Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester, VA
May 16, 2024 5:32 PM EDT (21:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 12:48 PM Moonset 1:42 AM |
ANZ636 York River- 257 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Through 7 pm - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
ANZ600 257 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system lingers just offshore today, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system moves in Saturday night with another round of elevated winds and seas Sunday and Monday.
a low pressure system lingers just offshore today, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system moves in Saturday night with another round of elevated winds and seas Sunday and Monday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 162000 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening, then pushes further offshore tonight. Mainly dry conditions prevail through Friday afternoon, but widespread showers and a few storms return Friday night through the weekend. Dry weather returns early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
- Mainly dry tonight through early/mid aftn Friday, with scattered showers and storms possible late (mainly W of I-95).
The latest WX analysis indicates ~1000mb sfc low pressure centered off the coast of DE/NJ, with the upper low a bit to the north, and slowly filling. Enough residual low level moisture remains across the eastern shore with mainly cloudy skies (and a few showers just off the coast). Elsewhere, it is partly sunny with SCT- BKN cumulus and NNW low level flow. Temperatures are in the mid 70s to around 80F most places, though it is only in the upper 60s to lower 70s on the eastern shore. Will maintain ~20% PoPs for isolated showers on the eastern shore through the early evening, with ~15-20% PoPs across the piedmont from 21Z-03Z for an isolated shower/tstm that may drift to the E (sfc-based CAPE will be ~1000 J/Kg in this region into the early evening). Any lingering showers or isolated tstms should quickly dissipate by 8-11 PM, with dry conditions thereafter.
Becoming mostly clear late in the evening, with lows in the mid 50s inland, to around 60F at the coast. There is some potential for some low level marine clouds to push onshore well after midnight, so the sky may become partly-mostly cloudy towards sunrise Fri.
Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the area Friday morning before moving offshore late in the day.
The low level flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid- upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s well inland.
The next system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas E of I-95 will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Becoming unsettled with widespread showers and locally heavy rain possible Friday night through Saturday night.
- Showers continue on Sunday with high temperatures only in the 60s across much of the area.
The pattern this weekend continues to look unsettled with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall as a slow moving system affects the entire region. An upper shortwave is progged to slowly track east from the MS River Valley Fri night/Sat, reaching into SW VA/NC by Sat night/Sunday AM, and gradually moving across SE VA and NC late Sun/Sun night. At the surface, high pressure will be centered to our NE along/off the New England coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure tracking just S of the upper low/trough. The guidance continues to show precipitable water values rising to 1.60-1.80" by Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift expected over the region in advance of that upper shortwave. Off and on rain likely continues through much of the weekend before rain chances end from north to south later Sun/Sun night. The heaviest rain is expected across most areas Sat aftn/Sat night, though areas along and W of I-95 will also see the potential for heavy rain Fri night. PWs drop off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves overhead. With E flow expected on Saturday (becoming NE on Sun), high temps will be below average (highs in the mid 60s-lower 70s on Sat with 60s across much of the area on Sun). As such, sfc- based instability will be quite limited after Fri/Fri evening. That said, could still see a rumble of thunder or two across southern portions of the area on Sat, with mainly showers expected by Sunday. WPC currently has a Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy rainfall of the back on Tue night, will need to monitor trends as this will likely lead to additional/continued hydro concerns. At this time, the forecast through 00z/Mon (8 PM Sunday) has 2-3" of areal average QPF across most of south central VA and 1-2" most other places (except for lower amounts on the eastern shore). If this forecast continues, we will need to consider a Flood Watch for some portions of the area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry weather returns next week.
- Below average temperatures continue on Monday (especially near the coast), with warming temps expected by midweek.
High pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW during the early and middle part of next week. Still relatively cooler (and potentially cloudy with a few showers near the coast) on Monday with continued onshore flow (the GFS/GEFS remains the slowest and potentially wettest for Monday compared to the other guidance and NBM). Dry wx is expected from Mon night through much of Wed as the high builds over the area before moving offshore. There is a chc for some late day convection Wed. Again, highs will stay a bit below avg on Monday, but warm to near to above avg by the middle of the week.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR this aftn with gusty NNW winds (to ~20 kt). The sky is mainly OVC on the eastern shore, and SCT-BKN elsewhere. Winds diminish this evening, with VFR conditions, though the marine layer is expected to shift onshore after 06Z, with mainly MVFR CIGs possible (especially near the coast at SBY/ORF). MVFR conds may persist through late morning at the coast, then mainly VFR Fri aftn with E-NE winds.
