Nassawadox, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nassawadox, VA

May 15, 2024 12:33 PM EDT (16:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM
Moonrise 11:42 AM   Moonset 1:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 958 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .

Rest of today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw this afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Wave detail: se 6 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.

Tonight - NW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers early in the evening.

Thu - NW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds and N 2 ft at 2 seconds.

Thu night - N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds.

Fri - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds.

Fri night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft.

Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Showers likely.

Sun - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers.

Sun night - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ600 958 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system tracks along the coast today. That same low pressure system then lingers just offshore into Thursday, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nassawadox, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 151605 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1205 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms continue today, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. Mainly dry conditions prevail Thursday through Friday afternoon, but showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1155 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated/widely scattered showers for most of the area this aftn/evening.

- Any thunderstorms are likely to stay confined to NE NC and fat southern VA from late aftn into the evening.

- Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s across the northern 1/2 of the area due to low cloud cover, while it will warm to the upper 70s/ near 80 degrees F along the Albemarle Sound in NE NC.

Sfc low pressure has deepened to near 1000 mb and is now located off the MD coast (just to the ESE of Ocean City). A trough aloft is still to our west (over the OH/TN Valley), with SW flow aloft over the local area. Mainly just spotty light showers or drizzle across the region as of the noon hour, with temperatures mostly in the 60s under low clouds. It is into the lower 70s across portions of NE NC with variably cloudy skies, and through the aftn, as the sfc low moves farther offshore, expect to see ML CAPE values to around 500 J/Kg over NE NC and perhaps into far southern VA near the NC border. In addition, we will see cooling temps aloft as the upper trough approaches so additional showers are expected later this aftn and evening, with the highest PoPs over the S. PoPs rise to 40-60% across the S/SW, with 20-40% elsewhere by late aftn.

The sfc low will likely linger off the DE/NJ coast tonight, with widespread low cloud cover expected but with mainly dry wx after 10- 11 PM (as lingering showers/tstms dissipate with the loss of daytime heating). Lows generally in the upper 50s-60F.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist. Mainly dry Friday.

The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s- 60F with dry wx expected.

Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure briefly move over the area on Friday before moving offshore Friday evening. The flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out near 80F inland. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and especially over the weekend.

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from Saturday through Saturday night, with at least scattered showers possible on Sunday.

- Dry weather returns early next week.

Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another low pressure system approaches from the WSW. Scattered showers are possible Saturday morning (especially W), with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms likely from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Not sure how much severe wx we get, but locally heavy rain/localized flooding is definitely a possibility. PWs will once again rise to 1.7-1.8" on Saturday as the system arrives. In addition, the EPS has a 30-50% chc of at least 1" of rain across the area from Saturday through Saturday night. Lingering showers are possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend, and Sunday will likely be the coolest day of the period (it may struggle to get out of the 60s across parts of the area). Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps warming to slightly above average.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday...

IFR CIGs prevail at all terminals except for ORF/ECG where it is borderline MVFR/IFR. IFR CIGs should prevail through late morning-midday before improving to MVFR at all sites except SBY (which will likely remain IFR through the period). Could even see a period of VFR this aftn at ECG. Drizzle with MVFR VSBYs is possible this morning at RIC/SBY before dissipating. Additional showers are possible this aftn/evening (though they will likely be light), with a slight chc of a tstm at ECG. CIGs fall back to MVFR at all sites this evening-tonight with a period or two of IFR possible at RIC overnight.

Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday and Friday (though low clouds may prevail at SBY through much of Thu).
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.

MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure tracks through the waters this morning. Small craft advisories remain in effect.

- Elevated winds may continue into Thursday as low pressure meanders offshore. Additional SCAs may be necessary.

- Lighter winds finally return for Friday/Saturday.

