Chester, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester, VA

June 22, 2024 6:07 AM EDT (10:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM
Moonrise 8:46 PM   Moonset 4:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 358 Am Edt Sat Jun 22 2024

Through 7 am - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Today - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, subsiding to around 1 foot in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.

Tue - NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 358 Am Edt Sat Jun 22 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains offshore through Sunday. Low pressure passing well to the north of the region will push a weakening cold front through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. A southerly wind is expected to increase late Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning ahead of the approaching front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 220738 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 338 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast slowly shifts through today, leading to an extended period of hot weather this weekend and again next week. There is a small chance for rain Sunday evening into Monday, and again later next week, but most locations will remain dry.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Hot today with heat advisory in place for portions of the area.

Early morning analysis shows surface high pressure well offshore and ~596 dm high pressure aloft over portions of the Deep South. With light southerly flow, could see some very patchy fog or low stratus develop in NE NC through sunrise where dew points are higher.
Otherwise, clear skies with morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The main story for today remains the heat. Consensus among the near- term guidance is for widespread highs in the upper 90s. Locally around 100 F is possible in the Richmond metro and surrounding I-95 corridor. With the expectation that dew points mix out into the low- mid 60s, we are forecasting highs a degree or two warmer than NBM.
This reasoning aligns with the dry conditions of late. Right along the coast, it is expected to remain in the low-mid 90s with a SSE wind. With those lower dew points, heat indices will only be a few degrees warmer than air temp and in the 98-105 F range (highest ern and SE VA, except on the eastern shore with the onshore wind). While we are not seeing widespread heat indices of 105 F or greater, will maintain the heat advisory and continue to err on the side of caution given this is the first big hot spell of the summer season.
The advisory goes through 8 PM this evening. Lows tonight will not provide a ton of relief and only drop into the mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the bay/ocean.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday with maximum temperatures both days in the mid/upper 90s to around 100 F.

- Highest heat indices (105+ F) expected Sunday, with heat advisories probable for most of the area.

- Isolated to scattered storms possible later Sunday through Monday afternoon.

The core of the heat is expected to shift E/SE some for Sunday, though hot temps will remain over the entire forecast area. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday and probably a degree or two warmer for eastern and SE VA, NE NC, and the eastern shore.
Highs range from the upper 90s for most of the area to around 100 F in the urban corridor within and surrounding Richmond. Clouds increase some later in the day across the NW so something to keep an eye on there. Guidance continues to advertise higher dew points Sunday due to strengthening southwesterly sfc flow. Soundings indeed show more moisture at and above the surface. This would lead to higher levels of humidity and thus heat indices in the afternoon.
The current forecast has heat indices between 103 and 108 F, with the highest values across eastern VA (including the eastern shore)
where the highest humidity will reside. Still, there is some uncertainty given the recent dry conditions, which could lead to more mixing and lower dew points/heat indices. While a few locations could near a 110 F heat index, coverage is too low for any excessive heat watches. Either way, WBGTs in the upper 80s to around 90 suggest the potential for significant heat stress for those outdoors and especially those participating in strenuous activities.
Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed for much of, if not all, of the forecast area Sunday. Will hold off on issuing these for Sunday and let most of today's headline play out to avoid confusion on the WWA map. Lastly, will need to keep an eye on the aftn relative humidities as a gusty SW wind and the recent dry conditions could lead to some fire wx concerns. There again will not be much relief from the heat Sunday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are still a possibility Sunday afternoon and especially in the evening and overnight hours ahead of a weak cold front. Also expecting a weak sfc trough to set up east of the mountains. As is typically the case, the NAM is most aggressive regarding convective coverage and intensity. This could be related the model being slightly more amplified and having higher dew points. SPC continues the marginal risk for the northern third of the area. This makes sense as shear is higher with northern extent (though it only peaks at ~20 kt).
Overall, this suggests loosely organized storms capable of strong to marginally severe wind gusts given steep low-level lapse rates and high DCAPE. PoPs are 20-30% in the afternoon, increasing to 30-60% (highest N and NE) in the evening and early overnight period. Chance PoPs linger through most of the night with the boundary nearby.
Still, this does not look to be a widespread beneficial rainfall to alleviate the developing drought over the area, with only ~0.10- 0.20" of QPF in the forecast for portions of the area through Sunday night.

The front will be located across the SE Monday and continue to trend the best chances for showers and storms further SE. If current trends in the guidance continue, it may stay dry for most of the area, outside of far SE VA and NE NC. There will be ample instability along and ahead of the front so any storm again will be capable of producing strong to marginally severe wind gusts, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rain. It also continues to look hot with high temps in the low-mid 90s. The highest dew points will reside across the SE VA and NE NC and heat indices of around 105 F are expected. The one caveat is storms could initiate as early as late morning or early afternoon in these areas given the moist/hot/unstable airmass, potentially preventing the high-end temp potential from being realized. Overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s inland and lower 70s closer to the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- The heat builds again midweek, with temperatures again increasing well into the 90s.

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area.