Outlook: A slow moving low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers (and flight restrictions likely) Sunday into early Monday.
MARINE
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions from waves 3-5 ft over the northern coastal waters through Friday.
- Increasing NE winds and waves for the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are expected once again for the entire marine area. Winds gusting to 20 to 30 kt and seas building to 4 to 7 feet.
Low pressure off the New Jersey coast continues to keep N-NW winds across the area. However, these winds are gradually subsiding as the low moves east. As such, will allow the small craft advisory in the bay to expire. Will need to continue the SCA for the northern coastal waters due to wave heights up to 5 feet.
Weak high pressure builds over the waters on Friday allowing winds to decrease to 10 kt or less through Friday night. Low pressure then develops over the Mississippi Valley Friday into Friday night, while high pressure builds over New England. The low will slowly move east through the weekend while the high stays nearly stationary. This will allow for an onshore E-NE flow to develop and increase through the weekend with small craft advisory conditions expected by Saturday night. The pattern is very slow to evolve, and small craft advisory conditions will likely extend until Monday. Gales are not expected on Sunday, although winds may gust to 30 kt, especially in over the central coastal waters and lower Ches Bay.
HYDROLOGY
As of 1145 AM EDT Thursday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville, Nottoway River near Rawlings, and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Rawlings are expected to crest today, with levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek cresting Friday. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts in the 1-2" range could lead to additional flooding across these same areas into the early portion of next week.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening, then pushes further offshore tonight. Mainly dry conditions prevail through Friday afternoon, but widespread showers and a few storms return Friday night through the weekend. Dry weather returns early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
- Mainly dry tonight through early/mid aftn Friday, with scattered showers and storms possible late (mainly W of I-95).
The latest WX analysis indicates ~1000mb sfc low pressure centered off the coast of DE/NJ, with the upper low a bit to the north, and slowly filling. Enough residual low level moisture remains across the eastern shore with mainly cloudy skies (and a few showers just off the coast). Elsewhere, it is partly sunny with SCT- BKN cumulus and NNW low level flow. Temperatures are in the mid 70s to around 80F most places, though it is only in the upper 60s to lower 70s on the eastern shore. Will maintain ~20% PoPs for isolated showers on the eastern shore through the early evening, with ~15-20% PoPs across the piedmont from 21Z-03Z for an isolated shower/tstm that may drift to the E (sfc-based CAPE will be ~1000 J/Kg in this region into the early evening). Any lingering showers or isolated tstms should quickly dissipate by 8-11 PM, with dry conditions thereafter.
Becoming mostly clear late in the evening, with lows in the mid 50s inland, to around 60F at the coast. There is some potential for some low level marine clouds to push onshore well after midnight, so the sky may become partly-mostly cloudy towards sunrise Fri.
Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the area Friday morning before moving offshore late in the day.
The low level flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid- upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s well inland.
The next system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas E of I-95 will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Becoming unsettled with widespread showers and locally heavy rain possible Friday night through Saturday night.
- Showers continue on Sunday with high temperatures only in the 60s across much of the area.
The pattern this weekend continues to look unsettled with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall as a slow moving system affects the entire region. An upper shortwave is progged to slowly track east from the MS River Valley Fri night/Sat, reaching into SW VA/NC by Sat night/Sunday AM, and gradually moving across SE VA and NC late Sun/Sun night. At the surface, high pressure will be centered to our NE along/off the New England coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure tracking just S of the upper low/trough. The guidance continues to show precipitable water values rising to 1.60-1.80" by Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift expected over the region in advance of that upper shortwave. Off and on rain likely continues through much of the weekend before rain chances end from north to south later Sun/Sun night. The heaviest rain is expected across most areas Sat aftn/Sat night, though areas along and W of I-95 will also see the potential for heavy rain Fri night. PWs drop off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves overhead. With E flow expected on Saturday (becoming NE on Sun), high temps will be below average (highs in the mid 60s-lower 70s on Sat with 60s across much of the area on Sun). As such, sfc- based instability will be quite limited after Fri/Fri evening. That said, could still see a rumble of thunder or two across southern portions of the area on Sat, with mainly showers expected by Sunday. WPC currently has a Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy rainfall of the back on Tue night, will need to monitor trends as this will likely lead to additional/continued hydro concerns. At this time, the forecast through 00z/Mon (8 PM Sunday) has 2-3" of areal average QPF across most of south central VA and 1-2" most other places (except for lower amounts on the eastern shore). If this forecast continues, we will need to consider a Flood Watch for some portions of the area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry weather returns next week.
