Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pamplin City, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 10:29 AM EST (15:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 5:30AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pamplin City, VA
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location: 37.4, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 101432 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 932 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front is approaching the Mid-Atlantic region early Tuesday morning and will traverse through the region throughout the day. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the front Tuesday night before moving off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday. Another storm system will impact the region for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 932 AM EST Tuesday .

A cold front entering the western mountains this morning will move east this afternoon into tonight. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front pushing air into our region. Rain will be our primary PTYPE today, until post frontal cold air advects into the west this afternoon into tonight. This will result in a transition of rain to snow starting first in the western mountains, then spreading east with time across forecast area. Current forecast snow amounts looked good. Modified temperatures utilizing the latest surface obs, their trend and blend in the NBM for late morning into this afternoon. Want to review 12z run of models before making adjustments in tonight forecast.

As of 445 AM EST Tuesday .

Today's cold front is currently situated just west of the VA boot tip pulling behind it much cooler air as well as with a notable pocket of warm air advection just ahead of it. Rain guidance for today has not changed much on the front end of this system: we are already seeing light showers along the western slopes and parts of the Mountain Empire. As we go through this morning, those showers will increase somewhat in intensity and move further east as the front pushes through. Guidance places the leading edge of the front through central VA and NC by noon. This means that a majority of our rain for today and tonight is going to be post frontal.

The main change that has come with the forecast with this system is the change in end timing, having sped it up. Because of this: our snow amounts going into Wednesday morning have dropped slightly, mainly for parts of the western slopes. Cold air certainly will still over-run rain soon enough to create a change over, but the now faster guidance means that snowfall time will be shorter with moisture quickly running out near sunrise Wednesday. Placing amounts to locations, the western slopes will see amounts generally around 1-2" with still a few areas locally up to ~3". Most other areas from the Blue Ridge west will be ~1", but locally higher amounts for higher elevations like around Mountain Lake. Some snowfall is possible east of the Blue Ridge, but temperatures before the limited change over window will be relatively warm . so little or no accumulation from the foothills and down into the Piedmont.

Another notable change with guidance in the short term is the introduction of some freezing rain for high elevation areas, mainly in the Mountain Empire region. Warm air aloft should impact precip type early on in the change over, bringing some possible light accumulations. That mentioned, collaboration with neighboring offices brought the agreement of no advisory criteria with this as any accumulation would be on elevated surfaces as roads and sidewalks would not experience any accumulation.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Tuesday .

Lingering precipitation behind frontal boundary will rapidly taper off from west to east Wednesday morning with some wet flakes making it a bit east of the Blue Ridge as precipitation ends. A large area of high pressure will then build in from the midwest with quiet weather across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through Thursday.

As the center of the high pushes off to the northeast it will wedge firmly down east of the mountains and maintain this position through the end of the week. The pool of cold air in the wedge will combine with a developing coastal low to bring some mixed precipitation to the region Thursday night into Friday. Expect some light snow/sleet at the onset before daybreak Friday with a transition to freezing rain shortly thereafter. With the coastal low pushing a good amount of precipitation over the wedge, expect most locations will see a decent glaze of ice by Friday morning, with a gradual transition to plain rain Friday afternoon though pockets of freezing rain will likely linger for a bit longer. May see ice accumulations of one to two tenths but this is a complicated situation and expect many of the fine details to change/evolve over the next few days so definitely worth keeping a close eye on.

Temperatures will be running below normal through the period, with a trend for even cooler conditions for Friday as we sit solidly in the wedge.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 225 PM EST Monday .

Southwest surface and low level winds will warm the airmass and place the region in the warm sector into Saturday. Combination of upper diffluence, deep moisture and upslope flow into Saturday will support precipitation. ECMWF and GFS bufkit soundings have the column warm enough for only rain by Saturday. Low clouds, snow showers and upslope remain along the western slopes of the central Appalachians through Sunday.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 715 AM EST Tuesday .

Plan for a series of changing ceilings and visibilities over the current TAF period.

IFR/MVFR conditions out west from misty/fog conditions from Winston- Salem to LYH, ROA and DAN will try to lift to higher ceilings, but Roanoke and Lynchburg will take some time to improve as rain moves in this AM. Areas west for BCB, LWB, and BLF will be dealing with the current rain and low ceilings before improving this afternoon, besides BLF which will likely stay at least MVFR through the afternoon.

Tonight, rain will be transitioning over to snow for sites east to ROA. During the transition to snow, both ceilings and visibilities will be affected. Areas east at LYH and DAN will likely not experience this change over and remain with rain through the period. However, heavier rain will again drop ceilings and potentially impact visibilities some.

Conditions start to improve tomorrow morning after the snow and rain, slightly before 12Z.

Forecast confidence is medium.

Extended Aviation Discussion.

A transition to VFR is expected Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, followed by poor flying conditions again for Friday and into the weekend as low pressure envelops the southeast CONUS. There is also the potential for this system to produce freezing rain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Friday. Sub-VFR is possible on Saturday with precipitation and clouds.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VA . None. NC . None. WV . None.

SYNOPSIS . KK/RR NEAR TERM . KK/RR SHORT TERM . mbS LONG TERM . AMS AVIATION . KK/RR/WP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmville, VA12 mi35 minSW 73.00 miRain58°F56°F94%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFVX

Wind History from FVX (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Tue -- 02:24 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:31 PM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:56 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.52.82.82.31.710.40.1-0.10.2122.93.33.32.92.31.610.50.1-0.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Tue -- 02:56 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:38 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:03 PM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:38 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.12.72.82.62.11.40.80.3-0-00.41.32.43.13.33.22.721.30.80.30-0

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.