues and will build into the weekend. Unsettled weather through the weekend may continue to bring intermittent rain showers across the northern waters through the weekend. Long period northwest swell will arrive early next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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Gold Street Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:33 AM PST     7.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:06 AM PST     3.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:08 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:19 PM PST     9.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:49 PM PST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gold Street Bridge, Alviso Slough, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Dumbarton Point 2.3 mi NE
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:53 AM PST     1.34 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:26 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:52 AM PST     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:54 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:09 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:15 PM PST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:51 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM PST     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:49 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dumbarton Point 2.3 mi NE, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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