Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester, VA
December 7, 2023 8:48 AM EST (13:48 UTC)
Sunrise 7:09AM Sunset 4:53PM Moonrise 1:40AM Moonset 1:40PM
ANZ636 York River- 820 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft, increasing to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, diminishing to around 2 ft after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
Rest of today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft, increasing to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, diminishing to around 2 ft after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 820 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure builds in from the west today, then gradually slides off the southeast coast on Friday. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the local waters Sunday through Sunday night.
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure builds in from the west today, then gradually slides off the southeast coast on Friday. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the local waters Sunday through Sunday night.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 071045 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 545 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds south of the area today, before pushing offshore Friday into Saturday. A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 340 AM EST Thursday...
Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS. Aloft, mid-level ridging is building east of the Mississippi River this morning, as the upper trough that pushed through our region yesterday pushes farther offshore.
To the west, deepening low pressure over western Canada and the northern Rockies continues to build east toward the northern high plains. This system and a potent southern stream shortwave will combine to bring our next weather-maker to the region late in the upcoming weekend.
Cool and dry across the region today. High pressure will continue to build to our south centered south of the local area. A shortwave will pass us by on the northern periphery of the building mid-level ridge, leading to a bit of increased mid to high-level cloudiness across the northeastern half of the forecast area. Otherwise, it'll be mostly sunny for most with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Not quite as cold tonight with light SW flow across the region. Look for early morning lows to range from the mid-upper 20s NW to the mid to upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...
Remaining dry through Saturday, with temperatures moderating as surface high pressure slides offshore Friday, then moves well out to sea Friday night through the weekend. The increasingly southerly flow will allow for a quick moderating trend to temperatures, with continued dry weather to prevail Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains Friday night.
That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the mid- low 30s NW to the 40s across the S/SE. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will range from the upper 50s to around 60 N to the upper 60s S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...
All attention then turns to our next weather maker Sunday and Sunday night, as previously referenced strong cold front approaches and crosses the region. Out ahead of the front, PW values surge from 0.5-0.75 Sat night to ~1.50" by late in the day Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will remain well into the 50s to near 60 Sat night into Sunday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s expected Sunday on breezy SSW winds. Rain chances will increase from west to east after midnight late Saturday night into Sunday morning in the piedmont, into the day Sunday over the rest of the area. Highest rain chances still appear likely during the Sunday late afternoon to Sunday night time frame. This system certainly has the potential to bring some beneficial rainfall to the region, with the latest ensemble means of both the 00z GEFS and EPS now showing a large swath of ~1.00" to 1.50" areawide, with locally higher totals likely. WPC has the entire region highlighted in a Day 4 Marginal ERO and we will need to keep an eye on the potential for at least some localized flooding, especially in flood-prone and urban areas.
The concern for at least localized strong to severe storms continues to slowly build, as well. Given such a dynamic system and very strong winds just off the surface (latest GFS/ECMWF each depict 925mb winds cranking to ~45-50 kt Sunday evening).
Availability of shear is not in question, either with 30-40 kt of 0-1km shear progged by both GFS/ECMWF. Rather, the primary challenge/issue is the degree of instability in the pseudo-warm sector ahead of the approaching frontal system, and this will need to be monitored over the next 2-3 days. For now, have included Thunder chances for the entire area and edged PoPs into categorical to high-end likely range (70-90% Sunday into Sunday night) with rain chances ramping back down Monday morning as the front crosses offshore.
While SPC does not yet have our area highlighted, machine learning models continue to key in at the possibility of severe weather/damaging wind gusts across the region on Sunday. early morning data from both CIPS SVR Analog and the CSU Machine-Learning Page are each showing an increasing signal for SVR probs over the lower mid-Atlantic for this time frame. Stay tuned and pay close attention as we continue to refine the forecast over the next couple of days.
Rain should come to an end quickly in the wake of the front late Sunday night into Monday morning, as high pressure builds back into the region. Becoming gusty behind the front on Monday with highs only in the 50s. Winds ease Monday night and Tuesday, with dry conditions and cooler temperatures to prevail for the first half of next week.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 545 AM EST Thursday...
VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail through the 12z/07 TAF period. Mainly clear early this morning light winds, increasing to 7-10 kt with gusts to ~15 kt (mainly at ORF/PHF/SBY)
late this morning and this afternoon. Mid-level cloud cover will return over roughly the NE half of the area, becoming SCT- BKN at RIC and SBY in the aftn.
Outlook: VFR/dry conditions prevail through the remainder of the work week. A strong cold front approaches from the west from Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub- VFR conditions and gusty winds, along with additional periods of rainfall.
MARINE
As of 340 AM EST Thursday...
High pressure is centered over the Southeast U.S. and is bringing colder air in this morning. This is keeping the NW winds elevated early this morning. The center of the high will shift east towards the GA coast this afternoon, allowing for winds the diminish throughout the morning. Winds will become SW ~15 kt this afternoon with the high remaining centered to our south. A weak sfc trough will track from NW to SE over the Northeast U.S. later today, which may result in an uptick in SW winds tonight to 15-20 kt. A Small Craft Advisory remain in effect this morning for the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters until 7 A.M. this morning. SCA will continue into the afternoon for ocean waters south of Cape Charles for seas around 5 ft.
The center of high pressure will move over the Atlantic Ocean on Friday and winds turn S and diminish to 10 kt or less. This will allow seas to further diminish to 2-3 ft and waves to 1-2 ft. Benign conditions continue for the first part of the weekend with the high remains just off the coast.
Still looks like a strong storm system will impact the area on Sunday and into Monday. Strong southerly winds are expected on Sunday and a low pressure system track just inland from the coast.
South winds with gale force gusts are possible through the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. The low pressure will continue to strengthen as it move north of the area and as cold air moves in.
Therefore, gale conditions are also possible as winds become NW late Sunday night or Monday as the low tracks away from the area.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 545 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds south of the area today, before pushing offshore Friday into Saturday. A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 340 AM EST Thursday...
Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS. Aloft, mid-level ridging is building east of the Mississippi River this morning, as the upper trough that pushed through our region yesterday pushes farther offshore.
To the west, deepening low pressure over western Canada and the northern Rockies continues to build east toward the northern high plains. This system and a potent southern stream shortwave will combine to bring our next weather-maker to the region late in the upcoming weekend.
Cool and dry across the region today. High pressure will continue to build to our south centered south of the local area. A shortwave will pass us by on the northern periphery of the building mid-level ridge, leading to a bit of increased mid to high-level cloudiness across the northeastern half of the forecast area. Otherwise, it'll be mostly sunny for most with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Not quite as cold tonight with light SW flow across the region. Look for early morning lows to range from the mid-upper 20s NW to the mid to upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...
Remaining dry through Saturday, with temperatures moderating as surface high pressure slides offshore Friday, then moves well out to sea Friday night through the weekend. The increasingly southerly flow will allow for a quick moderating trend to temperatures, with continued dry weather to prevail Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains Friday night.
That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the mid- low 30s NW to the 40s across the S/SE. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will range from the upper 50s to around 60 N to the upper 60s S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...
All attention then turns to our next weather maker Sunday and Sunday night, as previously referenced strong cold front approaches and crosses the region. Out ahead of the front, PW values surge from 0.5-0.75 Sat night to ~1.50" by late in the day Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will remain well into the 50s to near 60 Sat night into Sunday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s expected Sunday on breezy SSW winds. Rain chances will increase from west to east after midnight late Saturday night into Sunday morning in the piedmont, into the day Sunday over the rest of the area. Highest rain chances still appear likely during the Sunday late afternoon to Sunday night time frame. This system certainly has the potential to bring some beneficial rainfall to the region, with the latest ensemble means of both the 00z GEFS and EPS now showing a large swath of ~1.00" to 1.50" areawide, with locally higher totals likely. WPC has the entire region highlighted in a Day 4 Marginal ERO and we will need to keep an eye on the potential for at least some localized flooding, especially in flood-prone and urban areas.
The concern for at least localized strong to severe storms continues to slowly build, as well. Given such a dynamic system and very strong winds just off the surface (latest GFS/ECMWF each depict 925mb winds cranking to ~45-50 kt Sunday evening).
