NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Continued dry and seasonably warm through Thursday.

Latest analysis shows a broad ~1022+mb high pressure over the Mid- Atlantic region, extending north into western New England.
Aloft, quasi-zonal flow prevails over the eastern third of the CONUS with weak upper ridging slowly building along the southeast coast. TC Francine continues to organize as it lifts slowly northeast over the western gulf coast. Thin mid-high level cloud cover associated with Francine is just nudging into southern portions of the area, with most of the gulf moisture associated with the system still lingering across the deep south this morning. Temperatures at sunrise were mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s well inland, w/ mid 50s to low 60s across the rest of the area, with some areas of patchy fog noted on early morning satellite imagery across the MD eastern shore and over south central VA and coastal NE NC.

The surface high pressure to the north gradually slides off the NE coast through this evening. Highs today similar of those of Tuesday in the low-mid 80s. A bit more noticeable mid to high cloud cover late today and especially by late this evening. PWs and dry antecedent dry airmass should preclude any chances for precipitation through Thursday, but increasing clouds will hold lows up a bit more tonight. Early morning lows Thursday morning mainly in the mid- upper 50s inland, lower to middle 60s at the coast.

Surface high will be offshore of New England tomorrow, and begins to ridge south into the mid- Atlantic region. TC Francine will lift north across the deep south (ArkLaMiss) region on Thursday, and will interact with shortwave energy crossing in from the southern plains on Thursday. This, along with emerging Rex Block pattern to the north over the Great Lakes will serve to slow the speed of the system down considerably into the short term period. That high pressure centered to our northwest will keep the area dry on Thursday. However, with the increased high level cloud cover, temperatures do drop off slightly, with highs in the lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry and slightly cooler with increased cloud cover Thu/Fri.

- Scattered light rain showers possible inland Friday afternoon and evening.

Milder though dry with continued lingering partly to mostly cloudy conditions Thursday night. Lows in the 60s. On Friday, A shear axis or narrow frontal zone gets pushed in our direction, as the remnant low of Francine lingers over the mid- South region. The dry antecedent airmass will keep chances of PoPs low, but there is a chance for some light rain showers or sprinkles, with the best chances in the far SW piedmont (I-85 corridor) into south central VA and interior NE NC. Have maintained a slight chance PoP (15-20%), but kept QPF no higher than a hundredth or two given good overall agreement, as high pressure to the north remains dominant and weak CAD reinforces dry airmass over the region. Highs on Friday will be cooler again with the cloud cover and light onshore flow with highs in upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mainly partly to mostly cloudy and dry again on Saturday, though renewed weak overrunning moisture maintains a low scattered rain shower chance on Saturday afternoon. Highs again in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- Possible unsettled weather into the weekend, with increase in cloud cover. Scattered light precipitation will be possible, though rainfall amounts are likely to be far from impressive.

- Rain chances look a bit better for the middle of next week.

Latest 00z/11 ensemble continues good agreement with synoptic details into the weekend, but diverge a bit thereafter. The remnant low of Hurricane Francine continues to weaken to a sfc trough over southeast this weekend, with some lingering showers along that coastal trough that could push up into the SE third of the local area on Sunday. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the interior northeast keeps the mid- Atlantic region mainly dry.

Looking ahead, model trends are a bit mixed with what occurs with the remnant moisture of Francine by early to mid-next week. The GFS solution that forms another (possibly tropical?)
low off the Carolina coast Tue-Wed of next week now has garnered some support from the ECMWF/CMC and to a lesser degree their parent ensembles. However, both of the latter models are a bit slower with the progression. With this in mind, and with typical model jostling still ongoing, have not gone quite as high as the NBM PoPs indicate for next Tue and Wed. For now, it is a positive development that chances for some much-needed rainfall do increase (20-30%) later Tue and Wed. As far as temperatures go, readings look to remain seasonable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning become E-ESE 5-10kt this afternoon. Some lingering ground fog around the KECG terminal should mix out quickly after sunrise with mainly SKC aside from potentially some SCT CU developing during the afternoon hours.

Outlook: Expect prevailing VFR conditions to continue tonight through late this week, as high pressure builds into the region.

MARINE
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine weather expected through tonight.

- Winds, waves and seas will increase and build for Thursday through the weekend.

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over srn New England. Winds were SW-NW 5-10 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were ~2 ft. The high will slide off the srn New England coast later today, and remain there into Fri morning, as low pressure lifts slowly nwrd into the MS Valley. Another area of high pressure will build over the NE U.S., then slide off the coast for later Fri through Sun. Winds will become NW or N this morning, then becoming NE-SE this aftn.

Strong high pressure centered to the N or NE of the region will lead to a period of prolonged ENE flow with building waves/seas for later Thu into Sun night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected today through Thu night, with waves building to 2-3 ft and seas building to 3-4 ft. There is a potential for SCA conditions by this weekend over at least srn portions of the waters.

A low rip current risk is forecast for today, as nearshore waves remain minimal. An elevated rip current risk is possible for Thu and Fri, with increasing onshore flow and building waves.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.