Active wx on the marine front this morning with 1005 mb low pressure centered just W of the lower Chesapeake Bay. An area of enhanced winds was observed over the past few hrs w/ several gusts to 35-40 kt. However, winds have decreased some and are generally in the 15- 25 kt w/ gusts to 30 kt. The wind direction has turned southerly S of the NC/VA border, is southeasterly over the srn waters and lower bay, and is easterly across the N. Seas range from 6 ft S to 3 ft N.
Waves are elevated in the 3-5 ft range, but should begin dropping off soon. The low will move NE and cross the waters through the rest of this morning. Winds across the nrn waters will become NE and then N this afternoon, and similarly across the srn waters this evening.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for all marine zones, though made some tweaks based on recent observational trends of the low moving a little faster. Will drop the Currituck Sound SCA within the hour and will drop the upper rivers and upper bay a little sooner than previously indicated. Elevated seas persist through most of Thursday so have extended the SCA N of Parramore Island through most Thursday where confidence is highest in higher seas persisting.
Regarding winds, there is a good deal of uncertainty regarding the positioning of the low offshore tonight into Thursday with a closer low leading to a continuation of the elevated winds. Winds have generally increased compared to the previous cycle and N winds 15-20 kt w/ gusts to 25 kt are now forecast over the most of the marine area (exception being coastal waters S of the NC/VA border, Currituck Sound, and the upper rivers) tonight through most of Thursday. Additional SCAs may need to be issued later today with the highest confidence in the Chesapeake Bay. These winds may keep seas elevated above 5 ft (especially N) and SCAs may require further extensions here.

Lighter (~10 kt) northeast or east winds are expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. Seas also likely drop to 3-4 ft. Another low pressure system crosses the area Sunday with winds potentially increasing again. Model guidance differs with respect to the position of the low. The 00z ECMWF solution favors a prolonged period of N-NE flow Sunday through Monday as the low tracks just to our S. The GFS tracks the low to our N, keeping winds mainly southerly. Will lean towards the ECMWF solution in the forecast, but will continue to monitor.

HYDROLOGY
As of 1145 AM EDT Wednesday...

Have added Flood Warnings for Rawlings and Stony Creek along the Nottoway river for minor flooding expected to begin this evening and lasting into Fri (late Fri/early Sat at Stony Creek).

The Flood Warning for Allen Creek near Boydton remains in effect, and that point should fall below flood stage later today.
The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville will very likely exceed minor flood stage this evening-tonight, as the Meherrin near South Hill is cresting above 26 ft. Went ahead and issued a Flood Warning for Lawrenceville.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...

Minor flooding is possible with this morning's high tide cycle along the southern shore of the tidal Potomac (mainly for Lewisetta) given the elevated easterly winds. Nuisance flooding may extend further S towards Windmill Point and along the Rappahannock. Coastal flood advisories/statements are in effect here through mid- morning.

Also, issued a coastal flood advisory a few hrs ago for areas adjacent to the Currituck Sound and Bay Bay in VA Beach given rising water levels. However, recent data shows falling water levels and may be able to cancel the advisory sooner here.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi46 min 63°F 65°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi64 min NW 22G27 29.71
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi46 min 64°F 65°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 31 mi34 min NNW 16G19 61°F 66°F4 ft
44072 32 mi34 min NW 9.7G14 64°F 1 ft
44089 32 mi38 min 58°F7 ft
CHBV2 32 mi46 min 63°F
44064 34 mi34 min WNW 18G21 63°F 66°F2 ft
44087 34 mi38 min 66°F2 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 34 mi38 min 61°F5 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi46 min 65°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi46 min 65°F 68°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 43 mi46 min 66°F
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 45 mi46 min 68°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi46 min 67°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi46 min 65°F


Wind History for Wachapreague, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA 17 sm24 hrsNNW 06G1710 smOvercast29.66
Link to 5 minute data for KMFV


Wind History from MFV
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
   
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
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Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:41 AM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:14 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:29 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:22 PM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
3.1
1
am
3.7
2
am
4.1
3
am
4.2
4
am
3.8
5
am
3
6
am
2.3
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.1
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.9
11
am
1.3
12
pm
2
1
pm
2.7
2
pm
3.4
3
pm
3.8
4
pm
3.8
5
pm
3.3
6
pm
2.6
7
pm
2
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
1.3
11
pm
1.7


Tide / Current for Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia
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Upshur Neck
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Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:43 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:43 PM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:51 PM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
3
1
am
3.6
2
am
4.1
3
am
4.3
4
am
4
5
am
3.4
6
am
2.6
7
am
1.9
8
am
1.4
9
am
1
10
am
0.9
11
am
1.2
12
pm
1.8
1
pm
2.5
2
pm
3.3
3
pm
3.8
4
pm
3.9
5
pm
3.6
6
pm
2.9
7
pm
2.4
8
pm
1.9
9
pm
1.5
10
pm
1.4
11
pm
1.6


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Wakefield, VA,




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