- Below average temperatures continue on Monday (especially near the coast), with warming temps expected by midweek.
High pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW during the early and middle part of next week. Still relatively cooler (and potentially cloudy with a few showers near the coast) on Monday with continued onshore flow (the GFS/GEFS remains the slowest and potentially wettest for Monday compared to the other guidance and NBM). Dry wx is expected from Mon night through much of Wed as the high builds over the area before moving offshore. There is a chc for some late day convection Wed. Again, highs will stay a bit below avg on Monday, but warm to near to above avg by the middle of the week.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR this aftn with gusty NNW winds (to ~20 kt). The sky is mainly OVC on the eastern shore, and SCT-BKN elsewhere. Winds diminish this evening, with VFR conditions, though the marine layer is expected to shift onshore after 06Z, with mainly MVFR CIGs possible (especially near the coast at SBY/ORF). MVFR conds may persist through late morning at the coast, then mainly VFR Fri aftn with E-NE winds.
Outlook: A slow moving low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers (and flight restrictions likely) Sunday into early Monday.
MARINE
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions from waves 3-5 ft over the northern coastal waters through Friday.
- Increasing NE winds and waves for the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are expected once again for the entire marine area. Winds gusting to 20 to 30 kt and seas building to 4 to 7 feet.
Low pressure off the New Jersey coast continues to keep N-NW winds across the area. However, these winds are gradually subsiding as the low moves east. As such, will allow the small craft advisory in the bay to expire. Will need to continue the SCA for the northern coastal waters due to wave heights up to 5 feet.
Weak high pressure builds over the waters on Friday allowing winds to decrease to 10 kt or less through Friday night. Low pressure then develops over the Mississippi Valley Friday into Friday night, while high pressure builds over New England. The low will slowly move east through the weekend while the high stays nearly stationary. This will allow for an onshore E-NE flow to develop and increase through the weekend with small craft advisory conditions expected by Saturday night. The pattern is very slow to evolve, and small craft advisory conditions will likely extend until Monday. Gales are not expected on Sunday, although winds may gust to 30 kt, especially in over the central coastal waters and lower Ches Bay.
HYDROLOGY
As of 1145 AM EDT Thursday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville, Nottoway River near Rawlings, and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Rawlings are expected to crest today, with levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek cresting Friday. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts in the 1-2" range could lead to additional flooding across these same areas into the early portion of next week.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ652.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 34 mi | 32 min | WNW 9.7G | 76°F | 72°F | |||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 35 mi | 62 min | NW 1 | 79°F | 29.74 | 62°F | ||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 49 mi | 44 min | NW 12G | 75°F | 69°F | 29.73 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFCI RICHMOND EXECUTIVECHESTERFIELD COUNTY,VA | 8 sm | 36 min | NNW 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 61°F | 54% | ||
| KRIC RICHMOND INTL,VA | 10 sm | 38 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 57°F | 48% | 29.76 | |
| KPTB DINWIDDIE COUNTY,VA | 15 sm | 17 min | WNW 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 57°F | 48% | 29.77 | |
| KOFP HANOVER COUNTY MUNI,VA | 23 sm | 38 min | var 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 59°F | 54% | 29.78 |
Chester
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:42 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:51 AM EDT 2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:42 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:51 AM EDT 2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.9 |
| 1 am |
| 2.6 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 2.4 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.7 |
Haxall
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 11:20 AM EDT 2.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:51 PM EDT 0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT 2.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 11:20 AM EDT 2.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:51 PM EDT 0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT 2.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Haxall, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.7 |
| 1 am |
| 2.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.7 |
| 9 am |
| 2.2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.6 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Wakefield, VA,
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