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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 322 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Rain with a chance of tstms, then rain late. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. Rain early in the morning, then a chance of rain late in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Wed..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ600 322 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
strong cold front has cleared the waters early this morning with gusty nw winds continuing. Rain comes to an end this morning as high pressure builds in from the west to start the week. Improved boating conditions expected for most of the week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 111139 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 639 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be centered over the region for most of this week, bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 645 AM EST Monday...

Cold front is well off the coast with much colder air in place.
Temperatures are about 20-30 degrees F colder than yesterday morning. Most of the snow has come to an end, but there may be a few flurries across the peninsulas through sunrise. Light rain will continue for the Eastern Shore through 10 AM this morning, not expecting snow east of the bay. Most area from the Richmond metro north and northeast received a coating of snow to around 1 inch. Temperatures remain near or just above freeze, therefore, not expecting impacts to the roads. Most of the snow left on the ground will likely melt later this morning.
Temperatures will be seasonal today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 500 AM EST Monday...

High pressure will remain centered over the region with a zonal flow aloft, bringing clear and dry conditions. Temperatures will remain seasonal through much of this week. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and low temperatures will in the 20s and lower 30s. A secondary, and a much stronger (~1042 mb), sfc high pressure will build into region as a trough off the Northeast U.S. coast deepens.
Temperatures will remain similar and dry weather continues.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the ECMWF is dry with the low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon. Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun.
Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM EST Monday...

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through the rest of the night, then conditions improve later this morning.
Rounds of rain will continue through the rest of the night behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be likely in any steadier rain. Winds behind the front are out of the NW and at 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is expected as well into early tonight at ECG. As the storm system moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z).
Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected today. NW winds will gradually subside through the day.

Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EST Monday...

The surface cold front has cleared the local waters early this morning. Winds have turned NW ~30 kt with gusts around 40 kt behind the boundary. Waves in the bay are 3-6 ft with seas offshore 6-9 ft.

NW winds 25-35 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt will continue for a few more hours, especially near and south of the mouth of the Ches Bay.
Winds slowly decrease through the morning with Gale Warnings coming to an end by this afternoon. Will need to issue SCA headlines for late morning into the afternoon/evening as winds average 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds fall below SCA thresholds in the bay by early tonight but 5+ ft seas will linger offshore into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the region today and lingers into mid week before another stronger (~1040mb) high moves in behind a dry frontal passage. Winds will increase behind this front with a period of SCA conditions possible Wednesday night. Seas could rise above 5 ft for the southern Atlantic waters during this timeframe as well. High pressure lingers through the end of the week with models disagreeing substantially regarding the potential for another area of low pressure this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654-656.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ632>634-638- 658.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637.

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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     4.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:29 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:09 PM EST     3.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia, Tide feet

Upshur Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     5.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:39 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:29 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:23 PM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia, Tide feet

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