The cold front does very little to provide any heat relief as temps Tuesday remain in the lower 90s. Even hotter Wednesday and we again could be talking about temps nearing 100 F, though the latest NBM is a degree or two shy of triple digits. Heat indices increase increase to 100-105 F, but this is again dependent on the degree of BL mixing in the afternoon. An isolated storm or two could also spill into our western counties. By Thursday, another cold front approaches from the NW and will continue chance PoPs for the area. Models favor the highest coverage over the S and SE. Still, widespread rainfall is not expected with this feature and probabilities of such remain quite low through the extended period. Guidance is warmer in the late week period and most areas may stay in the lower 90s.

The upcoming dry conditions will only exacerbate the recent dry spell and it looks to set us up for what is considered a "flash drought". More information on this can be found on CPC's Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or drought.gov.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through much of the 06z TAF period, with mainly clear sky through the late night hours.
There is some potential for MVFR CIGs to work into far SE portions of the area over the next few hrs and already seeing sporadic reports of CIGs around 1500 ft. Greater confidence at ECG vs ORF. Not expecting impactful VSBY restrictions, though could briefly drop to MVFR (3-5 SM) at ECG. S/SSE winds around 5-7 kt early this morning, becoming 5-10 kt this aftn (E-SE along the coast with the sea breeze).

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon, as high pressure remains centered off the coast. There is a low chance for some isolated to widely scattered storms Sun evening and again on Mon afternoon into Mon evening.

MARINE
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

-The wind increases Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with SCA conditions likely Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

-Moderate Rip Current Risk continues through the weekend.

High pressure is centered off the Carolina coast early this morning. The wind is mainly SSW 10-15kt with seas ranging from 2-3ft S to ~3ft N and waves in the Ches. Bay ~2ft. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast today into tonight. Similar conditions should persist through early aftn, before a late aftn/early evening diurnal shift to SSE and increase to ~15kt for the Ches. Bay and ocean N of Cape Henry (10-15kt elsewhere).
The wind shifts to SW later tonight and will mainly be 10-15kt, with 15-20kt possible across the middle Ches. Bay, and 15-20kt for the northern ocean zones. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the middle Ches. Bay for a 3-6hr period late tonight into early Sunday. However, SCA flags will not be issued at this time given that it is borderline. Seas build to 3-4ft N late this aftn into tonight (mainly 2-3ft S) with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 2-3ft with the diurnal wind shift and increase in wind speed.

A weakening cold front slowly approaches from the NW later tonight through Sunday night. The pressure gradient tightens over the ocean Sunday aftn/evening with a 30-40kt LLJ developing Sunday night. A 20-25kt SSW wind is expected to develop over the ocean, with minimal gustiness as a very warm airmass advects over relatively cooler water. This is expected to result in seas building to 4-6ft N of Cape Charles later Sunday aftn into Sunday night. SCA conditions are likely for the ocean later Sunday aftn into Sunday night. However, there is still some uncertainty with respect to convection (or convective outflows)
and what impact that will have on the synoptic flow, so no SCAs have been issued at this time. Additionally, a SW wind increases to 15-20kt for the Ches. Bay Sunday night with marginal SCA conditions possible for the Bay (and potentially the lower James and Currituck Sound). The pressure gradient slackens Monday into Tuesday as the weakening cold front settles into the area and washes out. High pressure rebuilds offshore by the middle of next week with sub-SCA southerly flow returning. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft Monday into the middle of next week with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Rip currents: A moderate rip risk will continue this weekend for all beaches with some SE swell ~3ft with ~8s periods. Confidence of moderate is higher for the northern beaches today and Sunday, but southerly flow and a longshore current may preclude a high risk.

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures for Saturday, June 22:

- RIC: 101 (1933)
- ORF: 99 (1981)
- SBY: 98 (1988)
- ECG: 98 (1942)

Record high minimum temperatures for Sunday, June 23:

- RIC: 76 (2010)
- ORF: 79 (2015)
- SBY: 75 (1925)
- ECG: 78 (2015)

Record high temperatures for Sunday, June 23:

- RIC: 101 (1988)
- ORF: 99 (2015)
- SBY: 99 (1988)
- ECG: 99 (2011)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075>078-080>086-088>090- 092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 34 mi44 minSSW 5.8G7.8 73°F 83°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 35 mi98 minSSW 1 74°F 30.1271°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi50 minSSW 11G16 76°F 79°F30.11


Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: FCI
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Tide / Current for Chester, James River, Virginia
   
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Chester
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Sat -- 04:44 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:29 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:30 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.9
3
am
2.8
4
am
3.3
5
am
3.4
6
am
3.2
7
am
2.7
8
am
2.1
9
am
1.5
10
am
1
11
am
0.6
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
2.4
5
pm
2.8
6
pm
2.8
7
pm
2.5
8
pm
1.9
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
0.5


Tide / Current for Haxall, James River, Virginia
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Haxall
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Sat -- 04:13 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:59 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:17 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Haxall, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
1.6
2
am
2.5
3
am
3.1
4
am
3.3
5
am
3.2
6
am
2.8
7
am
2.2
8
am
1.6
9
am
1.1
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.3
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
1.4
3
pm
2.2
4
pm
2.6
5
pm
2.8
6
pm
2.6
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1
10
pm
0.6
11
pm
0.4


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Wakefield, VA,




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