Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1045 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Dry and seasonable this afternoon with light winds and highs in the 70s. Min relative Humidity values fall into the 20s inland.

Latest wx analysis reveals high pressure over the local area this morning, with an upper low edging east of Atlantic Canada and an amplifying upper level ridge building over the eastern third of the CONUS.

Locally, the forecast remains on track at midday. A mainly sunny and pleasant afternoon is expected, as the surface high slowly shifts offshore through the rest of today into tonight. Dry/seasonable wx prevails this afternoon with light SSE winds 5-10 mph. Highs in the mid 70s inland, upper 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast still look on target. Td values in the 30s expected once again this afternoon, yielding min RH values between 20-25% in most areas during the aftn, with locally higher values possible near the immediate coast with the light onshore flow. However, the light winds and significant green-up over the past week to 10 days have mitigated much of our fire wx risk for now. Cool/dry tonight with light southerly flow. Forecast lows are in the mid 40s-lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected through Tuesday.

- Very warm on Wednesday with mid to upper 80s expected.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the best chances along and south of I- 64.
Organized severe weather is not expected, but a few stronger storms can't completely be ruled out.

The ridge aloft over the MS River Valley moves over the area on Tue while the sfc high shifts well to our SE. This will allow the flow to veer to the SSW and increase. Frequent gusts to 20-25 mph are likely during the day. The SSW flow will usher in warmer air as well, allowing highs to climb into the lower to mid 80s (upper 70s on the eastern shore). Still mainly dry and not that humid on on Tue with dew pts recovering to ~50F. This will result in afternoon min RH values of 30-35%. Convection will develop west of the mountains Tue aftn/evening and weaken (and eventually dissipate) as it approaches the area early Wed AM as instability will be very limited east of the mountains thanks to the lower dew pts. However, any residual boundaries from dissipating tstms may contribute to convective initiation over the local area Wed aftn. While a cold front approaches from the N on Wed, it will fail to reach the local area. Even warmer on Wed with continued SW flow. Widespread mid to upper 80s are expected with dew pts rising into the lower 60s by the aftn/evening. The higher dew pts will allow for moderate surface- based instability (1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) to develop by the afternoon. This combined with mid/upper height falls due to the ridge becoming suppressed to our SE and any residual boundaries from Tuesday's convection should allow for scattered tstms to develop across the area
While it is hard to pinpoint specifics attm
the highest tstm chances look to be along and south of I-64. The most likely timing for tstms is from 3-10 PM Wed with diurnal weakening expected overnight. While organized severe wx isn't expected as deep- layer shear will be limited, a few strong to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts likely being the main threat.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Highs will be well into the 80s on Thursday and Friday, with continued shower/storm chances.

- Cooler and dry weather returns over the weekend in the wake of a cold front.

Deepening sfc low pressure is progged to track from the Midwest to Quebec from Thursday-Friday night. This feature will drag a seasonally strong cold front toward the area late this week, and that cold front is progged to cross the area Friday night/Saturday AM. The associated shortwave trough aloft will approach on Friday before tracking over the area Saturday morning. Well above normal temps will persist through Friday as high pressure remains anchored off the SE CONUS coast, with highs well into the 80s expected inland on both days. Dew pts will be in the low to locally mid 60s, so it will be somewhat humid. Scattered showers/tstms are expected on both days as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the approaching shortwave trough...and some lead upper disturbances will likely provide the necessary lift for convection. With only modest flow aloft and mostly unidirectional wind profiles on Thu/Fri...still think that any convection will be diurnally driven with coverage peaking during the late afternoon/evening.
Isolated strong to severe storms can't be ruled out on both days...but widespread severe wx is not anticipated. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for the weekend with highs falling back in the 70s, with lows back into the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1245 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions with mainly sunny/clear conditions prevail across area terminals through the 18z/28 TAF period. Light winds shifting to the SE- SSE by mid to late afternoon as high pressure slides offshore. Winds veer to the S-SSW tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday morning. Breezy SW winds develop Tuesday, gusting to 20 kt by afternoon. A cold front approaches from the north by later Wednesday into Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. A stronger front crosses the region late Friday into Saturday, bringing a better chance for widespread showers and storms Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue into early Tuesday.

- Low-end SCAs are possible late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as S/SW winds increase.

- A prolonged period of near SCA conditions is possible from Thursday night through the weekend as winds increase ahead of and behind a series of cold fronts.

Early morning surface analysis depicted high pressure across the Ohio Valley and inland portions of the Mid-Atlantic with winds generally N ~10 kt. The high moves over the local waters later today with winds becoming NE 5-10 kt later this morning before becoming SE/E this afternoon. High pressure moves offshore tonight, allowing for winds to become S ~10 kt. S winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by late Tue afternoon into Tue evening, becoming SW Tue night. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds remain low (10- 40%) through Tue evening. However, wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds increase to 80%+ across the Ches Bay Tue night with wind probs for 25 kt wind gusts across the N coastal waters increasing to 80%+ as well. As such, marginal SCAs are possible during this timeframe.
However, given that this is largely in the fourth period, will hold off on SCAs for now.

Winds quickly diminish by Wed, remaining light through Thu. An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes Thu into Fri, with an associated cold front approaching the local waters Fri night. S/SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Thu night into early Fri night in the warm sector of the previously referenced low pressure system. The cold front pushes across the local waters Fri night with a lull in the winds Sat before a secondary cold front brings winds back to 15-20 kt Sat night. As such, SCAs are possible both ahead of and behind the first cold front late this week and behind the second cold front this weekend.

Waves and seas remain 1-2 ft and ~2 ft respectively through early Tue. Waves build to 2-3 ft Tue night with seas building to 3-4 ft.
Seas across the N coastal waters may briefly build to 4-5 ft Tue night, however, confidence is low. Another period of elevated seas arrives Fri afternoon into Fri night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.