Availability of shear is not in question, either with 30-40 kt of 0-1km shear progged by both GFS/ECMWF. Rather, the primary challenge/issue is the degree of instability in the pseudo-warm sector ahead of the approaching frontal system, and this will need to be monitored over the next 2-3 days. For now, have included Thunder chances for the entire area and edged PoPs into categorical to high-end likely range (70-90% Sunday into Sunday night) with rain chances ramping back down Monday morning as the front crosses offshore.
While SPC does not yet have our area highlighted, machine learning models continue to key in at the possibility of severe weather/damaging wind gusts across the region on Sunday. early morning data from both CIPS SVR Analog and the CSU Machine-Learning Page are each showing an increasing signal for SVR probs over the lower mid-Atlantic for this time frame. Stay tuned and pay close attention as we continue to refine the forecast over the next couple of days.
Rain should come to an end quickly in the wake of the front late Sunday night into Monday morning, as high pressure builds back into the region. Becoming gusty behind the front on Monday with highs only in the 50s. Winds ease Monday night and Tuesday, with dry conditions and cooler temperatures to prevail for the first half of next week.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 545 AM EST Thursday...
VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail through the 12z/07 TAF period. Mainly clear early this morning light winds, increasing to 7-10 kt with gusts to ~15 kt (mainly at ORF/PHF/SBY)
late this morning and this afternoon. Mid-level cloud cover will return over roughly the NE half of the area, becoming SCT- BKN at RIC and SBY in the aftn.
Outlook: VFR/dry conditions prevail through the remainder of the work week. A strong cold front approaches from the west from Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub- VFR conditions and gusty winds, along with additional periods of rainfall.
MARINE
As of 340 AM EST Thursday...
High pressure is centered over the Southeast U.S. and is bringing colder air in this morning. This is keeping the NW winds elevated early this morning. The center of the high will shift east towards the GA coast this afternoon, allowing for winds the diminish throughout the morning. Winds will become SW ~15 kt this afternoon with the high remaining centered to our south. A weak sfc trough will track from NW to SE over the Northeast U.S. later today, which may result in an uptick in SW winds tonight to 15-20 kt. A Small Craft Advisory remain in effect this morning for the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters until 7 A.M. this morning. SCA will continue into the afternoon for ocean waters south of Cape Charles for seas around 5 ft.
The center of high pressure will move over the Atlantic Ocean on Friday and winds turn S and diminish to 10 kt or less. This will allow seas to further diminish to 2-3 ft and waves to 1-2 ft. Benign conditions continue for the first part of the weekend with the high remains just off the coast.
Still looks like a strong storm system will impact the area on Sunday and into Monday. Strong southerly winds are expected on Sunday and a low pressure system track just inland from the coast.
South winds with gale force gusts are possible through the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. The low pressure will continue to strengthen as it move north of the area and as cold air moves in.
Therefore, gale conditions are also possible as winds become NW late Sunday night or Monday as the low tracks away from the area.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 34 mi | 43 min | SW 3.9G | 35°F | 50°F | |||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 35 mi | 79 min | WSW 1.9 | 26°F | 30.18 | 25°F | ||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 49 mi | 49 min | W 5.1G | 37°F | 50°F | 30.15 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFCI RICHMOND EXECUTIVECHESTERFIELD COUNTY,VA | 8 sm | 52 min | calm | Clear | 30°F | 25°F | 80% | |||
| KRIC RICHMOND INTL,VA | 10 sm | 54 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 30°F | 25°F | 80% | 30.18 | |
| KPTB DINWIDDIE COUNTY,VA | 15 sm | 13 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 25°F | 74% | 30.20 | |
| KOFP HANOVER COUNTY MUNI,VA | 23 sm | 54 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 30°F | 27°F | 86% | 30.20 |
Wind History from FCI
(wind in knots)Chester
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:39 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:52 AM EST 0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:47 AM EST 2.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EST 0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:39 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:52 AM EST 0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:47 AM EST 2.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EST 0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 2.2 |
| 11 am |
| 2.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.2 |
Haxall
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:38 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 04:59 AM EST 0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:16 AM EST 2.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:39 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:50 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 05:47 PM EST 0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:41 PM EST 2.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:38 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 04:59 AM EST 0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:16 AM EST 2.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:39 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:50 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 05:47 PM EST 0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:41 PM EST 2.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Haxall, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.3 |
| 11 am |
| 2.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.3 |
Wakefield, VA,
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